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National AccountsInternational Accounts

Quarter 1 2020 Provisional

Media Briefing5 June 2020

National Accounts

Quarter 1 2020 – Provisional

Quarter 1 2020 provisional – Constant Prices, Seasonally Adjusted

Seasonally Adjusted

Quarterly Changes

GDP +1.2%

GNP +0.1%

GDP

GNP

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

€billion

GDP GNP

Q1 2020 GDP % Change by Country Seasonally Adjusted

%

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

Spain Euro area (19from 2015)

Estonia EU (27 from2020)

Austria Denmark UnitedKingdom

Netherlands Finland Sweden Romania Ireland

Sector Growth by Share of GDP and Growth Rate – Q1 2020 Seasonally Adjusted

Industry (excl. Construction)

+15.4%

Construction-1.6%

Distribution, transport, hotels and restaurants

- 12.7%Information andcommunication + 1.5%

Financial and insurance activities -0.4%

Real estate activities+0.1%

Professional, adminand support services

-5.3%

Public admin, educationand health

+0.2%

Arts, entertainment and other services- 0.1%

Agriculture, forestry and fishing -4.7%

Trends in Sector Growth Q1 2017 =100

60

80

100

120

140

160

2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1

Industry (excl.Construction)Construction

Distribution, transport,hotels and restaurantsInformation andcommunicationProfessional, admin andsupport servicesPublic admin, educationand healthTaxes - Subsidies

Expenditure by Share of GDP and Growth Rate – Q1 2020 Seasonally Adjusted

PCE-4.7%

Govt.

+0.5%+ +Invest-ment0.0%

Exports

+0.2%Imports

-1.5%+ - = GDP+1.2%

+ + + = GDP-

Q–on–Q % Changes:

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales March 2020 vs March 2019

-60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0%

Food, Bev & Tobacco

Pharma

All retail businesses

Fuel

Furniture

Dept Stores

Motor Trades

Clothes

Bars

March 2020 SA Vol Growth March 2019 SA Vol Growth

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

All retail businesses

Retail sale of food

Retail sale of household equipment

Retail sale of electrical goods

Retail sale of textiles, clothing and footwear

Retail sale of books, newspapers, stationery and other goods (4753,4761 to 4765,4776 to4778)

Other retail sales

Retail Sales : Percentage of total sales on-line

2020M04 2020M03 2020M02

Trends in Net Exports, Final Domestic Demand and Modified Final Domestic Demand 2017 Q1 = 100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1

€billion

ind

ex

Exports (right axis) Imports (right axis) Net Exp FDD Modified FDD

Contribution of Domestic Demand and Net Exports to Quarterly GDP

Contribution of Modified Domestic Demand and Modified Net Exports to Quarterly GDP

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1

%

Total DomesticDemand

Net Exports

-5

0

5

10

2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1

Modified TotalDomesticDemand

Net Exports,adjustedfor IP imports

Personal Consumption ExpenditureQ1 2020/Q4 2019

Total -4.7% (seasonally adjusted)

Goods - 5.2%

Services - 0.8%

Capital Formation Q1 2020/Q4 2019

Total -0.0% (seasonally adjusted)

Building and construction -1.0%

Machinery and equipment *

Intangibles *

Machinery and equipment excl. aircraft leasing *

Intangibles excl. R&D service

imports and trade in IP *

Composition of Capital Formation Q1 2020 (Seasonally Adjusted)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1

€billion

B&C M&E Intangibles

GDP, GNP and Net Factor Flows Q1 2017 – Q1 2020

-40,000

-20,000

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1

GDP NFF GNP

€million

Quarterly Summary

GDP +1.2% GNP +0.1%

Expenditure: Output:• PCE -4.7%• Government Expenditure +0.5%• Investment 0.0%• Net Exports up €1,877m

• Final Domestic Demand -1.3%• Modified Final Domestic Demand -1.6%

• Industry (excl. Construction) +15.4%• Construction -1.6%• Information & Communication +1.5%• Professional, Admin & Support -5.3%• Public Administration +0.2%• Financial & Insurance Activities -0.4%• Distribution, transport, hotels and

restaurants -12.7%• Net Factor Outflows €19,289m

(€20,565m in Q4 2019)

Year-on-Year Growth Rates

Q1 2020 Q1 2019

GDP +4.6% +7.6%

GNP +5.5% +6.2%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

€billion

GDP GNP

GDP

GNP

Personal Consumption ExpenditureQ1 2020/Q1 2019

Broad-based declines across goods and services with notable decreases in expenditure abroad and private cars. Some expenditure was up including communications expenditure.

Total - 2.5%

Goods - 4.3%Services - 1.2%

Capital Formation Q1 2020/Q1 2019

Total +197.2%Building and Construction +8.3%

New dwellings +17.3%

All other B&C +5.9%

Remainder of Cap Formation +286.5%

Machinery and Equipment *

Intangibles *

Excluding R&D service

imports and trade in IP *

International Accounts

Quarter 1 2020

Current Account Balance, % of GDP

BOP Q1 2020 - Current Account

Q1 2019 Q1 2020

Current Account Balance €10,990m -€15,208m

• Merchandise surplus €32,151m €34,409m

• Services deficit -€1,224m -€29,290m

• Net Income outflow -€19,938m -€20,327m

Balance Over Time

BOP Q1 2020 - Current AccountQ1 2020 y-o-y Change

Merchandise exports €59,452m +€2,307m

imports €25,043m +€49m

Services exports €51,519m +€5,035m

imports €80,808m +€33,100m

Primary Income inflows €26,005m +€3,156m

outflows €45,232m +€3,701m

Direct investment profit and interest inflows €5,674m +€992m

Direct investment profit and interest outflows €22,594m +€873m

Goods Exports and Imports

Exports Imports

International Trade to BOP Merchandise

Service Exports

Computer Services

Business Services

Financial Services

Transport

Royalties/Licences

Insurance

Tourism & Travel

Other Services n.e.s

Repairs and Processing

Communications

Royalties/Licences

Business Services

Financial Services

Tourism & Travel

Insurance

Repairs and Processing

Computer Services

Transport

Other Services n.e.s

Communications

Service Imports

Royalties Imports in the Pharma and ICT sector

Direct Investment Income

Direct Investment Income Outflows

FDI Income: Quarterly Profits Outflows

Trade, Income and CA with UK

Financing Q1 2020

International Investment Position Q1 2020

International Accounts Summary

• Current Account balance in Q1 2020 of -€15.2bn due to continued large imports of intellectual property.

• Reduced royalty imports in the pharmaceutical sector.

• Current Account balance with the UK back in deficit of €1,166m, but with continued high computer services exports.

• International Accounts largely unaffected in Q1 2020 by COVID19.

Main Results - Quarter 1 2020

Key Indicators (constant prices)

Q1/2020 vs Q4/2019

GDP 1.2%

GNP 0.1%

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) -4.7%

Modified Domestic Demand -1.6%