demand for higher education programs - gray associates july... · 2018-09-04 · demand for higher...

Data • Insights • Strategy

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Demand For Higher Education Programs

Results through July 2018

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About Today’s Presenters

Bob AtkinsCEO

Bob Atkins - Bob led Gray’s entry into the education industry and the development of Gray’s proprietary industry databases and service offerings. He has worked with most of Gray’s education clients, consulting with CEOs and CMOs on business strategy, pricing, location selection, and program strategy.

Linda OsterlundAcademic Dean

Linda Osterlund - Dr. Linda Osterlund is currently the Academic Dean for Rueckert-Hartman College for Health Professions at Regis University. In her previous role as Vice Provost for Resource Planning, she facilitated the Program Sustainability Project for Regis University in 2017. Linda is a Licensed Marriage and Family Therapist, with a PhD in Counselor Education and Supervision, and minor in Applied Statistics and Research Methods.

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Who Is Gray?

Program and MarketEvaluation Data

Employment

Placement Rates

Student Demand

DemographicsWages

Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation System§ Program profiles§ Program location

§ Market selection§ Location selection§ Campus consolidation

§ Price elasticity§ Price positioning§ Price optimization

§ Business strategy § Strategy implementation§ Complex analytics

Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition

Employer Requirements

Program Economics

New

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§ Inquiries- National- Online & On-Campus- Program, Degree, & City

§ Google Search Trends- Programs- Brands- Growth and Decline

§ Program Sustainability- Gray Perspective

§ Regis Case Study on Program Sustainability

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§ We started tracking Inquiries in 2012 and Google search volumes in September 2016.§ In our webinars, we share data for the last three years.

Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

Gray has tracked demand for several years.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2016 2017 2018

Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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§ May volume rose 4% year-over-year.§ June volume rose 1% year-over-year.§ July volume rose 3% year-over-year.

Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

Inquiry volumes have increased year-over-year for the past 4 months.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000


National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018


+ 3%

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§ Conversions for May and June are on track to beat 2017.

Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For April 2018 inquiries, total conversions rose 2% year-over-year.

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000


Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels

2016 2017 2018

1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries are received.

Immature Months1


+2% YoY

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§ Month over month, July prices continued to fall from May’s high of $49.47 to $46.31.§ Year-over-year prices rose 2.4%, but are at their lowest level since November 2017.

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

For 16 of the past 17 months, the average price per inquiry has risen year-over-year.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016 $45.1 $45.9 $44.7 $44.8 $42.4 $44.9 $44.3 $44.5 $45.1 $44.7 $44.8 $45.42017 $45.3 $45.2 $45.5 $45.3 $45.5 $45.7 $45.2 $44.5 $45.0 $46.0 $45.9 $46.72018 $47.1 46.56 46.33 47.35 49.47 48.85 46.31 - - - - -

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels

+2.4% YoY

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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Inquiries for Online Programs

Inquiries for online programs grew 11% year-over-year in July.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018


+11%

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Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

In July, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 11% year-over-year.

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2016 2017 2018


-11% YoY

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The Big 5 Programs: July Growth Year-over-Year

After growing in May and June, Medical Assistant fell 24% year-over-year in July.

15%

8%

-1%

-24%

-1%

-30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

10% 15% 20%

Healthcare Administration

Criminal Justice Registered Nursing Medical Assistant Business Administration

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in July Inquiries


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The Fast 5 Programs:The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

Only Public Administration grew above 50% year-over-year in July.

70%

39%

22% 20% 16%

0%

50%

100%

Public Administration

Healthcare Administration

Web/Digital Design Graphic Design Medical Insurance Coding

The Fast 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in July Inquiries

§ In June 2018, all of the Fast 5 grew by at least 50%.

1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.


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§ Overall, higher level degrees are outperforming.

Inquiry Volumes by Degree: Year-Over-Year Change

Interest in certificates appears to be highly volatile.

2%

5%

16%

21%

-41%

56%

-4%

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Doctor's degree

Post-master's certificate

Postbaccalaureate certificate

Undergraduate certificate

Change in InquiriesJuly YoY


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Online Inquiries: Year-over-Year Inquires by State

Year-over-year, July inquiries grew fastest in Wisconsin, North Dakota, Oregon, New Mexico, Arkansas, and Kansas.


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Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

In July 2018, inquiries increased in all of The Big 5 Cities.

§ Los Angeles increased the most: 25%.

-14%

-22%

-15%

-8%

-21%

8% 13%

4%

25% 22%

-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

10% 15% 20% 25%

Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Houston, TX

Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in July Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change 2018 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

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§ Gray tracks search volume for the 200 largest higher education programs. - In 2016, these programs produced 67% of all completions.- We track approximately 25 keywords for each program.

Google Search Trends: Programs

After eight months of year-over-year declines, Gray’s Google search index rose 1% in July.

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000


Google Searches200 Largest Programs* 2016 2017 2018

*Google Searches for 25 keywords for each of the 200 largest programs based on IPEDS completions

+1%

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§ Gray tracks search volume for a sample of 75 higher-education brands.§ Through July 2018, brand searches have fallen an average of 5%.

Google Search Trends (Brands)

The year-over-year decline in Google brand searches slowed to 2% in July.

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000


Google Searches75 Brands 2016 2017 2018

Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for 75 Brands.

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Shrinking Programs

Google searches are falling fast for Teaching and Hospitality programs.

-68%

-45%

-43%

-34%

-34%

-28%

-27%

-23%

-80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%

Hotel/Motel Administration/Management

Education, General

Hospitality Administration/Management, General

Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science, General

Criminal Justice/Safety Studies

Elementary Education and Teaching

Chemistry, General

Teacher Education, Multiple Levels

Fastest-declining ProgramsJuly Google Searches

Teaching

Hospitality

Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 IPEDS Programs.

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§ Harvard University is the only school new school on the list.

Fastest-growing Brands

In our sample of 75, the fastest-growing brands include very different schools.

6%

7%

11%

12%

12%

15%

17%

18%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

University of Kansas

Harvard University

College for America, SNHU

Florida Career College

University of Wyoming

Western Governors University

West Coast University

Universal Technical Institute

Fastest-growing BrandsGoogle Searches

Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 IPEDS Programs.

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Program Sustainability: An Integrated View

We envision four foundations of program sustainability.

Program Economics

Institutional Mission

Academic Standards

Program Markets

Foundations of Program Sustainability

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Let’s briefly review best practices in market analysis.

Program Economics


Academic Standards

Program Markets


Program ScoringWe suggest using four categories of market data.

StudentDemand

Employment

DegreeFit

CompetitiveIntensity

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Program Markets: Program Scorecard

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A heathy program meets institutional, academic, financial, and market requirements.

Program Economics


Academic Standards

Program Markets


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Program Economics: MethodologyAccumulate student revenue and instructor cost per credit hour by course.

-

+

} = Program Cost and Revenue

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Economic ScorecardThe Economic Scorecard includes comparisons to the college’s other programs.

§ Metrics per SCH enable apples to apples comparisons with other programs.§ The color coding shows the program’s rank vs. other programs at the college.

Nursing Program ContributionCommunity College

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Now, Let’s turn it over to Linda, who will show how Regis integrated all four elements.

Program Economics


Academic Standards

Program Markets


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Office of the Provost

Goal:

Tooptimizetheportfolioofprogramsandinformresourceallocationforshort-termandlong-termstrategicplanning.

Strategy:

Ø Facultyengagementwascritical;RegisUniversityAcademicCouncil(RUAC),composedofcollegerepresentatives.

Ø ProgramsarecategorizedasGROW,SUSTAIN,orINTERVENEbasedontheprocessbelow.

Process:

Ø Universityanalyticsandreporting(UAR)provideddatatoeachprogramforevaluation.Theprogramreviewedthedataandprovidedcommentarytogivecontext.Theprogramalsoprovideda300wordstatementonthemissionandstrategicfitoftheprogram.

Ø RUACevaluatedtheinformationandprovidedrecommendationstoProvost.TheProvostandDean’sreviewedtherecommendationsandsoughtfacultyinputtocreateprogrampriorities.

Outcome:

Programprioritiesinformuniversitystrategicplanningtoresourceprogramsaccordingtotheirpotentialforgrowth,necessarysustainability,orneedforintervention,eithertoclosetheprogramorcontinueasasustainableprograminthecurrentportfolio.

RegisUniversity’sProgramSustainabilityProject

ProgramSustainabilityDecision-MakingMatrix

Intervene• LowValue• Low/NoGrowth

GROW•HighValue• HighGrowth

SUSTAIN• HighValue• LowGrowth

START• HighPotentialValue

• HighPotentialGrowth

Requiresadditionalinvestment

Opportunitytoreallocatefunding


1) MissionandInstitutionalFit2) AssessmentofTrends3) RelevanceandDemand

4) StudentSuccessIndicators5) ResourceEfficiency

5KeyPerformanceCriteria


ProgramSustainabilityReportOffice of the Provost


Student Demand (-5 to +22)

33%

Competitive Intensity

(-14 to +2233%

Employment(-18 to +20)

27%

Degree Fit(-50 to +10)

15%

ComputerScience3YearCreditHoursTrend

CC&IS


CompetitiveAnalysisforComputerScience

CC&IS


SampleRegisUniversityAcademicCouncil(RUAC)DashboardScreenshot

CC&IS


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SummaryProgram Review should address all four foundations of Program Sustainability

Program Economics


Academic Standards

Program Markets






Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webcast

September Webcast (August Results)Thursday, September 20th at 2:00 PM ET

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demand for higher education programs - gray associates july... · 2018-09-04 · demand for higher...

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