2016 may grayreports - demand trends in higher education

GRAYREPORTS Demand for Higher Education Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through May 2016

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2

GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]

Who Is Gray?

GrayData

Employment BLS/O*NET

Placement Rates Gray Research

Student Inquiries GrayReports

Demographics US Census

Job Postings CEB TalentNeuron

Students Programs Strategy Locations §  Segment selection §  Price elasticity §  Market share

§  City targeting §  Location selection §  Consolidation

§  Program selection §  Program development §  Market reports

§  Business strategy §  Strategy implementation §  Pricing

Advanced Analytics Predictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition IPEDS+

Program Evaluation System

§  Custom Scoring

§  Scorecards

-  By Program

-  By Market

-  100+ Markets

-  1,000+ Programs

Enhanced Crosswalks



What Is GrayReports?

GrayReports tracks demand for higher education. §  Today’s webinar and monthly industry trend reports are free. §  Paid subscribers have online access to detailed data for their programs and markets.

Over 45 million qualified inquiries January 2012 to the present

Over 700,000 new inquiries in May 2016 Nearly 200 programs with over 10,000 inquiries Over 700 metro areas with over 10,000 inquiries



Agenda

1.  National Inquiry and Conversion Trends

2.  Inquiries and Conversions: Online vs. On-Campus Programs

3.  Views by Program and Segment

4.  CEB TalentNeuron

5.  Summary



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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016

Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

Overall inquiry volumes have dropped every month in 2016.



-

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Overall inquiry volumes have dropped every month in 2016. §  The average monthly decline has been 11%.

-11%



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Overall inquiry volumes for higher education have been sinking 11% year-over-year. §  Inquiries have decreased every month in 2016. §  This month is in-line with the average monthly drop of 11%.

-11% YoY



Branded Inquiries

Branded inquiry volumes have been volatile in 2016.

0

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National Branded Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016



Branded Inquiries

Branded inquiry volumes have been volatile in 2016. §  In January and February, they rose 4% year-over-year.

0

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+4%



Branded Inquiries

Branded inquiry volumes have been volatile in 2016. §  In January and February, they rose 4% year-over-year. §  In March and April, they fell 10% year over year.

0

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+4% -10%



Branded Inquiries

Branded inquiry volumes have been volatile in 2016. §  In January and February, they rose 4% year-over-year. §  In March and April, they fell 10% year over year. §  In May, they inched up 4%.

0

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+4% YoY

+4% -10%



External Inquiries: Overall Results

External inquiries have fallen every month this year, by an average of 13% year-over-year.

0

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National External Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016

-13%



External Inquiries: Overall Results

External inquiries have fallen every month this year, by an average of 13% year-over-year. §  In May, external inquiries crashed 16%. §  This was the lowest monthly volume in 2016.

0

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National External Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016

-16% YoY



Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2014 and 2015, conversion rates were volatile. §  Since Q1 2014, quarterly rates have risen as little as 0% and as much as 20%.

80

85

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105

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115

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125

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Jan-16 Feb-16

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends (Indexed to Q1 2014)

1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2.  Total includes unknown source type.

+11%

+20%

+0%



Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2014 and 2015, conversion rates were volatile. §  Since Q1 2014, quarterly rates have risen as much as 20%. §  Since Q4 2015, results have been more stable and consistent with Q1 2014.

80

85

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125

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Jan-16 Feb-16

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends (Indexed to Q1 2014)


2.  Total includes unknown source type.

0 to 5%



Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For February inquiries, total student conversions inched down 3% year-over-year. §  This came in close to last year’s number and is better than the decline we saw in January. §  Conversions of March inquiries have a lot of ground to make up to reach last year’s levels.


0 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000


Total Inquiry Conversions All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-3% YoY



Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For February inquiries, total student conversions inched down 3% year-over-year. §  This came in close to last year’s number and is better than the decline we saw in January. §  Conversions of March inquiries have a lot of ground to make up to reach last year’s levels.


0 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000


Total Inquiry Conversions All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-3% YoY

Immature Months1



Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

The price of an external inquiry decreased 3% year-over-year. §  This was the first decrease in the average price in 2016.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 $41.72 $41.81 $41.70 $42.45 $40.94 $44.23 $44.25 $44.00 $45.34 $45.43 $44.79 $42.18 2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75 2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.89 $42.70

$30 $32 $34 $36 $38 $40 $42 $44 $46 $48

Average Price per Inquiry for PPI All Programs and Award Levels

+3%

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.



Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 $41.72 $41.81 $41.70 $42.45 $40.94 $44.23 $44.25 $44.00 $45.34 $45.43 $44.79 $42.18 2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75 2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.89 $42.70

$30 $32 $34 $36 $38 $40 $42 $44 $46 $48

Average Price per Inquiry for PPI All Programs and Award Levels

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

The price of an external inquiry decreased 3% year-over-year and 5% month-over-month. §  This was the first decrease in the average price in 2016.

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.

-3%



Agenda





5.  Summary



Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change Inquiries for online programs have been falling an average of 8% year-over-year.

0

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Inquiries

Inquiries for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016 -8%



Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change Inquiries for online programs have risen month-over-month for three months.

0

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Inquiries


2014 2015 2016



Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change In May, inquiries for online programs finally beat 2015, by 3% year-over-year .

0

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Inquiries


2014 2015 2016

+3% YoY



Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs

Conversions for online programs fell 9% in February. §  This was the second consecutive decline after a five month streak of conversion growth.

─  However, conversions of March inquiries look like they will pass year-before levels.

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

10,000


Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

Immature Months1

-9% YoY 1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.



Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

Student inquiries for on-campus higher education programs dropped 11% year-over-year. §  All five months so far in 2016 have fallen below year-ago and 2014 levels. §  Four of the five months, including May, have seen double-digit percentage decreases year-over-year.

2012

0 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-11% YoY 1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.



Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs

Conversions for on-campus programs continued to decline—down 22% YoY in February. §  Inquiries from the past three months look more promising to reach last year’s conversion levels.

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-22% YOY Immature Months1

1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.



Agenda





5.  Summary



The Big 5 Programs: May Growth

Only one of The Big Five programs grew in May. §  Registered Nursing grew 17% year-over-year. §  Criminal Justice/Police Science was flat. §  Medical Assistant and Administrative Assistant continued to fall.

17%

0%

-16% -19%

-24% -30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Registered Nursing (ADN, BSN)

Criminal Justice

Business Admin: Associate

Business Admin: Bachelors+

Medical Assistant

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in May Inquiries

2016 YoY % Change



0%

52% 63%

484%

100% 86% 84% 65%

-50%

50%

150%

250%

350%

450%

550%

Psychology Counseling

Welding Computer Programming

Music General

Health Information/ Medical Records

The Fast 5 Year-over-Year Change in May Inquiries

2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change

The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

Two new programs showed up in the five fastest growing programs. §  Counseling Psychology grabbed the top spot2 .

§  The other four programs grew more than 65% in May.

1.  Includes only the top 75 programs (ranked on total inquiry volume since January 2012).

2.  May reflect competitive marketing, or reporting by Gray’s data suppliers.



The Fast 5 Programs: Change in New Job Postings

Student Demand and job growth are often out of synch.

7%

-22%

0%

-14%

8%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

Counseling Psychology Welding Computer Programming Music, General Health Information/Medical Records

The Fast 5 Year-over-Year Change in New Job Postings

April to March



Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

Only one of The Big 5 cities grew year-over-year. §  Philadelphia grew 2% in May. §  Once again, Chicago had the largest decline.

-24%

-14%

-29%

-12%

-29%

2%

-15%

-21%

-31% -35% -40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Atlanta, GA Chicago, IL

Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in May Inquiries

2015 YoY % Change2 2016 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.



Registered Nursing in Philadelphia



Top Programs in Philadelphia



Computer Support Specialist: Most Frequently Requested Skills

United States C/C++ Microsoft Windows Azure Graphical User Interface design Multilingual Maintenance repairs HP Service Manager Reverse logistics Microsoft Hyper-V Server VMware vSphere Amazon Web Services ServiceNow Time and attendance Unit testing Software as a Service Oracle Solaris N-tier application architecture Barcode Pharmacy Benefit Management Claims processing administration and management Microsoft SQL Server Reporting Services Bilingual Requirements gathering Production support Functional specifications Lightweight Directory Access Protocol System architecture PBX telephone exchange

Philadelphia Bilingual Systems Development Life Cycle Cloud Computing ServiceNow Atlassian JIRA Web services Software as a Service Microsoft Office Visio JavaScript IBM Lotus Notes Python Business Systems System administration Technical support Microsoft Forefront VMware vSphere RIM Blackberry Practical Extraction and Reporting Language PBX telephone exchange Relational Database Management System Business insights Salesforce CRM SFDC C-sharp Enterprise Resource Planning Software Systems Integration Wide Area Network Hypertext markup language

Source: CEB TalentNeuron



-33%

-25%

-14%

-10%

-9%

-6%

-4%

-3%

1%

6%

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10%

Unknown Degree Associate's External Certificate Campus Branded Online Doctorate Master's Bachelor's

Quarterly Change in Inquiries 2014/2015 vs. 2015/2016 (March – May)

Inquiry Volumes by Category – Trailing 3 Months

Quarterly inquiries for higher-level degrees continued to grow. §  Doctorate inquiries are the only exception as they were down 3%. §  Once again, internal inquiries declined. §  For the quarter, both on-campus and online programs fell.



Inquiry Volumes by Channel - Trailing 3 Months

For the most part, branded inquiry channels outperformed external inquiries. §  Social Media continued to be the fastest-growing channel. §  Three different branded inquiry channels grew in May. §  Unlike recent months an external channel grew year-over-year for this time period.

-72% -42% -42%

-33% -15% -14% -14%

-11% -8%

-6% 3% 5%

26% 42%

54%

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Display: Branded Offline Media: Branded Email: Branded Referral: Branded Affiliate: External All Other Internal: Branded PPL: External PPC: Branded Inbound Phone: Branded Interactive: Branded Website: Branded Affiliate - PPC: External PPC - Inbound Call: Branded Organic: Branded Social Media: Branded

Quarterly Change in Inquiries by Channel All Programs and Award Levels

(March – May, YoY)



Agenda





5.  Summary

CEB TalentNeuron™

39

Who We Are

40

What Is TalentNeuron Recruit?

Data Warehouse: 1+ Billion "Talent Records"

Data from Parker Spiders passes through the "Puller" systems to

ensure consistency of data quality and to supplement data from websites with third-‐party

enhancements (BLS, US Census).

"Parker" is a scalable system designed to create, test, and deploy thousands of soKware spiders to collect specific data elements from diverse job

boards and corporate websites.

Models calculate Hiring Scale, Average PosRng DuraRon, Year-‐Over-‐Year Volumes, Hiring Spikes and many, many other metrics using state-‐of-‐the-‐art servers

and technologies.

SaaS: AnalyRcs dashboard. Public API: Talent

Management plaWorms / job boards. Customized Report

Scheduler to generate daily or weekly feeds.

"Parker" Data Acquisi0on

"Puller" Data Transforma0on

"Delivery" Online web interface

"Tolkien" Product Crea0on

Distribute to Thousands of Users per Day

Serve On-‐Demand, Real-‐Time Analysis

Filter 40 Mil. Records / Week to 17 Mil. Clean Records

Aggregate from 25,000 Sources of Data

41

How Education Clients Use Our Data

•  Dozens of colleges, university and for profit education corporations utilize our real time labor data to mark smarter, faster decisions

•  The analytics platform is used by Curriculum Developers to help determine

that Skills and Certifications most in demand by Employers in the area

•  Counselors use analytics to match students skills, certifications and desired job titles to see what employers are hiring, by location, and if students need to “skill up” based on employer’s most requested skills

•  Analyzing growing employer demand, by occupations, allows educational entities the ability to evaluate where to expand campus locations or open up new campuses

•  The use of TalentNeuron’s API or data feed matches student’s skills and certifications to available job postings within the college or universities student portal

42

TalentNeuron API - Matching Students to Careers

Within the Pearson/Acclaim student portal, once professional skills or “badges” are earned, students can click the skill tags that they’ve achieved and quickly see where their career could go by viewing acRve job posRngs by job Rtle, by locaRon, by Employer name and a host of other data points

43

The TalentNeuron Dashboard

View real time labor data with surgical precision - the web based platform

44

Medical Assistants in Atlanta – The Complete Demand Picture

45

Medical Assistants – View Employer Demand by Metro Area

46

University Graduates Migration Analysis



Agenda





5.  Summary



Key Demand Trends and Observations

May generally underperformed, but we finally saw some positives.

§  Inquiry volumes fell 10%. ─ On-campus down 11%

§  However, we saw some bright spots this month. ─ Branded grew 4% ─ Online grew 3%

§  Conversions of February inquiries were down 3% YoY. ─  It is too early to tell if March of 2016 will reach last year’s levels.

§  Average price reached its lowest level since 2014. §  Higher degree levels continue to outperform; Associate’s programs lag. §  Job posting data is a valuable addition to employment analysis. §  Better data and systems are available to support your decisions. ─ Where to focus your marketing—by program and market ─ What programs to Stop, Start, Sustain or Grow



Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact:

Bob Atkins CEO

Gray Associates, Inc.

[email protected] @Gray_Associates

617.366.2836



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