2017 february grayreports - demand trends in higher education

GRAYREPORTS Demand for Higher Education Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through February 2017

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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]

Who Is Gray?

Program and Market Evaluation Data

Employment

Placement Rates

Student Inquiries

Demographics

Job Postings

Programs Price Projects Place §  Program Evaluation

System §  Program profiles §  Program development

§  City targeting §  Location selection §  Campus consolidation

§  Price elasticity §  Price positioning §  Price optimization

§  Business strategy §  Strategy implementation §  Acquisition analysis §  Complex analytics

Advanced Analytics Predictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition

Enhanced Crosswalks



Agenda

1.  Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Google Searches

1.  National

2.  Online and On-Campus

3.  Degree and Channel

4.  City and Program

2.  Job Postings

3.  NHE: Benchmarking Institute

4.  Summary



Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

We will share data from 2015, 2016 and 2017. §  GrayReports covers January 2012 through the present. §  We add between 600,000 and one million qualified inquiries to the dataset each month. Introduce how to read

chart: years and colors Report Monthly to account for seasonality

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017



0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000



2015 2016 2017


In 2017, inquiries have fallen by an average of 12% year-over-year.

-12%



0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000



2015 2016 2017


In February, inquiry volumes dropped another 12%.

5% is a little worse than last month’s 1% decline, but better than this year’s average 8% decline.

-12% YoY



External Inquiries: Definition

Third party web sites attract students, who fill out inquiry forms. This inquiry data is sold to colleges.



External Inquiries: Overall Results

External (or PPL) inquiries for higher education dropped an average of 15% in 2016. §  February inquiries fell 16% year-over-year.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


National External Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017

Define External Inquiries: Inquiries from a third-party site that generates inquiries for higher education.

-16% YoY



Branded Inquiry: Definition

Branded Inquiry: When potential students search for a school by name.



Branded Inquiries

For the third consecutive month, Branded inquiries fell. §  In 2016, the average monthly growth rate for Branded inquiries was 6%. §  But, Branded inquiries shrank 1% in December, 2% in January, and 5% in February.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


National Branded Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017

-5% YoY



80 85 90 95

100 105 110 115 120 125 130

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends (Indexed to Q1 2014)

Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2016, conversion rates seemed to be stabilizing above our 2014 baseline. §  Q3 2016 was 12% above the baseline last month and improved to 14% as more Q3 inquiries converted. §  Q4 2016 is already beating the baseline by 6% and will continue to improve as it matures.

1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2.  Total includes unknown source type.

+6%



Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For November 2016 inquiries, total conversions fell 8% year-over-year. §  It now takes six months for conversions to fully mature. §  November’s 8% decline is a considerable improvement on the 16% drop in October 2016.

1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

0 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000


Total Inquiry Conversions All Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

Explain Conversion Timing: Conversions are counted in the month in which the original inquiry is received. If a June inquiry converts I August, it is counted as a June Conversion. Typically, inquires take 13 months to mature (or reach their maximum conversion rate. More recently, conversions are taking longer, sometimes 5-6 months after the inquiry.

-8% YoY Immature Months1



Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75 2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.13 $44.77 $44.89 $45.55 2017 $45.41 $45.42 $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-

$30 $32 $34 $36 $38 $40 $42 $44 $46 $48

Average Price per Inquiry for PPI All Programs and Award Levels

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

Since December, the average price of an External inquiry has been over $45. §  For the first time in four months, the average price is down year-over-year; §  But, February 2016 was the highest average price in four years.

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.

-1%



Agenda


1.  National




2.  Job Postings


4.  Summary



0

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300,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017

Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change Year-over-year, inquiries for online programs were flat in 2016.

+0.5%



0

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Inquiries

Inquiries for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017

Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change Inquiries for online programs grew 13% in February. §  Online inquiries have now increased in seven of the last eight months.

+13% YoY



Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs

Conversions for online higher education programs increased 36% in November. §  This is the fourth consecutive increase in conversions.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000


Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

+36% YoY

Immature Months1



Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs

Conversions for online higher education programs increased 36% in November. §  December and January have already passed last year’s levels and February should also.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000


Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

Immature Months1



Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

Inquiries for on-campus academic programs are in free-fall. §  2016 fell short of year-ago levels by an average of 15%. §  January inquiries for on-campus higher education programs dropped 14%. §  In February, inquiries for on-campus programs plunged 19% year-over-year.

2012

0 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-19% YoY 1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a

January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.



Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs

Conversions for on-campus programs fell 13% year-over-year in November. §  October conversions improved 2% this month, but still fell short year-over-year. §  The three immature months have a lot of ground to make up.

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-13% YOY 1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a

January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

Immature Months1



Agenda


1.  National




2.  Job Postings


4.  Summary



Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Trailing Three Months

Post-Master’s certificate continued to be the fastest-growing award. §  Associate’s degrees also increased over the past quarter (3%). §  Lower-level degrees are now outperforming more advanced degrees.

-22%

-16%

-10%

-8%

3%

151%

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180%

Master's degree

Bachelor's degree

Doctor's degree

Undergraduate certificate

Associate's degree

Post-master's certificate

Quarterly Change in Inquiries December through February YoY



Inquiry Volumes by Channel – Trailing Three Months

Once again, Affiliate – PPC was the fastest-growing channel for student inquiries. §  Five different Branded inquiry channels grew in the most recent quarter.

-72% -41% -40% -37%

-18% -17%

-9% -7% -5% -5%

2% 27% 27%

41% 82%

432%

-100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500%

PPC - Inbound Call: Branded Display: Branded Interactive: Branded PPL: External Social Media: Branded Referral: Branded Website: Branded Email: Branded All Other Internal: Branded Affiliate: External PPC: Branded Inbound Phone: Branded Organic: Branded Event: Branded Offline Media: Branded Affiliate - PPC: External

Quarterly Change in Inquiries by Channel All Programs and Award Levels

(December through February YoY) Branded External



Agenda


1.  National




2.  Job Postings


4.  Summary



The Big 5 Programs: December Growth

Inquiries for the Big Five shrank again. §  Medical Assisting performed the best, but dropped 17%. §  Registered Nursing, last month’s best performer at -9%, decreased 21%. §  Criminal Justice/Police Science was down 30%. §  The two business programs continued to drop the most, both down more than 35%.

-17% -21%

-30%

-36% -38%

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Medical Assistant Registered Nursing Criminal Justice Business Admin: Associate's -

Business Admin: Bachelor's +

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in February Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change



280%

129% 119% 114% 91%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

Human Services Accounting and Business

Counseling Psychology Medical Insurance Coding

Electrical and Electronics Engineering

The Fast 5 Programs Year-over-Year Change in February Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change

The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew more than 90%. §  At 280%, Human Services grew the fastest for the fifth consecutive month. §  Second on the list, Accounting and Business grew nearly 130%.

1.  Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.



-88%

-70% -70% -68% -60%

-100%

-50%

0%

Electrical, Electronic and Comm. Eng. Tech.

Radiologic Technology Accounting and Finance

Computer and Information Sciences,

General.

Criminal Justice/Safety Studies.

The Slow 5 Programs Year-over-Year Change in February Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change

The Slow 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Slowest Inquiry Growth

All five of the slowest-growing big programs1 shrank more than 60%. §  Electronics Engineering was a fast-growing program, but the the Technician program is shrinking. §  Criminal Justice/Safety Studies is the only new program in the “Slow 5” this month.

1.  Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.

Reference fast growing engineering on previous slide



Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

All of The Big 5 fell more than 10% year-over-year. §  Atlanta, the worst performer last month, performed the best this month.

-22%

-3%

-15%

-30% -28%

-14% -15% -16% -18%

-22%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Atlanta, GA Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Chicago, IL

Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in December Inquiries

2016 YoY % Change 2017 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.



Agenda


1.  National




2.  Job Postings


4.  Summary



Job Postings: Demand Map

Where are the top locations for jobs? Example: Human Services

MSAs (Top 5 MSA) Count % of Total Location Quotient Demand Level Index New York-Newark-Jersey City 3,217 7.2% 0.9 Average

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim 1,677 3.8% 0.9 Low

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington 1,638 3.7% 1.1 Very High

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin 1,534 3.5% 1.7 Average

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria 1,427 3.2% 1.4 High

Total (specified) 44,517

Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. SOCs used: 21-1093 Social and Human Service Assistants and 11-9151 Social and Community Service Managers (Data for 3/1/2016 to 2/28/2017)



MSAs (Top 5 MSA) Count % of Total Location Quotient Demand Level Index New York-Newark-Jersey City 3,217 7.2% 0.9 Average

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim 1,677 3.8% 0.9 Low

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington 1,638 3.7% 1.1 Very High

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin 1,534 3.5% 1.7 Average

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria 1,427 3.2% 1.4 High

Total (specified) 44,517

Job Postings: Demand Map

Where are the top locations for jobs? Example: Human Services




Job Postings: Job Titles

There is strong demand for Director-level specialists in Human Services.

Job Titles (Top 10) Count % to Total

Director of Rehabilita/on 2,677 5.2% Execu/ve Director 2,193 4.2%

Director of Social Services 1,949 3.8% Case Manager 1,098 2.1%

Social Services Assistant 709 1.4% Care Coordinator 687 1.3%

Social Services Coordinator 567 1.1% Social Worker 516 1.0%

Social Work Assistant 485 0.9% Nursing Home Administrator 421 0.8%

Total 31,030




Job Postings: Human Services Skill Clusters

The Human Services skill clusters most commonly cited are related to health care. §  37% of the job postings mentioned people management.

14%

15%

16%

23%

23%

25%

25%

28%

30%

37%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Health Care: General Medicine

Industry Knowledge: Social Services Industry Knowledge

Customer and Client Support: Basic Customer Service

Information Technology: Microsoft Office and Productivity Tools

Health Care: Medical Support

Health Care: Mental and Behavioral Health Specialties

Finance: Budget Management

Health Care: Social Work

Health Care: Advanced Patient Care

Business: People Management

Human Services Job Postings: Most-Frequently-Cited Skill Clusters

Health Care Business Finance Other




Job Postings: Human Services Education (Minimum Advertised)

Human Services job postings most frequently request Bachelor’s degrees. §  12% of the specified job postings advertised higher degrees.

17%

8%

63%

11%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

High school or vocational training

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Doctoral degree

Human Services Job Postings Most Frequently-Cited Skill Clusters




Human Services Job Postings: Employers

During the past 12 months, The Mentor Network had over 1,000 job postings.

1,116

873

468

369

345

337

310

296

280

278

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

The Mentor Network

Employer 2

Employer 3

Brookdale Senior Living

Employer 5

Golden Living Centers

Employer 7

Consulate Health Care

HCR ManorCare

Employer 10

Employers by Volume in Job Postings




Agenda


1.  National




2.  Job Postings


4.  Summary

Case Studies

Lou Guthrie National Benchmarking Institute

PHYSICAL THERAPY ASSISTANT PROGRAMFull-time Faculty SCH/Fall

SCH/ Spring

Total SCH Salary Benefits

Individual ROI

Faculty Smith 107 85 192 110,418.95$ 44,830.10$ 18.2%Faculty Jones 119 310 429 92,979.22$ 37,749.56$ 48.2%Faculty Doe 110 94 204 44,560.12$ 18,091.41$ 47.9%

Part-time FacultyNone

Totals 336 489 825 247,958.29$ 100,671.07$

SCH/FallSCH/

Spring Total SCH Salary BenefitsSalary + Benefits

Totals 336 489 825 247,958.29$ 100,671.07$ $348,629.36

Tuition SCH $147Tuition

Revenue 121,275.00$ 348,629.36$

-$ -$ -$

5,580.00$ 354,209.36$

429.34$ (232,934.36)$

34.24%Margin (Revenue - Costs) =

ROI/% Efficiency (Revenue/Costs)=

Faculty Costs

Total Costs

FT Overloads + BenefitcsClinicals

Adjunct +benefitsSupplies

Production Cost per SCH =

Criminal JusticeF-‐T Faculty SCH/FallSCH/Spring Total SCH Salary Benefits Individual ROI

Faculty 434 492 926 59,576.00$ 24,187.86$ 162.5%Faculty 312 384 696 36,210.00$ 14,701.26$ 201.0%

P-‐T Faculty Adjunct 57 57 1,650.00$ 142.23$ 467.5%Adjunct 201 216 417 7,425.00$ 640.04$ 760.1%Adjunct 84 90 174 6,600.00$ 568.92$ 356.8%

Totals 1088 1182 2270 111,461.00$ 40,240.30$

SCC Summary Data NCCBP Mean Tuition Revenue = SCH x $147.00 333,690.00$ Faculty Costs (Salary + Benefits) 151,701.30$ FT Overloads + benefits 7,008.91$ Other than Personnel (Supplies) $8,277.00

69% 31%36% 64%373 253342 38224/1 23/1

73.56$ 79.00$ 166,702.79$

199.83%

Percentage of SCH taught by FTPercentage of SCH taught by PT

SCH taught by FT facultySCH taught by PT facultyStudent Faculty RatioInstructional cost/SCH

Margin (Revenue-‐Costs) =ROI/% Efficiency (Revenue/Costs) =

Criminal Justice

Cost & Productivity/Academic Divisions Quadrants

Conclusions

§  Cost & Productivity measures are a key part of a program review

§  Cost per SCH and Student/Faculty Ratios are the measures used to examine the efficiency of programs

§  Benchmarking enhances the analysis by adding context

§  Decisions should not be made based on cost alone

§  Use analysis to balance programs/divisions, adjust teaching loads and class sizes, and make strategic decisions

Learn More about Benchmarking and Best Practices BenchmarkingInstitute.org

Maria Harper-Marinick

Michelle Asha Cooper

Randy Swing

Keep up with the Benchmarking Institute and all of our projects by joining us on LinkedIn and following us on Twitter

@EdBenchmark

Join the National Higher Education Benchmarking Institute Group

[email protected]



Agenda


1.  National




2.  Job Postings


4.  Summary



Key Demand Trends and Observations

§  Overall student inquiries are declining.

§  But, Online is continuing to grow.

─  Inquiries for online programs grew 13%

─  Conversions are growing at least 36% year-over-year

§  Rapid growth in Post-Master’s certificates continues.

§  Human services continues to be the fastest-growing program.

─  The job market for the profession is healthy.

─  63% of jobs specifying an education level request a Bachelor’s degree.

§  Gray has added new data to its services ─  Instructional Cost Index to help inform new program decisions ─  Brand Search to track the reach of your school’s brand



Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact:

Bob Atkins CEO

Gray Associates, Inc.

[email protected] @Gray_Associates

617.366.2836



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