2018 january gray rga january grayreports webinar january grayreports - de… · 2016 2017 2018...

GRAYREPORTSDemand for Higher Education Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through January 2018

617.366.2838 www.GrayAssociates.com 2

GRAY For more information please contact Gray Associates.

Email: [email protected]

Who Is Gray?

Program and Market Evaluation Data

Employment

Placement Rates

Student Demand

Demographics

Wages

Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation System

§ Program profiles

§ Program location

§ Market selection

§ Location selection

§ Campus consolidation

§ Price elasticity

§ Price positioning

§ Price optimization

§ Business strategy

§ Strategy implementation

§ Complex analytics

Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition

Enhanced Crosswalks

Employer Requirements

X-walk+




Agenda

1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches

1. National

2. Online and On-Campus

3. Degree Level

4. City and Program

2. Program of the Month: Cybersecurity

3. Program Productivity

4. Summary




0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels

2016 2017 2018

Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

Total inquiry volumes have been declining for several years.§ Declining unemployment rate

§ Falling interest in post-secondary education

§ Marketers shifting away from paid inquiries

Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System




0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000



2016 2017 2018


Inquiries decreased an average of 10% year-over-year in 2017. § December was the lowest volume of student inquiries for higher education in 2017.

-10%





0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000



2016 2017 2018


Year-over-year student inquiry volumes rose 3% in January of 2018: the first increase since 2012.

+3%





80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Q1 2014

Q2 2014

Q3 2014

Q4 2014

Q1 2015

Q2 2015

Q3 2015

Q4 2015

Q1 2016

Q2 2016

Q3 2016

Q4 2016

Q1 2017

Q2 2017

Q3 2017

Q4 2017

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends(Indexed to Q1 2014)

Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2017, conversion rates were well above our 2014 baseline.§ Q3 2017 beat the baseline by 50%.

§ Q4 2017 regressed, still beating the baseline by 18%, it will likely improve a little as stragglers convert.

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2. Total includes unknown source type.

+50





Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For October inquiries, total conversions are up 11% year-over-year.§ October has already surpassed 2016 levels.

§ November and December are currently down 11% and 20% year-over-year, but are expected to approach 2016 conversion rates.

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000


Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels

2016 2017 2018

+11% YoY

Immature Months1





Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.13 $44.77 $44.89 $45.492017 $45.38 $45.28 $45.50 $45.38 $45.52 $45.79 $45.23 $44.57 $45.09 $46.08 $45.92 $46.732018 $47.27 - - - - - - - - - - -

$30$32$34$36$38$40$42$44$46$48$50

Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

The average price of an external inquiry is $45.70.§ In January, prices were up 4.2% year-over-year.

§ For 10 out of the past 12 months, the average price paid for an inquiry has been above the prior year’s level.

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

+4.2% YoY




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018

Inquiries for Online Programs

Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeOn average, student demand for online programs grew 6% year-over-year in 2017.

+6%





Inquiries for Online Programs

Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for online programs jumped 14% year-over-year in January.§ After three consecutive declining months, volumes have grown in each of the past four months.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018

+14%





02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,000


Inquiry Conversions for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2016 2017 2018

Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs

Conversions for online higher education programs increased 3.5% in October.§ 14 of the past 15 months prior to November 2017 have shown an increase in conversions.

1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

Immature Months1

+3.5% YoY





Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

On average, student demand for on-campus programs fell 14% year-over-year in 2017.

2012

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2016 2017 2018

-14%





Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

In January, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 11% year-over-year.

2012

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2016 2017 2018

-11% YoY





Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs

Conversions for on-campus programs fell 21% year-over-year in October.§ This marks the 14th consecutive month of declining conversions.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2016 2017 2018

-21% YoY1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

Immature Months1





Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Year-Over-Year Change

In January, higher degree levels outperformed the lower-level degrees.

-10%

-8%

11%

16%

20%

-35% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25%

Associate's degree

Undergraduate certificate

Bachelor's degree

Doctor's degree

Master's degree

Change in InquiriesJanuary 2018 YoY





Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program


3. Summary




Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities, Trailing 12 Month Results

For the 12 months ending on January 31, inquiries in all of The Big 5 Cities declined at least 7%.

-18% -17%

-12%

-7% -7%

-25%

-15%

-5%

5%

Houston, TX Chicago, IL Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Los Angeles, CA

Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012Change in Trailing Twelve Month Inquiries vs. Prior Twelve Months

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System




Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

In January 2018, the decline slowed in The Big 5 Cities and a couple of cities grew.§ Chicago was down the most this month (-13%), after falling 15% YOY in December.

-7% -11%

-9% -10%

-30%

5%

-3%

5%

-13%

-1%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL Houston, TX

Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in January Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change 2018 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System




The Big 5 Programs: Trailing Twelve Month Growth

For the 12 months ending on January 31, all of The Big 5 Programs declined at least 17%.

-17% -18% -20% -21%

-23% -25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Medical Assistant Registered Nursing Business Admin: Bachelor's +

Criminal Justice Business Admin: Associate's

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012Change in Trailing Twelve Month Inquiries vs. Prior Twelve Months




The Big 5 Programs: January Growth Year-over-Year

Only two of The Big 5 Programs fell in January.

15%

2% 0%

-9%

-14% -15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Business Admin: Bachelor's +

Criminal Justice Business Admin: Associate's

Registered Nursing Medical Assistant

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in January Inquiries

2018 YoY % Change




278%

126%

82% 73% 66%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

Computer Programming

Health Care Administration

Computer Science Cybersecurity Human Services

The Fast 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in January Inquiries

2018 YoY % Change

The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew 60% or more.§ Computer Programming, Healthcare Administration, and Human Services are repeats from last month.

§ Healthcare and Computer-related programs continue to grow.

1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.





Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Cybersecurity: Job Postings

In 2017, Job Postings mentioning cybersecurity were up 39% year-over-year.

73,621 80,137

131,609 138,509

192,474

29,238

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD

Job Postings

Job PostingsCybersecurity

Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2018. February 1, 2017-January 31, 2018Job postings that included as cybersecurity or cyber security were used in this analysis.




Cybersecurity: Salary

Salaries are typically more than $75,000 for Computer Programmer-related jobs.

551

559

1,638

7,993

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

Less than $35,000

$35,000 to $49,999

$50,000 to $74,999

More than $75,000

Salary Distribution (Advertised)

§ The mean salary is $100,000.

§ The median salary is $102,000.

Note: Most job postings do not include salary data.

Number of Postings Citing the Salary Level





Cybersecurity: Education (Minimum Advertised)

Among job postings that specify education, over 80% cite a Bachelor’s degree.

9%

4%

83%

3%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

High school or vocational training

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Doctoral degree

Most Frequently Cited Minimum Education





Cybersecurity: Employer Requirements

0.990.990.990.990.99

0.840.840.84

0.740.740.74

0.690.69

0.630.63

0.550.530.530.530.53

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10

Debug computer programs, software, or systemsMaintain complex computer databases

Maintain computer software or codeSolve software problems

Troubleshoot computer database problemsAssist users with software or hardware problems

Solve computer hardware problemsTroubleshoot computer network problems

Design data processing systemsDesign data security systems

Write computer programs or codeMaintain network systems

Troubleshoot computer hardware problemsDevelop computer or information security policies or procedures

Develop computer, network, or database policies, procedures, …Develop records management systems

Configure computer networksInstall software applications

Develop simple financial data repositories or databasesDevelop simple informational data repositories or databases

Cybersecurity: Primary Work ActivitiesFit with Job

Low Fit with Job High

Source: SkillEngine, Gray’s Program Evaluation SystemCIPs: Cyber Security/Information Assurance (11.1003)




Program Scorecard: Student Demand

Cybersecurity has more inquiries than 95% of other programs. Inquiries are split for modality.




Program Scorecard: Competition

There is significant competition.




Competitors: Cybersecurity

Among the largest programs, there is a mix of sectors and award levels.

Campus Sector StateAward Level 2014 2015 2016

University of Maryland-University College Public, 4-year or above MD Masters 510 614 577University of Maryland-University College Public, 4-year or above MD Bachelors 316 440 465Western Governors University Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above UT Bachelors 186 287 406University of Phoenix-Arizona Private for-profit, 4-year or above AZ Bachelors 540 454 298Western Governors University Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above UT Masters 337 282 246University of Phoenix-Arizona Private for-profit, 4-year or above AZ Certificate 20 24 230Edmonds Community College Public, 2-year WA Certificate 35 56 202University of Maryland-University College Public, 4-year or above MD

Postbaccalaureate Certificate 255 163 183

American Public University System Private for-profit, 4-year or above WV Bachelors 142 175 180Baker College of Flint Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above MI Bachelors 26 135 139ECPI University Private for-profit, 4-year or above NC Bachelors 170 125 132Capella University Private for-profit, 4-year or above MN Masters 128 109 112

Naval Postgraduate School Public, 4-year or above CAPostbaccalaureate Certificate 71 85 109

Anne Arundel Community College Public, 2-year MD Associates 86 89 103Clover Park Technical College Public, 4-year or above WA Certificate 62 93 103St Petersburg College Public, 4-year or above FL Certificate 13 36 102American Public University System Private for-profit, 4-year or above WV Masters 62 91 101ECPI University Private for-profit, 4-year or above VA Bachelors 124 91 96Anne Arundel Community College Public, 2-year MD Certificate 256 300 88Wilmington University Private not-for-profit, 4-year or above DE Bachelors 58 86 78




Program Scorecard: Employment and Fit

There is a large number of job postings, primarily for people with a Bachelor’s degree.




Program Scorecard




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




National Program Productivity

Only 6% of programs have over 99 completions. 48% have fewer than 10.

6% 7%

39%

48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Greater than 99 50-99 10-49 Less than 10

Percentage of Programs or Completions

Program Size(Number of Completions)


Percentage of Programs

Source: Gray analysis of IPEDS completions





45% of students graduate from the largest programs.

45%

18%

30%

7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%





Percentage of Completions






6% 7%

39%

48%45%

18%

30%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%





Percentage of Programs Percentage of Completions





Western Governors University – Enrollment Growth

WGU’s enrollment grew an average of 28% annually from 2005 to 2016.

8,735 11,797 13,362 14,10919,399

33,950

45,879

58,08767,013

83,977

101,229

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016

Annual EnrollmentWestern Governors University

Source: IPEDS




Western Governors University - FAQ

Western Governors University was founded in 1997, launched its first degree programs in 1999, and has quickly grown to become one of the largest institutions of higher education in the U.S.

§ WGU has achieved double-digit growth in enrollment and completions.─ From 2005-2016 enrollment grew an average of 28% annually, from less than 10,00 students in 2005-2006 to over 100,000

students in 2015-2016.

─ Completions have grown an average of 39% annually since 2010, increasing from 2,271 in 2010 to 16,444 in 2016.

─ WGU’s largest program is Registered Nursing (Bachelor’s), with 4,753 completions in 2016, up from just 136 completions in 2010.

§ WGU’s programs are exclusively online.

§ The university targets working professionals.─ 92% of undergraduate students were 25 years or older in the fall of 2016.

─ 97% of graduate students were 25 years or older.

§ In the fall of 2016, 64% of students were women and 36% were men.




Western Governors University – Program Productivity


52%

7%

24%17%

96%

2% 3% 0%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%




Western Governors University's Program Productivity

Percentage of Programs Percentage of Completions




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program

2. Program of the Month: Computer Programming


4. Summary




Key Demand Trends and Observations

§ For the first time since 2012, inquiry volumes increased, rising 3%.

§ Conversion rates and conversions are rising.

─ Q3 conversion rates jumped 50% vs. Gray’s benchmark.

─ Q4 will also exceed our benchmark, but by a much narrower margin

─ October conversions rose 11%

§ Online programs led the turnaround.

─ Inquiries for online programs grew 14% YoY, up from 6% YoY growth last month

─ Conversions rose 3.5%

§ On-ground continued a rapid decline.

─ Inquiries for on-ground fell 11%

─ Conversions dropped 21%

§ Program Productivity is a serious issue–and an opportunity

─ Adding a single large program could increase enrollment by hundreds of students.

─ Reducing the number of small programs could free-up funds to re-invest in growth.

─ Refining the portfolio will also better-align programs with careers and community needs.

§ Gray’s Program Evaluation System is an increasingly robust tool.

─ Multiple data sources on student demand, employment, and competition

─ Now includes data on employer needs, including work activities and tools




Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact:Bob Atkins

CEOGray Associates, Inc.

[email protected]@Gray_Associates

617.366.2836




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2018 january gray rga january grayreports webinar january grayreports - de… · 2016 2017 2018...

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