2017 july grayreports - demand trends for higher education

GRAYREPORTSDemand for Higher Education Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through July 2017

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Who Is Gray?

Program and Market Evaluation Data

Employment

Placement RatesStudent Demand

Demographics

Wages

Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation

System

§ Program profiles

§ Program development

§ City targeting

§ Location selection

§ Campus consolidation

§ Price elasticity

§ Price positioning

§ Price optimization

§ Business strategy

§ Strategy implementation

§ Acquisition analysis

§ Complex analytics

Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition

Enhanced Crosswalks




Agenda

1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches

1. National

2. Online and On-Campus

3. Age and Degree Level

4. City and Program

2. Job Postings: Electrical and Electronics Engineers

3. Program of the Month: Electrical and Electronics Engineering

4. Summary




Google Search: All Programs

Gray has tracked 5,000 keywords since December 2016.

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National Google SearchesAll Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017

Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 academic programs.





Year to date, total searches have risen 15% year-over-year.

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000








In July, searches rose 9%.

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000




+9%




The Big 5 Programs: July Growth

Searches for three of the Big 5 Programs grew year-over-year.§ Cosmetology performed the best (+27%).

§ Business Administration grew 24%.

§ Registered Nursing grew 8%.

§ Nursing Assistant and Medical Assistant both declined more than 4%.

24%

-6%

27%

8%

-4% -10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Business Administration and Management, General

Nursing Assistant/Aide and Patient Care Assistant/Aide

Cosmetology/Cosmetologist, General

Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse

Medical/Clinical Assistant

Five Largest ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in July Searches

2017 YoY % Change





Google Search: Cost Per Click

In July, the most expensive keywords were for Health Care Management and Psychology.

$28.73

$28.84

$29.88

$30.58

$31.49

$31.54

$32.82

$33.76

$48.96

$50.60

$0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00

Computer and Information Systems Security/Information …

Counselor Education/School Counseling and Guidance …

Marketing/Marketing Management, General

Business Administration and Management, General

Public Administration

Medical Insurance Coding Specialist/Coder

Social Work

Family Practice Nurse/Nursing

Psychology, General

Health/Health Care Administration/Management

National Google SearchWeighted Average Cost Per Click

Source: Gray Associates, Google Search Research.




Google Search: Keywords

In July, the top two keywords were ‘Medical Assistant’ and ‘Masage Therapy’ [SIC].

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000

Electrical Engineering

LPN

Computer Science

Accounting

Cosmetology

CNNN

MBA

RN

Masage Therapy

Medical Assistant

National Google Search Volume by Keyword2017 2016

Source: Gray Associates, Google Search Research.




0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000


National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

Similar to June, inquiry volumes dropped 11% in July.

-11% YoY




80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Q1 2014

Q2 2014

Q3 2014

Q4 2014

Q1 2015

Q2 2015

Q3 2015

Q4 2015

Q1 2016

Q2 2016

Q3 2016

Q4 2016

Q1 2017

Q2 2017

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends(Indexed to Q1 2014)

Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2017, conversion rates are already well above our 2014 baseline.§ Q2 2017 beat Q2 2014 by 15% and Q2 inquiries will continue to convert.

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2. Total includes unknown source type.

+15%




Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For April inquiries, total conversions decreased 4% year-over-year.§ May 2017 has already reached 2016 with only two months to convert.

§ As they finish maturing, May, June, and July are likely to beat last year.

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000


Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-4% YoY

Immature Months1




Conversion Maturity

After maturing for four months, January conversions were still down year-over-year.

§ It took until May for conversions of January Inquiries to beat last year.

-40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

10%

Month 1 January

Month 2 February

Month 3 March

Month 4 April

Month 5 May

Month 6 June

Month 7 July

Conversion of 2017 January InquiriesVersus 2016 January Conversions

January 2016 Baseline (34,103 conversions)




Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.752016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.13 $44.77 $44.89 $45.492017 $45.39 $45.30 $45.50 $45.36 $45.51 $45.80 $45.30 $- $- $- $- $-

$30$32$34$36$38$40$42$44$46$48

Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

Since December, the average price of an External Inquiry has been over $45.§ In July, prices increased 2% year-over year.

§ But, July still tied for the lowest price this year.

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.

+2%




Student Inquiries: 10 Largest Inquiry Budgets

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0


Business Administration and Management …

Medical Office Assistant/Specialist

Business Administration and Management …

Psychology, General


Health/Health Care …

Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and …

HVAC Maintenance Technology/Technician

Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller

10 Largest Inquiry Budgets(July 2017)

Among the 10 largest programs, Medical Assisting had the highest spending on inquiries.

Index to Max




Student Inquiries: Budget Spending for 10 Largest Programs

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%


Psychology, General

Health/Health Care Administration/Management

Business Administration and Management (Assoc-)

Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller

Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and Information …

HVAC Maintenance Technology/Technician

Business Administration and Management (Bach+)

Medical Office Assistant/Specialist


July 2017 Inquiry Budget Trends10 Programs With the Largest Budgets

§ Spending declined for more than half of the 10 largest programs.

The program with the largest budget, Medical Assisting, decreased 15% YoY in July 2017.

% Change YoY




Agenda


1. National



4. City and Program



4. Summary




Inquiries for Online Programs

Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for online programs shrank 11% year-over-year in July.§ This was the first decrease in 2017.

§ July 2016 was a tough month to beat–it jumped 16% higher than July 2015.

§ July was still slightly higher than June.

0

50,000

100,000

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300,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017-11% YoY




Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs

Conversions for online higher education programs increased 63% in April.§ This is the ninth consecutive increase in conversions.

§ May and June have already grown more than 63% compared to last year.

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,000


Inquiry Conversions for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

+63% YoY

Immature Months1




Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

In 2017, inquiries for on-campus academic programs have continued their decline.

§ In July, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 11% year-over-year.

2012

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-11% YoY1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.




Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs

Conversions for on-campus programs fell 20% year-over-year in April.§ This marks the eighth consecutive month of declining conversions.

§ The three immature months have a lot of ground to make up.

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-20% YOY1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

Immature Months1




Agenda


1. National



4. City and Program



4. Summary




Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Year-Over-Year Change

This month, Bachelor’s degrees were the fastest-growing degree level.§ All other degree levels were flat or down year-over-year.

-16%

-7%

-3%

0%

6%

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

Master's degree

Undergraduate certificate

Doctoral degree

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Change in InquiriesJuly 2017 YoY




Agenda


1. National



4. City and Program



4. Summary




Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

All of The Big 5 Cities fell year-over-year.

-25% -19%

-38%

-31%

-6% -6% -8%

-18%

-26%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Atlanta, GA New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL

Five Cities With Most Inquiries Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in July Inquiries

2016 YoY % Change 2017 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.




The Big 5 Programs: July Growth

For the first time in over a year, we saw some growth in the Big 5 Programs.§ Business Admin (Associate’s) and Criminal Justice grew in July.

§ Medical Assistant and Bachelor’s in Business Admin were down 9%.

§ Registered Nursing was down 14%.

12%

4%

-9% -9%

-14% -20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Business Admin: Associate's

Criminal Justice Medical Assistant Business Admin: Bachelor's +

Registered Nursing

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in July Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change




-70% -62% -61%

-39% -37%

-100%

-50%

0%

Electrical and Comm. Tech.

Curriculum and Instr. Accounting and Business/Management

Animation, Interactive Technology, Video

Graphics and Special Effects

Management Information Systems, General

The Slow 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in July Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change

The Slow 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Slowest Inquiry Growth

All five of the slowest-growing programs1 shrank more than 30%.§ Electrical Comm. Engineering Tech. and Curriculum and Instruction repeated on the Slow 5 Programs.

1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.




134%

103% 102%84%

56%

0%

50%

100%

150%

Motorcycle Maintenance and

Repair

Electrician Electronics Engineering

Human Services, General

Accounting and Finance

The Fast 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in July Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change

The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew more than 50%.§ A new program to the list, Motorcycle Maintenance grew the fastest.

§ The next two, both new programs in the Fast 5, are Electrician and Electrical Engineering.

§ Human Services, last month’s fastest growing, grew 84%.

§ Accounting and Finance finished 5th, growing 56%.

1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.




Agenda


1. National



4. City and Program



4. Summary




Job Postings: Annual Job Postings

After a decline in 2016, Electrical and Electronics Engineers is likely to rise this year.

78,009 76,08670,256

107,514

91,338

54,852

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD

Job Postings

Job PostingsElectrical and Electronics Engineers

Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. August 1, 2016-July 31, 2017SOCs: Electrical Engineers (17-2071) and Electronics Engineers, Except Computers (17-2072) were used in this analysis.




Job Postings: Salary for Electrical and Electronics Engineers

Salaries are typically above $75,000 for Electrical and Electronics Engineers.

520

452

2,331

8,825

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000

Less than $35,000

$35,000 to $49,999

$50,000 to $74,999

More than $75,000

Salary Distribution (Advertised)

§ The mean salary is $89,000.

§ The median salary is $88,000.

Note: Most job postings do not include salary data.

Number of Postings Citing the Salary Level





Job Postings: Education (Minimum Advertised)

Among job postings that specify education, 95% of Electrical and Electronics Engineers job postings cite a Bachelor’s degree.

0%

0%

95%

4%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

High school or vocational training

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Doctoral degree

Most Frequently Cited Education (Minimum Advertised)





Job Postings: Job Titles

Electrical Engineer is the most common title in this field.

Job Titles Count % to TotalElectricalEngineer 25,610 30.24%SeniorElectricalEngineer 5,088 6.01%ControlsEngineer 4,384 5.18%RFEngineer 3,392 4.01%ElectronicsEngineer 3,288 3.88%ElectricalDesignEngineer 1,852 2.19%ElectricalProjectEngineer 803 0.95%InstrumentationEngineer 778 0.92%SystemsEngineer 749 0.88%Engineer 596 0.70%

Total 84,693





Job Postings: Skill Clusters

Postings for Electrical and Electronics Engineers require a variety of engineering skills.§ Microsoft Office and Project Management tied for second.

16%

16%

22%

23%

24%

25%

25%

26%

26%

70%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Finance: Budget Management

Engineering: Engineering Software

Architecture and Construction: Electrical Construction

IT System Design and Implementation

Engineering: Drafting and Engineering Design

Engineering: Engineering Activities

Maint., Repair, and Install.: Basic Electrical Systems

Business: Project Management

Microsoft Office and Productivity Tools

Engineering: Electrical and Computer Engineering

Most Frequently-Cited Skill Clusters in Job Postings

OtherEngineering





Job Postings: Employers for Electrical and Electronics Engineers

Raytheon is the largest employer, but only accounts for 1.7% of postings.

871

793

776

624

573

556

539

538

481

407

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000

Raytheon

Lockheed Martin Corporation

Northrop Grumman

General Electric Company

General Motors

AECOM Technology Corporation

BAE Systems

General Dynamics

Intel Corporation

Apple Inc.

Electrical and Electronics EngineersJob Postings by Employer





Agenda


1. National



4. City and Program



4. Summary




National Program Rank

Nationally, using a demand-only scoring system, Electrical Engineering scored third-highest.




Program Scorecard: Student Demand

Volume and growth in demand drove the high score for Electrical Engineering.




Program Scorecard




Market Ranking

New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania score the highest for Electrical/Electronics Engineering.




Agenda


1. National



4. City and Program



4. Summary




Key Demand Trends and Observations

§ Overall inquiry volumes declined 11%.

─ On-campus continued to decline.

─ Inquiries for online programs took a rare hit this month, also down 11%.

§ Conversions of April inquiries fell 4% year-over-year.

§ However, conversions of online inquiries leapt 63%.

§ Two of the Big 5 programs grew year-over-year in July.

§ July’s Program of the Month had strong student and employer demand.

─ Electrical and Electronics Engineering scores well using our student demand data and all three sources of data indicate growth.

─ Job postings data is strong, with many well-known employers and a median advertised salary of $89,000.




Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact:Bob Atkins

CEOGray Associates, Inc.

[email protected]@Gray_Associates

617.366.2836




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