2017 november grayreports - demand trends for higher education

GRAYREPORTSDemand for Higher Education Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through November 2017

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Program and Market Evaluation Data

Employment

Placement RatesStudent Demand

Demographics

Wages

Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation System

§ Program profiles

§ Program location

§ Market selection

§ Location selection

§ Campus consolidation

§ Price elasticity

§ Price positioning

§ Price optimization

§ Business strategy

§ Strategy implementation

§ Complex analytics

Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition

Enhanced Crosswalks

Employer Requirements




Agenda

1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches

1. National

2. Online and On-Campus

3. Degree Level

4. City and Program

2. Emerging Programs

3. Program of the Month: Medical Insurance Specialist

4. Summary




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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

Total inquiry volumes have been declining for several years.§ Declining unemployment rate

§ Falling interest in post-secondary education

§ Marketers shifting away from paid inquiries




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2015 2016 2017


Year-to-date inquiry volume is off by 10.3%. § November is the lowest volume of student inquiries for higher education in 2017.

§ The month is usually one of the two lowest of the year, but also fell below last year.

-10.3%




0

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200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

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900,000

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2015 2016 2017


Year-over-year student inquiry volumes fell 7% in November 2017.

-7%




80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Q1 2014

Q2 2014

Q3 2014

Q4 2014

Q1 2015

Q2 2015

Q3 2015

Q4 2015

Q1 2016

Q2 2016

Q3 2016

Q4 2016

Q1 2017

Q2 2017

Q3 2017

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends(Indexed to Q1 2014)

Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2017, conversion rates are well above our 2014 baseline.§ Q2 2017 beat the baseline by 30%.

§ Despite being immature, Q3 2017 is already 45% above the baseline.

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2. Total includes unknown source type.

+45




Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For August inquiries, total conversions increased 15% year-over-year.§ September, October, and November are poised to beat last year.

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000


Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

+15% YoY

Immature Months1




Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.81 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.752016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.13 $44.77 $44.89 $45.492017 $45.38 $45.28 $45.50 $45.38 $45.52 $45.78 $45.22 $44.57 $45.09 $46.16 $45.90 $-

$30$32$34$36$38$40$42$44$46$48

Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

The average price of an external inquiry is $45.90.§ In November, prices were up 2.2% year-over-year.

§ Since March, the average price paid for an inquiry has been above 2016 levels.

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.

+2.2%




Student Inquiries: 10 Largest Inquiry Budgets

1.00

0.90

0.58

0.45

0.39

0.33

0.31

0.30

0.29

0.27

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00

Medical/Clinical Assistant

Business Administration and Management

Medical Office Assistant

Psychology

Medical Insurance Coding Specialist

Health Care Management

HVAC Maintenance Technology

Medical Insurance Specialist

Web/Digital/Multimedia Design

Accounting Technology and Bookkeeping

10 Largest Inquiry Budgets(November 2017)

Medical/Clinical Assistant now has the highest spending on inquiries.

Index to Max




Student Inquiries: Budget Spending for 10 Largest Programs

40% 2%

0% -4%

-10% -14% -15%

-22% -28%

-33%

-45% -35% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45%

Medical Insurance Coding Specialist

Medical Office Assistant

Health Care Management

Medical Insurance Specialist

Psychology

HVAC Maintenance Technology

Web/Digital/Multimedia Design

Medical/Clinical Assistant

Accounting Technology and Bookkeeping

Business Administration and Management

November 2017 Inquiry Budget Trends10 Programs With the Largest Budgets

§ The program with the largest budget, Medical Insurance Coding Specialist, increased 40% year-over-year.

In November, spending increased for two of the 10 programs with the largest budgets.

% Change YoY




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Inquiries for Online Programs

Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for online programs jumped 2% year-over-year in November.§ After three consecutive declining months, volumes have grown in back-to-back months.

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Inquiries

Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017

+2%




Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs

Conversions for online higher education programs increased 17% in August.§ This is the 13th consecutive increase in conversions.

§ September is on track to surpass last year.

1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

Immature Months1

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,000


Inquiry Conversions for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017+17% YoY




Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

In 2017, inquiries for on-campus academic programs have fallen every month in 2017.

§ In November, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 20% year-over-year.

2012

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-20% YoY




Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs

Conversions for on-campus programs fell 6% year-over-year in July.§ This marks the 12th consecutive month of declining conversions.

§ After an 18% drop in July, August was only down 6% when compared to 2016 levels.

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-6% YoY1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

Immature Months1




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Year-Over-Year Change

Bachelor’s degrees were the fastest-growing degree level.§ The higher degree levels continued to outperform lower-level degrees.

-30%

-17%

3%

7%

24%

-35% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25%

Associate's degree

Undergraduate certificate

Master's degree

Doctor's degree

Bachelor's degree

Change in InquiriesNovember 2017 YoY




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

All of The Big 5 Cities shrank year-over-year.§ Chicago was down the most in October (-12%), but shrank the least in November.

§ The other four cities performed worse this month than they did in October.

-17%

-9%

9%

1%

-29%

-4% -8% -8%

-11% -11%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Chicago, IL Los Angeles, CA Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Houston, TX

Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in November Inquiries

2016 YoY % Change 2017 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.




The Big 5 Programs: November Growth

All of The Big 5 Programs were down year-over-year in November.

-2%

-5% -5%

-12%

-20%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Business Admin: Bachelor's +

Medical Assistant Criminal Justice Registered Nursing Business Admin: Associate's

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in November Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change




84%

41% 31%

26% 20%

0%

50%

100%

Human Services Medical Insurance Coding Specialist

Counseling Psychology

Health Sciences, General

Christian Studies

The Fast 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in November Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change

The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew 20% or more.§ Human Services and Christian Studies are both repeats from last month.

§ Healthcare programs continue to be a common growth area based on student interest.

1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




IPEDS Completions

Business is the largest program, four related programs are also among the 20 largest.

285278

237133

10885

8274

514745444241414139393837

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Business Admin. and MgmtLiberal Arts

Registered NursingPsychology

General StudiesBiology/Biological Sciences

Associate's in BusinessAccountingSocial Work

FinanceEnglish Language and Lit.

Criminal JusticeSpeech Communication and Rhetoric

Political Science and Gov'tMarketing/Marketing Mgmt

EconomicsMechanical Engineering

Elementary Education and TeachingLaw

Sociology

20 Largest Programs 2016 Completions (000s)

Business Related

Health & Human Service

Science

Liberal Arts Related

Criminal Justice

Law

Source: Gray Associates, IPEDS National completions for award levels Associate’s, Bachelor’s, Master’s and Doctoral.




IPEDS Completions

Seven of the largest programs are in Liberal Arts and related fields.

285278

237133

10885

8274

514745444241414139393837

0 50 100 150 200 250 300










Sociology


Business Related


Science


Criminal Justice

Law





IPEDs Completions

Surprisingly, only two Healthcare programs make the top 20.

285278

237133

108

8274

514745

42414141

39

37

0 50 100 150 200 250 300










Sociology


Business Related


Science


Criminal Justice

Law





IPEDS Completions

Science, Criminal Justice, and Law had one program each in the top 20.

Science

285278

237133

10885

8274

51474544424141413939

37

0 50 100 150 200 250 300










Sociology

20 Largest Programs2016 Completions (000s)

Business Related


Science


Criminal Justice

Law


Teaching




Student Demand: Google Search

Students searched most frequently for Business Administration programs in Q3 2017.§ 10 Healthcare programs were among the 25 most-frequently searched.

§ Trades took five of the 25 slots.

2,0341,309

1,1781,1241,118

1,034861

779719713

606592

542541

512505499

473457445437

386374373370

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Business Admin. and MgmtCosmetology

Nursing Assistant/Patient Care AideAccounting

Registered NursingMedical Assistant

LawCommercial Truck and Bus Driver

Criminal JusticeLicensed Practical Nurse

PsychologyChemistry

Welding Technology/WelderEducation

Culinary Arts/Chef TrainingDental Hygiene/Hygienist

Public Relations/Image ManagementElectrical/Electronics Engin'g

Physical Therapy/TherapistBible/Biblical Studies

Physician AssistantHuman Resources Management

EMT ParamedicPhlebotomy Tech/Phlebotomist

Osteopathic Medicine/Osteopathy

25 Largest Programs Google Search Volume (000s)

Source: Gray Associates Data on Google Search Volumes for 200 largest programs in the US. Timeframe: Q3 2017

Business Related


Science


Criminal Justice and Law

Trades

Engineering and Other




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Program Scorecard: Student Demand

Medical Insurance Coding Specialist has strong student demand.




Program Scorecard: Student Demand

Medical Insurance Coding Specialist growth is more uncertain: inquiries are up, but search and completions are down.




Program Scorecard: Competition

There is above-average competition, much of it from online programs.




Program Scorecard: Employment and Fit

There is a large number of job postings, but the need for formal education is unclear and wages are low.




Medical Insurance Specialist: Job Postings

After growing each year since 2012, Job Postings are likely to finish below 2016.

78,342

95,035105,782

147,158 149,456

119,780

0

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD

Job Postings

Job PostingsMedical Insurance Specialist

Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. December 1, 2016-November 30, 2017SOCs: Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks (43-9041) and Medical Records and Health Information Technicians (29-2071) were used in this analysis.




Medical Insurance Specialist: Salary

Salaries are typically less than $50,000 for Medical Insurance Specialist-related jobs.

10,921

7,331

3,482

2,196

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

Less than $35,000

$35,000 to $49,999

$50,000 to $74,999

More than $75,000

Salary Distribution (Advertised)

§ The mean salary is $44,000.

§ The median salary is $36,000.

Note: Most job postings do not include salary data.

Number of Postings Citing the Salary Level

Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. December 1, 2016-November 30, 2017

SOCs: Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks (43-9041) and Medical Records and Health Information Technicians (29-2071) were used in this analysis.




Medical Insurance Specialist: Education (Minimum Advertised)

Among job postings that specify education, nearly half cite high school vocational training.

45%

31%

24%

0%

0%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

High school or vocational training

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Doctoral degree

Most-Frequently Cited Minimum Education

Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. December 1, 2016-November 30, 2017

SOCs: Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks (43-9041) and Medical Records and Health Information Technicians (29-2071) were used in this analysis.




Medical Insurance Specialist: Employer Requirements

Many jobs require communication and other general skills, this one is focused on records management.

0.990.99

0.950.800.80

0.790.75

0.640.64

0.610.61

0.590.57

0.560.53

0.430.430.43

0.420.42

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10

Process medical recordsTake messages, notes, shorthand, and dictation

Maintain dental or medical recordsDocument medical prognosis

Maintain record of medication or equipment dispensed to patientTranscribe spoken or written information

Process medical billing informationIndex information resources

Process healthcare paperworkManage clinical or social case records

Prepare official health documents or recordsRetrieve files or chartsRecord medical history

Maintain customer and account recordsRecord vital statistics or other health information

Maintain medical facility recordsMaintain personnel records

Maintain repair or maintenance recordsOrganize individual, group, or organizational account invoices

Prepare correspondence relating to financial discrepancies

Medical Insurance Specialist: Primary Work ActivitiesFit with Job

Low Fit with Job HighSource: SkillsEngine, Gray’s Program Evaluation SystemCIPs: Medical Insurance Coding Specialist (51.0713)




Medical Insurance Specialist: Tools Employees Need to Know

Medical Insurance Specialist workers need strong skills in office technology. § Microsoft Office comprises five of the 18 tools Medical Insurance Specialist workers need to know.

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76767676767676767676

737373

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Healthcare common procedure coding system HCPCS softwareMicrosoft ExcelMicrosoft Word

Web browser softwareWord processing software

Desktop computersLaser facsimile machines

Medical condition coding softwareMedical procedure coding software

MEDITECH softwareMicrosoft Access

Microsoft Office softwareScanners

10-key calculatorsMicrosoft PowerPoint

Billing softwareElectronic medical record EMR software

Tablet computers

Medical Insurance SpecialistTools Employees Need to Know

Low Fit with Job HighSource: SkillsEngine, Gray’s Program Evaluation SystemCIPs: Medical Insurance Coding Specialist (51.0713)




Competitors: Medical Insurance Specialist

Most of the market leaders are for-profits with Certificate programs.

Campus Sector StateAward Level 2014 2015 2016

Allen School-Phoenix Private for-profit, 2-year AZ Certificate 375 623 414Florida Technical College Private for-profit, 4-year or above FL Certificate 149 134 228Ivy Tech Community College Public, 2-year IN Certificate 132 194 209Grantham University Private for-profit, 4-year or above KS Associates 43 141 200American Career College-Los Angeles Private for-profit, 2-year CA Certificate 155 124 125Bryant & Stratton College-Online Private for-profit, 4-year or above NY Associates 33 58 117American Career College-Ontario Private for-profit, 2-year CA Certificate 93 86 113Southern Careers Institute-San Antonio Private for-profit, less-than 2-year TX Certificate 53 109 99American Career College-Anaheim Private for-profit, 2-year CA Certificate 95 99 96UEI College-Bakersfield Private for-profit, less-than 2-year CA Certificate 0 84 89Kaplan College-Las Vegas Private for-profit, 2-year NV Certificate 83 89 83Everett Community College Public, 2-year WA Certificate 75 8 81UEI College-Fresno Private for-profit, less-than 2-year CA Certificate 0 65 77Herzing University-Madison Private for-profit, 4-year or above WI Certificate 85 101 76Kaplan College-San Antonio-Ingram Private for-profit, 2-year TX Certificate 96 78 68American Career College-Long Beach Private for-profit, less-than 2-year CA Certificate 47 89 66Drexel University Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above PA Certificate 33 30 63Rasmussen College-Minnesota Private for-profit, 4-year or above MN Certificate 32 162 63UEI College-Gardena Private for-profit, less-than 2-year CA Certificate 0 68 63American Career College at St Francis Private for-profit, less-than 2-year CA Certificate 0 11 62




Program Scorecard




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Key Demand Trends and Observations

§ The decline in total inquiries slowed from 10% to 7%.

§ Conversion rates and conversions continued to rise.

─ Conversion rates are up 45% vs. benchmark.

─ August conversions rose 15%.

§ Prices for inquiries are slowly rising: up 2.2% in November.

§ Online programs continue to lead the turnaround, though growth slowed this month.

─ Inquiries for online programs grew 2%.

─ Conversions rose 17%.

§ On-ground continued a rapid decline.

─ Inquiries for on-ground fell 20%.

─ Conversions dropped 6%, which is an improvement over last month’s 18% decline.

§ Good market analysis uses several data sources, which illuminate distinct sectors.─ The largest programs in IPEDS are quite different from Google’s.

─ IPEDS includes more “college-first” decisions.

─ Google data emphasizes more “occupation-first” decisions.




Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact:Bob Atkins

CEOGray Associates, Inc.

[email protected]@Gray_Associates

617.366.2836




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