“it's the demography stupid”
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“It's the Demography Stupid”
Ethnic Change and Immigration Restriction in England
Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck Collegee.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; twitter: @epkaufm;
web: sneps.net;
England:84% of Britain
Britain English ethnic core: 73% of England
White British: 77% of England
Other White British:Scots, Welsh, Irish, Ulster British
Source: Ipsos MORI, 'Attitudes to Immigration' (forthcoming). Issues Index question: “What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?”. Issues Index base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home. Home Office statistics based on ‘Year ending’.
1855
1860
1865
1870
1875
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Catholic % and Female Orange Membership, Scot-land, 1855-2001
% Catholic
Female Orange Members
% C
atho
lic
Response to Catholic Growth• 1923: the Church of Scotland's Church and Nation committee
issues report entitled The Menace of the Irish Race to our Scottish Nationality
• 1932: 'We are losing some of the best of our race stock by migration and their place is being taken by those whom whatever their merits, are not Scottish' - novelist John Buchan at Parliament in November 1932
• 1952: the Church of Scotland's Church and Nation committee condemns Irish Catholics for displacing the 'native Scots population' from industrial Scotland and derided them as a 'compact community largely of alien origin' (Devine 2008)
Pendle
Wigan
Bexley
Solihull
Derby
Tower HamletsAmber Valley
Epping Forest
South Tyneside
Burnley
Gateshead
Sandwell
Hastings
Barnsley
Barnsley
Epping Forest
Leeds
Sandwell
BirminghamWakefield
South TynesideSouth Tyneside
Nuneaton and BedworthBurnley
Rochdale
Burnley
Newcastle upon Tyne
BexleyManchester
Sandwell
Bexley
Walsall
GreenwichStoke-on-Trent
Hounslow
Newcastle upon Tyne
Nuneaton and Bedworth
Manchester
KirkleesRochford
Kirklees
Kirklees
Hillingdon
Bexley
Bexley
Sandwell
Merton
Liverpool
BirminghamWigan
Kirklees
Coventry
WolverhamptonBromley
Halton
Kirklees
Solihull
Cannock Chase
Hillingdon
Wakefield
Sandwell
Broxbourne
Coventry
Hounslow
LeedsKirklees
Birmingham
Nuneaton and Bedworth
Calderdale BarnetBirmingham
Sunderland
KirkleesGreenwich
Stockport
Hertsmere
RochdaleBarnsley
WolverhamptonMertonGreenwich
Harrogate
Pendle Barnsley
Wigan
Barnsley
Coventry
Bexley
Sandwell
South TynesideBasingstoke and Deane
Kirklees
Leeds
Greenwich
Bristol, City ofGateshead
Bexley
KirkleesLiverpoolNewcastle upon Tyne
HarrogateRochford
Amber Valley
South Tyneside
Ealing
GatesheadSunderlandBarnsley
Doncaster
Stoke-on-Trent
Sandwell
Harrogate
Sandwell
BurnleyBirmingham
Sandwell
SunderlandSunderland
Rotherham
RochdaleDerby Kirklees
Ipswich
Redbridge
Gateshead
Sandwell
Greenwich
Gateshead
Sutton
South Tyneside
North Tyneside
Nuneaton and Bedworth
St. Helens
Calderdale
Bolton
Kirklees
Tower HamletsWigan
Bristol, City ofRichmond upon Thames
Solihull
Greenwich
Bexley
Calderdale
Bradford
Islington
Barnsley
Kirklees
Sunderland
Leeds
Sandwell
Solihull
BirminghamPendle
GatesheadNewcastle upon TyneBristol, City of
Barnsley
KirkleesBolton
Solihull
Coventry
Camden
Solihull
Redbridge
BirminghamNewcastle upon Tyne
Wakefield
Gateshead
HertsmereSouth Tyneside
BradfordBarnsley
Epping ForestCroydon
Solihull
Wakefield
Coventry
Croydon
St. Helens
WakefieldWigan
Worcester
RedditchSandwell
Wakefield
Hounslow
Worcester
Basildon
Greenwich
BexleySandwell
SunderlandGateshead
Barnsley
Leeds
Newcastle upon Tyne
BassetlawNewcastle upon Tyne
Amber ValleyBarnsley
St. Helens
Kirklees
South TynesideLiverpool
Leeds
Cannock ChaseWakefield
Burnley
Wolverhampton
Kirklees
Nuneaton and BedworthBarnsley
Hounslow
St. HelensSt. Helens
Bradford
Burnley
Burnley
HaveringHastings
Bolton
Birmingham
Wakefield
Redbridge
Bristol, City ofSouth Tyneside
Brent
CalderdaleLiverpool
Nuneaton and Bedworth
Wakefield
Croydon
Gateshead
Stoke-on-Trent
Manchester
WiganWorcester
Bolton
Sutton
Newcastle upon TyneBirminghamWiganCarlisle
Stockport
Solihull
Sandwell
Bradford
Calderdale
Bradford
Sandwell
Merton
Pendle
Bristol, City of
Stoke-on-Trent
Nuneaton and BedworthBexley
Newcastle upon Tyne
Wigan
Solihull
Greenwich
Newcastle upon Tyne
Southwark
Amber Valley
Birmingham
Ealing
Crawley
LeedsNorth Tyneside
WiganWakefieldBristol, City ofBexleyKirklees
Crawley
Kirklees
Leeds
Epping Forest
Bristol, City of
Solihull
Barnsley
Leeds
Sandwell
South Tyneside
CarlisleNewcastle upon Tyne
Solihull
BexleyBarnsley
Nuneaton and BedworthLeeds
BirminghamSutton
Bexley
LeedsSunderland
Bexley
Worcester
Crawley
Pendle
Warrington
Hastings
Bradford
CoventrySouth Tyneside Bristol, City ofLeeds
Merton
Newcastle upon Tyne
Rochdale CoventrySandwell
BexleyGateshead
Rochford
SandwellSouth TynesideNuneaton and Bedworth
BirminghamBasildon
Calderdale
Broxbourne
Coventry
Leeds
Carlisle
North TynesideBristol, City of
Pendle
South Tyneside
Sandwell
Derby
South Tyneside
CrawleyHounslow
Stockport
Hillingdon
Richmond upon Thames
GatesheadGatesheadWigan
Hastings
Gateshead
St. Helens
LeedsBarrow-in-Furness
Greenwich
South TynesideSt. Helens
Manchester
Nuneaton and BedworthBarnsleyPendle Broxbourne
North TynesideWigan
Leeds
Sandwell
Newcastle upon Tyne
Enfield
Coventry
Newcastle upon Tyne
Stockport
Wandsworth
Derby
Tower Hamlets
St. Helens
Newcastle upon Tyne
Burnley
Oldham
Pendle
Swindon
Greenwich
Newcastle upon TyneWigan
Newcastle upon Tyne
CamdenBristol, City of
Nuneaton and Bedworth
Greenwich
Rochford
Wigan
Newcastle upon Tyne
Barnsley
South TynesideBirmingham
RedbridgeBurnley
Newcastle upon Tyne
Newcastle upon Tyne
Amber Valley
GatesheadCoventry
South Tyneside Sandwell
Camden
Birmingham
Sandwell
Stockport
North Hertfordshire
Newcastle upon TyneSouth Tyneside
Bexley
Hyndburn
Wigan
MertonHounslow
Leeds
Kingston upon Hull, City ofKirklees
Bexley
WorcesterNuneaton and Bedworth
Kirklees
Salford
Newcastle upon Tyne
Sunderland
Tower HamletsDerby
Wigan
Gateshead
Barking and Dagenham
Croydon
Doncaster
Sandwell
Solihull
Crawley
SolihullStockportKnowsley
Birmingham
Solihull
ExeterBirmingham
Birmingham
Solihull
BirminghamBirmingham
Birmingham
Southend-on-Sea
Southend-on-Sea
Bradford
Birmingham
Bradford
Wigan
SalfordBirmingham
Wirral Colchester
Wirral
Wigan
Southend-on-Sea
Wigan
StockportLiverpool
Southend-on-SeaBury
LeedsManchesterLiverpool
Barking and Dagenham
Southend-on-SeaCroydon
Leeds
Southend-on-SeaSouthend-on-Sea
Birmingham
Tameside
Leeds
Birmingham
Birmingham
TamesideSalfordSolihull
TamesideBirmingham
Liverpool
Lincoln
Lincoln CroydonSouthend-on-Sea
Tameside
LeedsWirral
Salford
Redbridge
Southend-on-Sea
Barnsley
Bristol, City of
LeedsSefton
BirminghamNorth Hertfordshire
Liverpool
Coventry
Swindon
Southend-on-SeaLeedsTameside Croydon
Salford
Wirral
Doncaster
Leeds
Birmingham
Birmingham
Tameside
Salford Salford
Stoke-on-Trent
Carlisle
Enfield
Enfield
Barking and Dagenham
Coventry
SalfordSheffield
Barking and Dagenham
Wirral
Enfield
Rotherham
Sefton
Sheffield
Leeds
Greenwich
Newcastle upon Tyne
Manchester
Sefton
Tameside
Southend-on-Sea
ManchesterSwindonBromley
Sefton
RotherhamDoncaster
WiganLincolnStockport
Basildon
Carlisle
DoncasterManchester
Bexley
Carlisle
Rotherham
Kirklees
SunderlandCarlisle
Salford
Sefton
Tameside
DudleyLeeds
Tameside
Swindon
Thurrock
SheffieldSwindonSheffield
Barnsley
Wolverhampton
Milton Keynes
SeftonCoventry
Bexley
Basildon
Bristol, City ofLeedsTameside
Bexley
Stockport
StevenageKingston upon Hull, City ofCoventry
Bexley SheffieldLeeds
Bromley
Birmingham
Leeds
Havering
Burnley
Sutton
Southend-on-Sea
Wakefield
Leeds
Sheffield
Carlisle
TamesideWakefield
Tameside
Leeds
KirkleesSheffield
Thurrock
Walsall
Wakefield
RotherhamThurrock
Bury
Tameside
Lincoln
Tameside
Bury
Sheffield
Rotherham
North Hertfordshire
Sheffield
Dudley
Basildon
Basildon
Leeds
Thurrock
BasildonSouthend-on-Sea
Thurrock
Sheffield
Bury
Bury
Sheffield
Worcester
Reigate and BansteadCarlisleSouthend-on-Sea
North East Lincolnshire
Sheffield
Bradford
Basildon
Southend-on-Sea
Basildon
Sunderland
Sefton
BuryAmber Valley
Sefton
Tameside
Thurrock
Basildon
Havering
Havering
Rotherham
Thurrock
Bury
Wakefield
Sheffield
BuryReigate and Banstead
Wakefield
Dudley
Bury
Barnsley
BroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourneBroxbourne
SunderlandRotherham
Hartlepool
Barnsley
Southend-on-Sea
CrawleyRotherham
Sefton
ThurrockThurrock
BuryBasildon
Basildon
Barnsley
Basildon
Plymouth
WakefieldHartlepool
Thurrock
Thurrock
Wakefield
Hartlepool
Wakefield
Basildon
Southend-on-Sea
Thurrock
Thurrock
Thurrock
Rotherham
Hartlepool
WakefieldRotherham
Sunderland
010
2030
0 1000 2000 3000 4000% White British 2001 x Change in Minority Share '01-11
wards Fitted values
BNP Vote and Ethnic Shift in Local Elections, 2010-12%
BN
P V
ote
(Whi
te B
ritis
h O
nly)
Source: Plymouth Elections Centre
Bradford
Westminster
Birmingham
ExeterHaringey
SheffieldExeter
Westminster
Camden
WokingLambethEaling
Birmingham
Camden
SheffieldCambridgeSouth Cambridgeshire
Merton Cambridge
Harrow
South CambridgeshireSouth CambridgeshireWokingSwindon
Islington
Kensington and Chelsea
Wirral Reading Newcastle-under-LymeMilton Keynes
Ealing
Merton
Westminster
Hammersmith and Fulham
WirralEastleigh
CroydonCroydon
Richmond upon ThamesMole Valley
Croydon
Merton
BirminghamTraffordSheffield
Harrow
Southend-on-SeaOxford
Westminster
Wirral
Southend-on-SeaEastleigh
Wirral
BradfordGosport
South CambridgeshireBirminghamBradford
WiganSeftonWirral
BirminghamExeterBradford
WirralWirralWirral
ExeterWiganSouthend-on-SeaWiganWokingham
SheffieldSwindon
Exeter
Milton Keynes
Waltham Forest
South CambridgeshireWokingham Doncaster
Waltham Forest
Chorley
Harrow
Kensington and Chelsea
SouthamptonWokingSouthend-on-Sea
Leeds
West LindseyWirralManchester
Croydon
ExeterMilton KeynesGloucesterDoncasterReigate and BansteadMaidstone
Milton Keynes
Wokingham
Barking and Dagenham
Eastleigh
Southend-on-SeaMilton Keynes
Croydon
LeedsStockport
Southend-on-Sea
SheffieldBirminghamTameside
Croydon
Norwich
SuttonBradford
Reigate and Banstead
Croydon
Milton KeynesEastleighGosport Milton KeynesBasingstoke and Deane
EastleighTamesideTrafford
Milton KeynesReigate and BansteadTameside
BirminghamMole Valley Woking
WirralBradfordEastleigh
Huntingdonshire
Wirral
Sheffield
Merton
Wirral
SouthamptonLincolnHavant
Lincoln Eastleigh
LincolnRedbridge
WokingWokingham
PlymouthBasingstoke and Deane Milton KeynesSouth CambridgeshireCroydon
HaveringTameside
Newham
SeftonLeeds
Lincoln
WirralNorwichWirral
RedbridgeBromley
Swindon
Southend-on-SeaGosportLincolnSefton
Wokingham
WirralEastleighSefton Epping ForestNorwich
Woking
Reigate and Banstead
WirralMole ValleyWoking
Enfield
Merton
WirralPurbeck
CoventrySwindonStevenage
Milton KeynesNorwich
SouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaNorwich
CroydonBromley
BradfordSefton Tameside
Croydon
Huntingdonshire
Walsall Hounslow
MaidstoneSheffield
WirralBirmingham
Redbridge
Crawley
Enfield
North East Lincolnshire
Tameside
Sefton
Enfield
Mole ValleyGloucester
Milton KeynesEastleigh
BromleyHavant
BromleyHaveringSouth Cambridgeshire
Manchester
Tandridge
Tameside
Stoke-on-TrentNewcastle-under-Lyme
Barking and Dagenham
Enfield
Enfield
StevenageTandridgeReading
Barking and Dagenham
Maidstone
Barking and Dagenham
Eastleigh
Enfield
WalsallRotherhamNorth East LincolnshireSefton
Stoke-on-TrentStoke-on-TrentManchester
Sheffield
LeedsWokingham
Greenwich
Redbridge
FarehamWirral
Woking
Newcastle upon TyneStoke-on-Trent
Sefton Mole ValleySeftonWoking Manchester
Milton Keynes
Sefton
WolverhamptonSwindonNorth East LincolnshireBromley
SeftonRotherhamDoncaster
Gloucester
BrentwoodWigan
EastleighDudley
LincolnExeter
Maidstone
TamesideLincolnLincoln
Eastleigh
WokingStoke-on-TrentMilton Keynes
Stockport
Kingston upon Hull, City ofSwale
West Lindsey
Doncaster
DoncasterStoke-on-Trent
Manchester
GosportBromleyExeter
BexleySutton
Eastleigh
Milton KeynesWokingham
BromleyNewcastle-under-Lyme
RotherhamMole Valley
GloucesterStoke-on-TrentNewcastle-under-Lyme
Mole Valley
DudleySefton
Stevenage
Havant
Eastleigh
Newcastle-under-LymeTamesideDudley
Leeds South Cambridgeshire
Tameside
Sefton TandridgeHuntingdonshireStevenage
Barking and Dagenham
SheffieldAdur
West LindseyNewcastle-under-Lyme
Sheffield
Milton KeynesNewcastle-under-LymeWest Lindsey
Tameside
Walsall
Manchester
EastleighFarehamAdur
Walsall
Tunbridge Wells
WokingKingston upon Hull, City of
WolverhamptonGloucester
North Hertfordshire
Epping Forest
Milton KeynesSefton
BexleyStoke-on-Trent
Basildon
Walsall
SwindonSwindonSwindonSwindon
Leeds
TamesideDudley
BexleyRotherham
Exeter
HuntingdonshireTunbridge Wells
Stevenage
Plymouth
Reigate and Banstead
Stevenage
North East Lincolnshire
WokinghamReigate and BansteadCoventry
HaveringBexley
Woking
Tandridge
Hillingdon
Newcastle-under-LymeWalsall Bromley
Birmingham
Bromley
Leeds
Barking and Dagenham
Gosport
Sheffield
North HertfordshireWolverhamptonWorthingMole Valley
Barking and Dagenham
Tandridge
Sefton BromleyHaveringBrentwood
Chorley
Sutton
Walsall
Sutton Sutton
Gosport
Tandridge
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Dudley
Havering
PlymouthReigate and BansteadSeftonExeterPurbeck Worthing
Reigate and Banstead
SheffieldTameside
Tunbridge Wells
Wolverhampton
RunnymedeStoke-on-Trent
Worthing
ThurrockWalsall
AdurWalsall
Wakefield
PlymouthWokingham
Rotherham
ThurrockReigate and BansteadWokingham
Dudley
Lincoln
Stoke-on-Trent
Tandridge
Havering
Lincoln
Runnymede
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Fareham
Adur
Tandridge
HaveringRotherham
Sheffield
Tunbridge WellsStevenage
Worthing
North East Lincolnshire
Kingston upon Hull, City of
Dudley
Basildon
Dudley
PlymouthBasildonPlymouthWalsallAdur
Havering
Dudley
North East LincolnshireReigate and Banstead
Adur
BasildonSouthend-on-Sea
Stevenage
Thurrock
PlymouthNorth East LincolnshireCarlisle
North East LincolnshireDoncasterWiganHuntingdonshire
North East Lincolnshire
Worthing
Havering
North East LincolnshireWaveney
Dudley
Bradford
Mole Valley
Waveney
BasildonSouthend-on-Sea
Walsall
Newcastle-under-Lyme Kingston upon Hull, City of
Basildon
Mole ValleyHavant
Worthing
Mole ValleyWaveneyDudley
Bradford
North East Lincolnshire
HavantPlymouth
Brentwood
HaveringDudley
PlymouthWorthing
WorthingAdur
Tandridge
SeftonTameside
Thurrock
Stevenage
Stoke-on-Trent
Reigate and BansteadNorth East Lincolnshire
Tandridge
Basildon
Havering
WalsallHavering
RotherhamSeftonRotherham
HuntingdonshireSwale
Plymouth
Adur
Adur
Wokingham
Reigate and BansteadWaveney Swale
SheffieldBrentwoodDudleyAdur
Rotherham
Havant
PlymouthAdurBrentwood
Runnymede
Rotherham
Dudley
TandridgePlymouth
Sefton
Plymouth
RotherhamHartlepool Southend-on-Sea
Swale
Dudley
Tunbridge Wells
Runnymede
Huntingdonshire
Plymouth
RunnymedeNewcastle-under-Lyme
Huntingdonshire
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Worthing
Milton Keynes
PlymouthWorthing RunnymedeRotherham
PlymouthPlymouth
ThurrockThurrock
RotherhamNewcastle-under-Lyme
Dudley
North East LincolnshireHuntingdonshire
SheffieldDudley
Plymouth
Reigate and Banstead
Hartlepool
West Lindsey
Reigate and Banstead
Thurrock
Hartlepool
RotherhamSwale
Runnymede
Plymouth
Hartlepool
Rotherham
Waveney
Hartlepool
North East Lincolnshire
Newcastle-under-LymeAdur
North East LincolnshireSouthend-on-Sea
West Lindsey
Thurrock
ThurrockRotherham
Tandridge
Adur
Dudley
Adur
RotherhamNewcastle-under-Lyme
Rotherham
Hartlepool
Newcastle-under-Lyme
RotherhamNewcastle-under-Lyme
Newcastle-under-Lyme
010
2030
0 1000 2000 3000 4000% White British in 2001 x Change in minority share '01-11
Wards Fitted values
UKIP Vote and Ethnic Shift in Local Elections 2010-12%
UK
IP v
ote
Source: Plymouth Elections Centre
English Ethnic Nationalism
Individualism Cultural Liberalism
Integration/ Assimilation/Boundary Shift
Immigration and Minority Growth
-
- -
+
Desire to reduce migration, by class and proportion of minorities in ward,
white British only
50556065707580859095
UpperWorking classAll
Least Renters
2 3 4 Most Renters
50556065707580859095
UpperWorkingBase
Desire to reduce migration, by class and proportion of renters, among
ward residents, white British only
Source: Home Office Citizenship Survey (Office for National Statistics and Home Office 2010, 2011)
Minority Growth Matters more than East European Immigration for Opinion
• Minority changes at low-scale and levels at large-scale heighten white opposition
• Minority levels at low-scale reduce opposition• White Other/E European share not associated with
opposition to immigration• Minorities: whether UK-born, English-speaking, social
housing, employed, matters little. Mixed, Muslim, Caribbean – sporadic effects
• Contact and Habituation of native white population to the local presence of minorities, even if segregated/foreign-born/Muslim, seems key
Immigration and Immigration Opinion in the US & Canada since 1965
Source: Wilkes, Guppy & Farris 2007
Conclusion
• Minority change associated with more English ethnic nationalism
• Minority levels can mean less opposition: but requires residential integration
• Local contact with and habituation to minorities, rather than deep integration, reduces opposition to immigration
• Assimilation has historically reduced ethnic nationalism
“It's the Demography Stupid”
Ethnic Change and Immigration Restriction in England
Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck Collegee.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; twitter: @epkaufm;
web: sneps.net
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