2015 december grayreports - student demand trends

GRAYREPORTS Demand for Higher Education Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through December 2015

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GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates. Email: [email protected]

Who Is Gray?

GrayData

Completions

Enrollment Pricing Employment BLS/O*NET

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Student Inquiries GrayReports

Demographics US Census

Job Postings WANTED Analytics

Students Programs Strategy Locations §  Demographic priorities §  Geo-priorities §  Market share

§  City selection §  Location selection §  Relocation analysis §  Consolidation

§  Program selection §  Program development §  Curriculum enhancement §  Market reports

§  Business strategy §  Strategy implementation §  Pricing §  Outcome improvement

Advanced Analytics Predictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition (IPEDS)

Program Evaluation System

§  Custom Scoring

§  Scorecards

-  By Program

-  By Market

-  100+ Markets

-  800+ Programs



What is GrayReports?

GrayReports tracks demand for higher education.

§  Today’s webinar and monthly industry trend reports are free. §  Paid subscribers receive custom monthly reports for their markets and programs. §  Paid subscribers also have online access to detailed data for their programs and markets.

Over 43 million qualified inquiries January 2012 to the present

Over 700,000 new inquiries in November 2015 Over 200 programs with over 10,000 inquiries

Over 300 cities with over 10,000 inquiries



Key Demand Trends and Observations

Year-over-year, demand for higher education programs was flat in December.

§  In December, inquiries for higher education programs were flat.

§  For the full year 2015, inquiries for higher education dropped 2.9%.

§  Major segments did grow, but more slowly than in prior months. ─ Branded inquiries: +10% (down from over 20%) ─ Online programs: +2% (down from 41% in November) ─ Doctoral Degrees: +52% ─ Master’s degrees: +70%

§  Inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 8.3%.

§  We can now pinpoint growth opportunities by program and market.



Agenda

1.  National Inquiry Trends

2.  Inquiries and Conversions: Online vs. On-Campus Programs

3.  Views by Program and Segment

4.  Educators Serving Educators – Competency-Based Education

5.  Summary



Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

December inquiry volume was flat year-over-year, after three months of growth.

§  As usual, December had the lowest monthly inquiry volume. §  Despite a strong finish in 2015, total annual inquiries for higher education fell 2.9%.

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015

-0.55% YOY



Branded Inquiries: Overall Results

2015 branded inquiries for higher education rose year-over year in all but three months (May, June, July).

§  October and November both increased more than 25% year-over-year.

§  December “slowed” to 10% growth year-over-year. §  Total annual branded inquires grew 7.1% in 2015.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


National Branded Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015

10% YoY



1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

3.4%

2.8% 2.5%

2.0% 2.8%

2.5%

1.8%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%


Education Industry Conversion Rates 2014 2015 Average Immature Conversion Rate

Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates

Conversion rates in our sample appear to be stabilizing, somewhat below last year.

§  September finished slightly above the 2015 average of 3.3%. §  October conversion rates will likely finish at the 2015 average, but well below last year’s 4.4%. §  December started 10% above the norm, and may beat the 2015 average and last year.

Immature Months1

2015 Mature Month Average: 3.3%



Average Price for Pay-per-Lead Inquiries

After two years of increases, the average price for pay-per-lead inquiries also seems to be stabilizing. §  For the year 2015, the average price for a pay-per-lead inquiry rose to $44.27.

─  The average price in 2014 was $43.35, in 2013 it was $40.04.

§  For the last six months, the average price per inquiry was $44.90. §  During this period, monthly variation has been less than 35¢.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 $42.27 $42.17 $42.09 $42.48 $40.95 $44.26 $44.26 $44.01 $45.35 $45.42 $44.79 $42.18 2015 $43.11 $43.52 $43.72 $43.63 $44.04 $43.75 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.94 $44.68 $44.75

$30

$32

$34

$36

$38

$40

$42

$44

$46

$48

Average Price per Inquiry for PPI All Programs and Award Levels

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.



Agenda





5.  Summary



Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change December demand for online programs finished just 2% ahead of 2015 – the 4th straight month of growth.

§  After a very strong second half of 2015, total annual online inquiries finished 3% ahead of 2014. ─  Through the 1st half of 2015 (Jan – June), online inquiries trailed 2014 levels by 5.3%. ─  In the second half of 2015, online inquiries surpassed 2014 levels by 13.1%.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015

2% YoY



Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs

For the second consecutive month, online applications for higher education are up at least 20%.

§  September matured a remarkable 28% ahead of 2014. §  October and November, although immature, are already ahead of year-ago levels.


0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000


Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015

Immature Months1 28% YoY



Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

Inquiries for on-campus academic programs fell 8.3% in December 2015.

§  2015 full-year inquiries for on-campus academic programs dropped 9.9% below 2014. §  May was the worst month with a drop of 25%. §  October and November grew slightly, but December’s 8.3% drop reversed the trend.

2012

0 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Ground Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015

-8.3% YoY



Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs

September conversions for on-campus higher-education programs matured 35% below 2014. §  Among immature months:

─  October 2015 will finish well behind a very strong October 2014. ─  November and December could meet or beat last year.

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Ground Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015

Immature Months1


-35% YOY



Agenda





5.  Summary



The Big 5 Programs: December Growth

In December, only two of the Big 5 Programs in higher-education grew. §  Registered Nursing grew 67%. It was the the fastest-growing academic program among the Big 5.

§  Year-over-year, Criminal Justice was up 57%, but remains 78% below the 2012 peak. §  Three of the Big 5 Programs fell over 10%.

29%

-83%

-26% -23%

8%

67% 57%

-12% -13% -31%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Registered Nursing Criminal Justice/Police Science

Medical/Clinical Assistant Business Administration and Management

Health Care Administration

Demand for Higher Education Year-over-Year Change in December Inquiries

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012

2014 YoY % Change 2015 YoY % Change



-30% -17% -22%

29%

-37%

166% 165% 129%

67% 63%

-120%

-70%

-20%

30%

80%

130%

180%

230%

280%

Medical Insurance Coding Specialist

Educational Leadership and Administration

Music Registered Nursing Liberal Arts and Sciences

The Fast 5 December Year-over-Year Change Inquiries


The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

Among the Fast 5 Programs, Registered Nursing replaced Computer and Information Sciences. §  Registered Nursing was the only newcomer to the Fast 5 Programs this month. §  Demand more than doubled for three of the Fast 5: Medical Insurance Coding, Educational Leadership and

Administration, and Music.

1.  Includes only the top 75 programs (ranked on total inquiry volume since January 2012). Minimum of 1,000 inquiries in 2014.



Finding the Sweet Spot

The best market for a program has strong student demand and employment, with limited competition.

Student Demand

Completions: Unit Volume

Inquiry Growth: Unit Growth

Industry Inquiries

Inquiry Growth: % Change

Completions: Unit Growth

Employment

Placement Rates Wages

Job Growth

Job Openings

Jobs per Graduate

Competitive Intensity

Completions per Capita

Competitor Mix (e.g., Public vs. For-Profit)

Number of Competitors

Cost per Inquiry



Best Markets for the Fastest Growing Program

Using Gray’s scoring system, California has 5 of the top 8 markets for Medical Insurance Coding. §  With overall scores of 19, Napa, CA and Thousand Oaks, CA scored the highest. §  All eight markets had very strong student demand and sound employment opportunities.

1.  Includes only the top 120 markets (ranked on population). A market is defined as a 30 mile radius around the population weighted center of a CBSA.

Scoring Categories

Student Demand

Employment

Competitive Intensity

Overall Score Market1

Best Markets Highest-Scoring Markets for Medical Insurance Coding



Top Market for the Fastest Growing Program

Napa, CA show strong student demand growth and low competition.



Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

Houston remained number one among the Big 5 Cities for student inquiries into higher education. §  Houston was the only city, among the Big Five Cities, to realize positive year-over-year growth. §  Philadelphia and New York both slipped around 10% in December of 2015. §  Chicago and Los Angeles declined over 20%.

-17% -20%

-23% -27%

-23%

6%

-8%

-13%

-20% -22%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Houston, TX Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Chicago, IL Los Angeles, CA

Year-over-Year Change in December Inquiries Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012


Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.



The Fast 5 Cities for All Inquiries

Seattle, WA outpaced Wichita, KS to remain the fastest-growing city for higher-education inquiries.

§  Wichita, Boston, and Minneapolis were all newcomers to the list in December, 2015. §  New Orleans, LA joined the Fast 5 Cities in September, and has remained in the Fast 5 Cities ever since.

1. Includes only the top 75 cities by inquiry volume since January 2012. Data includes a 15-mile radius from the center of the CBSA.

-32%

-8%

-33%

-53%

-43%

28% 27% 22% 21% 19%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Seattle, WA Wichita, KS Boston, MA Minneapolis, MN New Orleans, LA

Year-over-Year Change in December Inquiries Five Fastest-Growing Cities for All Inquiries




Top Programs for the Fastest Growing Market

Computer Engineering received the highest score in Seattle-Tacoma, WA in this generic scoring system. §  Dental Assisting and Management Science followed with scores of 19 and 18, respectively.



Top Program for the Fastest Growing Market

Computer Engineering has growing student demand and good job market potential.



-23% -7%

0% 8% 9%

23% 27%

29% 52%

70%

-25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75%

Unknown Degree Associate's Campus External Certificate Bachelor's Online Branded Doctorate Master's

Year-over-Year Percentage Change in Inquiries 2014 vs. 2015 (October – December)

Inquiry Volumes by Category – Trailing 3 Months

Demand for higher education continues to shift towards higher-level degrees.

§  Over the last three months, Associate’s degrees continue to be the only category of inquiries to experience a decline.

§  Online inquiry volumes have risen 27% while on-campus inquiry volumes are flat.



Inquiry Volumes by Channel - Trailing 3 Months

Social Media enjoyed the fastest year-over-year inquiry growth of any channel.

§  Branded display channels declined 42% over the last three months. ─  Display channels were up 32% year-over-year in September, October, and November of 2015.

-42% -32%

-19% -14%

-2% 0%

11% 13% 18%

30% 41%

63% 188%

427%

-100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500%

Branded: Display Branded: Email External: Affiliate - PPC Branded: Referral External: PPL Branded: All Other Branded External: Affiliate Branded: Website Branded: PPC Branded: Interactive Branded: Organic Branded: Offline Media Branded: PPC - Inbound Call Branded: Social Media

Year-over-Year Percentage Change in Inquiries by Channel All Programs and Award Levels (October – December)



Agenda





5.  Summary

Competency-‐Based Educa2on

Susan M. Kryczka, Ed.D

What is Competency-‐Based Educa5on?

“Competency-‐based educa2on is a flexible way for students to get credit for what they know, build on their knowledge and skills by learning more at their own pace, and earn high quality degrees, cer5ficates, and other creden5als that help them in their lives and careers. Students in these programs show what they know and how well they know it through mul2ple ways of evalua5ng learning. This is another choice for learning offered at many ins2tu2ons, through a variety of programs, with full support to help students when needed.”

Why? A Vision for Competency-‐Based Educa2on

CBE enables mo2vated students to maximize their prior experience and provides a pathway to the workforce by focusing on skills and competencies that are meaningful to employers.

Partners ensure competencies are meaningful

•  Faculty and industry experts draO competencies

•  Industry Advisors validate competencies

•  Industry Partners help develop program components

•  Industry is part of program review process

Op2ons -‐ The Excelsior Academic Model

40+ YEARS

Evalua2on and Aggrega2on of Prior

Learning

PorSolio-‐based PLA

Examina2ons

Workforce/Military Training

Externally Validated Program

Competencies

Develop competencies

Develop and Review Courses & Assessments

Program Review

Mul2ple Pathways to Degree Comple2on (Mix-‐and-‐Match)

Online Courses

Credit by Exam

External Credit

Integrated Capstone Experiences

Founda2on

Prac2ce

Applica2on

Lessons Learned Area Questions We Received Mitigation and Pivots

Internal Communications

What is CBE and how is this model different from our current business model?

•  Walk and talk to stakeholders and leadership

•  Involve right stakeholders

•  Ensure alignment with mission

•  Highlight key differentiators –  Externally-validated competencies –  Enhanced capstone experiences –  Mixed-and-matched pathways

Program Operation

How do we implement a cutting-edge innovative model?

•  Be adaptable and flexible (things can change)

•  Understand effects on all business processes

•  Hire someone with PM experience

•  Leverage expertise of those before you

•  Establish rigorous program review

•  Innovate with a vision of the future model(s)

Course Design

How do we design a course with new technologies and multiple instructional design entities?

•  Involve all stakeholders from the beginning •  Create a shared vision of deliverables •  Pay attention to how the “parts” integrate •  Understand LMS and technology limitations •  Be adaptable and flexible •  Innovate with a vision of the future model(s)

Model Development

•  Joined in 2014, one of ini2al cohort of colleges and universi2es: –  17 ins2tu2ons and two public systems serving 42 campuses. –  Funded by Lumina Founda2on –  Research-‐and-‐development phase to provide an evidence-‐based approach to

advancing high-‐quality competency-‐based educa2on

•  Competency Based Educa2on Network: hbp://www.cbenetwork.org/

•  Council for Adult and Experien2al Learning (CAEL): hbp://www.cael.org/what-‐we-‐do/competency-‐based-‐educa2on

•  For more informa2on on CBE contact: Karina Kogan 513-‐255-‐2720 or [email protected]



Agenda





5.  Summary



Key Demand Trends and Observations

Inquiries for higher education appear to be stabilizing.

§  In December, total inquiry volumes were flat. §  Mature conversion rates show little change from month to month.

§  Inquiry prices have stabilized.

§  Fast growers remain branded, online, graduate degrees, and social. §  After some stability, inquires for on-campus programs fell.

§  We can now have pinpoint growth opportunities by program and market.

§  Competency-based education remains an opportunity.



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Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact: Bob Atkins

CEO Gray Associates, Inc.

[email protected]

617-366-2836