offshore wind power

Offshore Wind PowerOffshore Wind Power

Willett KemptonCenter for Carbon-free Power IntegrationCollege of Earth, Ocean, and Environment

University of Delaware

UD Energy Workshop

26 April 2010

Willett KemptonCenter for Carbon-free Power IntegrationCollege of Earth, Ocean, and Environment

University of Delaware

UD Energy Workshop

26 April 2010

Offshore Class Machines

• RePower 5M (shown), installed in 45 m of water

• Vestas V90-3.0 (2 years in production)

• Siemens 3.6 MW (but 50 Hz)

• Clipper 10 MW (produce in UK, 2009)

• GE 3.6s (3+ years in water, not in production)

Tower enables depth range, thus resource

Land-based, monopile, jacket, spar buoy

Art: NY Times Magazine

US Developments Proposed

The conventional Wisdom on Energy

• US wind Mainly in the Plains

• All renewables are small

• Renewable energy is expensive

• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time

• Wind is intermittent

MISO Joint Coordinated System Plan

Wind power beyond the coast?

• No airport meteorological towers

• Many wind maps stop at the coast

• How to measure?

• (Met buoys and satellite-QuikSCAT)

QuikSCAT

Pimenta, Kempton and Garvine (2008)

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Met. buoy

Estimating turbine production

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Power curve of REpower 5M

QuikSCATturbine output

1999-2008

RE 5M

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kWa

The conventional Wisdom on Energy

• US wind Mainly in the Plains

• All renewables are small

• Renewable energy is expensive

• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time

• Wind is intermittent

The conventional Wisdom on Energy

• US wind Mainly in the Plains

• All renewables are small

• Renewable energy is expensive

• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time

• Wind is intermittent

Power Units• 1 Watt = an iPod playing

• 100 Watt = light bulb

• ~1 kWa (1,000 Watt) = a house (a=average)

• ~5 MW (5,000 kW) = wind turbine capacity

• ~2 MWa = wind turbine, average output

• ~1 GWa (1,000 MW) = Delaware

• 73 GWa = the mid-Atlantic (MA to NC)

• 450 GWa = the United States

Large resource on Mid-Atlantic

• Examine resource of entire Mid-Atlantic

• Vs. load

GWavg

Electricity 73

Cars 29

Heating 83

total 185

Needs vs. Resource

GWavg

Electricity 73

Cars 29

Heating 83

total 185

m Excl GWa

0-20 0.46 60

20-50 0.40 117

50-100 0.10 153

Total 330

All of electricity, cars and heating uses 2/3 of the wind resource, dropping regional CO2 by 68%.

Drill, Baby, drill?

• How much oil in the entire Atlantic OCS?

• Compare delivered energy from Atlantic

• Offshore wind 330,000 MWa

• OCS oil 18,000 MWa (during 20 years)

• Wind > 18 times oil !from: Kempton et al Geophysical Research Letters 2007

Reduce oil imports?

• One electric car draws 400 Wa (.4 kWa)

• Mid-Atlantic cars draw 29,000 MWa

• Atlantic OCS oil could run 20% of Mid-Atlantic cars ... for 20 years

• Offshore wind would run 100% of Mid-Atlantic cars....

Reduce oil imports?

• One electric car draws 400 Wa (.4 kWa)

• Mid-Atlantic cars draw 29,000 MWa

• Atlantic OCS oil could run 20% of Mid-Atlantic cars ... for 20 years

• Offshore wind would run 100% of Mid-Atlantic cars....

Reduce oil imports?

• One electric car draws 400 Wa (.4 kWa)

• Mid-Atlantic cars draw 29,000 MWa

• Atlantic OCS oil could run 20% of Mid-Atlantic cars ... for 20 years

• Offshore wind would run 100% of Mid-Atlantic cars.... forever

The conventional Wisdom on Energy

• US wind Mainly in the Plains

• All renewables are small

• Renewable energy is expensive

• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time

• Wind is intermittent

The conventional Wisdom on Energy

• US wind Mainly in the Plains

• All renewables are small

• Renewable energy is expensive

• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time

• Wind is intermittent

Context-free price comparisons are nonsense

• Electricity prices are REGIONAL

• Wind price depends on local conditions--wind speed, topography, etc

• Must compare wind price at site to the local market price

• ... Makes no sense to price “wind” versus fossil -- nor on-land wind versus offshore

High Electric Rates on Coast

Note: Map information is based on PJM data for a single day at peak demand

Source: Conectiv Energy

● Congestion raises prices all along Mid-Atlantic coast (map shows PJM East).

● Limited generation

and transmission causes congestion.

● Generation offshore would address both problems.

2

What about Price for the Delaware case?

• In Delaware, the local utility is buying dirty power at 11 ¢/kWh

• A 450 MW size, offshore wind contract came in at 9.9¢/kWh

• (It doesn’t matter what electricity costs elsewhere)

• And, significant costs are going on other parties' ledgers ...

But don’t get me started on Price!

• Delaware: 25-years of payments for electricity (450 MW, @ 2.5% discount rate)

• Investment ~ $1B to $1.6B

• Total payments sum $3.6 billion

• Two years arguing whether <5% over or under “market” (± $180 million)

• Health benefit of project was $1 B NPV

• But PSC couldn’t consider this, required to evaluate electric price only

The conventional Wisdom on Energy

• US wind Mainly in the Plains

• All renewables are small

• Renewable energy is expensive

• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time

• Wind is intermittent

The conventional Wisdom on Energy

• US wind Mainly in the Plains

• All renewables are small

• Renewable energy is expensive

• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time

• Wind is intermittent

The conventional Wisdom on Energy

• US wind Mainly in the Plains

• All renewables are small

• Renewable energy is expensive

• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time

• Wind is intermittent

You can't make that many wind turbines!

• 108 GWa supplies all electric plus all cars

• Assume that each wind turbine is 5 MW nameplate at 40% CF, so 2 MWa average output

• Requires 54,000 wind turbines for mid-Atlantic

• Can we do this in 50 years?

• Have we ever done this before?

B-24E (Liberator), 1942

WW II Aircraft Production(1,000s)

1939

1940

1941

1942

1943

1944

1945

Total

US 2 6 19 48 86 96 46 331

World 33 47 72 121 188 231 95 770

And that’s not to mention all the tanks, ships & guns!

54,000 for East Coast by year 4

How would we actually build those turbines?

• A WWII production effort would do it in four years.

• But what if we don’t have a WWII (politically)?

• How many factories are needed?

• How fast to build without WWII urgency?

Rosie the Riveter Poster by J. Howard Miller

How many factories?

• One factory, five days/week, three shifts-- roughly 350 turbines/year.

• Assume similar rate for towers, blades

• How long to make 54,000 turbines?• One factory takes 154 years, e.g.,

way too late for climate change• To build 54,000 in 30 years takes 5

factories; in 15 years, 10 factories• So, need 5-10 manufacturing

complexes, depending on desired speed of CO2 cuts

The conventional Wisdom on Energy

• US wind Mainly in the Plains

• All renewables are small

• Renewable energy is expensive

• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time

• Wind is intermittent

The conventional Wisdom on Energy

• US wind Mainly in the Plains

• All renewables are small

• Renewable energy is expensive

• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time

• Wind is intermittent

Transmission N-S on Shelf

• Weather data from each station S1 - S11

• Transmission "pools" power

• How much smoothing of output?

Transmission N-S on Shelf

• Weather data from each station S1 - S11

• Transmission "pools" power

• How much smoothing of output?

• Individual simulated wind farms, such as S2, S10 show frequent, rapid fluctuation in output

• Power from combined grid changes more slowly, rarely reaches min or max power

• Easier to manage, higher value

• Single stations have many high or zero values

• Combined grid clusters around mid-range values

The conventional Wisdom on Energy

• US wind Mainly in the Plains

• All renewables are small

• Renewable energy is expensive

• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time

• Wind is intermittent

The conventional Wisdom on Energy

• US wind Mainly in the Plains

• All renewables are small

• Renewable energy is expensive

• Can’t get major CO2 reductions in time

• Wind is intermittent

ENDENDMore information:

www.carbonfree.udel.edu

Thanks to:Delaware Sea Grant

Delaware Green Energy FundCollege of Earth, Ocean, and Environment, U Delaware

More information:

www.carbonfree.udel.edu

Thanks to:Delaware Sea Grant

Delaware Green Energy FundCollege of Earth, Ocean, and Environment, U Delaware

FERC Office of Enforcement, Increasing Costs in Electric Markets , Item No.: A-3 , June 19, 2008

PV