2016 september grayreports - demand trends in higher education

GRAYREPORTS Demand for Higher Education Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through September 2016

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2

GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]

Who Is Gray?

Program and Market Evaluation Data

Employment BLS/O*NET

Placement Rates Gray Research

Student Inquiries GrayReports

Demographics US Census

Job Postings CEB TalentNeuron

Programs Price Projects Place §  Program portfolio

strategy §  Program Profiles §  Program development

§  City targeting §  Location selection §  Campus consolidation

§  Price elasticity §  Price positioning §  Price optimization

§  Business strategy §  Strategy implementation §  Acquisition analysis §  Complex analytics

Advanced Analytics Predictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition IPEDS+

Gray’s Program Evaluation System is available as a SaaS solution.

Enhanced Crosswalks



Agenda

1.  Inquiry and Conversion Trends:

1.  National

2.  Online and On-Campus

3.  Degree and Channel

2.  Integrated View of Student and Employer Demand:

1.  City and Program

2.  Job Postings Trends

3.  New Ed – Inform to Empower

4.  Summary



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National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

We will share data from 2014, 2015, and 2016.

Introduce how to read chart: years and colors

Report Monthly to account for seasonality



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2014 2015 2016


Inquiries have decreased an average of 8% year-over-year in 2016.

-8%

•  Big declines were earlier in the year.

•  August and September were closer to last year’s results.



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2014 2015 2016


In September, inquiry volumes decreased 5% year-over-year.

-5% YoY

5% is a little worse than last month’s 1% decline, but better than this year’s average 8% decline.



Branded Inquiries

Year-over-year, branded inquiries jumped 14% in September. §  This is the fifth consecutive month of growth in branded inquiries for higher education programs.

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National Branded Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016

+14% YoY

Define Branded Inquiries: Inquiries for a particular school’s brand name

There is an critical implication: if Branded inquiries become more prevalent, awareness and preference for your brand will increase in importance.

But, most institutions do not have the budget to support brand marketing. This trend may favor

1.  bigger schools with stronger brands, and more ability to fund brand marketing and football teams.

2.  Schools with well-defined niches in which they are well-known and well-regarded.



External Inquiries: Overall Results

External inquiries have fallen every month this year, by an average of 15% year-over-year.

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National External Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016

Define External Inquiries: Inquiries from a third-party site that generates inquiries for higher education.

-15%



External Inquiries: Overall Results

In September, External inquiries fell12%.

-12% YoY

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National External Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016

Define External Inquiries: Inquiries from a third-party site that generates inquiries for higher education.



Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2014 and 2015, conversion rates were volatile. §  Since Q1 2014, quarterly rates have risen as little as 1% and as much as 22% over prior-year rates.

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Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends (Indexed to Q1 2014)

1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the conversion rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2.  Total includes unknown source type.

+11%

+22%

+1%

Explain Conversion Rates: schools

have many definitions of a

conversion, so in our data a conversion includes: an

application, an enrollment, or a

start.



Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2016, conversion rates seem to be stabilizing, close to 2014 levels. §  After being down 1% last month, Q2 2016 has now matured and risen 2% above the Q1 2014 level.


2.  Total includes unknown source type.

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Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends (Indexed to Q1 2014)

+2%



Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For June inquiries, total student conversions fell 13% year-over-year. §  Conversions are taking longer, so June might continue to improve a bit. §  Conversions of May inquiries were down 17% YoY in last month’s results, and are now down 15% YoY. §  As they mature, conversions of August and September inquiries are likely to reach last year’s levels.


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Total Inquiry Conversions All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-13% YoY

Explain Conversion Timing: Conversions are counted in the month in which the original inquiry is received. If a June inquiry converts I August, it is counted as a June Conversion.

Typically, inquires take 13 months to mature (or reach their maximum conversion rate.

More recently, conversions are taking longer, sometimes 5-6 months after the inquiry.

Immature Months1



61%

86% 89% 86% 92% 95%

50%

66%

79% 83% 86% 85%

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60%

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120%

Month 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4 Month 5 Month 6

National Conversions Percent of Total Conversions by Month

14-Jul 15-Jan

Inquiry to Application: Conversion Maturity

Inquiries have been converting at a slower rate than in prior years. §  In the example below, we looked at conversions of inquiries in July 2014 and January 2015.

─  For July 2014 inquiries, only 61% of the eventual total conversions converted in the first month. ─  For January 2015, this first-month number had decreased to 50% of the total eventual conversions. Introduce how to read

chart: years and colors



Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 $41.72 $41.81 $41.70 $42.45 $40.94 $44.23 $44.25 $44.00 $45.34 $45.43 $44.79 $42.18 2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75 2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.57 $45.20 $- $- $-

$30 $32 $34 $36 $38 $40 $42 $44 $46 $48

Average Price per Inquiry for PPI All Programs and Award Levels

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

In September, the price of an External inquiry was nearly flat year-over-year. §  So far in 2016, the average price for paid inquiries is up only 2% year-over-year.

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.

-0.1%



Agenda


1.  National







4.  Summary



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Inquiries

Inquiries for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change Year-to-date, inquiries for online programs are flat year-over-year.

+0.1%



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Inquiries

Inquiries for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change In September, inquiries for online programs rose 8% year-over-year. §  This makes three growth months in a row: July and August both rose 15% year-over-year.

8% YoY



Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs

Conversions of June inquiries for online programs declined 10% year-over-year. §  Conversions are taking longer, with some taking five or six months instead of just three. §  For example, April inquiries continued to convert; they are now down 6% (down 9% last month). §  July is lagging, but August looks as if it will beat last year. It is still too early to predict September.

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10,000


Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

Immature Months1

-10% YoY 1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.



Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

In September, inquiries for on-campus higher-education programs dropped 17% YoY.

§  The first nine months of 2016 have fallen below year-ago levels by an average of 15%.

2012

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Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-17% YoY 1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.



Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs

Conversions for on-campus programs reached last years levels – down 0.6% YoY for June. §  In another month or two, conversions of June inquiries might pass last year’s levels. §  July and August may beat last year.

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Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-1% YOY Immature Months1

1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.



Agenda


1.  National







4.  Summary



-11%

-10%

-10%

-8%

-3%

65%

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Associate's degree

Master's degree

Bachelor's degree

Doctor's degree

Undergraduate certificate

Post-master's certificate

Quarterly Change in Inquiries 2016/2015 (June to August)

Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Trailing Three Months

Once again, Post-Master’s certificates were the only degree-level that grew. §  Certificates out-performed degrees over the past three months.



Inquiry Volumes by Channel – Trailing Three Months

For the most part, Branded inquiry channels outperformed External inquiries. §  Affiliate – PPC was the fastest growing in Q3, a first for an external channel. §  Social Media dropped to second, but continued to grow over 100% year over year. §  Six different Branded inquiry channels grew in the most recent quarter.

-58% -53%

-41% -35% -34%

-28% -21%

4% 18% 18%

27% 29%

91% 152%

235%

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%

PPC - Inbound Call: Branded All Other Internal: Branded PPL: External Email: Branded Referral: Branded Display: Branded Interactive: Branded Organic: Branded PPC: Branded Affiliate: External Offline Media: Branded Website: Branded Inbound Phone: Branded Social Media: Branded Affiliate - PPC: External

Quarterly Change in Inquiries by Channel All Programs and Award Levels

(June through August YoY)



Agenda


1.  National







4.  Summary



The Big 5 Programs: September Growth

Inquiries for all of the Big Five programs shrank more than 10% in September. §  Criminal Justice/Police Science performed the best, but fell 11%. §  Nursing continues to struggle, down 14%. §  Medical Assistant continued to drop, down 23%. §  Business Administration dropped about 30% at the Bachelor’s and Associate’s levels.

-11% -14%

-23%

-29% -31% -35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Criminal Justice Registered Nursing Medical Assistant Business Admin: Bachelor's +

Business Admin: Associate's -

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in September Inquiries

2016 YoY % Change



-12%

335%

21%

-7%

74% 52% 37% 30% 28%

-50%

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150%

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400%

Public Administration

Computer Systems Analyst

Organizational Leadership

Cosmetology Health Services Administration

The Fast 5 Programs Year-over-Year Change in September Inquiries

2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change

The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

Four new programs showed up in the five fastest-growing programs1. §  At nearly 75%, Public Administration grew the fastest. §  Cosmetology is the only repeat from last month.

1.  Includes the top 75 programs in inquiry volume since January 2012. 2. May reflect competitive marketing, or reporting by Gray’s data suppliers.



Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

None of the Big 5 cities grew year-over-year. §  Philadelphia performed the best but still decreased 3% in September. §  Los Angeles had the largest decline – a drop of 36%.

-18% -20% -21% -19%

-27%

-3% -7%

-27% -28%

-36% -40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Chicago, IL Atlanta, GA Los Angeles, CA

Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in September Inquiries


Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.



Agenda


1.  National







4.  Summary



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National New Job Postings All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

Overall New Job Postings (All Sources)1

New job postings have decreased an average of 7% year-over-year in 2016.

-7%

1.  Excludes Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers.



16%

3%

16%

69%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Associate's

Bachelor's

Master's

Doctorate

National Quarterly Change in New Job Postings 2016/2015 (July to Sept)

National New Job Postings by Degree – Trailing Three Months1

Year-over-year, New Job Postings that require a degree grew in the past 3 months. §  Compared to last year, job postings that require a Doctoral degree grew almost 70%. §  Demand for employees with Bachelor’s degrees grew the least, just 3%.




New Job Postings: The Big 5 Cities1

Two of the five cities with highest number of job postings grew year-over-year in 2016. §  New York grew in both 2015 and 2016. §  Atlanta popped up 38% in 2016. §  Chicago, Houston, and San Francisco declined 4-6%.

6%

-12%

-20%

0%

13% 8%

-6% -4%

38%

-5%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

New York, NY Chicago, IL Houston, TX Atlanta, GA San Francisco, CA

Largest Five Cities for New Job Postings July to September Year-over-Year Results





New Job Postings: Ten Largest Occupations in Nation1,2

in the last 3 months, Registered Nursing had the most new job postings in the country.

§  The occupation Marketing Managers was second with 133,000 new postings. §  The largest 10 occupations made up 27% of total new job postings.

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Registered Nurses

Marketing Managers

Software Developers, Applications

Medical and Health Services Managers

Management Analysts

Computer User Support Specialists

Computer Systems Analysts

Sales Managers

Network and Computer Systems Administrators

General and Operations Managers

New Job Postings in Last 3 Months (Jul-Sep 2016) Ten Largest Occupations in Nation

1.  Includes only the occupations that require at least an Associate’s degree.




New Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Occupations in Nation1,2

The fastest-growing occupations are generally in the healthcare industry.

§  The four fastest-growing occupations are all medical doctors; they each grew over 100%.

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%

Psychiatrists

Internists, General

Family and General Practitioners

Physicians and Surgeons, All Other

Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists

Critical Care Nurses

Chief Executives

Physical Therapists

Nurse Practitioners

Food Service Managers

New Job Postings in Last 3 Months (Jul-Sep 2016) Ten Fastest Growing Occupations in Nation

1.  Includes only the biggest 100 occupations that require at least an Associate’s degree.




New Job Postings: Ten Most Requested Hard Skills in Nation1,2

Nationally, for job postings that require a degree, the most requested hard skill is quality assurance.

§  Programming languages such as SQL, Java, and JavaScript are among the most requested hard skills. §  Despite the size and growth of health occupations, only Pediatrics made the top ten skills.

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Quality Assurance

Structured query language

Java

Pediatrics

Technical support

Linux

Customer relationship management

Bilingual

Quality control

JavaScript

New Job Postings in Last 3 Months (Jul-Sep 2016) Ten Most-Requested Hard Skills in the US





New Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Hard Skills in the US1,2

The fastest-growing hard skills are generally in either software or allied health.

§  C/C++ grew an extraordinary 970% YoY in 2016. §  Skills related to nursing are among fastest growing in the nation.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

C/C++

Emergency room

DevOps

Amazon Web Services

Tableau Software

Critical care

Behavioral health

Medical-Surgical Nursing

Pediatrics

Patient Electronic Medical Record

New Job Postings in Last 3 Months (Jul-Sep 2016) Ten Fastest-Growing Hard Skills Nationwide

970%





New Job Postings: Ten Most Requested Certifications in the US1,2

Nationally, Certified RN was the the most requested certification.

§  Almost all the most requested certifications related to an allied health occupation. §  Government Security Clearances are often among the top 10 certifications.

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Certified Registered Nurse

Basic Life Support

Certification in Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation

Advanced Cardiac Life Support

Secret Clearance

Licensed Practical Nurse

Occupational Safety & Health Administration

Board Certified

Certified Public Accountant

Pediatric Advanced Life Support

Ten Most Requested Certifications in the US July-September 2016





New Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Certifications in the US1,2

The fastest-growing certifications are often in healthcare and Nursing.

§  Security clearances were two of the ten fastest-growing certifications. §  All the remaining certifications were related to a nursing or healthcare occupation.

0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 1000% 1200% 1400%

Public trust security clearance

Mental Health Nurse

Hospice and Palliative Care

Secret Clearance

Psychiatry

Doctor of Medicine

National League for Nursing Accrediting Commission

Commission on Collegiate Nursing Education

National Council Licensure Examination

Certified Family Nurse Practitioner

Ten Fastest-Growing Certifications Nationally July-September 2016





Agenda


1.  National







4.  Summary

Inform to Empower Creating informative

education exploration to empower students at all stages of engagement

Quick Introduction

Craig Maslowsky Founder and CEO Past VP – Marketing and Enrollment

Yesterday’s higher ed market. More predictable. Higher barriers to entry.

old|ed

…has certainly grown – driven by distance education and alternative options old|ed

…in the institutions adding online offerings have entered and crowded markets once protected by geography and brand recognition

old|ed

In the •  It is increasingly

expensive to attract and retain students.

•  Students are behaving more like consumers.

•  Engagement is critical.

solution: Relevant and informative engagement at all stages of the student life-cycle

Will this program prepare me for the career I want?

How much will this cost me?

How long will this take me?

...here are the three primary questions today’s education consumers want answered... 3

cost/benefit analysis



{typical .edu experience}

?


most .edu sites require a lot of steps to find related information, and it’s rarely personalized and specific.



?

{informative experience}


Which presents an opportunity for your institution to stand out.

{typical .edu experience}





Benefit:

Cost:





Cost:

Benefit:

Benefit:

•  Create a clear line of sight to future opportunities

•  Ensure access to career alignment throughout the student lifecycle

•  Organize and configure available data to enable communication of program relevance

Attract

Explore

Engage

Enroll

•  Informed guidance •  Program showcase •  Clear expectations •  Emphasis of relevance •  Personalized

messages •  Ongoing engagement

Valuable opportunities emerge to engage prospects and students throughout their lifecycle with the institution.

Informed personalization

presents ongoing engagement related to the

ultimate goal of the student.

Opportunity to Engage

3 Steps Toward Engagement

1.  Identify related careers for top 10 programs

2.  Create content that illustrates HOW programs prepare students: §  Faculty interviews §  Graduate interviews §  Instruction-to-skills mapping

3.  Incorporate one additional email with this program specific content into your communication plans

•  Informed guidance •  Program showcase •  Clear expectations •  Emphasis of relevance •  Personalized messages •  Ongoing engagement

•  Course content •  Program outcomes •  Student experience •  Available resources •  Faculty profiles •  Alumni data

Tools to get you there

•  New Ed provides web based applications which allow institutions to effectively engage and inform prospects and students

•  New Ed leverages the power of data, pre-configured logic and optimized user experiences

•  Institutions provide program data, we deliver interactive tools for simple incorporation into web and digital communications

•  Powered by Gray Associates data

A Glimpse

Thank you! Learn more @ www.newedinc.com [email protected]



Agenda


1.  National







4.  Summary



Key Demand Trends and Observations

After a strong August, some positive trends continued into September.

§  Inquiry volumes fell 5%. §  Branded and online inquiries continued to grow. §  Conversions of June inquiries were down 13% YoY, but inquiries seem

to be continuing to convert much later than in past years. §  Average inquiry prices were flat. §  Surprisingly, Certificate programs grew faster than higher degrees. §  Social Media continues to be a strong channel. §  Better data and systems are available to support your decisions. ─  Where to focus your marketing—by program and market ─  What careers to focus on ─  What programs to Stop, Start, Sustain or Grow



Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact:

Bob Atkins CEO

Gray Associates, Inc.

[email protected] @Gray_Associates

617.366.2836



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