2014 march grayreports - student demand trends

GRAYREPORTS Demand for Educational Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through March 2014

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 2

GRAYFor more information please contact Bob Atkins.

Email: [email protected]

Contents

1. About Gray and GrayReports

2. National Overview of Inquiry Volumes

3. Trends by City and Program

4. GrayReports Market Opportunity Mapping

5. Question and Answer




Who Is Gray?

Gray offers cutting-edge data and analysis on post-secondary education markets.

GrayReports

Completions

Employment

GrayData

Placement Rates

Industry Inqs & Apps

Demographics

BLS/ONET

Business Strategy

Location Selection

Program Portfolio Strategy

Marketing Strategy and Pricing

Gray Research

Job Postings

IPEDS

US Census WANTED Analytics

Public Sources Public Sources Gray Resources




What is GrayReports?

Over 31 million qualified inquiries

January 2012 to the present

~1.0 million new inquiries per month

149 programs with over 10,000 inquiries

257 cities with over 10,000 inquiries




GrayReports: Validity

GrayReports is highly consistent with Google trends and other sources on demand for education.

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50

100

150

200

250

300

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Google1 GrayReports

Inquiries

GrayData

Google

Google Search Trends vs. GrayReports Inquiries Medical Assisting

(January 2012 to October 2013)

1. Google Trends: “Interest over Time”

Correlation: 92.7%




Why GrayReports?

Managers make decisions with the data they have.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Last Year This Year

Inquiries Up 25% (000s)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Last Year This Year

Inquiries Down 16% (000s)

-16%

+25%

Assessment of Marketing

Marketing Imperative

Great Job!

Keep it up. Fix it, Fast!

Yikes!




Without information on the market, internal results can be very misleading.

0

2

4

6

8

10

Last Year This Year

GrayReports: Industry Inquiries Up 44%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Last Year This Year

GrayReports: Industry Inquiries Down 37%

-16%

+25%

+44% -37%

72% 59% 59% 78%

Company

Industry

Market Share

Why GrayReports?

Assessment of Marketing

Marketing Imperative

Yikes!

Keep it up! Fix it, Fast!

Tough Market Good Work

Company

Industry




Education Industry Inquiry Growth

2014 inquiries got off to a good start during January and February, but March results were weaker.

March 2014 inquiries declined 6.5% year-over-year.

Through the first quarter of 2014, inquiries are 4.25% lower than 2013.

2012

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Inquiries (Millions)

Education Industry Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels

2012

2013

2014




-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Line Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2012

2013

2014

On-Line Inquiries

Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change On-line programs are losing share of inquiries.

In the first quarter of 2014, on-line inquiries declined 21%.

March was worse: inquiries for on-line programs fell 26.5% year-over-year.




Inquiries for On-Ground Programs

Inquiries for on-ground programs have increased each month this year.

The first quarter of 2014 is up 5.3% over the same period in 2013.

In March, inquiries for on-ground programs rose 4.9% year-over-year.

2012

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Ground Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2012

2013

2014




Average Price-Per-Inquiry

Since January 2012, price-per-inquiry has risen from $40.42 to $44.52, roughly 27 cents per month.

In 2013, price-per-inquiry averaged $42.71.

In March, price-per-inquiry rose to $44.52—an increase of 50 cents over the prior month.

$37

$38

$39

$40

$41

$42

$43

$44

$45

Average PPI

Average Inquiry Prices All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2012 2013

$43.80 $44.02 $44.52




2.7

%

2.3

%

2.3

%

2.4

%

2.5

%

2.6

%

2.5

% 3

.0%

2.6

%

2.5

%

2.1

%

2.3

%

2.8

%

2.5

% 2.9

%

2.7

%

2.8

% 3

.3%

3.1

%

3.0

%

2.7

%

2.8

%

2.6

%

2.5

%

2.2

%

1.6

%

1.5

%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%


Applic

ation R

ate

Education Industry Application Rates 2012 2013 2014

Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates

Immature Months

Application rates rose in 2013. This year, application rates appear to be weaker.

January 2014 is well behind 2013 levels and almost “mature.1”

Applications from February inquiries will have to make a big jump next month to hit 2013 levels.

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry).

Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.




Average Cost-Per-Application

Higher price-per-inquiry and lower application rates are driving up costs per application in 2014.

In 2013, rising application rates offset price increases, reducing the average cost-per-application.

As Q1 matures, the 2014 price-per-inquiry will drop—but is likely to remain well above 2013 levels.

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

2012 $1,517 $1,757 $1,723 $1,703 $1,656 $1,570 $1,620 $1,388 $1,594 $1,688 $1,991 $1,853

2013 $1,542 $1,665 $1,484 $1,566 $1,566 $1,286 $1,378 $1,444 $1,599 $1,559 $1,611 $1,731

2014 $1,968 $2,727 $3,030

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

Cost-Per-Application All Programs and Award Levels

Not Fully Mature




Fastest-Growing Cities in March

All of the fastest-growing cities1 met or exceeded last year’s inquiry volumes.

San Diego, CA was the fastest-growing market for the second straight month, up 74% year-over-year.

All five cities grew over 40%.

-24% -7%

1%

-26% -10%

74% 46% 46% 41% 41%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

90%

San Diego, CA Ogden-Clearfield, UT

Shreveport-Bossier City, LA

Boise City, ID Salt Lake City, UT

Industry Inquiries Top 5 Highest Growth Markets – March 2014

2013 YoY % Change 2014 YoY % Change

1. Includes only cities with a minimum of 27,000 inquiries since January 2012. Data includes a 15-mile radius from the center of the CBSA.




Largest Cities: March Growth

The five largest cities were flat or down in March.

Los Angeles and Philadelphia were flat year-over-year.

Chicago declined moderately at 5%, compared to a 6% year-over-year decline in February 2014.

New York and Atlanta posted double-digit declines.

-13%

-1%

-14%

10% 13%

0%

0%

-5%

-13%

-18% -20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Los Angeles CA Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL New York, NY Atlanta, GA

Industry Inquiries 5 Largest Markets – March 2014


1. Includes only programs with over 27,000 inquiries since January 2012 for all award levels nationally.




Fastest-Growing Programs in March

The five fastest-growing programs1 all grew over 100% year-over-year in March.

Medical and technical programs accounted for four of the five fastest-growing programs.

Liberal Arts is the only program that made the list for both February and March.

-3% -39%

-6%

33%

-32%

478%

362%

187% 154%

135%

-50%

50%

150%

250%

350%

450%

550%

Respiratory TherapyTechnician/Assistant.

Health Information/Med.Records Admin.

Liberal Arts & Sciences Vehicle Maintenance andRepair

Network and SystemAdmin.

Industry Inquiries Fastest Growing Programs – March 2014


1. Includes only programs with more than 27,000 inquiries since January 2012.




Largest Programs, March Growth

The five largest programs were flat to down—in some cases by almost 20%.

-3%

11%

7%

-12%

8%

0%

-5% -7%

-18% -19%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Medical/Clinical Assistant. Business Administration andManagement, General.

Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller.

Criminal Justice/ PoliceScience.

Accounting.

Five Largest Programs February Inquiries: Year-over-Year Change





GrayReports Inquiries

1. The illustrative campus is

just southwest of the city

center.

2. North and west of the

campus there is high

inquiry volume.

3. East of the campus,

GrayReports shows less

demand.

4. The campus is relatively

far away from the heavy

demand east of the city

center.

Using GrayReports data, we can see inquiry volumes by census tract and neighborhood.

Source: GrayReports 2014 inquiries for corresponding Client programs, award level 1-4.

This chart be actual GR Inquiries

1

2

3

4

Data are for Illustration

Only




Over-Under: Gray Approach

Industry Inquiries by Tract

Client Inquiries by Tract

Average Client Share of Industry Inquiries

Distance Adjustment

“Expected Share” by Tract

“Over-Under” Share

(Actual – Expected Share)

“Over-Under” Inquiries

Over-Under Share x Industry Inquiries




In this example, share of inquiries drops by about 2 percentage points per mile

for locations within 8 miles of a campus.

Share of inquiries declines with distance from campus.

y = -0.02x + 0.2404 R² = 0.90

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Distance From Campus (Miles)

Client Share vs. Distance Example: 0-8 Miles

Client Inquiry Share vs. Distance

30%




Over-Under Analysis

There is an opportunity to increase lead flow in the neighborhood west of campus.

1. The school beats its

distance-adjusted expected

share in the areas to the

east.

2. However, the campus is

underperforming its

expected share of inquiries

in the areas just west of

campus.

Demographic and cluster

analysis indicates that these

neighborhoods have a large,

underserved ethnic

population. 2

1

Data are for Illustration

Only




Takeaways

On-ground programs are gaining share.

- On-line inquiry volume is falling sharply

+ But, inquiries for on-ground are rising

- Overall, application rates declined

- Cost-per-application is up sharply

+ Results vary widely by market and program: Positioning your school in

the right locations and programs can make a big difference.

+ You can identify specific neighborhoods where improvements in

marketing can make a difference.




Takeaways

You need GrayReports for your campuses and programs.

1. To determine if you are winning or losing the battle for share

- As a company

- By campus

- By program

- By neighborhood

2. To evaluate the performance of Marketing Agencies

- Are they rising and falling with the tide?

- Or, are they helping you take share in a tough market?

3. To make better decisions:

- How much you need to spend to sustain or take share

- Where to spend and win




Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact me:

Bob Atkins

CEO

Gray Associates, Inc.

[email protected]

617-401-7662

For the presentation or a recording of the

session, please visit:

GrayAssociates.com

http://www.gray.biz/?page_id=624

2014 march grayreports - student demand trends

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