2017 august grayreports - demand trends for higher education

GRAYREPORTSDemand for Higher Education Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through August 2017

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Program and Market Evaluation Data

Employment

Placement RatesStudent Demand

Demographics

Wages

Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation

System

§ Program profiles

§ Program development

§ City targeting

§ Location selection

§ Campus consolidation

§ Price elasticity

§ Price positioning

§ Price optimization

§ Business strategy

§ Strategy implementation

§ Acquisition analysis

§ Complex analytics

Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition

Enhanced Crosswalks




Agenda

1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries and Conversions

1. National

2. Online and On-Campus

3. Degree Level

4. City and Program

2. Job Postings: Medical and Health Services Managers

3. Program of the Month: Health Care Administration

4. Summary




0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

Total inquiry volumes have been declining for several years.§ Declining unemployment rate

§ Falling interest in post-secondary education

§ Marketers shifting away from paid inquiries




0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000



2015 2016 2017


Inquiries fell faster this year, average monthly volume is off by 11% year-over-year.

-11%




0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000



2015 2016 2017


August volume dropped 9%, slightly better than the 2017 average.

-9%




Conversion Maturity

It takes several months for inquiries to convert.

§ It took until May for conversions of January inquiries to beat last year.

-40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

10%

Month 1 January

Month 2 February

Month 3 March

Month 4 April

Month 5 May

Month 6 June

Month 7 July

Month 8 August

Conversion of 2017 January InquiriesVersus 2016 January Conversions




80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Q1 2014

Q2 2014

Q3 2014

Q4 2014

Q1 2015

Q2 2015

Q3 2015

Q4 2015

Q1 2016

Q2 2016

Q3 2016

Q4 2016

Q1 2017

Q2 2017

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends(Indexed to Q1 2014)

Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2017, conversion rates are well above our 2014 baseline.§ Q2 2017 beat the baseline by 25%.

§ Q2 inquiries will continue to convert.

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2. Total includes unknown source type.

+25%




Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For May inquiries, total conversions increased 10% year-over-year.§ June and July 2017 have already reached 2016 levels.

§ August is also likely to pass last year’s volumes.

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000


Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

+10% YoY

Immature Months1




Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.752016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.13 $44.77 $44.89 $45.492017 $45.39 $45.30 $45.50 $45.36 $45.51 $45.76 $45.26 $44.65 $- $- $- $-

$30$32$34$36$38$40$42$44$46$48

Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

For the first time in 2017, the average price of an external inquiry was below $45.§ In August, prices were nearly flat year-over year.

§ August is the lowest price this year.

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.

+0.3%




Student Inquiries: 10 Largest Inquiry Budgets

1.0

1.0

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Medical/Clinical Assistant

Business Admin: Bachelor's +

Medical Office Assistant/Specialist

Business Admin: Associate's

Psychology, General

Medical Insurance Coding Specialist

Health Care Administration

Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and …

HVAC Maintenance Technology

Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller

10 Largest Inquiry Budgets(August 2017)

Among the 10 largest programs, Medical Assisting had the highest spending on inquiries.

Index to Max




Student Inquiries: Budget Spending for 10 Largest Programs

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Psychology, General

Health Care Administration

Medical Insurance Coding Specialist

Heating, Air Conditioning, Ventilation and …

Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and Information …


Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller

Medical Office Assistant/Specialist


Medical/Clinical Assistant

August 2017 Inquiry Budget Trends10 Programs With the Largest Budgets

§ Spending increased for more than half of the 10 largest programs.

The program with the largest budget, Medical Assisting, decreased 12% YoY in August 2017.

% Change YoY




Agenda

1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches

1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Inquiries for Online Programs

Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for online programs shrank less than 1% year-over-year in August.§ This is positive news after an 11% decline in July.

§ Plus, August 2016 was a very tough month to beat–it was up 15% over August 2015 and had the most online inquiries since January 2014.

0

50,000

100,000

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250,000

300,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017-1% YoY




Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs

Conversions for online higher education programs increased 89% in May.§ This is the tenth consecutive increase in conversions.

§ June and July have already grown compared to last year.

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,000


Inquiry Conversions for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

+89% YoY

Immature Months1




Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

In 2017, inquiries for on-campus academic programs have continued their decline.

§ In August, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 12% year-over-year.

2012

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-12% YoY1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.




Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs

Conversions for on-campus programs fell 10% year-over-year in May.§ This marks the ninth consecutive month of declining conversions.

§ June and July have a lot of ground to make up.

§ But, August is off to a good start.

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-10% YOY1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

Immature Months1




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Year-Over-Year Change

Once again, Bachelor’s degrees were the fastest-growing degree level.§ Doctoral programs grew in August after a long decline.

§ All other degree levels were flat or down year-over-year.

-11%

-7%

-4%

3%

8%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

Undergraduate certificate

Master's degree

Associate's degree

Doctoral degree

Bachelor's degree

Change in InquiriesAugust 2017 YoY




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

All of The Big 5 Cities fell year-over-year.§ LA inched down 3%.

§ Inquiries in the other four cities fell by double digits.

-40%

5%

-7%

-20% -17%

-3%

-10% -10% -14%

-21%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Los Angeles, CA Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Atlanta, GA Chicago, IL

Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in August Inquiries

2016 YoY % Change 2017 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.




The Big 5 Programs: August Growth

After some growth last month, all of The Big 5 Programs were flat or down in August.§ Business Admin (Bachelor’s) was flat.

§ Business Admin (Associate’s) was only down 6%.

§ Medical Assistant, Criminal Justice, and Registered Nursing were down 10% or more.

0%

-6%

-10% -11% -12%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%



Medical Assistant Criminal Justice Registered Nursing

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in August Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change




-69% -64%

-56% -54% -52%

-100%

-50%

0%

Curriculum and Instruction

Electrical/Electronics Equip. Install and

Repair

Construction Management

Cosmetology Organizational Behavior Studies

The Slow 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in August Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change

The Slow 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Slowest Inquiry Growth

All five of the slowest-growing programs1 shrank more than 50%.

§ Curriculum and Instruction is the only repeat from last month.

1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.




119% 117%

75% 74% 71%

0%

50%

100%

150%

General Studies Liberal Arts and Sciences/Liberal

Studies

Accounting and Business/Management

Hospitality Administration

Human Services

The Fast 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in August Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change

The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew more than 70%.§ The top two, General Studies and Liberal Arts, are both new to the list and grew more than 110%.

§ The next two, also both new programs in the Fast 5, are Accounting/Business Management and Hospitality Administration.

§ Human Services, which has consistently shown up in the Fast 5, grew 71%.

1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Medical and Health Services Managers: Job Postings

After a 2016 decline, Job Postings for Medical and Health Services Managers are likely to rise.

165,885

206,335227,412

305,490286,999

213,180

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD

Job Postings

Job PostingsMedical and Health Services Managers

Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. September 1, 2016-August 31, 2017SOCs: Medical and Health Services Managers (11-9111) was used in this analysis.




Medical and Health Services Managers: Salary

Salaries are typically above $50,000 for Medical and Health Services Managers.

3,303

3,327

5,845

10,709

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

Less than $35,000

$35,000 to $49,999

$50,000 to $74,999

More than $75,000

Salary Distribution (Advertised)

§ The mean salary is $79,000.

§ The median salary is $70,000.

Note: Most job postings do not include salary data.

Number of Postings Citing the Salary Level





Medical and Health Services Managers: Education (Minimum Advertised)

Among job postings that specify education, 62% of Medical and Health Services Managers job postings cite a Bachelor’s degree.

0%

21%

62%

11%

7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

High school or vocational training

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Doctoral degree

Most Frequently Cited Education (Minimum Advertised)





Medical and Health Services Managers: Job Titles

Director of Nursing is the most common title in this field.

Job Titles Count % to TotalDirectorofNursing 21,030 7.17%MedicalDirector 17,177 5.86%ClinicalManager 14,588 4.97%RegisteredNurse 12,285 4.19%MedicalSurgical 5,574 1.90%AssistantDirectorofNursing 4,506 1.54%HealthDirector 3,771 1.29%PracticeManager 3,304 1.13%HealthManager 3,293 1.12%LicensedMedicalSurgicalUnit 3,063 1.04%

Total 293,271





Medical and Health Services Managers: Skill Clusters

Postings for Medical and Health Services Managers require a variety of skills.§ Outside of Health Care, many Business-related skills are cited.

16%

17%

17%

18%

21%

24%

26%

26%

28%

41%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Business: Quality Assurance and Control

Health Care: Emergency and Intensive Care

Administration: Scheduling

Health Care: Advanced Patient Care

Health Care: Health Care Procedure and Regulation

Information Technology: Microsoft Office and Productivity Tools

Health Care: Medical Support

Health Care: Basic Patient Care

Finance: Budget Management

Business: People Management

Most Frequently-Cited Skill Clusters in Job Postings

OtherHealth Care





Medical and Health Services Managers: Employers

Anthem Blue Cross is the largest employer, but only accounts for 2.5% of specified postings.

5,014

3,513

3,160

2,048

1,983

1,557

1,544

1,473

1,456

1,444

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Anthem Blue Cross

UnitedHealth Group

Hospital Corporation of America

DaVita Incorporated

Sunrise Senior Living, Inc.

Fresenius

Integris

Aetna Incorporated

Ascension Health

Providence Health & Services

Medical and Health Services Managers Job Postings by Employer





Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Program Scorecard: Student Demand

Student Demand for Health Care Administration is higher than 98% of programs.





Growth in Student Demand for Health Care Administration is uncertain.

§ Inquiries are falling fast.

§ Google search volumes and IPEDs completions are rising quickly.

Growth?




Program Scorecard

Student Demand for HCA is high, but so is competition, especially online.

Intense Competition




Health Care Administration: Competition

For-profit, online competitors generate hundreds of completions per year.




Program Scorecard

HCA employment is healthy. Completions are increasingly focused on Master’s Degrees.

Good Job Volume Wages?

Emphasis on Master’s Degrees




Program Scorecard




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Key Demand Trends and Observations

§ Online rebounded and remains a bright spot in demand for higher education.─ Inquiries inched down just 1% vs. a very strong month in 2016.

─ Conversions rose 89% in May, are up for June and July, and will get better.

§ Interest in on-ground programs continued a steep decline.─ Inquiries fell 12% year-over-year.

─ Conversion fell 10% year-over-year.

§ Budgets are shifting from trades programs to degreed programs.

§ All large programs and cities were flat or down.

§ Health Care Administration is still a good program, but there are better ones.─ Student Demand is strong

─ But Competition is unusually intense, especially online

─ Jobs are healthy, but wage data is a concern

─ Over 100 programs scored higher: there are probably better options for new programs




Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact:Bob Atkins

CEOGray Associates, Inc.

[email protected]@Gray_Associates

617.366.2836




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