2017 07 20 v7 mbk july grayreports webinar june... · grayreports demand for higher education...

GRAYREPORTSDemand for Higher Education Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through June 2017

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2

GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.

Email: [email protected]

Who Is Gray?

Program and Market Evaluation Data

Employment

Placement RatesStudent Inquiries

Demographics

Wages

Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation

System

§ Program profiles

§ Program development

§ City targeting

§ Location selection

§ Campus consolidation

§ Price elasticity

§ Price positioning

§ Price optimization

§ Business strategy

§ Strategy implementation

§ Acquisition analysis

§ Complex analytics

Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition

Enhanced Crosswalks




Agenda

1. Google Search

2. Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Google Searches

1. National

2. Online and On-Campus

3. Age and Degree Level

4. City and Program

3. Job Postings: Operations Management

4. Program of the Month: Operations Management

5. Summary




Google Search: All Programs

Across all 5,000 keywords Gray tracks, Google search volume has been higher in every month this year vs. last.

Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 academic programs.

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National Google SearchesAll Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017




Google Search: Cost Per Click

In May, keywords associated with Health Care Administration were the most expensive.

$14

$14

$14

$14

$16

$16

$18

$19

$23

$23

$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25

Higher Education/Higher Education Administration

Business Administration and Management, General

Family Practice Nurse/Nursing

Social Work

Computer and Information Systems Security/Information Assurance

Public Administration

Marketing/Marketing Management, General

Office Management and Supervision

Psychology, General

Health/Health Care Administration/Management

National Google SearchWeighted Average Cost Per Click

Source: Gray Associates, Google Search Research.




Google Search: Keywords

In May, the top two keywords were Medical Assistant and MBA.

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

LPN

Computer Science

Electrical Engineering

Accounting

CNA

Cosmetology

Masage Therapy

RN

MBA

Medical Assistant

National Google Search Volume by Keyword2017 2016

Source: Gray Associates, Google Search Research.




Gray’s Google Brand Search Tracker*

Gray has begun tracking Google search volume by brand for over 70 brands. § More colleges are competing nationally for online students, which makes brand increasingly important.

§ Participating brands can track their monthly search volumes compared to a custom-defined peer group.

0 4,000,000 8,000,000 12,000,000 16,000,000

University of California - Los Angeles

Harvard University

Stanford University

University of Phoenix

Ohio State University-Main Campus

Yale University

Grand Canyon University

University of Michigan-Ann Arbor

Emory University

Kaplan University

Google Keyword Searches (Q1 & Q2 2017)

Ten Largest Brands in the U.S.

Source: Data from Google. * Gray currently has Brand search volume data for 70 Brands.

Public, 4 Year

Not for Profit, 4 Year

Public, 2 Year

For Profit, 4 Year




Agenda

1. Google Search


1. National



4. City and Program



5. Summary




Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

We will share data from 2015, 2016 and 2017.§ GrayReports covers January 2012 through the present.

§ We add between 600,000 and one million qualified inquiries to the dataset each month.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000


National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017




0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000


National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

After a decline of just 5% in May, inquiry volumes dropped 11% in June.

-11% YoY




80859095

100105110115120125130

Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2014Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2015Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends(Indexed to Q1 2014)

Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2017, conversion rates are already well above our 2014 baseline.§ Q1 2017 beat Q1 2014 by 25% and Q1 inquiries will continue to convert.

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2. Total includes unknown source type.

+25%




Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For March inquiries, total conversions increased 2% year-over-year.§ It now takes six months for conversions to fully mature.

§ As they finish maturing, April, May, and June are likely to beat last year.

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000


Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

2% YoY

Immature Months1




Conversion Maturity

After maturing for four months, January conversions were still down year-over-year.

§ By month 5 (May), conversions were ahead of last year by 2%.

-40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

10%

Month 1 January

Month 2 February

Month 3 March

Month 4 April

Month 5 May

Month 6 June

Year-Over-Year Change in Conversion of January Inquiries(Indexed to Q1 2014)




Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.752016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.13 $44.77 $44.89 $45.492017 $45.39 $45.30 $45.50 $45.36 $45.58 $45.91 $- $- $- $- $- $-

$30$32$34$36$38$40$42$44$46$48

Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

Since December, the average price of an External inquiry has been over $45.§ Prices started the year over $45.

§ In June, the average price approached $46 and tied for the highest price in the past three years.

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.

+2%




Student Inquiries: 10 Largest Inquiry Budgets

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Medical/Clinical Assistant

Business Administration and Management …

Medical Office Assistant/Specialist

Business Administration and Management …

Medical Insurance Coding Specialist/Coder

Psychology, General

Health/Health Care Administration/Management

HVAC Maintenance Technology/Technician.

Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller

Web Page, Digital/Multimedia and Information …

10 Largest Inquiry Budgets(June 2017 )

Among the 10 largest programs, Medical Assisting had the highest spend for affiliate leads.

Index to Max




Student Inquiries: Budget Spending for 10 Largest Programs

-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300%

Medical Insurance Coding Specialist/Coder

Medical Insurance Specialist

Accounting Technology and Bookkeeping.

Medical Assistant

Health Care Administration

Administrative Assistant

Criminal Justice

Business Administration

Registered Nursing

Computer and Information Sciences

Inquiry Budget Trends for the 10 Programs With the Largest Budgets (June 2017)

§ Half of the 10 largest programs experienced an increase in spending.

The program with the largest budget, Medical Assistant, increased 13% in June 2017 YoY.

% Change YoY




Agenda

1. Google Search


1. National



4. City and Program



5. Summary




Inquiries for Online Programs

Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for online programs grew 21% in June.§ Inquiries for online programs have increased every month in 2017.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017+21% YoY




Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs

Conversions for online higher education programs increased 91% in March.§ This is the eighth consecutive increase in conversions.

§ The immature months have already passed last year’s volumes.

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,000


Inquiry Conversions for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

+91% YoY

Immature Months1




Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

In 2017, inquiries for on-campus academic programs have continued their decline.

§ In June, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 10% year-over-year.

2012

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-10% YoY1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.




Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs

Conversions for on-campus programs fell 14% year-over-year in March.§ This marks the seventh consecutive month of declining conversions.

§ The three immature months have a lot of ground to make up.

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-14% YOY1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

Immature Months1




Agenda

1. Google Search


1. National



4. City and Program



5. Summary




Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Year-Over-Year Change

Associate’s degrees were the fastest-growing degree level.§ All other degree levels experienced a decline in June inquiries year-over-year.

-15%

-13%

-4%

-1%

28%

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Undergraduate certificate

Master's degree

Bachelor's degree

Doctoral degree

Associate's degree

Change in InquiriesJune 2017 YoY




Agenda

1. Google Search


1. National



4. City and Program



5. Summary




Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

All of The Big 5 Cities fell year-over-year.§ The pace of decline has slowed in four markets.

§ Inquiries for the Philadelphia market declined after growth in the prior year.

-34%

-17%

-32%

6%

-41%

-3% -5% -7% -11% -12%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Atlanta, GA New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL

Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in June Inquiries

2016 YoY % Change 2017 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.




The Big 5 Programs: June Growth

Inquiries for the Big 5 Programs shrank again, but four outperformed last month.§ Business Admin (Associate’s -) performed the best (-13%), after being the largest decline last month.

§ Registered Nursing was down 14%.

§ Criminal Justice/Police Science was down 17%.

§ Bachelor’s in Business Admin continued to drop.

-13% -14% -17%

-19% -20%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Business Admin: Associate's -

Registered Nursing Criminal Justice Business Admin: Bachelor's +

Medical Assistant

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in June Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change




-78% -70%

-58% -54% -53%

-100%

-50%

0%

Electrical, Electronic and Communications

Engineering Technology/Technician

Radiologic Technology/Science -

Radiographer

Welding Technology/Welder

Curriculum and Instruction

Computer and Information Systems

Security/Information Assurance

The Slow 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in June Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change

The Slow 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Slowest Inquiry Growth

All five of the slowest-growing programs1 shrank more than 50%.§ Electrical Comm. Engineering Tech. and Curriculum and Instruction repeated on the Slow 5 Programs.

1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.




715%

546%

269%

116% 71%

-50% 50%

150% 250% 350% 450% 550% 650% 750% 850%

Human Services, General

Health Services/Allied Health/Health

Sciences

Medical Insurance Coding

Specialist/Coder

Medical Office Assistant/Specialist

Counseling Psychology

The Fast 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in June Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change

The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew more than 70%.§ At 715%, Human Services grew the fastest.

§ Second on the list, Health Sciences, grew nearly 550%.

§ Medical Insurance Coding, last month’s fastest growing, grew 269%.

§ The last two, both new members of the Fast 5, are Medical Office Assistant and Counseling Psychology.

1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.




Agenda

1. Google Search


1. National



4. City and Program



5. Summary




Job Postings: Annual Job Counts

Demand for Operations Management personnel has been volatile in recent years, rising and declining by 16% or more from year to year.

81,744

68,398

80,862

66,094

76,584

51,073

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD

Job Postings

Job PostingsOperations Management and Supervision

Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. July 1, 2016-June 30,2017SOCs: First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers, Logisticians, and General and Operations Managers were used in this analysis. Source: Employer Sites




Job Postings: Sample Salary

There is almost an even distribution across the four different salary ranges.

849

792

1,054

1,010

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

Less than $35,000

$35,000 to $49,999

$50,000 to $74,999

More than $75,000

Salary Distribution (Advertised)

§ 96% of the job postings did not have any salary information.

§ The mean real-time salary is $63,000.

§ The median real-time salary is $54,000.

SOCs: First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers, Logisticians, and General and Operations Managers were used in this analysis. Source: Employer Sites

Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. July 1, 2016-June 30,2017

Number of Postings Citing the Salary Level




Job Postings: Education (Minimum Advertised)

Among job postings that specify education, almost 60% cite a bachelor’s degree.

31%

5%

59%

3%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

High school or vocational training

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Doctoral degree

Most Frequently Cited Education (Minimum Advertised)






Job Postings: Job Titles

Production Supervisor is the most common title in Operations Management and Supervision.

Job Titles (Top 10) Count % to TotalProductionSupervisor 4,975 5.68%OperationsManager 3,982 4.54%GeneralManager 2,927 3.34%

OperationsSupervisor 2,586 2.95%ManagerInTraining 2,577 2.94%AssistantManager 1,448 1.65%PlantManager 1,360 1.55%

SupplyChainAnalyst 1,285 1.47%Supervisor 981 1.12%

LogisticsAnalyst 908 1.04%Total 1,351






Job Postings: Skill Clusters

Postings for Operations Managers typically cite general business and finance skills.§ People Management leads the list.

§ Scheduling, Budgeting, Strategy, Business Management, and Performance Management are in the top 10.

17%

18%

19%

20%

21%

26%

29%

30%

39%

44%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Business: Performance Management

Business: Business Strategy

Business: Business Management

Business: Business Process and Analysis

Business: Operations Management

Customer and Client Support: Basic Customer Service

Finance: Budget Management

Administration: Scheduling

Information Technology: Microsoft Office and Productivity Tools

Business: People Management

Most Frequently-Cited Skill Clusters in Job Postings

OtherBusiness/Finance






Job Postings: Employers

JP Morgan Chase Company is the largest employer for this field.

1,427

1,215

1,065

831

770

740

729

712

701

647

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600

JP Morgan Chase Company

CVS Caremark

Staples

Mitsubishi

Citi

Gap Inc.

FedEx

JCPenney

24 Hour Fitness

Panera Bread

Employers by Volume of Job Postings

§ The largest employer accounts for 1.8% of the job postings.






Agenda

1. Google Search


1. National



4. City and Program



5. Summary




National Program Rank

Nationally, using an employment-only scoring system, Operations Management and Supervision is the highest-scoring program,.




Program Scorecard: Employment

The volume of employment and job postings drove the high score.

§ The trends are also positive and the wages high enough to gain some additional points.




Program Scorecard




Market Ranking

New York and Los Angeles score significantly higher than the other markets for Operations Management.




Agenda

1. Google Search


1. National



4. City and Program



5. Summary




Key Demand Trends and Observations

§ Overall inquiry volumes continue to decline 11%

§ Conversions of March inquiries are now 2% above last year’s volume

§ Some trends are strongly diverging by segment

─ Inquiries for on-campus programs fell 10%, while inquires for online grew 21%

─ Conversions for on-campus fell 14%, but online programs are up 91%

§ Human Services was the fastest-growing program

§ June’s Program of the Month was based on it’s strong employment opportunities

─ Operations Management and Supervision scores well using our employment data

─ It also appears to be a strong profession, with growing employer demand and many advertised salaries over $50,000




Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact:Bob Atkins

CEOGray Associates, Inc.

[email protected]@Gray_Associates

617.366.2836




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2017 07 20 v7 mbk july grayreports webinar june... · grayreports demand for higher education...

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