2017 may grayreports - demand trends in higher education

GRAYREPORTSDemand for Higher Education Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through May 2017

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2

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Who Is Gray?

Program and Market Evaluation Data

Employment

Placement RatesStudent Inquiries

Demographics

Job Postings

Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation

System§ Program profiles§ Program development

§ City targeting§ Location selection§ Campus consolidation

§ Price elasticity§ Price positioning§ Price optimization

§ Business strategy § Strategy implementation§ Acquisition analysis§ Complex analytics

Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition

Enhanced Crosswalks



Agenda

1. Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Google Searches

1. National

2. Online and On-Campus

3. Degree and Channel

4. City and Program

2. Job Postings

3. Google Search

4. Summary



Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

We will share data from 2015, 2016 and 2017.§ GrayReports covers January 2012 through the present. § We add between 600,000 and one million qualified inquiries to the dataset each month.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017



0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000



2015 2016 2017


In 2017, inquiries have fallen by an average of 8% year-over-year.

-8%



0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000



2015 2016 2017


In May, inquiry volumes declined 3%.

-3% YoY



External Inquiries: Overall Results

External (or PPL) inquiries continued to plummet.§ Last year they fell an average of 10% year over year.§ May inquiries also dropped 10% year-over-year.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000


National External InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017

-10% YoY



Branded Inquiries

Branded inquiries continued to decline in May.§ In 2016, the average monthly growth rate for Branded inquiries was 6%.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


National Branded InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017

-7% YoY



80859095

100105110115120125130

Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends(Indexed to Q1 2014)

Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2017, conversion rates are already well above our 2014 baseline.§ Q1 2017 beat last year by 8% and Q1 inquiries will continue to convert.

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2. Total includes unknown source type.

+8%



Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For February inquiries, total conversions declined 9% year-over-year.§ It now takes six months for conversions to fully mature.§ Nonetheless, February conversions will likely remain lower year-over-year.§ March conversions have already surpassed last March’s volume.

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000


Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-9% YoY

Immature Months1



Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 $40.71 $41.40 $41.40 $41.41 $41.07 $40.73 $42.63 $42.73 $43.24 $43.30 $43.13 $43.002016 $43.62 $43.93 $42.82 $43.30 $40.56 $43.18 $42.72 $42.93 $43.49 $43.34 $43.46 $44.142017 $44.25 $44.22 $44.39 $44.21 $44.14 $- $- $- $- $- $- $-

$30

$32

$34

$36

$38

$40

$42

$44

$46

Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

Since December, the average price of an External inquiry has been over $44.§ In May, the average price increased 9% year-over-year.

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.

+9%



Student Inquiries: Budget Spending for 10 Largest Programs

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

Medical Assistant.

Business Administration

Administrative Assistant

Medical Office Assistant

Accounting Technology and Bookkeeping.

Medical Insurance Specialist

Health Care Administration

Registered Nursing

Criminal Justice

Computer and Information Sciences

Inquiry Budgets for the 10 Largest Programs(January to May, 2017 )

§ Computer and Information sciences has the smallest budget.Among the 10 largest programs, Medical Assisting has the highest spend for affiliate leads.

$ in Thousands



Student Inquiries: Budget Spending for 10 Largest Programs

-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Medical Office Assistant

Medical Insurance Specialist

Accounting Technology and Bookkeeping.

Medical Assistant

Health Care Administration

Administrative Assistant

Criminal Justice

Business Administration

Registered Nursing


Inquiry Budget Trends for the 10 Largest Programs Jan through May 2017 Year-Over Year Trend

§ Only Medical Office Assistant and Medical Insurance Specialist spending increased.The program with the largest budget, Medical Assistant, declined 12% in 2017 YoY.

% Change YoY



Agenda


1. National



4. City and Program

2. Job Postings

3. Google Search

4. Summary



0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016

Inquiries for Online ProgramsEducation Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeYear-over-year, inquiries for online programs were flat in 2016.

+0.5%



Inquiries for Online ProgramsEducation Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for online programs grew 10% in May.§ Inquiries for online programs have now increased in ten of the last eleven months.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017+10% YoY



Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs

Conversions for online higher education programs increased 53% in February.§ This is the seventh consecutive increase in conversions.§ The immature months have already passed last year’s volumes.

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,000


Inquiry Conversions for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

+53% YoY

Immature Months1



Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

Inquiries for on-campus academic programs continued their decline.§ 2016 fell short of year-ago levels by an average of 15%.

2012

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016

1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

-15%



Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

Inquiries for on-campus academic programs continued their decline.§ In April, inquiries for on-campus programs plunged 18% year-over-year.§ May inquiries for on-campus higher education programs performed much better, only dropping 5%.

2012

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-5% YoY1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion).

Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.



Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs

Conversions for on-campus programs fell 21% year-over-year in February.§ January conversions improved 4% this month, but still fell short year-over-year.§ The three immature months have a lot of ground to make up.

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-21% YOY1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion).

Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

Immature Months1



Agenda


1. National



4. City and Program

2. Job Postings

3. Google Search

4. Summary



Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Trailing Three Months

Post-Master’s certificates continued to be the fastest-growing awards.§ Associate’s degrees also increased over the past quarter (17%).§ The more advanced degrees declined.

-15%

-15%

-11%

0%

17%

90%

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Master's degree

Bachelor's degree

Doctor's degree

Undergraduate certificate

Associate's degree

Post-master's certificate

Quarterly Change in InquiriesMarch through May YoY



Inquiry Volumes by Channel – Trailing Three Months

Once again, Affiliate – PPC was the fastest-growing channel for student inquiries. § Two different Branded inquiry channels grew in the most recent quarter.

-84% -56%

-38% -36% -31%

-23% -19% -16% -14% -12%

-6% 0%

11% 56%

127%

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150%

PPC - Inbound Call: BrandedDisplay: BrandedReferral: BrandedPPL: ExternalEmail: BrandedSocial Media: BrandedInteractive: BrandedInbound Phone: BrandedAll Other Internal: BrandedEvent: BrandedPPC: BrandedAffiliate: ExternalWebsite: BrandedOffline Media: BrandedAffiliate - PPC: External

Quarterly Change in Inquiries by ChannelAll Programs and Award Levels

(March through May YoY) BrandedExternal



Agenda


1. National



4. City and Program

2. Job Postings

3. Google Search

4. Summary



The Big 5 Programs: May Growth

Inquiries for the Big Five Programs shrank again.§ Medical Assisting, which was the best performer last month, dropped 21%.§ Registered Nursing was down 19%§ Criminal Justice/Police Science was down 27%.§ The two business programs continued to drop, both down more than 38%.

-19% -21%

-27%

-38% -42% -45%

-40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%

Registered Nursing Medical Assistant Criminal Justice Business Admin: Bachelor's +

Business Admin: Associate's -

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in May 2017 Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change



243%

104%

56% 42% 41%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

Medical Insurance Coding

Cosmetology Construction Management

Electrician. Welding Tech

The Fast 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in May Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change

The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew more than 40%.§ At 243%, Medical Insurance Coding grew the fastest in May.§ Second on the list, Cosmetology grew nearly 104%.§ Medical Insurance Coding was the only program that was in last month’s top 5 list.

1. Only includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.



-88% -82%

-72% -66%

-47%

-100%

-50%

0%


Electrical Engineering Tech

Cyber Security Curriculum and Instruction

Counseling Psychology

The Slow 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in May Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change

The Slow 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Slowest Inquiry Growth

All five of the slowest-growing programs1 shrank more than 47%.§ Computer and Information Sciences declined 88% YoY.§ Second on the list, Electrical Engineering Tech declined 82%.

1. Limited to the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.



Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

Only three of The Big 5 fell double digits year-over-year.§ Inquiries for New York grew 5% in May.§ Atlanta was flat year-over-year.

-17%

-34%

1%

-28%

-15% -16% -12% -12%

0%

5%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Los Angeles, CA Chicago, IL Philadelphia, PA Atlanta, GA New York, NY

Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in May Inquiries

2016 YoY % Change 2017 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.



Agenda


1. National



4. City and Program

2. Job Postings

3. Google Search

4. Summary



Job Postings: Demand Map

Where are the top locations for jobs? Example: Public Relations

MSAs (Top 5 MSA) Count % of Total Location Quotient Demand Level IndexNew York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 4,430 16.84% 2.5 Very High

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 1,778 6.76% 3.0 Very High

San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 1,609 6.12% 3.6 Very High

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 1,503 5.71% 1.3 High

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI 923 3.51% 1.1 Average

Total (specified) 26,309

Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. June 1, 2016-May 31,2017SOCs: Public Relations Specialists, Public Relations and Fundraising Managers, Advertising and Promotions Managers were used in this analysis. Source: Employer Sites



Job Postings: Demand Map

Where are the top locations for jobs? Example: Public Relations

MSAs (Top 5 MSA) Count % of Total Location Quotient Demand Level IndexNew York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA 4,430 16.84% 2.5 Very High

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV 1,778 6.76% 3.0 Very High

San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA 1,609 6.12% 3.6 Very High

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA 1,503 5.71% 1.3 High

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI 923 3.51% 1.1 Average

Total (specified) 26,309




Job Postings: Annual Job Counts

Demand for PR-related personnel in the New York Metro Area appears to rebounding.

4,584 4,696

5,596

3,6784,029

2,311

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD

Job Postings

Job PostingsPublic Relations – New York MSA




Job Postings: Job Titles

Communications Manager is the most common job title in PR.

Job Titles (Top 10) in NY MSA Count % to TotalCommunications Manager 404 9.12%

Director of Communications 238 5.37%Public Relations Manager 158 3.57%

Communications Specialist 155 3.50%Communications Associate 128 2.89%

Media Planner 127 2.87%Communications Coordinator 103 2.33%

Director of Development 78 1.76%Director of Public Relations 76 1.72%

Major Gifts Officer 69 1.56%Total 1,351




Job Postings: Sample Salary

The majority of listed salaries are greater than $50,000.

20

27

67

68

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Less than $35,000

$35,000 to $49,999

$50,000 to $74,999

More than $75,000

Salary Distribution in NY MSA (Advertised)

§ 96% of the job postings did not have any salary information.§ The mean real-time salary is $68,682.




Job Postings: Skill Clusters

Only four of the most frequently skills are specific to Public Relations.§ PR requires strong general business skills, including MS Office, budgeting, strategy, and writing.

15%

15%

16%

17%

17%

25%

28%

32%

37%

40%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Marketing and Public Relations: Marketing Management

Media and Writing: Writing

Marketing and Public Relations: Corporate Communications

Business: People Management

Business: Business Strategy

Business: Project Management

Finance: Budget Management

Marketing and Public Relations: Social Media

Marketing and Public Relations: Public Relations

Information Technology: Microsoft Office and Productivity Tools

Most Frequently Cited Skill Clusters in Job Postings

OtherMarketing/PR




Job Postings: Education (Minimum Advertised)

Among job posting that specify education, 90% cite a bachelor’s degree.§ Almost 90% of the specified job postings advertised a Bachelor’s degree.

3%

2%

90%

4%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

High school or vocational training

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Doctoral degree

Most Frequently Cited Education (Minimum Advertised)




Job Postings: Employers

JP Morgan Chase Company is the largest employer for this field in the NY MSA.

76

69

45

45

42

40

38

37

36

35

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

JP Morgan Chase Company

Employer 2

Prudential

Reliefweb

Pfizer

Verizon Communications Incorporated

CBS Broadcasting

CUNY

NBC

Accenture

Employers by Volume in Job Postings (in NY MSA)

§ The largest employer accounts for 1.8% of the job postings.




Agenda


1. National



4. City and Program

2. Job Postings

3. Google Search

4. Summary



Google Search: Top States for Searches per Capita

D.C. has the most searches per capita for Public Relations.

8.6

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

District of Columbia

New York

Rhode Island

Hawaii

New Jersey

Massachusetts

Georgia

Connecticut

California

Virginia

States by Searches per CapitaProgram: Public Relations

Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 academic programs Q1 2017.



Google Search: Most and Least Expensive States for Public Relations

On a Cost per Click basis, Nevada is the most expensive – Arkansas is the least expensive.

$9.75

$8.34

$6.36

$6.28

$5.66

$0.42

$0.38

$0.14

$0.06

$0.02

$0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $12.00

Nevada

Pennsylvania

Michigan

Florida

Texas

Oklahoma

Oregon

Louisiana

Utah

Arkansas

Public RelationsStates by Cost Per Click

Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 academic programs Q1 2017, State with more than 1,000 searches.



Google Search: Top States for Searches per Capita

The 10 fastest growing states for public relation searches are all growing over 234%.

290%

288%

261%

261%

255%

249%

244%

235%

235%

234%

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350%

Washington

California

New York

Texas

Virginia

Oregon

Colorado

Illinois

Ohio

Florida

Public RelationsYear-over-Year Search Growth

By State

Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 academic programs Q1 2017.

§ Washington State grew the fastest.



Agenda


1. National



4. City and Program

2. Job Postings

3. Google Search

4. Summary



Key Demand Trends and Observations

§ Overall inquiry volumes continue to decline 8%

§ External inquiries dropped 10%, and Branded inquiries also dropped 7%.

§ But, some trends are strongly diverging by segment

─ Inquiries for on-campus programs fell 5%, while inquires for online grew 10%.

─ Conversions on-campus fell 21%, but online programs are up 53%

§ Medical Coding was the fastest-growing program.

§ Employment related to Public Relations has recently grown.

─ Public Relations was also one of the fastest-growing programs in terms of Google Search Volumes.

─ It also appears to be a strong profession, with many advertised salaries over $50,000



Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact:Bob Atkins

CEOGray Associates, Inc.

[email protected]@Gray_Associates

617.366.2836



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