2016 january grayreports - student demand trends

GRAYREPORTS Demand for Higher Education Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through January of 2016

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2

GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]

Who Is Gray?

GrayData

Completions

Enrollment Pricing Employment BLS/O*NET

Placement Rates Gray Research

Student Inquiries GrayReports

Demographics US Census

Job Postings WANTED Analytics

Students Programs Strategy Locations §  Demographic priorities §  Geo-priorities §  Market share

§  City selection §  Location selection §  Relocation analysis §  Consolidation

§  Program selection §  Program development §  Curriculum enhancement §  Market reports

§  Business strategy §  Strategy implementation §  Pricing §  Outcome improvement

Advanced Analytics Predictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition (IPEDS)

Program Evaluation System

§  Custom Scoring

§  Scorecards

-  By Program

-  By Market

-  100+ Markets

-  1,000+ Programs



What is GrayReports?

GrayReports tracks demand for higher education. §  Today’s webinar and monthly industry trend reports are free. §  Paid subscribers receive custom monthly reports for their markets and programs. §  Paid subscribers also have online access to detailed data for their programs and markets.

Over 44 million qualified inquiries January 2012 to the present

Over 800,000 new inquiries in January 2016 Over 200 programs with over 10,000 inquiries

Over 300 cities with over 10,000 inquiries



Agenda

1.  National Inquiry and Conversion Trends

2.  Inquiries and Conversions: Online vs. On-Campus Programs

3.  Views by Program and Segment

4.  Dale Leatherwood – Higher Education Marketing Executive

5.  Summary



Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

To start 2016, overall inquiry volumes for higher education slipped 7%. §  Inquiries were increasing late last year; January broke this trend. §  Typically, January has the highest inquiry volume for the year, so the miss was especially large.

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016

-7% YOY



Branded Inquiries: Overall Results

Branded inquiries carried momentum into 2016–up 3% year-over-year. §  January had the largest inquiry volume since May of 2014. §  A 3% uptick in January marks the 6th consecutive month of year-over-year growth.

─  The 10th month of year-over-year growth in the last 13 months.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


National Branded Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016

3% YoY



Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates Combined

Overall, conversion rates have been volatile, but are trending up. §  Since Q1 2014, quarterly rates have risen as much as 10% and dropped by 5%. §  Recently, they have trended up over 10%.

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015

Conversion Rate Trends (Indexed to Q1 2014)

Total

Immature Months1

1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2.  Total includes unknown source type.

2



Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates for Branded Inquiries

Since Q1 2014, branded inquiry conversion rates have fallen 27%: from 9% to 7.5%. §  Branded inquiries are inquiries that come directly to institutions (school websites and call centers). §  As schools tried to get more branded inquiries, the quality has fallen. §  Fortunately, the downward trend ended in Q1 2015.

9.0% 8.2% 8.3% 8.0%

6.7% 6.8% 7.5%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

10.00%

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015

Branded Conversion Rates by Source



Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates for External Inquiries

Fortunately, conversion rates for external inquiries are up 30% from 1.8% to 2.3%. §  External inquiries are inquiries that are generated by third parties, often referred to as PPI inquiries. §  Institutions have been turning to higher quality inquiry providers, driving up conversion rates. §  Schools need admissions channels that can cost-effectively manage “lower-octane” inquiries.

1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1%

1.9%

2.1% 2.3%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015

Conversion Rates by Source

PPI



Average Price for Pay-per-Lead Inquiries

In January, the price of an external inquiry for higher education rose, but stayed near $45. §  Before January, the average price was consistently slightly below $45. §  January’s average price of $45.20 was the highest in over two years. §  Better inquiries may cost more—and institutions are competing for fewer inquiries.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 $41.72 $41.81 $41.70 $42.45 $40.94 $44.23 $44.25 $44.00 $45.34 $45.43 $44.79 $42.18 2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75 2016 $45.20

$35

$37

$39

$41

$43

$45

$47

Average Price per Inquiry for PPI All Programs and Award Levels

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.



Agenda

1.  National Inquiry Trends




5.  Summary



Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change Momentum for online programs came to a screeching halt in January–down 5%. §  September (+20%), October (+45%), and November (+41%) of 2015 were tremendous months for demand for

online education. §  In 2014 and 2015, January had the largest volume of online inquiries in higher education.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-5% YoY



Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates for Online Programs

Conversion rates for inquiries for online programs were a real bright spot. §  Since Q1 2014, conversion rates for online programs have risen 55%, from 1.9% to 3.0%. §  In Q3 2015 conversion rates rose 33%, from 2.3% to 3.0%.

1.9%

2.9% 2.7%

2.4% 2.3% 2.3%

3.0%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015

Conversion Rate Trends For Online Programs




Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs

October had a whopping 49% more applications, year-over-year, for online programs. §  This trend will continue.

─  November is already ahead of year-ago levels and will get better. ─  December and January are promising.


0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000


Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

Immature Months1

49% YoY



Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

Student demand for on-campus programs in higher education dropped 14% year-over-year. §  Inquiries grew in October and November of 2015. §  December fell 8%. §  The decline accelerated in January—it was the worst fall since last June.

2012

0 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-14% YoY



Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates for On-Campus Programs

To make matters worse, conversion rates for on-campus programs remained low. §  Since Q1 2014 conversion rates for on-campus programs shrank 24%, from 4.2% to 3.2%. §  They have recently stabilized at 3.2%.

4.2% 4.0%

4.3% 4.5%

3.5% 3.2% 3.2%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015

Conversion Rate Trends for On-Campus Programs




Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs

Ugh…Conversions for on-campus academic programs slipped over 50% in October.

§  Falling conversion rates amplified the decline in inquiry volumes. §  November and December may buck this negative trend. §  January looks weak, but may recover.

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

Immature Months1


-51% YOY



Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

In October, total student conversions for programs in higher education dropped 16% year-over-year. §  This trend will not continue.

─  November is already ahead of year-ago levels and will get better. ─  December and January are promising.


0 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000


Total Inquiry Conversions All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

Immature Months1

-16% YoY



Agenda





5.  Summary



The Big 5 Programs: January Growth

Health Care Administration dropped from the Big 5 Programs for student demand. §  Three of the Big 5 Programs grew when compared to year-ago levels. §  After massive year-over-year declines in 2015, Criminal Justice regained some ground. §  Growth in Registered Nursing has slowed–but is still up nearly 20%.

97%

-78%

-8% -15% -16%

19% 19% 9%

-26% -34%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse

Criminal Justice/Police Science

Business Administration and Management

Medical/Clinical Assistant Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in January Inquiries

2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change



77%

-3% -21%

12%

-9%

173% 169% 151%

132%

90%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Health Information Administration

Educational Leadership and Administration

Music Liberal Arts and Sciences Special Education and Teaching

The Fast 5 Year-over-Year Change in January Inquiries


The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

Demand doubled for the Fast 5 academic programs in higher education. §  Health Information Administration joined the list–and grabbed the top spot.

─  Special Education and Teaching is also new to the list in January of 2015.

§  Medical Insurance Coding Specialist and Registered Nursing fell off the Fast 5.

1.  Includes only the top 75 programs (ranked on total inquiry volume since January 2012). Minimum of 1,000 inquiries in 2014. New New



Finding the Sweet Spot

The best market for a program has strong student demand and employment, with limited competition.

Student Demand

Completions: Unit Volume

Inquiry Growth: Unit Growth

Industry Inquiries

Inquiry Growth: % Change

Completions: Unit Growth

Employment

Placement Rates Wages

Job Growth

Job Openings

Jobs per Graduate

Competitive Intensity

Completions per Capita

Competitor Mix (e.g., Public vs. For-Profit)

Number of Competitors

Cost per Inquiry



Top Scoring Markets: Health Information/Medical Records Administration (51.0706)

For HIM, some markets are better than others, so we rated hundreds of markets to find the winners.

§  Akron appears to have the best combination of demand, employment, and limited competition.



Market Scorecard: Akron, OH and Health Information/Medical Records Administration

We also provide detailed scorecards by program and market.



Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

Big Cities were hit hard in January. §  All the Big 5 Cities dropped at least 18%. §  With a 38% year-over-year drop, Chicago had the largest decline (several more schools closed).

-9%

-2%

-8%

-16% -12%

-18%

-26% -29%

-36% -38% -40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Atlanta, GA Los Angeles, CA Chicago, IL

Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in January Inquiries

2015 YoY % Change2 2016 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.



The Fast 5 Cities for All Inquiries

New Orleans, a Fast 5 member since September of 2015, was the fastest-growing city in higher education. §  Orlando and Nashville replaced Seattle and Boston in the Fast 5 cities. §  Three of the Fast 5 cities grew 23% or more.

1. Includes only the top 75 cities by inquiry volume since January 2012. Data includes a 15-mile radius from the center of the CBSA.

-32%

0%

-4%

-44%

-22%

29% 25% 23%

15% 8%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

New Orleans, LA Orlando, FL Wichita, KS Minneapolis, MN Nashville, TN

Five Fastest-Growing Cities for All Inquiries Year-over-Year Change in January Inquiries




-29%

-19%

-7%

-3%

2%

8%

12%

21%

41%

55%

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Unknown Degree

Associate's

Campus

External

Certificate

Online

Branded

Bachelor's

Doctorate

Master's

Year-over-Year Percentage Change in Inquiries 2014/2015 vs. 2015/2016 (November – January)

Inquiry Volumes by Category – Trailing 3 Months

Growth for branded inquiries and online academic programs is slowing–up 29% and 27% last month. §  Higher-level degrees continued to dominate inquiry volume categories. §  For the quarter, on-campus programs were only down 7%.



Inquiry Volumes by Channel - Trailing 3 Months

For the most part, branded inquiry channels outperform external inquiries. §  Social Media continues to be the preferred channel for prospective students in higher education. §  Branded PPC – Inbound Calls dropped to 53% from 188% last month.

-68% -23%

-14% -3% -2% -2%

2% 20% 22% 26%

38% 44%

53% 347%

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400%

Branded: Display External: Affiliate - PPC Branded: Referral External: Affiliate External: PPL Branded: Offline Media Branded: PPC Branded: Interactive Branded: Website Branded: Email Branded: Organic Branded: PPC - Inbound Call Branded: All Other Branded Branded: Social Media

Year-over-Year Percentage Change in Inquiries by Channel All Programs and Award Levels (November – January)



Agenda





5.  Summary

Dale Leatherwood

Ø 18 years in Training and Higher Ed

Ø Executive Leadership at Three Institutions

Ø Higher Ed Marketing, Enrollment, Education and Administrative

Ø Higher Ed Consulting on Marketing, Strategy and Distance Learning

What Now?

Over the Next Month Ø  Get specific to your situation

•  Understand the dynamics of your geographies •  How does this relate to your target (career level, age, demographics, etc)? •  What resources are available (or more importantly NOT available within your

institution?

Ø  Understand the balance of info •  What is the ratio of student demand, employer demand, employer need and

industry dynamics per market?

Ø  Gather Stakeholders to provide context

•  Get the perspectives of external and internal SMEs and departments on the information for balance and context

What Now? Over the Next Quarter

Ø  Engage with your Program Advisors

•  Use the data to determine who should be in the advisory group

•  What detail and direction can they provide relative to the data?

Ø  Re-rank and revise your current Portfolio

•  Revise curriculum, add/edit concentrations, drop programs

Ø  Develop and Execute roll-out plan for new Portfolio

•  Coordinate all internal and external stakeholders in a formal plan of action

•  Develop specific targets for both inflows AND outcomes

What Now?

Over the Next Year Ø  Implement new Program strategy

•  Coordinate program updates with rollouts

•  Track, measure and learn from EACH step in the process

Ø  Parallel marketing/PR strategy to industry

•  Market to the outcomes

•  Engage with Program Advisors on multiple levels

Ø  Stay ahead of the Curve

•  Don’t play catch up with new programs

•  Understand the macro-trends of education and industry



Agenda





5.  Summary



Key Demand Trends and Observations

January generally underperformed.

§  Inquiry volumes fell 7%. ─ Branded up 3% ─ Online down 5% ─ On-campus down 14%

§  Conversions are trending up (but not for on-campus). ─ Online up 49% in October

§  Prices are up slightly month-over-month to $45. §  Large programs are starting to grow. §  Higher degree levels continue to outperform. §  Better data and systems are now available to support your decisions. ─ Where to focus your marketing—by program and market ─ What programs to Stop, Start, Sustain or Grow.

§  What Now: “Use it or lose it?”



Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact: Bob Atkins

CEO Gray Associates, Inc.

[email protected]

@Gray_Associates 617.366.2836

Please feel free to contact: Dale Leatherwood

linkedin.com/in/daleleatherwood

[email protected] @EduSavvy

205.837.4892



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