mega trends in tech - present and future and how they'll impact your top line

Megatrends  in  TechGreg  M.  Collier,  Business  Development  

FamilySearch

©  2015  by  Intellectual  Reserve,  Inc.  All  rights  reserved

I’d  like  to  kick  off  my  remarks  with  a  bit  of  a  personal  story

Some  Terms  We’ll  Be  Chatting  about

■ IoT  

■ “Crowd  Sourcing”  

■ Big  Data  &  Machine  Learning  

■ “Transparent  Computing”  

■ Social  networks  

■ Oh  yeah…    a  little  thing  called  mobile

Internet  of  Things

Pretty  much  -­‐  if  it’s  a  “thing”  -­‐  someone  will  figure  out  how  to  connected  it  if  

“it”  hasn’t  been  already.

Crowd  sourcing

• Many  eyes  and  contributions  makes  data  more  accurate.      

• It  eliminates  single  point  of  error.  • Lowers  the  cost  of  acquiring  data  • The  value  is  in  the  experience  and  how  it  leverages  the  freely  given  data  

Think  Waze

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Waze  -­‐  Crowd  sourcing  app.    AWESOME  experience  

Big  data

Big  data  is  an  evolving  term  that  describes  any  voluminous  amount  of  structured,  semi-­‐structured  and  unstructured  data  that  has  the  potenYal  to  be  mined  for  informaYon.  

In  this  context,  the  IoT  will  create  20x’s  more  data  than  human  sources  by  2020

Machine  LearningMachines  and  services  that  make  sense  out  of  big  data  

See:    h[ps://gigaom.com/2015/02/04/what-­‐happens-­‐when-­‐too-­‐few-­‐databases-­‐becomes-­‐too-­‐many-­‐databases/

IoT  +  Crowd  Sourcing  +  Big  Data  +  Machine  Learning  [should]=  

Transparent  Computing  The  ‘future’  backbone  of  connectivity

Automation  that  makes  my  life  simpler,  more  comfortable,  efficient,  without  the  need  for  me  to  

interact  with  any  “thing”.

Mobile

!Soc

ial!

Some  charts  from  Henry  Blodgett,  Business  Intelligence

Ubiquitous  connectivity  for  the  entire  human  race  is  quickly  becoming  a  possibility.

■ Within  the  next  10  years,  anyone  -­‐  anywhere  will  have  access  to  some  form  of  connectivity.  

■ Consequently,  for  the  first  time  in  history,  all  of  mankind  will  have  access  to  one  another  anywhere,  any  time.  

■ That’s  an  incredible  thought  if  you  ponder  it  for  just  a  minute.

So  this  begs  the  question(s)….

■ Why  should  I  care?  

■ What  does  the  social  mobile  trend  have  to  do  with  transparent  computing?  

■ What  on  earth  does  this  have  to  do  with  the  family  history  vertical?  

To  illustrate:    let’s  shift  gears  for  just  a  second…

This  is  my  Mum.

■ Born  in  Cape  Town,  South  Africa  

■ Immigrated  to  the  US  in  1958  leaving  everything  behind  to  never  [permanently]  return.  

■ Graduated  with  honors  in  1963  from  Brigham  Young  University  with  a  BA  in  Music.    (She  never  graduated  from  high  school).    She  went  on  to  graduate  with  her  MA  in  Music  at  age  50.  

■ She’s  shared  very  little  about  her  childhood.

My  mum.    I  really  don’t  *get*  where  she’s  coming  from    :)

But  I  really  wish  I  could…..So  how  about  a  couple  of  cool  scenarios  to  consider.

14

What  if  “Family  History  Jarvis”  came  approached  me  on  my  car  speakers  on  my  ride  home….

15

This  transformation  has  two  parts:  

■ Transparent  computing  is  the  back  end.  

■ The  machine  learning  component  previously  discussed  will  eventually  make  itself  into  the  user  experience.    Perhaps  even  sooner  than  later  (think  virtual  reality  +  ML)  

■ Mobile/Social  will  define  the  user  experience  

So  what’s  changing?  

■ Mobile  platforms  are  more  prolific  than  ever.    That  trend  won’t  end  for  a  very  long  time  

■ Social  on  mobile  devices  has  become  the  new  platform  of  The  Internet  

■ Newer  generations  will  experience  connectivity  in  ways  that  we’ve  (up  to  now)  thought  was  “out  there”  

■ The  pace  of  innovation  is  growing  at  an  unprecedented  rate.  

■ The  more  connected  our  world  becomes,  the  more  data  becomes  available.    That  means  cheaper  access  to  customers,  data,  and  geos.    

Why  should  I  care?■ The  impact  of  mobility  is  happening  now.      

■ Social  networks  are  the  ‘new’  platform  of  The  Internet  

■ The  growth  rate  is  staggering.  

■ The  longer  you  wait  to  get  on  board,  the  higher  your  costs  for  on  boarding  will  be.  

■ Because  there  is  a  significant  risk  that  your    business  model  will  become  stagnant  if  you’re  counting  on  subscription  revenue  and  desktop  platforms  (if  it  hasn’t  already).  

■ Others  will  figure  this  out  if  you  don’t.

+ I  love  this  Super  Bowl  ad.    It  does  a  great  job  in  showing  just  how  quickly  things  change….

+So  who  will  win  the  race?

Mobile

!Soc

ial!

+A  few  final  words

■ Hire  people  who  *get*  big  data.  

■ Hire  people  who  know  how  to  reveal  context  sensitive  data  SIMPLY  on  a  mobile  device.  

■ Morph  your  business  model  around  your  new  direction  and  commit  to  it  long  term.    Acquire  what  you  can’t  develop  fast  enough  to  give  you  the  competitive  advantage.  

■ Know  your  customers  whoever  and  wherever  they  are.  

■ K.I.S.S.    Single  purpose  apps  are  the  current  rage.    

■ Last,  but  most  importantly,  embrace  that  this  deck  will  be  irrelevant  by  the  time  you  leave  this  room    :)

Thank  youGreg  M.  Collier  

Business  Development  

colliergm@familysearch.org  

+1.801.319.0637  

Find  me  on:  

Facebook  or  LinkedIn

Appendix

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So  why  does  FamilySearch  have  a  business  development  group?

■ We  want  to  see  the  ecosystem  grow  to  adjacent  markets  

■ We’d  love  to  see  the  market  grow  and  spur  new  innovation  and  fresh  ideas  that  will  attract  all  kinds  of  audiences  and  investors  in  all  kinds  of  markets.  

■ Because  it  helps  us  understand  better  what  pressures  new  innovators  and  legacy  companies  alike  are  facing  in:  

■ Maintaining  the  status  quo  

■ What’s  working  and  what’s  not  

■ Where  ‘poking’  at  different  concepts  is  less  risky  than  it  is  for  our  partners.

Some  of  the  Common  Elements  Business  Elements  on  Mobile

■ Static  ad  supported.  

■ Context  sensitive  audio/video  ads  

■ Think  FHJ  making  travel  reservations  and  the  $$  opportunities  there.    The  possibilities  are  endless  

■ Mobile  only  

■ Based  on  social  platforms  

■ Carefully  target  your  *growth*  demographic  and  use  the  right  platform  to  approach  them  where  they  are.  

■ Consider  phasing  out  subscription  models.    They  can  be  kryptonite.

+Now  for  something  to  ponder  on:

+Mobile  data  growth  is  off  the  charts

Citations,  Attributions  &  Sources■ http://www.fastcolabs.com/3009429/open-­‐company/in-­‐depth-­‐how-­‐to-­‐pick-­‐the-­‐right-­‐revenue-­‐model-­‐for-­‐your-­‐app  

■ https://intelligence.businessinsider.com/the-­‐future-­‐of-­‐digital-­‐2014-­‐edition-­‐2014-­‐12#  

■ http://yourstory.com/2014/03/ultimate-­‐master-­‐list-­‐revenue-­‐models-­‐web-­‐mobile-­‐companies/  

■ https://www.facebook.com/business/overview  

■ http://gizmodo.com/a-­‐map-­‐of-­‐every-­‐device-­‐in-­‐the-­‐world-­‐thats-­‐connected-­‐to-­‐t-­‐1628171291  

■ http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2014/03/07/millennials-­‐in-­‐adulthood/  

■ http://venturebeat.com/2015/02/04/google-­‐quietly-­‐unveils-­‐android-­‐5-­‐1-­‐lollipop-­‐shipping-­‐first-­‐on-­‐android-­‐one-­‐devices-­‐in-­‐indonesia/  

■ https://gigaom.com/2015/02/03/the-­‐whole-­‐world-­‐is-­‐sucking-­‐down-­‐mobile-­‐data-­‐like-­‐its-­‐water/