2015 june grayreports - student demand trends

GRAYREPORTS Demand for Educational Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through June 2015

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 2

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Who Is Gray?

GrayData

Completions

Enrollment Pricing Employment BLS/O*NET

Placement Rates Gray Research

Industry Inquiries GrayReports

Demographics US Census

Job Postings WANTED Analytics

Students Programs Strategy Locations §  Demographic priorities §  Geo-priorities §  Market share

§  City selection §  Location selection §  Relocation analysis §  Consolidation

§  Program selection §  Program development §  Curriculum enhancement §  Market reports

§  Business strategy §  Strategy implementation §  Pricing §  Outcome improvement

Advanced Analytics Predictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Educational Institutions and Investors

Competition (IPEDS)



What is GrayReports?

GrayReports tracks demand for higher education.

§  Today’s webinar and monthly industry trend reports are free. §  Paid subscribers receive custom monthly reports for their markets and programs §  Paid subscribers also have on-line access to detailed data for their programs and markets

Over 38 million qualified inquiries January 2012 to the present

Over 800,000 new inquiries in June 2015 Over 185 programs with over 10,000 inquiries

Over 300 cities with over 10,000 inquiries



Key Demand Trends and Observations

1.  June demand for higher-education programs fell only 3%.

2.  Year-over-year...

1.  Student demand for on-line programs had a turn-around, up 1% in June.

2.  Student demand for on-ground programs stayed negative.

3.  Conversion rates for mature months continued to be weak.

4.  Average cost per converted inquiry continued to trend higher.

3.  The largest programs and markets continued to lose inquiry volume.

4.  But there are large pockets of significant growth: -  Bachelor’s programs rose 6% -  “Sustainers” were up 14% -  Graduate programs rose over 30%



Agenda

1.  National Inquiry Trends

2.  Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs

3.  Views by Program and Segment

4.  Marketing Implications

5.  Summary



Overall Student Inquiries

June demand for higher education programs was comparable to both prior year and prior month.

§  During the first six months of 2015, demand for higher education programs dropped 8% year-over-year. §  June was down only 3% from prior year, and from May 2015.

-3% YOY

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015



1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

3.3%

3.1%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.8%

3.3%

3.5%

4.1%

3.1%

3.1%

3.0%

2.6%

2.7%

2.6%

2.3%

1.7%

2.8%

2.5%

1.8%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%


Education Industry Inquiry Conversion Rates 2014 2015 Average Immature Conversion Rate

Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates

Although the inquiry gap narrowed in June, inquiry to application conversion rates continue to be weak. §  Mature months, January through March, converted at rates that are well below year-ago levels. §  Immature months, April, May and June, are slightly behind their norms.

Immature Months1

2014 Mature Average: 3.5%



Number of Conversions

2015 conversions of student inquiries continue to trail prior years.

§  Conversions of March inquiries, now a mature month, were down 27%. §  January and February conversions were each down 20% or more from prior year. §  April and June conversions have the best chance of matching prior year levels.


- 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000


Education Industry Inquiry Conversions All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2013

Immature Months1



Average Price for Pay-per-Lead Inquiries

The price-per-inquiry in June 2015 remained relatively consistent with May levels.

§  Through May, 2015 prices exceeded 2014 §  Last year, prices jumped 10% in June; this year, prices remained about $44. §  As a result, 2015 prices are now slightly below 2014.

$43.00 $43.29 $43.55 $43.75 $44.15 $43.91

$41.59 $41.67 $41.55 $42.29 $40.91

$44.19 $43.73 $43.92 $45.25 $45.39 $44.85

$42.01

$30

$32

$34

$36

$38

$40

$42

$44

$46

$48


Average Price per Pay-per-Lead Inquiry All Programs and Award Levels

2015 2014

Note: Inquiry price is the average price for pay-per-lead inquiries.



Average Cost Per Converted Inquiry

Cost-per-converted inquiry continues to trend well above prior-year levels.

§  March’s cost was up 36% from 2014. §  January and February were 14% and 22% above prior year levels, respectively. §  April, May and June are still immature, but are likely to mature at approximately $1,350 per conversion.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 $1,244 $1,359 $1,172 $1,225 $1,162 $1,255 $1,154 $1,311 $1,301 $1,104 $1,450 $1,350 2015 $1,418 $1,662 $1,596 $1,668 $1,887 $2,567 2013 $1,362 $1,559 $1,346 $1,422 $1,423 $1,296 $1,354 $1,323 $1,452 $1,399 $1,370 $1,377

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500 Cost Per Converted Inquiry All Programs and Award Levels

Immature Months



Agenda





5.  Summary



Inquiries for On-Line Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change June demand for on-line programs was consistent with prior-year levels.

§  April had the best year-over-year comparison, up 10%. §  Demand in May was the weakest of 2015, down 16% from year-ago levels. §  June demand was up a modest 1%.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Line Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015

1% YOY



Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Line Programs

Conversions of student inquiries for on-line programs deteriorated substantially in March.

§  March conversions were down 34% from prior year. §  While it is too soon to forecast conversions for April, May, and June, they are trending well behind prior year

levels.


0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Line Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2013

Immature Months1



Inquiries for On-Ground Programs

On-ground inquiry volumes continued to be weak in June.

§  June demand was down 20% from prior year. §  Inquiry levels for all months in 2015 have been lower than 2014. §  May had the worst year-over-year inquiry comparison of 2015.

2012

0 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Ground Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015

-20% YOY



Conversions of student inquiries for on-ground programs declined substantially in March. §  March conversions of on-ground student inquiries were down 43% from 2014, the worst year-over-year

comparison of 2015. §  Conversion levels for all mature months in 2015 have been more than 25% lower than prior year.

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Ground Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2013

Immature Months1

Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Ground Programs


-43% YOY



0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000


Conversions of External Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2013

Conversions of External Inquiries

While 2015 conversions of external inquiries have mirrored 2013 levels, they have trailed behind 2014.

§  For all mature months in 2015, conversions levels have been at least 25% lower than prior year. §  April has already exceeded 2013 conversion levels and May has almost matched 2013. §  April, May and June appear unlikely to reach 2014 conversion levels.

Immature Months



Conversions of Internal Inquiries

Conversions of internal student inquiries are well behind both 2014 and 2013.

§  January had the best year-over-year comparison among mature months in 2015, down 12% from 2014. §  February and March were each down by more than 20%. §  April, May, and June appear unlikely to match prior year levels.

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000


Conversions of Internal Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2013

Immature Months



Agenda





5.  Summary



Largest Programs: June Growth

Demand for only one of the five largest higher education programs grew year-over-year in June.

§  Business Admin inquiry volumes grew a modest 1%. §  Health Care Admin had a slight decrease of 1% while Medical Assistant fell a more substantial 21%. §  Accounting, new to the list of largest programs, dropped 43%. §  Criminal Justice fell the furthest once again, down 68%.

-8%

-40%

3%

-7%

-24%

1%

-1%

-21%

-43%

-68% -80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Business Administration and Management

Health Care Administration/Management.

Medical Assistant Accounting Criminal Justice/Police Science.

Year-over-Year Change in June Inquiries Five Largest Programs

2014 YoY % Change 2015 YoY % Change



101%

-30%

-33%

70% 62%

527%

144% 105% 93% 89%

-80%

20%

120%

220%

320%

420%

520%

Adult High School/ Secondary Diploma Program

Educational Leadership and Administration

Special Education and Teaching

Management Science Health Information Administrator

Year-over-Year Change in June Inquiries Five Fastest-Growing Programs


Top 5 Fastest-Growing Programs in June

Three of the five fastest-growing higher education programs are new to the list in June.

§  Adult High School Diploma, new to the list, was by far the fastest growing program in June. §  Three of the five programs saw growth in excess of 100%. §  All five programs grew by at least 89%.

1.  Includes only the top 75 programs (ranked on total inquiry volume since January 2012)

New to the list in June



Largest Cities for Inquiries

Only one of the largest cities for higher education programs saw growth in student demand in June. §  Atlanta was up 4%. §  New York and Chicago were down 8% and 13% respectively §  Philadelphia and Los Angeles fell 25% or more.

-11% -2%

-13% -2%

93%

4%

-8% -13% -25% -31% -35%

-15%

5%

25%

45%

65%

85%

Atlanta New York Chicago Philadelphia Los Angeles

Year-over-Year Change in June Inquiries Top Five Cities for Inquiries


Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.



Fastest-Growing Cities for All Inquiries

Two of the five fast-growing cities for higher education programs are new to the list in June.

§  Oklahoma City was once again the fast-growing market in June, up 44%. §  Raleigh, NC and Houston, TX joined the list this month. §  All cities saw growth of 23% or more.

1. Includes only the top 75 cities by inquiry volume since January 2012. Data includes a 15-mile radius from the center of the CBSA.

-10% -15%

0%

56%

-7%

44%

27% 24% 24% 23%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Oklahoma City, OK Wichita, KS Raleigh, NC Houston, TX Augusta, GA

Year-over-Year Change in June Inquiries Five Fastest-Growing Cities for All Inquiries


New to the list in June



Sustainers vs. Strugglers: Inquiry Volume

Sustainers enjoyed dramatic gains in June, with demand for higher education programs up 14%!

-12% -15% -15% -12%

0%

-3% -13% -16%

-31% -44% -46%

-27%

49% 45% 32%

11% 11% 6%

-2% -8% -3% -3% -7% -5%

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%


Sustainers vs. Strugglers Year-over-Year Change in Inquiry Volumes 2014

-15% -11% -8%

-4%

-20%

-12%

-3% -5%

0% 1%

-2%

14%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%


Year-over-Year Change in Inquiry Volumes 2015

Strugglers

Sustainers



159% 49% 51%

38% 13%

6% -3%

-12% -12%

-14% -19%

-26%

-30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110% 130% 150%

Master's Internal Bachelor's Internal Doctorate Master's Internal Bachelor's Online Associate's External Certificate Ground Unknown Degree

Year-over-Year Percentage Change in Inquiries 2014 vs. 2015 (April – June)

Inquiry Volumes by Category

§  Graduate programs all grew over 30%. §  Demand for Associate’s and Certificate programs was below average. §  Bachelor’s and Master’s internal inquiries had very rapid growth: 49% and 159% respectively.

Monthly Average

Student inquiries for graduate degree programs once again outperformed the pack.

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 25

Summary: Bachelor’s Degree in Psychology, General

§  Inquiries for online programs are very high, more than three times the number of inquiries for on-ground programs.

§  Inquiries for both on-line and on-campus programs are growing rapidly, with on-ground more than doubling this year.

§  This is a highly competitive sector. Over 1,400 institutions offer the program, and over 100,000 students graduate each year.

Bachelor’s degree programs in Psychology, General show high and growing student demand, while job openings are growing at an average pace.

Psychology, General On-ground On-line Psychology Psychology

Student Demand Total Inquiries (2015 YTD) 12,072 38,972 Inquiry Trends (YoY Change) 106% 69%

Job Opportunities

Actual Placement Rates (Bach.+) 99.6% 99.6% Job Growth (10-year CAGR) 1.06% 1.06% BLS Annual Job Openings 9,262 9,262 JOG (job openings per graduate) 0.1 0.1 Job Postings (last 12 Months) 52,033 52,033 Hiring Difficulty (100 = most difficult) 44 44

Competition 2013 Completions 98,231 15,664 Price Per Inquiry $39.47 $46.39 Number of Competitors 1,269 137

Strategic Fit

BLS % Of Employed: Assoc and below 37% 37% BLS % Of Employed: Bachelor’s 34% 34% BLS % Of Employed: Master’s 26% 26% BLS % Of Employed: Doctorate 3% 3% Wages (Wanted Median) $43,400 $43,400


Psychology, General Occupations: Human Resources Specialists and Labor Relations Specialists

Overview §  Human resources specialists recruit, screen, interview, and place workers. They often handle other human resources work, such as those related to employee

relations, payroll and benefits, and training. Labor relations specialists interpret and administer labor contracts regarding issues such as wages and salaries, employee welfare, healthcare, pensions, and union and management practices.

Job Outlook §  Employment of human resources specialists and labor relations specialists is projected to grow 7 percent from 2012 to 2022, slower than the average for all occupations.

Employment growth will vary by specialty. §  Employment of human resources specialists is projected to grow 8 percent, about as fast as the average for all occupations. About 15 percent of human resources specialists work in

the employment services industry, which includes employment placement agencies, temporary help services, and professional employer organizations. Employment growth in employment services is projected to be much faster than the average as organizations continue to outsource human resources functions to professional employer organizations—companies that provide human resources services to client businesses.

§  In addition, rather than having recruiters and interviewers on staff, these businesses will contract preliminary staffing work to employment placement and temporary staffing agencies as needed.

§  Companies will also need human resources specialists to find replacements for workers leaving the workforce. Organizations will likely need more human resources generalists to handle increasingly complex employment laws and healthcare coverage options.

§  However, employment of human resources specialists will be tempered as companies make better use of available technologies. Rather than sending recruiters to colleges and job fairs, for example, some employers are increasingly conducting their entire recruiting and application process online. In addition, some of the tasks of generalists can be automated or made more efficient using Human Resources Information Systems—software that allows workers to quickly manage, process, or update human resources information.

§  Employment of labor relations specialists is projected to show little or no change from 2012 to 2022. Union membership has been on a downward trend, resulting in less demand for the services of labor relations specialists.

Human Resources Specialists and Labor Relations Specialists

2012 Median Pay $55,640 per year $26.75 per hour

Entry-Level Education Bachelor’s degree Work Experience in a Related Occupation None

On-the-job Training None Number of Jobs, 2012 495,500 Job Outlook, 2012-22 7% (Slower than average) Employment Change, 2012-22 32,500


Bachelor’s Degrees awarded in Psychology, General have been growing at roughly 5% annually.

Psychology, General: Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded by Sector

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Psychology, General Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded by Sector

Public

Private not-for-profit

Proprietary

Source: Gray Associates, GrayData from IPEDS for CIP 42.0101 for bachelor’s degree

Institution 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Proprietary 1,870 3,539 2,294 3,294 3,607 Private not-‐for-‐profit 29,747 29,519 30,404 33,249 34,439 Public 62,877 64,517 68,121 72,763 75,849


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000 Psychology, General Completions by Competitor

Kaplan University-Davenport Campus

Florida State University

University of Colorado Boulder

University of South Florida-Main Campus

California State University-Northridge

CUNY Hunter College

Florida International University

Liberty University

University of Central Florida

Ashford University

Ashford is the largest competitor, followed by two state schools and Liberty—which is growing fast.

Competition for Psychology, General: Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded by Largest Institutions

Source: Gray Associates, GrayData from IPEDS for CIP 42.0101 for bachelor’s degree

Institution 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Ashford University 763 1,144 1,285 1,388 1,334 University of Central Florida 783 850 963 1,114 1,253 Liberty University 367 431 652 946 1,202 Florida InternaHonal University 451 523 578 783 846 CUNY Hunter College 446 462 470 611 720 California State University-‐Northridge 566 597 668 607 696 University of South Florida-‐Main Campus 478 542 604 700 686 University of Colorado Boulder 493 525 596 645 668 Florida State University 396 415 476 543 641 Kaplan University-‐Davenport Campus 1 153 94 767 614 Other 89,775 91,933 94,433 101,202 105,235 Total Number of CompeHtors 1,367 1,386 1,364 1,382 1,394


Student Demand: Inquiry Trends for Bachelor’s-Level Psychology Programs

§  Inquiries have increased nearly every month since August 2013. §  In 2015, inquiry volumes increased dramatically. The most recent four months have

been up 70% to 95% relative to year-ago levels.

Inquiries for Bachelor’s-level Psychology programs have increased sharply.

Source: Gray Associates, GrayData inquiries for CIP 42.0101 for Bachelor’s degree.


BLS estimates 11% growth for jobs related to Psychology programs. It does not forecast changes in educational attainment within an occupation.

BLS Employment Projections

30,797 34,835

238,149 268,456

306,981 340,957

340,331 373,518

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

2012 2022

BLS Employment Outlook for Occupations Related to Bachelor’s in Psychology

Assoc and Below

Bachelor's

Master's

Doctoral or professional degree

Source: BLS, Employment Outlook 2012-2022 for SOCs 21-1012, 11-9151, 13-1071, 21-1019, 29-9092, 29-2053.

11%


Job postings in fields related to Psychology, General have been trending upward.

Job Opportunities for Psychology, General: Job Postings (WANTED Analytics) NATIONAL

245,410 264,050 274,351

342,422

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2012 2013 2014 2015

Job Postings for Occupations Related to Psychology 12 Months Ending May of Each Year

Source: Gray Associates analysis of WANTED Analytics job postings for SOCs 21-1012, 11-9151, 13-1071, 21-1019, 29-9092, 29-2053.


There are currently 36,451 job postings in fields related to Psychology, General nationally. Most are for Bachelor’s-level positions.

Psychology, General: WANTED Analytics


Psychology, General: WANTED Analytics

Currently Hiring: Historical Hiring:

Job Titles:



Agenda





5.  Summary



Key Findings

§  The mix of inquiries is shifting to :

-  Internal

-  Healthy schools (Sustainers)

-  Higher degree levels

-  Smaller cities in the mid-west and south-east.

§  There are tremendous variations by city, program, and modality.

-  Two of the five fastest-growing cities are new to the list in June.

-  Three of the five fastest-growing programs joined the list this month.

-  Inquiry counts for large cities are shrinking, while they are growing for smaller mid-western and south-eastern cities.

§  You need a custom view that reflects the markets in which you compete.

§  You could know if you are winning or losing the battle for share.

-  Adapt your strategy to the market situation

-  Correctly assess company and management performance



Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webinars

Please join us next month!

August Webinar (July Results)

Wednesday, August 19th at 2:00 PM EDT



Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact: Bob Atkins

CEO Gray Associates, Inc.

[email protected]

617-366-2836

2015 june grayreports - student demand trends

Education

online programs

educational programs

ground programs

highereducation programs

higher education programs

bachelors programs

graduate programs

largest programs