2016 december grayreports - demand trends in higher education

GRAYREPORTS Demand for Higher Education Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through December 2016

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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]

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Program and Market Evaluation Data

Employment

Placement Rates

Student Inquiries

Demographics

Job Postings

Programs Price Projects Place §  Program portfolio

strategy §  Program profiles §  Program development

§  City targeting §  Location selection §  Campus consolidation

§  Price elasticity §  Price positioning §  Price optimization

§  Business strategy §  Strategy implementation §  Acquisition analysis §  Complex analytics

Advanced Analytics Predictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition

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Enhanced Crosswalks



Agenda

1.  Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Google Searches

1.  National

2.  Online and On-Campus

3.  Degree and Channel

4.  City and Program

2.  Job Postings

3.  Summary



Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

We will share data from 2014, 2015 and 2016. §  GrayReports covers January 2012 through the present. §  We add between 600,000 to 1 million qualified inquiries to the dataset each month. Introduce how to read

chart: years and colors

Report Monthly to account for seasonality

0

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016



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2014 2015 2016


Inquiries have decreased an average of 9% year-over-year in 2016.

•  Big declines were earlier in the year.

•  August and September were closer to last year’s results. -9%



0

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2014 2015 2016


In December, inquiry volumes decreased 15%.

5% is a little worse than last month’s 1% decline, but better than this year’s average 8% decline.

-15% YoY



Google Program Search Volumes: Overall Results

In November, Google Search volumes grew 20%.

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6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000


National Google Search Volumes* Program Keyword Data

2015 2016

20% YoY

Source: Data from Google. *Timeframe: Dec 2015 to Nov 2016. Gray currently has program search volume data for 200 CIPs.



External Inquiries: Overall Results

External (or PPL) inquiries for higher education have dropped an average of 15% in 2016. §  In December, external inquiries fell 20%.

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700,000

800,000

900,000


National External Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016

Define External Inquiries: Inquiries from a third-party site that generates inquiries for higher education.

-15%



Branded Inquiries

Branded inquiries are down for the first time in eight months. §  In 2016, the average monthly growth rate for branded inquiries was 6%. §  But, branded inquiries shrank 1% in December.

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350,000


National Branded Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016

-1% YoY

Define Branded Inquiries: Inquiries for a particular school’s brand name

There is an critical implication: if Branded inquiries become more prevalent, awareness and preference for your brand will increase in importance.

But, most institutions do not have the budget to support brand marketing. This trend may favor

1.  bigger schools with stronger brands, and more ability to fund brand marketing and football teams.

2.  Schools with well-defined niches in which they are well-known and well-regarded.



Google Brand Search Volumes: Overall Results

In November, Google Brand Search Volumes declined 1%, significantly less growth than we observed in program search volumes earlier.

0

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National Google Search Volumes* Brand Keyword Data 2015 2016

-1% YoY

Source: Data from Google. *Timeframe: Dec 2015 to Nov 2016. Gray currently has Brand search volume data for 70 Brands.



Google Brand Search Volumes: Ten Largest Brands in Nation

In 2016, University of California - Los Angeles was the most searched brand Nationally. §  Despite significant loss in enrollment over the years, University of Phoenix still made the top 5. §  The 10 largest Brands accounted for 52% of the total Gray’s Google search volumes.**

0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000

University of California - Los Angeles

Stanford University

Harvard University

University of Phoenix

Ohio State University-Main Campus

Yale University

University of Michigan-Ann Arbor

Grand Canyon University

Emory University

Ivy Tech Community College

Google Keyword Searches (Dec 2015-Nov 2016)

Ten Largest Brands in the U.S.

Source: Data from Google. ** Gray currently has Brand search volume data for 70 Brands.

Public, 4 Year

Not for Profit, 4 Year

Public, 2 Year

For Profit, 4 Year



80

85

90

95

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105

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115

120

125

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends (Indexed to Q1 2014)

Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2016, conversion rates seem to be stabilizing, close to 2014 levels. §  Q3 2016, now near maturity, is now 9% above the Q1 2014 level. §  Rates may be stabilizing 5-10% above baseline.

1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2.  Total includes unknown source type.

+9%



Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For September inquiries, total conversions fell 15% year-over-year. §  It now takes six months for conversions to fully mature, however 15% is too wide a gap to catch last year’s

levels.

1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

Immature Months1

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10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000


Total Inquiry Conversions All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

Explain Conversion Timing: Conversions are counted in the month in which the original inquiry is received. If a June inquiry converts I August, it is counted as a June Conversion.

Typically, inquires take 13 months to mature (or reach their maximum conversion rate.

More recently, conversions are taking longer, sometimes 5-6 months after the inquiry.

-15% YoY



Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 $41.72 $41.81 $41.70 $42.45 $40.94 $44.23 $44.25 $44.00 $45.34 $45.47 $44.79 $42.18 2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75 2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.13 $44.77 $44.89 $45.55

$30 $32 $34 $36 $38 $40 $42 $44 $46 $48

Average Price per Inquiry for PPI All Programs and Award Levels

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

The average price of an External inquiry had been fairly stable. §  In December the average price jumped to over $45.50, the highest price since February. §  December 2016 had the second highest average price over the past three years.

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.

+1.8%



Agenda


1.  National




2.  Job Postings

3.  Summary



0

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Inquiries

Inquiries for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change Year-to-date, inquiries for online programs are flat year-over-year.

+0.5%



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Inquiries

Inquiries for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change For the second consecutive month, inquiries for online programs grew 5%. §  Online inquiries have now increased in five of the last six months.

+5% YoY



Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs

Conversions for online higher education programs increased 5% in September. §  This is the second consecutive increase in conversions. §  October and November already passed last year’s levels and December looks as if it will as well.

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Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

Immature Months1

1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

+5% YoY



Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

The negative trend in inquiries for on-campus academic programs in higher education continues.

§  2016 has fallen short of year-ago levels by an average of 15%. §  In December, inquiries for on-campus higher-education programs dropped 19% year-over-year.

2012

0 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-19% YoY 1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.



Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs

Conversions for on-campus programs fell 13% YoY in September. §  June, July, and August each gained another 1% on last year’s levels. §  The three immature months have a lot of ground to make up in order to outperform 2015.

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-13% YOY Immature Months1

1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.



Agenda


1.  National




2.  Job Postings

3.  Summary



Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Trailing Three Months

Post-Master’s certificates continued to be the fastest-growing degree. §  All other degrees decreased, but to our surprise, lower-level degrees continue to outperform the other

advanced degrees.

-19%

-16%

-9%

-6%

-4%

74%

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Master's degree

Bachelor's degree

Doctor's degree

Undergraduate certificate

Associate's degree

Post-master's certificate

Quarterly Change in Inquiries 2016/2015 (October through December)



Inquiry Volumes by Channel – Trailing Three Months

Once again, Affiliate – PPC was the fastest-growing channel for student inquiries. §  Six different Branded inquiry channels grew in the most recent quarter.

-67% -46%

-36% -25% -20%

-10% -4% -3%

3% 11% 17%

33% 34%

44% 342%

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400%

PPC - Inbound Call: Branded Interactive: Branded PPL: External Display: Branded Email: Branded Referral: Branded PPC: Branded Affiliate: External All Other Internal: Branded Website: Branded Inbound Phone: Branded Social Media: Branded Offline Media: Branded Organic: Branded Affiliate - PPC: External

Quarterly Change in Inquiries by Channel All Programs and Award Levels

(October through December YoY)



Agenda


1.  National




2.  Job Postings

3.  Summary



The Big 5 Programs: December Growth

Inquiries for the Big Five shrank over 15%–accounting for 63% of the total decline in inquiries. §  Registered Nursing performed the best, but still dropped 17%. §  Medical Assisting decreased 25%. §  Criminal Justice/Police Science was not far behind MA, down 27%. §  The two business programs continued to drop the most, both down more than 30%.

-17%

-25% -27%

-34% -37% -40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Registered Nursing Medical Assistant Criminal Justice Business Admin: Associate's -

Business Admin: Bachelor's +

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in December Inquiries

2016 YoY % Change



Google Program Search Volumes: Ten Largest Programs in Nation

In 2016, Nursing Assistant was the most searched program nationally. §  Half of the 10 programs with the highest search volume are in the healthcare space, particularly Nursing. §  The 10 largest programs accounted for 32% of Gray’s Google search volumes.*

0 3,000,000 6,000,000

Nursing Assistant/Aide and Patient Care Assistant/Aide

Business Administration and Management, General

Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse

Medical/Clinical Assistant

Cosmetology/Cosmetologist, General

Law

Licensed Practical/Vocational Nurse Training

Accounting

Culinary Arts/Chef Training

Truck and Bus Driver/Commercial Vehicle Operator and

Google Keyword Searches (Dec 2015-Nov 2016)

Ten Largest Programs in the U.S.

Health

Other

Source: Data from Google. *Gray currently has program search volume data for about 200 CIPs.



53% 63%

-31% -12%

258%

155%

113%

77% 71%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

Human Services Medical Insurance Coding Specialist/

Coder.

Christian Studies. Organizational Behavior Studies.

Welding Technology/Welder.

The Fast 5 Programs Year-over-Year Change in December Inquiries

2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change

The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew more than 70%. §  At over 250%, Human Services grew the fastest for the third consecutive month. §  Medical Insurance Coding was also the second-fastest growing last month. §  The other three programs are new to the list.

1.  Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012. 2. May reflect competitive marketing, or reporting by Gray’s data suppliers.



Google Program Search Volumes: Five Largest States

In 2016, the most searches for programs were conducted in California (13% of Nation). §  These five largest States accounted for 40% of all searches**

0 3,000,000 6,000,000 9,000,000 12,000,000 15,000,000

California

Texas

New York

Florida

Illinois

Google Keyword Searches (Dec 2015-Nov 2016)*

Five Largest States

Source: Data from Google. *Timeframe: Dec 2015 to Nov 2016. ** Gray currently has program search volume data for about 200 CIPs.



Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

All five cities in The Big 5 decreased year-over-year. §  New York performed the best this month, but still declined 8% compared to December 2015. §  Despite the negative numbers, they are better than November’s numbers when Los Angeles, Atlanta, and

Chicago were each down more than 30%.

-13%

-8%

-22%

-6%

-20%

-8% -10%

-16%

-23% -23%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

New York, NY Philadelphia, PA Los Angeles, CA Atlanta, GA Chicago, IL

Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in December Inquiries

2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.



Job Postings: The Big 5 Cities

In 2016, four of the five cities with the highest number of job postings grew. §  Atlanta showed the most job growth, while Houston job postings dropped.

Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions that require a college degree (Associate’s or higher). Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staffing Agencies.

6%

-9%

19% 23%

15%

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

New York, NY Houston, TX San Francisco, CA Atlanta, GA Los Angeles, CA

2016 YoY Job Posting Growth Five Cities with the Most Job Postings

Source:



Agenda


1.  National




2.  Job Postings

3.  Summary



Job Postings: Predictive Power

Job postings in 2014 were a very reliable predictor of job postings in 2016.


y = 0.8761x

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2016 Job Postings

2014 Job Postings

Job Postings By 8-Digit SOC

Correlation: 0.969

Registered Nurses

Retail Salespersons

Managers, All Other Security Guards

Source:



Job Postings: Ten Largest Occupations

In 2016, Registered Nursing had the most job postings requiring a college degree. §  Half of the Top 10 occupations are manager roles. §  Heathcare and IT filled out the rest of the top 10.


0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000

Registered Nurses Managers, All Other

Computer Occupations, All Other Software Developers, Applications

Medical and Health Services Managers Sales Managers

General and Operations Managers Human Resources Specialists

Management Analysts Financial Managers

Job Postings in 2016 Ten Largest Occupations

Managers Healthcare

IT

Source:



Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Occupations

The fastest-growing occupations are dominated by healthcare and education.


0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education Pharmacists

Medical Equipment Repairers Education Administrators, Preschool and

Special Education Teachers, All Other Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists

Radiologic Technologists Chemists

Respiratory Therapists Speech-Language Pathologists

Job Postings in 2016 Ten Fastest-Growing Occupations in the U.S.

Education Healthcare

Source:



Job Postings: Most Requested Specialized Skills

Four of the 10 most requested specialized skills were for the Microsoft Office Suite. §  All of the most requested skills are related to business or administrative tasks.


0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Microsoft Excel Microsoft Office

Budgeting Scheduling

Supervisory Skills Customer Service

Project Management Microsoft Powerpoint

Sales Microsoft Word

Job Postings in 2016 Ten Most-Requested Specialized Skills in the US

Microsoft Other

Source:



Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Skill Clusters

Half of the 10 fastest-growing specialized skill clusters relate to healthcare.


0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Supply Chain and Logistics: Inventory

Health Care: Pharmacy

Finance: Cash Management

Health Care: Medical Procedure and Regulation

Health Care: Medical Records

Marketing and Public Relations: Packaging and

Administration: Office Machines

Health Care: Patient Reception

Health Care: Medical Billing and Coding

Finance: Financial Advisement

Job Postings in 2016 Ten Fastest-Growing Skill Clusters

Other

Healthcare

Source:



Job Postings: Ten Most Requested Certifications

Nationally, RN licensure was the most requested certification in 2016. §  Half of the most-requested certifications were related to an Allied Health occupation.


0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000

Registered Nurse Security Clearance

Project Management Certification (e.g., PMP) Basic Cardiac Life Support Certification

Certified Public Accountant (CPA) Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS)

Series 7 American Heart Association Certificate Cert. Info. Sys. Security. Pro. (CISSP)

Nurse Practitioner

Job Postings in 2016 Ten Most-Requested Certifications in the U.S.

Other

Healthcare

Source:



Agenda


1.  National




2.  Job Postings

3.  Summary



Key Demand Trends and Observations

§  External Inquiries continued to drop.

§  But, overall Google program search volumes increased.

§  Branded fell, but slightly, in both inquiries and search volume.

§  Inquiries and conversions for online programs are growing.

§  Inquiry growth for graduate programs has begun to decline.

§  Health Care, IT, Education, and Management dominate job postings.

§  Microsoft Office is a critical skill set.



Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact:

Bob Atkins CEO

Gray Associates, Inc.

[email protected] @Gray_Associates

617.366.2836



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