getting to know your community …what the numbers say!

Getting to Know Your Community

…What the Numbers Say!

By:Suzette Barta, Assistant Extension Economist

OSU, Stillwater

Susan Trzebiatowski, Student Assistant OSU, Stillwater

Stan Ralstin, Community Development SpecialistOSU, Enid

Dirk Webb, County Extension DirectorOSU, Cordell

Mike Woods, Extension EconomistOSU, Stillwater

Joe Williams, IFRO DirectorOSU, Stillwater

- Department of Agricultural Economics -- Division of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources -

- Oklahoma State University -

Contents

I. Getting to Know Oklahoma

II. Getting to Know Washita County

III. Getting to Know Your Retail Markets

Washita Co

Washita County Pop Quiz

a. The original location had been set aside as tribal lands.

b. The water supply was unsatisfactory.

c. The courthouse building was built on the new site, so the town moved.

Washita Co

What forced the relocation of Cordell one mile to the southwest (its present location)?

Answer: b. The water supply was unsatisfactory.

Part I

Getting to Know Oklahoma!

Population Loss

•Oklahoma’s population increased by 9.7% from 1990-2000, according to the Census Bureau.

•The US population increased by about 13.2%.

•As a result, Oklahoma’s number of Representatives to the House decreased from 6 to 5.

Employment Opportunities

If I could change one thing about my community, it would be:

“…better paying jobs and more of them.”

Pushmataha County Community Survey, AE-02024, March 2002

Old Frisco Depot in Antlers

Low Income

Why does Per Capita Income in Oklahoma lag the rest of the nation? Some possibilities:

•Low Educational Attainment

•Cost of Living

•Cultural Attitudes

•Different Occupational Mix than U.S.

•Inadequate Transportation Systems

Oklahoma League of Economists, Spring 1999 Policy Survey of Members

Population Trends... • Across the United States, population growth in the

“bread basket” states is slow relative to the rest of the country.

• In Oklahoma, the fastest growing counties are those in the central and eastern portions of the state--often bordering Tulsa and Oklahoma Counties.

• Western counties in Oklahoma are losing population.• In general, non-metro counties are losing population

relative to metro counties.

...In Oklahoma and Nationwide

20.0 to 66.3

10.0 to 19.9

5.0 to 9.9

0 to 4.9

Percent Change in Population by State: 1990 to 200014.0

20.140.0

29.666.3

10.5 10.1

8.6 9.7

5.55.5

3.64.5

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Percent Change in Population by County: 1990-2000

U.S. = 13.2

50.0 - 191.025.0 - 49.9

0.0 - 13.1-9.9 - -0.1

-42.3 - -10.0

13.2 - 24.9

Population Change 1990-2000

ALFALFA

BECKHAM

BLAINE

CANADIAN

CARTER

CHOCTAW

CIMARRON

CLEVELAND

COMANCHE

COTTON

CUSTER

ELLISGARFIELD

HARPER

JACKSON

JEFFERSON

KIOWA LATIMER

MURRAY

MUSKOGEE

NOWATA

OKLAHOMA

OTTAWA

PAWNEE

PUSHMATAHA

ROGER MILLS

ROGERS

SEQUOYAH

STEPHENSTILLMAN

WAGONER

WASHITA

WOODWARD WA

SHALLMAR-

KINGFISHER

BEAVERTEXAS

LINCOLN

OKFUSKEE

McINTOSH

MCCLAIN

GARVIN

HUGHES

PITTSBURG

HASKELL

LE FLORE

JOHNSTON

PONTOTOC

MCCURTAIN

More than 9% decrease

-9% to 0

0 to 4%

4% to 12%

12% to 20%

Percent Decrease

Percent Increase

More than 20%

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau

Percent of Population Living in Non-Metropolitan Areas for Each State

0%-14% Non-metro Population

51% or more Non-metro Population

8.2%8.6%

30.1%30.7%

39.2%43%

66.1%67.3%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis for 1999.

Population: Metro vs. Non-Metro

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

1980 1990 2000

Metro Non-Metro

57% 59% 61%

3,025,487 3,145,576 3,450,654

ALFALFA

BECKHAM

BLAINE

CANADIAN

CARTER

CHOCTAW

CLEVELAND

COMANCHE

COTTON

CUSTER

ELLISGARFIELD

GREERHA

HARPER

JACKSON

JEFFERSON

KIOWA LATIMER

MURRAY

MUSKOGEE

NOWATA

OKLAHOMA

OTTAWA

PAWNEE

PUSHMATAHA

ROGER MILLS

ROGERS

SEQUOYAH

STEPHENSTILLMAN

WAGONER

WASHITA

WOODWARD

SHALLMAR-

KINGFISHER

BEAVERTEXAS

LINCOLN

OKFUSKEE

McINTOSH

MCCLAIN

GARVIN

HUGHES

PITTSBURG

HASKELL

LE FLORE

JOHNSTON

PONTOTOC

MCCURTAIN

CIMARRON

Over 930

Average for the state of Oklahoma = 50.2

100-388

Population Density for Oklahoma Counties Population per Square Mile (2000)

Less than 10

ALFALFA

BECKHAM

BLAINE

CANADIAN

CARTER

CHOCTAW

CLEVELAND

COMANCHE

COTTON

CUSTER

ELLISGARFIELD

GREERHA

HARPER

JACKSON

JEFFERSON

KIOWA LATIMER

MURRAY

MUSKOGEE

NOWATA

OKLAHOMA

OTTAWA

PAWNEE

PUSHMATAHA

ROGER MILLS

ROGERS

SEQUOYAH

STEPHENSTILLMAN

WAGONER

WASHITA

WOODWARD

SHALLMAR-

KINGFISHER

BEAVERTEXAS

LOGANCREEK

LINCOLN

OKFUSKEE

McINTOSH

MCCLAIN

GARVIN

HUGHES

PITTSBURG

HASKELL

LE FLORE

JOHNSTON

PONTOTOC

MCCURTAIN

Equal to State Average

Below State Average

CIMARRON

State Average: 25.9%

Above State Average

Percent of Total Population Under 18 Years

ALFALFA

BECKHAM

BLAINE

CANADIAN

CARTER

CHOCTAW

CLEVELAND

COMANCHE

COTTON

CUSTER

ELLISGARFIELD

GREERHA

HARPER

JACKSON

JEFFERSON

KIOWA LATIMER

MURRAY

MUSKOGEE

NOWATA

OKLAHOMA

OTTAWA

PAWNEE

PUSHMATAHA

ROGER MILLS

ROGERS

SEQUOYAH

STEPHENSTILLMAN

WAGONER

WASHITA

WOODWARD

SHALLMAR-

KINGFISHER

BEAVERTEXAS

LOGANCREEK

LINCOLN

OKFUSKEE

McINTOSH

MCCLAIN

GARVIN

HUGHES

PITTSBURG

HASKELL

LE FLORE

JOHNSTON

PONTOTOC

MCCURTAIN

Above State Average

Below State Average

CIMARRON

State Average: 13.2%

Percent of Total Population Over 65 Years

Employment Trends...

• Employment growth has been greatest in the eastern half of the state.

• Western counties are losing jobs relative to eastern counties.

• Unemployment rates are higher in non-metropolitan counties.

...In Oklahoma

ALFALFA

BECKHAM

BLAINE

CANADIAN

CARTER

CHOCTAW

CLEVELAND

COMANCHE

COTTON

CUSTER

ELLISGARFIELD

GREERHA

HARPER

JACKSON

JEFFERSON

KIOWA LATIMER

MURRAY

MUSKOGEE

NOWATA

OKLAHOMA

OTTAWA

PAWNEE

PUSHMATAHA

ROGER MILLS

ROGERS

SEQUOYAH

STEPHENSTILLMAN

WAGONER

WASHITA

WOODWARD

SHALLMAR-

KINGFISHER

BEAVERTEXAS

LINCOLN

OKFUSKEE

McINTOSH

MCCLAIN

GARVIN

HUGHES

PITTSBURG

HASKELL

LE FLORE

JOHNSTON

PONTOTOC

MCCURTAIN

CIMARRON

Percentage Employment Growth 1990-2000

Over 22% Growth

10%-22% Growth

0 to 10% Growth

Negative Growth

Shades of purple indicate growth that is slower than the state’s growth of 22%.

Oklahoma Unemployment Rates, 1990-2001, State, Metro & Non-Metro Areas

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

NonMetro State Metro

Employment Growth in Metro and Non-metro Oklahoma, 1995-2000

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

Metro Non-Metro

Source: Regional Economic Information System, BEA

Manufacturing Employment for Non-metropolitan Areas in Oklahoma, 1980-2000

Source: Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis

ALFALFA

BECKHAM

BLAINE

CANADIAN

CARTER

CHOCTAW

CLEVELAND

COMANCHE

COTTON

CUSTER

ELLISGARFIELD

GREERHA

HARPER

JACKSON

JEFFERSON

KIOWA LATIMER

MURRAY

MUSKOGEE

NOWATA

OKLAHOMA

OTTAWA

PAWNEE

PUSHMATAHA

ROGER MILLS

ROGERS

SEQUOYAH

STEPHENSTILLMAN

WAGONER

WASHITA

WOODWARD

SHALLMAR-

KINGFISHER

BEAVERTEXAS

LINCOLN

OKFUSKEE

McINTOSH

MCCLAIN

GARVIN

HUGHES

PITTSBURG

HASKELL

LE FLORE

JOHNSTON

PONTOTOC

MCCURTAIN

CIMARRON

Manufacturing Employment as a Percent of Total Employment for Oklahoma Counties, 1999

Greater than 20%

15.1% to 20%

9.63% to +15%

Less than 9.63%

State percent is 9.63%.

U.S. percent is 11.76%

ALFALFA

BECKHAM

BLAINE

CANADIAN

CARTER

CHOCTAW

CLEVELAND

COMANCHE

COTTON

CUSTER

ELLISGARFIELD

GREERHA

HARPER

JACKSON

JEFFERSON

KIOWA LATIMER

MURRAY

MUSKOGEE

NOWATA

OKLAHOMA

OTTAWA

PAWNEE

PUSHMATAHA

ROGER MILLS

ROGERS

SEQUOYAH

STEPHENSTILLMAN

WAGONER

WASHITA

WOODWARD

SHALLMAR-

KINGFISHER

BEAVERTEXAS

LINCOLN

OKFUSKEE

McINTOSH

MCCLAIN

GARVIN

HUGHES

PITTSBURG

HASKELL

LE FLORE

JOHNSTON

PONTOTOC

MCCURTAIN

CIMARRON

Greater than 1.0

0.75 - 0.99

0.50 – 0.74

1999 County Trade Pull Factors

0.25 – 0.49

Less than 0.25

Source: Oklahoma Business Bulletin, October 2000

Income Trends...

• Oklahoma per capita income falls behind most of our surrounding states.

• Non-metro PCI in Oklahoma lags metro PCI.• Although all counties show some growth in

income, Central Oklahoma and the far eastern counties show the fastest growth in total personal income.

...In Oklahoma

ALFALFA

BECKHAM

BLAINE

CANADIAN

CARTER

CHOCTAW

CLEVELAND

COMANCHE

COTTON

CUSTER

ELLISGARFIELD

GREERHA

HARPER

JACKSON

JEFFERSON

KIOWA LATIMER

MURRAY

MUSKOGEE

NOWATA

OKLAHOMA

OTTAWA

PAWNEE

PUSHMATAHA

ROGER MILLS

ROGERS

SEQUOYAH

STEPHENSTILLMAN

WAGONER

WASHITA

WOODWARD

SHALLMAR-

KINGFISHER

BEAVERTEXAS

LINCOLN

OKFUSKEE

McINTOSH

MCCLAIN

GARVIN

HUGHES

PITTSBURG

HASKELL

LE FLORE

JOHNSTON

PONTOTOC

MCCURTAIN

CIMARRON

Total Personal Income Percentage Growth,1990-2000.

Greater than 60%

41%-60%

21%-40%

Shades of green indicate growth that is slower than the state’s rate of growth of 60%.

Per Capita Income for Oklahoma and Surrounding States: 1990-2000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Arkansas

Colorado

Kansas

Missouri

New Mexico

Oklahoma

Ok Metro

Ok Non-metro

Source: Regional Economic Information System, BEA

OK-Metro

OK-Nonmetro

Average Wage per Job, 1999

$21,276

$27,132$25,336

$32,711

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

U.S. OK Total OK Metro OK Non-Metro

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Housing Cost Index

0.40.5

US OK Tulsa OKC

ALFALFA

BECKHAM

BLAINE

CANADIAN

CARTER

CHOCTAW

CLEVELAND

COMANCHE

COTTON

CUSTER

ELLISGARFIELD

GREERHA

HARPER

JACKSON

JEFFERSON

KIOWA LATIMER

MURRAY

MUSKOGEE

NOWATA

OKLAHOMA

OTTAWA

PAWNEE

PUSHMATAHA

ROGER MILLS

ROGERS

SEQUOYAH

STEPHENSTILLMAN

WAGONER

WASHITA

WOODWARD

SHALLMAR-

KINGFISHER

BEAVERTEXAS

LINCOLN

OKFUSKEE

McINTOSH

MCCLAIN

GARVIN

HUGHES

PITTSBURG

HASKELL

LE FLORE

JOHNSTON

PONTOTOC

MCCURTAIN

CIMARRON

Top Ten Counties with Greatest Percent of Total Personal Income from Farm Earnings, 2000

ALFALFA

BECKHAM

BLAINE

CANADIAN

CARTER

CHOCTAW

CLEVELAND

COMANCHE

COTTON

CUSTER

ELLISGARFIELD

GREERHA

HARPER

JACKSON

JEFFERSON

KIOWA LATIMER

MURRAY

MUSKOGEE

NOWATA

OKLAHOMA

OTTAWA

PAWNEE

PUSHMATAHA

ROGER MILLS

ROGERS

SEQUOYAH

STEPHENSTILLMAN

WAGONER

WASHITA

WOODWARD

SHALLMAR-

KINGFISHER

BEAVERTEXAS

LINCOLN

OKFUSKEE

McINTOSH

MCCLAIN

GARVIN

HUGHES

PITTSBURG

HASKELL

LE FLORE

JOHNSTON

PONTOTOC

MCCURTAIN

CIMARRON

Employment growth and per capita income growth greater than US average.

PCI Average Annual Growth Rate for the US =5.06%

Employment Average Annual Growth Rate for the US= 2.01%

Employment growth greater than US average. Per capita income growth less than US average.

Employment growth less than US average. Per capita income growth greater than US average.

Employment growth and per capita income growth less than US average.

Average Annual Employment and Per Capita Income Growth by County 1990-2000: Relative to U.S. Average.

Part II. Getting to Know Washita County

a. Johnson and Harrel

b. Johnson and Johnson

c. Rogers and Hammerstein

Washita Co

Who donated the land for the courthouse, which straddles the highway and a section line?

Answer: a. A.J. Johnson and J.C. Harrel each donated half the land needed for a courthouse on either side of the section line, later used to demark the highway.

Population for Washita County

1980 1990 2000 % Change

1990-2000

Bessie 245 242 190 -21.49%Burns Flat 2,431 1,022 1,782 74.36%Canute 676 542 524 -3.32%Colony 185 163 147 -9.82%Cordell 3,301 2,968 2,867 -3.40%Corn 542 548 591 7.85%Dill City 649 628 526 -16.24%Foss 188 143 127 -11.19%Rocky 242 189 174 -7.94%Sentinel 1,016 982 859 -12.53%Remainder 4,323 4,014 3,721 -7.87%Washita County 13,798 11,441 11,508 0.58%

Population of Washita County, Oklahoma, 1990-2000

11,000

11,100

11,200

11,300

11,400

11,500

11,600

11,700

11,800

11,900

12,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Washita County

Population, Housing Units, and Average Household Size for Washita County, Oklahoma 2000

Avg. Household Size for Oklahoma: 2.49 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Population Total Housing Units

Avg HH Size

Washita Co. 11,508 5,452 2.50Burns Flat 1,782 903 2.86Canute 524 242 2.45Cordell 2,867 1,427 2.39Corn 591 226 2.52Dill City 526 253 2.52Sentinel 859 411 2.48Other towns 638 328 2.26

Percent of Total Housing Units in Washita County, 2000

Dill City6.7%

Sentinel10.8%

Others8.7%

Corn6.0%

Burns Flat23.8%

Canute6.4%

Cordell37.7%

Total Housing Units in Washita County – 5,452 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Washita County Population for Age Groups 65 & Over and Under Age 19, 1990-2000

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

Under 19 Over 65

Source: Woods and Poole, 2002

Percent of Total Enrollment in Washita County, Oklahoma, 2000

High school28%

College or graduate school

Kindergarten8%

Elem school (1-8)52%

Total Enrollment for Washita County – 775 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Percent of Education Attained in Washita County for Persons Age 25 and Over, 2000

Graduate or Prof Degree

No High School Diploma

High School Graduate

Bachelors Degree11%

Total persons 25 years and over in Washita County – 1,848 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Percent of Education Attained in Oklahoma for Persons Age 25 and Over, 2000

No High School Diploma

19%Bachelor's

degree13%

High School Graduates

Grad or Prof degree

Total persons 25 years and over in Oklahoma – 2,203,173 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Total Employment for Washita County, OK, 1990-2002

4,0004,200

4,4004,600

4,8005,000

5,2005,400

5,6005,800

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Source: Oklahoma Employment Security Commission

Unemployment Rates for Washita County and Oklahoma, 1990-2002

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Washita OK

Source: Oklahoma Employment Security Commission

Location Quotients for Washita County, 1995-2000

Ag Ser

Trans P

ub Util

F.I.R.E

Servic

Fed. G

St & L

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Per Capita Income for Washita County and Oklahoma

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Washita County Oklahoma

Transfer Payments by Type for Washita County, Oklahoma, 1990-2000

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Retirement Medical Pymts Income MaintenanceUnemployment Veterans Pymts

Sales Subject to Sales Tax for Washita County Fiscal Years 1992-2002

$20,000,000

$22,000,000

$24,000,000

$26,000,000

$28,000,000

$30,000,000

$32,000,000

$34,000,000

$36,000,000

$38,000,000

$40,000,000

Washita Co

Source: ORIGINS http://origins.ou.edu

Total Farm Labor and Proprietors’ Income for Washita County, Oklahoma

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

Not available for 1996Source: Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Selected Farm Characteristics of Washita County, Oklahoma, 1997

Number of Farms 994

Avg. Farm Size (acres) 589

% Land Area in Farms 91.2%

Avg. Age of Operator 55.8

Avg. Mkt. Value of Ag. Products Sold per Farm

$69,161

Source: 1997 Census of Agriculture

Part III. Getting to Know Your Retail Markets!

a. Cordell

b. Foss

c. Cloud Chief

Washita Co

What town was the first county seat for Washita County?

Answer: c. Cloud Chief. After a county vote that moved the county seat to Cordell, people in Cloud Chief refused to move. A bill signed to law by President Theodore Roosevelt moved the county seat to Cordell and settled the argument.

Population for Cordell and Washita County, 1980-2000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Washita Co.

Cordell

Sales Tax Collectionsfor Cordell, OK, 1980-2002

$300,000.00

$350,000.00

$400,000.00

$450,000.00

$500,000.00

$550,000.00

$600,000.00

$650,000.00

$700,000.0019

2%-3%4%-3%

Sales Tax Collectionsfor Burns Flat, OK, 1980-2002

$50,000.00

$100,000.00

$150,000.00

$200,000.00

$250,000.0019

Sales Tax Collectionsfor Sentinel, OK, 1980-2002

$20,000.00

$40,000.00

$60,000.00

$80,000.00

$100,000.00

$120,000.0019

Estimated Taxable Sales for Cordell and Washita County, FY 1992-2002

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

County Sales Cordell Cordell Inflation-Adjusted

County estimate source: ORIGINS http://origins.ou.edu

What isTrade Area Capture?

• Trade Area Capture estimates the number people that shop in your town annually.

• TAC is estimated from your town’s estimated taxable sales figures obtained from the Oklahoma Tax Commission.

Trade Area Capture for Cordell, OK 1980-2002

What is a Pull Factor?• A Pull Factor is an index calculated so that trade

areas can be compared across different cities and towns.

• A Pull Factor is the town’s Trade Area Capture Divided by the town’s Population.

• A PF > 1.0 implies that a town is drawing in shoppers over and above its own population.

• A PF < 1.0 implies that a town is not capturing the retail dollars of its own residents.

Pull Factors for 5 Towns in Washita County, OK, 1980-2002

0.000.20

0.400.600.80

1.001.201.401.60

1.802.00

CordellFossCanuteSentinelBurnsFlat

Pull Factors for Remaining Townsin Washita County, 1980-2002

Bessie

Dill City

Pull Factors By Average City Size

Less 1000 1000-5000 5000-1000010000-25000 25000-50000 Greater than 50000

Pull Factors for Cordell & for Cities with Population 1,000-5,000: 1980-2002

Cordell 1,000-5,000

•Sales gap coefficients are interpreted in exactly the same way as pull factors.

•The only difference is that 8 distinct retail categories are analyzed--based on SIC codes.

SIC Codes for Gap Analysis

Description SIC CodeBuilding, Gardening & Merchandise 52General Merchandise 53Food Stores 54Automobile Dealers & Gas Stations 55Apparel & Accessory Stores 56Furniture & Home Furnishings 57Eating & Drinking Places 58Miscellaneous Retail 59

Gap Analysis for Cordell:1998-2002

52-Bldg 53-Gen 54-Food 55-Auto 56-Cloth 57-Furn 58-Rest 59-Misc

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Gap Analysis for Burns Flat:1998-2002

52-Bldg 53-Gen 54-Food 55-Auto 56-Cloth 57-Furn 58-Rest 59-Misc

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

a. True

b. False

Washita Co

The Carnegie Library was constructed with the assistance of funds provided by the steel magnate Andrew Carnegie.

Answer: a. True. Today the building is home to the Washita County Historical Museum and is on the National Register of Historic Places.

Questions?

getting to know your community …what the numbers say!

nonmetro population

nationwide slide

oklahoma counties

population relative

population growth

population trends

percent of population

us population

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