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Future Climate Simulations

NOC simulations

Completed

• ORCA-100, NEMO v3.2, reanalysis, 1966-2006

– Utilised in Yool et al. (2011)

• ORCA-025, NEMO v3.2, reanalysis, 1988-2008

– Based on Popova et al. (2010)

• ORCA-100, NEMO v3.2, HadGEM2-ES, 1860-2099

– Utilised in Yool et al. (2013)

• ORCA-025, NEMO v3.5, HadGEM2-ES, 1980-2099

– Based on Yool et al. (2013)

Future forecast

• HadGEM2-ES forcing

• Initialised at 1860 (high-resolution spun-off of low-resolution at 1980)

• RCP8.5 scenario (strong warming and ocean acidification)

NEMO-MEDUSA at year 2050

Comparison low vs high resolution NEMO

Sea surface temperature DJF JJA

Low resolution

High resolution

Mixed layer depth DJF JJA

Low resolution

High resolution

Surface diatom concentration DJF JJA

Low resolution

High resolution

Surface dissolved inorganic nitrogen DJF JJA

Low resolution

High resolution

Integrated non-diatom primary production DJF JJA

Low resolution

High resolution

Air-sea CO2 exchange DJF JJA

Low resolution

High resolution

2000s vs 2050s

High resolution NEMO