oregons2015drought slides 23june2017 -...

Outline

1) Issue Context

2) Methods

3) Findings

4) Conclusions

5) Recommendations

May 26, 2015

“The first thing that the rain washes away is memory of a drought.”

Source:U.S.DroughtMonitor

Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

May 26, 2015

“The first thing that the rain washes away is memory of a drought.”

May 22, 2017

Source:U.S.DroughtMonitor

Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

“The first thing that the rain washes away is memory of a drought.”

2015

Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

“The first thing that the rain washes away is memory of a drought.”

2015 2017

Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Looking Ahead

Climate projections indicate that the Pacific Northwest will more

regularly experience warmer and wetter winters and warmer

summers. (Dalton, Mote, & Snover, 2013)

Nehalem River, Dec 2015 (Credit: Kristyna Wentz-Graff) Wickiup Reservoir, 2015 (Source: To The Wild) (Source: Oregon Daily Independent)

So what actually happened?

Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Oregon Water Resources Department

Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Research Question

Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

What documented information exists

about the conditions and impacts experienced, as

well as the response strategies implemented, during

Oregon’s 2015 Drought?

Drought Impacts Reporting

Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Drought Impacts Reporting

DroughtInsufficient water supply to meet the demands of human and

natural systems, due to warm or dry conditions, relative to

historic averages. (influenced by Bumbaco & Mote, 2010)

Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Drought Impacts Reporting

Drought ImpactsThe effects of the drought conditions on

society, the environment, or the economy.

Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Drought Impacts Reporting

Response StrategiesActions taken, or plans developed for future action, to help

mitigate or adapt to the impacts of drought.

Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Drought Impacts Reporting

So what actually happened?

Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Methods

Methods

Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

1) Literature Review§ Challenges

§ Current status

§ Future potential

Methods

2. Analysis of Hydrometeorological Conditions§ Temperature

§ Precipitation

§ Snowpack

§ Streamflow

Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Methods

Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

3) Review and Summary of Documented Impacts and Responses§ Round I

§ databases

§ publicly available documents from reliable entities

§ websites from credible entities

§ government press releases

§ written media coverage

§ existing drought reporters*Verbal accounts not considered “documented”

Methods

Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

3) Review and Summary of Documented Impacts and Responses§ Round I

§ databases

§ publicly available documents from reliable entities

§ websites from credible entities

§ government press releases

§ written media coverage

§ existing drought reporters*Verbal accounts not considered “documented”

§ Round II§ emails and phone calls to agencies, tribes, and service providers

Methods

Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

1) Literature Review

2) Analysis of Hydrometeorological Conditions

3) Review and Summary of Documented Impacts and Responses

4) Interviews

Findings

Findings: Analysis of Conditions

Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Conditions: Temperature and Precipitation

Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies in Oregon (2015)

Water Year:Oct 1, 2014

through Sep 30, 2015

Baseline: 1896-2014Data Source: NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information

2002

1944

1977

1992

1994

2001

2005

2015

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Tem

pera

ture

(°F)

Precipitation (%)

October - March Warm & Dry Warm & Wet

Cold & Dry Cold & Wet

Warm & Dry Warm & Wet

Cold & Dry Cold & Wet

Conditions: Temperature and Precipitation

Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies in Oregon (2015)

Water Year:Oct 1, 2014

through Sep 30, 2015

Baseline: 1896-2014Data Source: NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information

2002

1944

1977

1992

1994

2001

2005

2015

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Tem

pera

ture

(°F)

Precipitation (%)

October - March Warm & Dry Warm & Wet

Cold & Dry Cold & Wet

Warm & Dry Warm & Wet

Cold & Dry Cold & Wet

2002

1944

1977

1992

1994

2001

2005

2015

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Tem

pera

ture

(°F)

Precipitation (%)

April - SeptemberWarm & Dry Warm & Wet

Cold & Dry Cold & Wet

Conditions: Snowpack

Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Data reflect the average SWE measurement taken from Natural Resources Conservation Service snow course measurements and SNOTEL sites (with a range of 33 to 59 total sites for each year). These data were provided by Dr. Philip Mote (Oregon Climate Change Research Institute).

Conditions: Streamflow & Reservoirs

Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Monthly streamflow for June 2015 compared to historic averages. Source: “Drought Information Statement, July 17, 2015,” National Weather Service

Streamflow and Summer Water Supply Volumes (June 2015)

Conditions: Streamflow & Reservoirs

Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Monthly streamflow for June 2015 compared to historic averages. Source: “Drought Information Statement, July 17, 2015,” National Weather Service

Streamflow and Summer Water Supply Volumes (June 2015)

Reservoirs:By September, Oregon’s total reservoir storage was at ~25% capacity compared to historic average of ~50%

Conditions: Streamflow & Reservoirs

Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

The monthly average discharge at a station along Umatilla River during the 2015 water year compared to the historic average. There are no flow regulations or diversions upstream from this gauge. (USGS Site Number: 14020000)

Findings: Impacts and Responses

Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Findings: Impacts and Responses

§Topical Sectors§ agriculture and ranching

§municipal

§ recreation

§ fish and wildlife

§ public health

§ tribal matters

§ business/industry

*groundwater

Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Findings: Impacts & Response Strategies

Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Impacts & Responses: Agriculture & Ranching

§ Shortened irrigation seasons§ Fewer or different crops§ Fallowed lands

§ Reduced yields

§ Early crop progression

Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Source: Oregon Farm Link

§ Livestock stress§ Supplemental feed rations§ Early cattle shipments to feedlots

§ Increased fire risk§ Grant or loan programs

§ Earlier junior water right shutoffs and less allotment

§ Increased uncertainty

Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Source: Family Cow

Impacts & Responses: Agriculture & Ranching

Impacts & Responses: Municipal

§ Less water supply§ Groundwater withdrawals§ Aquifer storage and recovery§ Delivered water from neighbors

§ High temperatures§ e.g., Portland, Salem,

Eugene, Medford, and Klamath Falls

§ Changes in demand§ Voluntary and enforceable

curtailment

Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Source: McKinley Drilling

Impacts & Responses: Recreation

§ Ski Industry§ Less snow

§ Boating§ Boat launches§ Loss in revenue

§ Angling§ Fish die-offs§ Poor fishing conditions

Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsHoward Prairie Lake, 2015 (Credit: Jes Burns)

Howard Prairie Lake (Source: Jackson County)

Impacts & Responses: Fish & Wildlife

§ Fish mortality§ Ecological restoration

§ Increased wildfire§ Forestry Department’s

large-fire costs:§ 2015: $76.7 million§ 10-yr average: $22.3 million

§ Tree die-off

Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Credit: Gary Stewart

Findings: Impacts and Responses

§Topical Sectors§ agriculture and ranching

§municipal

§ recreation

§ fish and wildlife

§ public health

§ tribal matters

§ business/industry

*groundwater

Context Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Conclusions

Conclusions

Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

1) Documented information on drought impacts is fragmented and sparse

2) Some regions and sectors are much more vulnerable to drought than others

3) Groundwater monitoring is very limited Mind the gap…

Recommendations

Recommendations

Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Recommendation #1. Develop a strategic plan for drought impacts monitoring and reporting

Recommendations

Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Recommendation #1. Develop a strategic plan for drought impacts monitoring and reporting

Recommendation #2. Conduct drought impact, risk, and vulnerability assessments on geographic and sectoral scales, and include local stakeholders

Recommendations

Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Recommendation #1. Develop a strategic plan for drought impacts monitoring and reporting

Recommendation #2. Conduct drought impact, risk, and vulnerability assessments on geographic and sectoral scales, and include local stakeholders

Recommendation #3. Develop a long-term sustainable groundwater management plan with clear objectives and metrics

Acknowledgements

With deep gratitude to:Dr. Michael E. Campana | College of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Sciences

Dr. Erika Wolters | OSU Policy Analysis Laboratory

John Stevenson, M.S. | Oregon Climate Change Research Institute

Alyssa Mucken | Oregon Water Resources Department

Dr. Philip Mote | Oregon Climate Change Research Institute

Dr. Todd Jarvis | Institute for Water and Watersheds

Acknowledgements

With deep gratitude to:Dr. Michael E. Campana | College of Earth, Ocean, & Atmospheric Sciences

Dr. Erika Wolters | OSU Policy Analysis Laboratory

John Stevenson, M.S. | Oregon Climate Change Research Institute

Alyssa Mucken | Oregon Water Resources Department

Dr. Philip Mote | Oregon Climate Change Research Institute

Dr. Todd Jarvis | Institute for Water and Watersheds

Thank you!Rianne BeCraft

becraftr@oregonstate.edu

Sources§ Dalton, M., Mote, P., & Snover, A. (Eds.). (2013). Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for

Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities. Island Press. Retrieved from http://occri.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/ClimateChangeInTheNorthwest.pdf

§ Bumbaco, K., & Mote, P. (2010). The Recent Flavors of Drought in the Pacific Northwest.Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 49, 2058–2068. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2423.1

§ Wickiup Reservoir: http://www.tothewild.com/category/conservation/pacific-nw-drought/§ Wildlfire: http://orcattle.com/2015/08/18/wild-fire-assistance-and-donations-for-oregon-ranchers/§ Flood: http://www.oregonlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/12/portland-

area_weather_drenchin.html§ Lit Review: https://www.trentu.ca/futurestudents/degree/english-literature§ Data: http://www.lifehack.org/articles/technology/10-common-spreadsheet-mistakes-youre-

probably-making.html§ Fallowed lands: http://oregonfarmlink.org/land-listing/leasepartnershipincubator-opportunity-up-

to-40-acres-in-creswell-or/§ Weaned calf: http://familycow.proboards.com/thread/58753/determining-weaning-age-beef-calves§ Howard Praire Lake 1: http://jacksoncountyor.org/parks/Camping/Howard-Prairie-Resort§ Howard Prairie Lake 2: http://www.opb.org/news/article/drought-conditions-are-sucking-the-fun-

out-of-northwest-reservoirs/§ Sockeye Salmon: https://thinkprogress.org/why-are-hundreds-of-thousands-of-salmon-dying-in-

the-northwest-211af28b83a2§ Mind the gap: http://www.coreypadveen.com/big-gap-big-data-applications/

Additional Slides

Recommendations

Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

Recommendation #1. On a statewide level, determine: a) priorities and a preferred format for summarizing the effects of drought and response strategies; and b) methods for coordinating and minimizing duplicative efforts around collecting, documenting, sharing, and compiling relevant information (e.g., water supply conditions, effects on sectors and local economies, emergency grant and loan programs).

Recommendation #2. Secure funding and work in partnership to conduct drought risk, vulnerability, and impact assessments on geographic and sectoral scales. Consider incorporating interviews with water resource managers and users into this research.

Recommendation #3. Review and discuss the appropriateness and effectiveness of Oregon’s drought declaration process for counties, drought emergency tools, and water law stipulations that may help or inhibit drought management and response options.

Recommendation #4. Investigate how water conservation and storage efforts have impacted water consumption, and modify or develop policies, policy tools, and programs as appropriate.

Recommendation #5. Increase government capacity for groundwater monitoring and develop a long-term plan for sustainable groundwater management with clear objectives and metrics.

Findings: Conditions

This table shows which months were above, near, or below the historic average for temperature and precipitation during the 2015 water year. The cells highlighted in orange show for which months both the temperature was abnormally high and precipitation was abnormally low. Data are from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/).

Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies in Oregon Temperature Averages (°F) Precipitation Averages (inches) Historic 2015 WY Anomaly Historic 2015 WY Anomaly (% avg.) Oct 54.3 60.5 6.2 2.4 3.5 143.4 Nov 35.9 34.1 -1.8 4.6 4.1 91.0 Dec 31.9 32.4 0.5 4.9 6.2 125.9 Jan 30.7 38.1 7.4 4.6 2.0 42.7 Feb 34.3 41.7 7.4 3.7 3.6 96.8 March 38.5 45.7 7.2 3.5 2.6 74.4 April 44.7 45.6 0.9 2.4 1.6 63.8 May 50.6 53.5 2.9 2.1 2.2 101.9 June 57.3 65.6 8.3 1.5 0.4 28.3 July 65 67.5 2.5 0.5 0.8 155.1 August 67 69.9 2.9 0.6 0.4 62.3 September 57.4 58.2 0.8 1.2 0.8 68.6

Annual 46.6 50.7 4.1 32.08 28.12 87.7

Conditions: Snowpack

Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

2015

1992

1963

1981

2005

2001 19411968

1977 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

SWE(cm)

Rank(1=Lowest, 10=Highest)

TenYearsofLowestSnowpackinOregon(April1,1938-2015)

Data reflect the average SWE measurement taken from Natural Resources Conservation Service snow course measurements and SNOTEL sites (with a range of 33 to 59 total sites for each year). These data were provided by Dr. Philip Mote (Oregon Climate Change Research Institute).

Conditions: Streamflow

Context Methods Findings Conclusions RecommendationsContext Methods Findings Conclusions Recommendations

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

AverageDischarge(CFS)

Month

NorthCentral:MarionCounty,LittleNorthSantiamRiver

2015 HistoricRecord(1932-2014)

The monthly average discharge at a station along Little North Santiam River during the 2015 water year compared to the historic average. There are no flow regulations or diversions upstream from this gauge. (USGS Site Number: 14182500)