demand for higher education programs may gray...2016 2017 2018 source: grayreports –inquiry...
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Data • Insights • Strategy
www.GrayAssociates.com
Data • Insights • Strategy
www.GrayAssociates.com
Demand For Higher Education Programs
Results through May 2018
Confidential 2
Who Is Gray?
Program and MarketEvaluation Data
Employment
Placement Rates
Student Demand
Demographics
Wages
Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation System
§ Program profiles
§ Program location
§ Market selection
§ Location selection
§ Campus consolidation
§ Price elasticity
§ Price positioning
§ Price optimization
§ Business strategy
§ Strategy implementation
§ Complex analytics
Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders
Competition
Employer Requirements
3Confidential
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program
2. Program of the Month: Public Administration3. Summary
Confidential 4
§ We started tracking inquiries in 2012 and Google search volumes in September 2016.§ In our webinars, we share data for the last three years.
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Gray has tracked demand for several years.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Confidential 5
§ Gray tracks search volume for the 200 largest higher education programs. - In 2016, these programs produced 67% of all completions.- We track approximately 25 keywords for each program.
§ In May, searches were down 3%.
Google Search Trends: Programs
Program searches on Google are down 5% this year (January through May).
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Google Searches200-Largest Programs* 2016 2017 2018
*Google Searches for 25 keywords for each of the 200 largest programs based on IPEDS completions
-3%
Confidential 6
§ Gray tracks search volume for a sample of 75 higher education brands.§ May searches decreased by 6%, in line with the average so far this year.
Google Search Trends: Brands
Brand searches are also down 5% this year.
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Google Searches75 Brands 2016 2017 2018
-6%
Confidential 7
§ March was down 7% year-over-year.§ April volume rose 1% year-over-year.§ May volume rose 4% year-over-year.
Overall Student Inquiries: All Sources
The long and steep decline in inquiry volume may be ending.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
+4%
Confidential 8
§ Q3 2017 beat the baseline by 54%.§ Since then, conversion rates have fallen, but are still beating the baseline by 29%.
Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates
In 2017 and Q1 2018, conversion rates were well above our 2014 baseline.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
Q3 2017
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends(Indexed to Q1 2014)
+54%
+29%
1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.
2. Total includes unknown source type.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Confidential 9
§ January 2018 also fell 6% year-over-year.§ March, April, and May 2018 are below 2017, but the gaps are likely to close as they mature.
Overall Student Inquiry Conversions: All Sources
For February 2018 inquiries, total conversions fell 6% year-over-year.
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels
2016 2017 2018
1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries are received.
-6% YoY
Immature Months1
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Confidential 10
§ For the last six months, prices have been over $46.00.§ In May, prices rose 8.7% year-over-year to $49.47.
Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
For 14 out of the past 15 months, the average price paid per inquiry has risen year-over-year.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016 $45.1 $45.9 $44.7 $44.8 $42.4 $44.9 $44.3 $44.5 $45.1 $44.7 $44.8 $45.42017 $45.3 $45.2 $45.5 $45.3 $45.5 $45.7 $45.2 $44.5 $45.0 $46.0 $45.9 $46.72018 $47.1 46.56 46.33 47.35 49.47 - - - - - - -
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels
+8.7%
Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Confidential 11
Student Inquiries: 10 Largest Inquiry Budgets
Business Administration has the highest spending on inquiries.
1.000.68
0.500.49
0.360.32
0.260.25
0.210.20
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00
Business Administration and Management
Medical/Clinical Assistant
Psychology, General
Health/Health Care Administration
Medical Insurance Coding Specialist/Coder
Medical Office Assistant/Specialist
Web Page, Digital/Multimedia Design
HVAC
Graphic Design
Public Administration
10 Largest Inquiry Budgets(May 2018)
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Index to Max
Confidential 12
§ The budget for Public Administration shot up 656% year-over-year.
Student Inquiries: Budget Spending for 10 Largest Programs
In May, year-over-year spending increased for each of the 10 programs with the largest budgets.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
656%
110%
94%
83%
50%
40%
40%
23%
13%
5%
0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700%
Public Administration
Medical Office Assistant/Specialist
Health/Health Care Administration
Psychology, General
Web Page, Digital/Multimedia Design
Graphic Design
HVAC
Medical Insurance Coding Specialist/Coder
Business Administration and Management
Medical/Clinical Assistant
May 2018 Inquiry Budget Trends10 Programs With the Largest Budgets
% Change Year Over Year
13Confidential
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program
2. Program of the Month: Public Administration3. Summary
Confidential 14
Inquiries for Online Programs
On average, inquiries for online programs grew 5% year-over-year in 2017.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018
+5%
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Confidential 15
Inquiries for Online Programs
Inquiries for online programs grew 7% year-over-year in May.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
+7%
Confidential 16
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
In May, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 12% year-over-year.
050,000
100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels
2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
-12% YoY
17Confidential
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program
2. Program of the Month: Public Administration3. Summary
Confidential 18
§ Houston was up the most this month (15%), after growing 4% YOY in April.
Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
In May 2018, two of The Big 5 Cities grew inquiries year-over-year.
-15% -17%
-3%
-17% -16%
15%
4% 0%
-2%
-8%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Houston, TX
Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in May Inquiries
2017 YoY % Change 2018 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Confidential 19
The Big 5 Programs: May Growth Year-over-Year
Each of The Big 5 Programs grew in May.
91%
22% 14%
8% 8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
100%
Healthcare Administration
Criminal Justice Registered Nursing Medical Assistant Business Administration
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in May Inquiries
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Confidential 20
The Fast 5 Programs:The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
All 5 of the fastest-growing programs1 grew 90% or more.
900%
139% 103% 98% 91%
0% 100% 200%300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 800% 900%
1000%
Public Administration
Medical Records Technician
Pharmacy Technician Computer Programming
Healthcare Administration
The Fast 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in May Inquiries
§ Public Administration and Computer Programming are repeats from last month.
1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
Also in April Fast 5
Confidential 21
Fastest-growing Programs
The fastest-growing programs are all programs that take two years or fewer to complete.
14%
15%
17%
17%
23%
26%
26%
37%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Health/Health Care Administration/Management
Cosmetology/Cosmetologist, General
Surgical Technology/Technologist
Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering …
Truck and Bus Driver/Commercial Vehicle Operator and Instructor
Medical Radiologic Technology/Science - Radiation …
Nail Technician/Specialist and Manicurist
Aesthetician/Esthetician and Skin Care Specialist
Fastest-growing ProgramsApril Google Searches
Confidential 22
Shrinking Programs
Several teaching programs are falling fast.
-68%
-46%
-45%
-43%
-36%
-28%
-27%
-23%
-80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%
Hotel/Motel Administration/Management
Education, General
Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science, General
Hospitality Administration/Management, General
Criminal Justice/Safety Studies
Elementary Education and Teaching
Chemistry, General
Teacher Education, Multiple Levels
Fastest-declining ProgramsApril Google Searches
Confidential 23
Fastest-growing Brands
The fastest-growing brands are a mix of very different schools.
8%
12%
12%
12%
13%
16%
19%
22%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
University of Kansas
University of Oklahoma-Norman Campus
University of Wyoming
College for America, SNHU
Florida Career College
West Coast University
Western Governors University
Universal Technical Institute
Fastest-growing BrandsGoogle Searches
24Confidential
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program
2. Program of the Month: Public Administration3. Summary
Confidential 25
§ Google keywords associated with Public Administration are very competitive.§ Cost per click is double that of the average program.
Cost Per Click (CPC) – Google Keywords
After a run-up last September, CPC for Public Administration has been high, but steady.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Google SearchesCost Per Click
CPC - Public Administration
CPC - All Programs
Confidential 26
§ The mean salary is $54,000.§ The median salary is $47,000.
Public Administration: Salary
Salaries range from less than $35,000 to more than $75,000 for Public Administrators.
1,119
1,302
1,186
762
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
Less than $35,000
$35,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $74,999
More than $75,000
Salary Distribution (Advertised)
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2018. June 1, 2017-May 31, 2018SOC Codes 11-1031 (Legislators) and 11-9151 (Social and Community Service Managers) were used in this analysis.
Number of Postings Citing the Salary Level
Confidential 27
§ Undergraduate Public Administration majors work in many fields, most of which pay better than government jobs.
Public Administration: Bachelor’s Graduate Salaries
For graduates with a Bachelor’s degree in Public Administration, wages are quite different.
$37,076
$81,936
$- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000
Age less than 30
Age over 30
ACS Salaries By Program, For Bachelor’s Degree Graduates
Confidential 28
Public Administration: Education (Minimum Advertised)
92% of Public Administration job postings require at least a Bachelor’s degree.
0%
8%
74%
16%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
High school or vocational training
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Doctoral degree
Most Frequently Cited Minimum Education
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2018. June 1, 2017-May 31, 2018SOC Codes 11-1031 (Legislators) and 11-9151 (Social and Community Service Managers) were used in this analysis.
Confidential 29
Public Administration: Employer Requirements
0.99
0.99
0.85
0.73
0.69
0.64
0.58
0.57
0.52
0.52
0.48
0.47
0.46
0.46
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10
Direct implementation of new procedures, policies, or …
Manage financial activities of the organization
Manage broad organizational programs or initiatives
Oversee execution of organizational or program policies
Manage organizational facilities
Develop staff policies
Manage individual and organizational contracts
Direct financial operations
Terminate employment of employees or contractors
Terminate relationship with clients or vendors
Execute employee bargaining agreements
Establish recruiting procedures
Implement company or staff policies
Direct treatment programs
Public Administration: Primary Work ActivitiesFit with Job
Low Fit with Job High
Source: SkillsEngine, Gray’s Program Evaluation SystemCIPs: Public Administration (41.0401)
Confidential 30
Public Administration: Program Scorecard
Confidential 31
Public Administration:Completions per 1,000 Population (Ages 18-34)
D.C. has 50% greater market saturation than the next closest market.
0.33
0.33
0.36
0.41
0.42
0.43
0.44
0.50
0.75
1.12
0.00 0.50 1.00
Iowa
West Virginia
Minnesota
Massachusetts
New York
Arizona
Vermont
Hawaii
Indiana
District of Columbia
Public Administration Completions Per 1,000 Population (10-Highest States)
0.05
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.10
0.10
0.00 0.50 1.00
Maine
Idaho
South Carolina
Tennessee
Mississippi
Oklahoma
North Dakota
Louisiana
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Public Administration Completions Per 1,000 Population (10-Lowest States)
32Confidential
1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches- National- Online and On-campus- City and Program
2. Program of the Month: Public Administration3. Summary
Confidential 33
§ The decline in total inquiries seems to be slowing.
§ Conversions rates exceed our baseline, and should lead to rising conversion volumes.
§ Prices for inquiries are rising.
§ Successful brands are enjoying a run-up in searches.
- Increases starts
- May also lower cost per start
§ In this environment, you will need:
- The ability to take share, so you can sustain and grow enrollment in a soft market.
- Great data to inform decisions on programs and markets to invest in.
Key Demand Trends and Observations
Confidential 34
Questions and Contacts
Please feel free to contact:Bob Atkins
CEOGray Associates, Inc.
[email protected]@Gray_Associates
617.366.2836
Confidential 35
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