half year analysis of part i crime in camden city
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Half Year Analysis of Part I Crime in Camden CityJanuary – June 2006
Source: UCR Crime Data
Overall Part I Crime AnalysisBased on a six year analysis of Camden City Part I crime, first half year crime totals are a good predictor of the overall crime totals for a year.
Previous analysis by WRI showed that 1st quarter totals were not reliable predictors of what a yearly total will be. This analysis suggests that half year totals can reliably predict full year totals.
As this presentation shows, the three lowest Part I crime years all had the lowest first half year totals. Likewise the three highest first half crime years all had the highest full year totals.The rate of crime in the second half of each of the years analyzed were very comparable to the first half totals allowing for a firm prediction for the second half of 2006.
While crime is up in 2006, it is still well below the previous 5 year averageOverall crime for the first half of 2006 showed an 11% increase from the first six months of 2005. However, 2006 Part I crime is still well below (18%) the average of the 2000 through 2004. Aggravated assaults and homicides were the only two crimes which have decreased from 2005 to 2006.Rape was the only crime in which 2006 has not shown a decrease in comparison to the 2000-2004 five year average.
Note: (Part I Crime is comprised of the most violent, serious and frequently occurred offenses (murder and non-negligent manslaughter, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson) that also serve as indicators of the nation's crime experience)
Comparison of Total Number of Part I Crimes by YearJanuary-June 2000-2006
Overall, the first half of 2006 compares favorably to the first halves of prior years
While the first half of 2006 saw an overall increase in part I crime when compared to 2005, when compared to prior years it is the third lowest year of the decade.
Aggravated Assault and Homicide showed decreases from the year prior.
0200400600800
1000120014001600
HOMICID
E
RAPE
ROBBERY
AGGRAVATED ASSA
ULT
BURGLARYLARCENY THEFT
MOTOR VEHIC
LE THEFT
ARSON
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
27 2622 23
16
25
12
32
05
101520253035404550
HOMIC
IDE
RAPE
2003 2004 2005 2006
Homicide and Rape Crimes by YearJanuary-June 2000-2006
First Half of the Year Total Number of Part I Crimes January-June
11%21%
16%
18%
24%
-14%-7%-19%-13%-19%
2%
28%
-25%
Percent Difference
from2005 to 2006
3,832
109
589
1,261
574
45614174112129
343
25
19
Average for Jan-June
2000-2004
2,82063
491
1,026
445
44312378139103
311
25
16
Jan-June2005
-18%-30%
-4%
-4%
-4%
-16%-18%-15%8%
-36%
-9%
28%
-37%
Percent Difference From the
Average of 2000-2004 to 2006
3,144GRAND TOTAL
76ARSON
567MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT
1,206LARCENY THEFT
552BURGLARY
3821156312183
AGGRAVATED ASSAULTGun
Knife or Cutting InstrumentOther Dangerous Weapons
Aggravated (hands, feet, fists)
317ROBBERY
32RAPE
12HOMICIDE
Jan-June2006
Classification of Offenses
Camden City Monthly Average of Part I Crimes January-June
524
13
95
201
92
64
19
11
20
14
53
5
2
Monthly Average for Jan-June
2006
470
11
82
171
74
74
21
13
23
17
52
4
3
Monthly Average Jan-June
2005
639
18
98
210
96
76
24
12
19
22
57
4
3
Monthly Average for Jan-June
2000-2004
MONTHLY AVERAGE GRAND TOTAL
ARSON
MOTOR VEHICLE THEFT
LARCENY THEFT
BURGLARY
AGGRAVATED ASSAULT
GunKnife or Cutting
InstrumentOther Dangerous
WeaponsAggravated (hands, feet,
fists)
ROBBERY
RAPE
HOMICIDE
Classification of Offenses
Half Year Analysis of Part I CrimesJanuary- December
2000-2006
**Note: This yearly crime total for 2006 was estimated by averaging the last six years for an estimated .98% increase from the half year total of 3145.
When comparing the estimated yearly rate of Part I crime for 2006 to past years, the 2006 rate compares favorably to the years past and is most similar to the rate in 2002.
3401 3640 3139 3239 36642820 3145
3340 3512 32834166 3623
2992
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Second HalfFirst Half
6741 7152
64227405
7287
61376542
Half Year Analysis of Homicides January- December
2000-2006
Note: Estimates are based upon similar first half year totals average.
The number of homicides in the first six months of 2006 was relatively low. If the trend seen in prior years continues, the total homicide rate for the year will be very similar to the rate in 2001, the lowest of the decade.
15 1220
27 22 16 12
1113
1414 27
19
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Second HalfFirst Half
2625
34
41
49
34
26
Half Year Analysis of Rape January- December
2000-2006
Note: Estimates are based upon similar first half year totals average.
Rape rates for the first half of 2006 have been relatively high. When comparing 2006 to other years with similar first half numbers, it appears that 2006 will be a high year, but not exceed 2000.
31 24 19 26 23 25 32
38
3426
3033 19
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Second HalfFirst Half
69
58
45
56 56
44
61
Half Year Analysis of RobberiesJanuary- December
2000-2006
Note: Estimates are based upon similar first half year totals average.
Of the years analyzed, only 2002 had a lower number of robberies in the first half of the year. Based on prior year trends the overall 2006 rate will likely be similar to that of 2000.
331 343 272 357 410311 318
343 372335
499 412391
0100200300400500600700800900
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Second HalfFirst Half
674 715
607
856822
702674
Half Year Analysis of BurglariesJanuary- December
2000-2006
Note: Estimates are based upon similar first half year totals average.
The number of burglaries in the first six months of 2006 is very similar to the numbers in 2002 and 2004, indicating that the total for 2006 will be relatively low and similar to those two years.
606 721557 641 553 445 552
570653
598818
606 575
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Second HalfFirst Half
1374
1176 1155
1459
1159
10201145
Half Year Analysis of Aggravated Assaults January- December
2000-2006
Note: Estimates are based upon similar first half year totals average.
2006 has the lowest first half number of aggravated assaults of the decade. Prior years trend suggest that the 2006 total will be lower than all other years analyzed.
472 459 405 466 477 443 382
435 451 456506
420 455
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Second HalfFirst Half
907 910861
972
897 898
818
Half Year Analysis of Aggravated Assaults with a Gun January- December
2000-2006
Note: Estimates are based upon similar first half year totals average.
The first half of 2006 is the lowest half year of the years analyzed, suggesting that overall aggravated assault with a gun rates have dropped, and the 2006 rate will be similar to the rates of 2000 and 2005.
128 134 133 154 155 123 115
115 137 135150
125120
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Second HalfFirst Half
243271 268
304280
243 238
Half Year Analysis of Larceny January- December
2000-2006
Note: Estimates are based upon similar first half year totals average.
1255 1281 1169 1177 14251026 1206
1250 1261 1238 1494 13501306
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Second HalfFirst Half
2505 25422407
2671 2775
2332 2462
The first half year rate for 2006 indicates that the total number of larceny crimes for the year will be similar to the numbers in first three years of the decade.
Half Year Analysis of Motor Vehicle Theft January- December
2000-2006
Note: Estimates are based upon similar first half year totals average.
Motor vehicle theft rates for the first half of 2006 were closest to that of 2002, and by using prior year trends 2006 is estimated to be a relatively low year for motor vehicle theft, with overall rates similar to 2002.
594 668 568 459654
491 567
661 613 601 718771
535
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Second HalfFirst Half
1255 1281
1169 1177
1425
10261166
Half Year Analysis of ArsonJanuary- December
2000-2006
Note: Estimates are based upon similar first half year totals average.
The number of arsons in the first half of 2006 has been relatively low in comparison to past years, and the overall rate is estimated to be similar to that of 2003.
97132 129
86 10063 76
7972
115
93 122113
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Second HalfFirst Half
176204
244
179
222
176 171
Half Year Analysis of Part I Crime in Camden CityJanuary – June 2006
Source: UCR Crime Data
A Geographic Look at Crime in Camden City
Source: 2000 US Census
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