2017 october grayreports - demand trends for higher education

GRAYREPORTSDemand for Higher Education Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through October 2017

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2

GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.

Email: [email protected]

Who Is Gray?

Program and Market Evaluation Data

Employment

Placement RatesStudent Demand

Demographics

Wages

Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation System

§ Program profiles

§ Program location

§ Market selection

§ Location selection

§ Campus consolidation

§ Price elasticity

§ Price positioning

§ Price optimization

§ Business strategy

§ Strategy implementation

§ Complex analytics

Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition

Enhanced Crosswalks

Employer Requirements




Agenda

1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches

1. National

2. Online and On-Campus

3. Degree Level

4. City and Program

2. Emerging Programs

3. Program of the Month: Human Services

4. Summary




0

100,000

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700,000

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900,000

1,000,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

Total inquiry volumes have been declining for several years.§ Declining unemployment rate

§ Falling interest in post-secondary education

§ Marketers shifting away from paid inquiries




0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000



2015 2016 2017


Year-to-date inquiry volume is off by 10%.

-10%




0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000



2015 2016 2017


October was much better than average, only dropping 3%.

-3%




Conversion Maturity

It takes six months for inquiries to “mature.”

§ 60% of conversions take place in the month in which the inquiry is received.

§ It takes six months for 95% of conversions to take place.

-40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

10%

Month 1 January

Month 2 February

Month 3 March

Month 4 April

Month 5 May

Month 6 June

Month 7 July

Month 8 August

Month 9 September

Conversion of 2017 January InquiriesVersus 2016 January Conversions

60%

78% 87% 90% 89%

95% 97% 99% 100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Percentage of Conversions

Months After Inquiry

Inquiries: Time to MaturityConversions of January 2017 Inquiries




80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Q1 2014

Q2 2014

Q3 2014

Q4 2014

Q1 2015

Q2 2015

Q3 2015

Q4 2015

Q1 2016

Q2 2016

Q3 2016

Q4 2016

Q1 2017

Q2 2017

Q3 2017

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends(Indexed to Q1 2014)

Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2017, conversion rates are well above our 2014 baseline.§ Q2 2017 beat the baseline by 30%.

§ Despite being immature, Q3 2017 is already 40% above the baseline.

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2. Total includes unknown source type.

+40%




Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For July inquiries, total conversions increased 17% year-over-year.§ August has already reached 2016 levels.

§ September and October are on track to beat last year.

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000


Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

+17% YoY

Immature Months1




Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.81 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.752016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.13 $44.77 $44.89 $45.492017 $45.39 $45.30 $45.50 $45.36 $45.51 $45.76 $45.19 $44.52 $45.17 $46.15 $- $-

$30$32$34$36$38$40$42$44$46$48

Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

For the first time, the average price of an external inquiry is above $46.§ In October, prices were up 3% year-over-year.

§ This is the highest price in the Gray dataset, which started in 2012.

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.

+3%




Student Inquiries: 10 Largest Inquiry Budgets

1.00

0.98

0.63

0.57

0.50

0.45

0.42

0.33

0.31

0.31

0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00

Business Administration (Bach.+)

Medical/Clinical Assistant

Medical Office Assistant/Specialist

Business Administration (Assoc.-)

Psychology, General

Medical Insurance Coding Specialist

Health Care Administration

HVAC Maintenance Technology

Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller

Web/Digital/Multimedia Design

10 Largest Inquiry Budgets(October 2017)

Business Administration now has the highest spending on inquiries.

Index to Max




Student Inquiries: Budget Spending for 10 Largest Programs

61% 34%

22% 10%

6% 5%

0% -8% -9%

-21%

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%


Psychology, General

Medical Insurance Coding Specialist

HVAC Maintenance Technology

Business Administration (Bach.+)

Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller

Medical Office Assistant/Specialist

Medical/Clinical Assistant

Web/Digital/Multimedia Design

Business Administration (Assoc.-)

October 2017 Inquiry Budget Trends10 Programs With the Largest Budgets

§ The program with the largest budget, Business Administration (Bach.+), increased 6% year-over-year.

In October, spending increased in 7 of the 10 programs with the largest budgets.

% Change YoY




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Inquiries for Online Programs

Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for online programs grew 6% year-over-year in October.§ After three consecutive declining months, volumes are growing again.

0

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Inquiries

Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017

+6%




Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs

Conversions for online higher education programs increased 31% in July.§ This is the 12th consecutive increase in conversions.

§ August has already passed last year.

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,000


Inquiry Conversions for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

+31% YoY

Immature Months1




Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

In 2017, inquiries for on-campus academic programs continued their decline.

§ In October, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 15% year-over-year.

2012

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-15% YoY




Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs

Conversions for on-campus programs fell 19% year-over-year in July.§ This marks the 11th consecutive month of declining conversions.

§ But, August might reach last year’s levels.

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-19% YOY1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

Immature Months1




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Year-Over-Year Change

Doctoral degrees were the fastest-growing degree level.§ The higher degree levels continued to outperform lower-level degrees.

-9%

-8%

2%

4%

10%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Associate's degree

Undergraduate certificate

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Doctor's degree

Change in InquiriesOctober 2017 YoY




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

One of The Big 5 Cities grew year-over-year.§ Similar to last month, Los Angeles saw the only increase, growing 3% in October.

§ Although down, all four of the other cities shrank less in October than they did in September.

-28% -25%

-8%

5%

-34%

3%

-4% -6% -7% -12%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Los Angeles, CA Houston, TX New York, NY Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL

Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in October Inquiries

2016 YoY % Change 2017 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.




The Big 5 Programs: October Growth

Declines slowed in all of The Big 5 Programs.

7%

-4%

-8% -8% -10% -12%

-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

10%

Business Admin: Bachelor's +

Criminal Justice Business Admin: Associate's

Medical Assistant Registered Nursing

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in October Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change




129%

95% 83%

52% 48%

0%

50%

100%

150%

Hospitality Administration

Human Services Health Services Administration


Christian Studies

The Fast 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in October Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change

The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew nearly 50% or more.§ Hospitality Administration and Health Services Administration are both repeats from last month.

§ This month is very encouraging considering one of the Fast 5 in September was declining.

1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Gray’s New Program Tracker

Since we began tracking new programs, most announcements are for health and business programs.

8888888899991010101111111212121213

1720

3339

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Associate'sinRegisteredNursing/RegisteredNurse.Bachelor'sinCivilEngineering,General.

Bachelor'sinSportandFitnessAdministration/Management.Master'sinAccounting.

Master'sinHealth/HealthCareAdministration/Management.UndergradCertificateinBrewingandFermentation

UndergradCertificateinComputerandInformationSystemsSecurity/Information…UndergradCertificateinDataScienceandAnalysis

Bachelor'sinAccounting.Bachelor'sinPublicHealth,General.

Master'sinRegisteredNursing/RegisteredNurse.UndergradcertificateinWeldingTechnology/Welder.

Bachelor'sinKinesiologyandExerciseScience.Bachelor'sinMechanicalEngineering.

UndergradCertificateinMedical/ClinicalAssistant.Associate'sinComputerandInformationSystemsSecurity/InformationAssurance.

Master'sinDataScienceandAnalysisUndergradCertificateinNursingAssistant/AideandPatientCareAssistant/Aide.

Bachelor'sinPsychology,General.DoctoralinEducationalLeadershipandAdministration,General.

DoctoralinPhysicalTherapy/Therapist.Master'sinPhysicianAssistant.

Bachelor'sinComputerandInformationSystemsSecurity/InformationAssurance.Bachelor'sinBusinessAdministrationandManagement,General.

DoctoralinNursingPractice.Master'sinBusinessAdministrationandManagement,General.

Bachelor'sinRegisteredNursing/RegisteredNurse.

NewProgramAnnouncementsviaGoogleDailyAlerts

NewProgramsbyAnnouncementFrequency– AllAwardLevels,6-DigitCIP-Level

Health

Business

Emerging




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Human Services: Job Postings

In recent years, Job Postings for Human Services-related jobs have been volatile.

31,379

47,384 46,859

59,44854,939

39,340

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD

Job Postings

Job PostingsHuman Services

Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. November 1, 2016-October 31, 2017SOCs: Social and Human Service Assistants (21-1003) and Social and Community Service Managers (11-9151) were used in this analysis.




Human Services: Salary

Salaries are typically less than $50,000 for Human Services-related jobs.

3,383

2,886

1,963

1,073

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000

Less than $35,000

$35,000 to $49,999

$50,000 to $74,999

More than $75,000

Salary Distribution (Advertised)

§ The mean salary is $48,000.

§ The median salary is $40,000.

Note: Most job postings do not include salary data.

Number of Postings Citing the Salary Level





Human Services: Education (Minimum Advertised)

Among job postings that specify education, 62% of job postings cite a Bachelor’s degree.

19%

8%

62%

10%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

High school or vocational training

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Doctoral degree

Most Frequently Cited Minimum Education





Human Services: Employer Requirements

Postings for Human Services require a mix of Health Care and Business skills.

0.990.99

0.940.77

0.650.550.550.550.55

0.500.48

0.440.440.44

0.430.420.42

0.380.370.37

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10

Counsel clients or patients regarding personal issues or …Match clients to public or community services

Advise individuals regarding marriageAdvise clients or community groups on health issues

Help clients get needed services or resourcesEstablish relationships with clients and customersMaintain relationships with clients and customers

Maintain relationships with stakeholdersMaintain relationships with vendors

Counsel clients or patients regarding substance abuse issuesPlan social behavior learning activities

Identify interrelationships among individuals or social groupsIdentify interrelationships among social statistics or indicators

Plan esteem building activities for childrenCollect personal information

Refer patients or clients to community services or resourcesAdvise individuals regarding financial matters

Counsel people regarding grief situationsMaintain cooperative working relationships with community …Prepare technical reports or presentations associated with …

Human Services: Primary Work ActivitiesFit with Job

Source: Gray Associates Program Evaluation System: Employer RequirementsSOCs: Social and Human Service Assistants (21-1003) and Social and Community Service Managers (11-9151) were used in this analysis.

Low Fit with Job High




Human Services: Tools Employees Need to Know

Human Services workers need strong skills in office technology. § Microsoft Office comprises 6 of the 17 tools Human Services workers need to know.

999999999999

78787878

625454

494949

39

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Desktop computersMicrosoft Excel

Microsoft Office softwareMicrosoft Word

Personal computersWeb browser software

Laptop computersMicrosoft AccessMicrosoft Outlook

Multi-line telephone systemsMicrosoft PowerPoint

10-key calculatorsPointClickCare softwareComputer laser printers

Laser facsimile machinesPhotocopying equipment

Database software

Human ServicesTools Employees Need to Know

Source: Gray Associates’ Program Evaluation System, Employer Needs: ToolsSOCs: Social and Human Service Assistants (21-1003) and Social and Community Service Managers (11-9151) were used in this analysis.

Low Fit with Job High




Program Scorecard: Student Demand

Human Services has more inquiries than 98% of other programs. Most inquiries are for online programs.




Program Scorecard: Competition

Most programs have fewer competitors.




Competitors: Human Services

Most of the market leaders are for-profits with very large Associate’s and Bachelor’s programs.

Institution Sector City 2014 2015 2016 Grand Canyon University Private for-profit, 4-year or above Phoenix 285 352 456University of Phoenix Private for-profit, 4-year or above Phoenix 622 459 338University of Phoenix Private for-profit, 4-year or above Phoenix 663 420 300University of Phoenix Private for-profit, 4-year or above Tempe 540 399 293University of Phoenix Private for-profit, 4-year or above Tempe 576 365 261Laureate Education, Inc. Private for-profit, 4-year or above Minneapolis 61 155 241Lindsey Wilson College Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above Columbia 0 0 223Columbia College Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above Columbia 207 216 212Columbia College Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above Columbia 169 176 196University of Phoenix Private for-profit, 4-year or above Sacramento 271 179 155University of Phoenix Private for-profit, 4-year or above Tucson 262 193 142University of Phoenix Private for-profit, 4-year or above Tucson 279 177 126Capella Education Company Private for-profit, 4-year or above Minneapolis 150 124 123Kaplan Higher Education Corporation Private for-profit, 4-year or above Los Angeles 117 120 123Kaplan Higher Education Corporation Private for-profit, 4-year or above Los Angeles 113 113 112Kaplan Higher Education Corporation Private for-profit, 4-year or above Milwaukee 103 105 107Wilmington University Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above New Castle 70 92 107University of Phoenix Private for-profit, 4-year or above San Diego 183 121 105University of Wisconsin System Public, 4-year or above Oshkosh 114 115 105Education Management Corporation Private for-profit, 4-year or above Phoenix 0 81 102Kaplan Higher Education Corporation Private for-profit, 4-year or above Milwaukee 99 99 98Wayland Baptist University Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above Plainview 92 75 91State University of New York System Public, 2-year Syracuse 0 0 91Post University Private for-profit, 4-year or above Waterbury 49 46 75University of Phoenix Private for-profit, 4-year or above Fresno 111 73 63




Program Scorecard: Employment and Fit

There is a large number of job postings, but the need for formal education is unclear.




Program Scorecard




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Key Demand Trends and Observations

§ The decline in total inquiries slowed from 10% to 3%.

§ Conversion rates and conversions are rising.

─ Conversion rates jumped 40% vs. benchmark.

─ July conversions rose 17%.

§ Online programs led the turnaround.

─ Inquiries for online programs grew 6%

─ Conversions rose 31%

§ On-ground continued a rapid decline.

─ Inquiries for on-ground fell 15%

─ Conversions dropped 19%

§ Gray’s Program Evaluation System is an increasingly robust tool.─ Multiple data sources on student demand, employment, and competition

─ Now includes data on employer needs, including work activities and tools




Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact:Bob Atkins

CEOGray Associates, Inc.

[email protected]@Gray_Associates

617.366.2836




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2017 october grayreports - demand trends for higher education

Data & Analytics