regional transportation & land use irem / boma real estate forecast breakfast 2009 rich macias,...

Regional Transportation & Land Use

IREM / BOMAReal Estate Forecast Breakfast 2009

Rich Macias, DirectorRegional & Comprehensive Planning

Southern California Association of GovernmentsJanuary 29, 2009

Largest Metropolitan Planning Organization in US 6 counties188 cities18.5 million people8 million jobs

SCAG region is expected to add 5.5 million persons between 2008 and 2035:– Growth concentrated in 15-34 and 55+ age

groups leading to a greater “dependent population”

– Immigrants and their children will replace aging baby boomers in workforce

Both trends will transform the region’s housing and labor markets and require policy and industry responses.

Demographic Trends

Southern California’sEconomy & Quality of Life -

Challenged by:

Traffic &Infrastructure

Air Quality &Public Health

Housing Affordability

A.B. 32 & S.B. 375: New mandates fortransportation & land use planning

New Challenge: Climate Change

Future growth will need to utilize transportation system more efficiently to: - Reduce Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) - Reduce G.H.G. Emissions

Regional Planning Response

1. Targeted infrastructure investments

2. Innovative financing methods

3. Coordinated land use planning

$531.5 billion (nominal dollars)

1. Infrastructure Investments2008 Regional Transportation Plan

• Highways – close gaps & add lanes• Transit & Rail – move people efficiently• Goods Movement – move freight faster & cleaner

2. Innovative Financing

$531.5 Billion (Nominal)FY2007 – FY2036

Local$286.5B

(54%)

Federal$41.6B(8%)

New$120.1B(23%)

State$83.4B(16%)

(Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding)

Major New Revenue Sources

$120.1 billion(23%)

Value Capture Strategies $3.7 billion

Highway Tolls $22 billion

Gas Tax Adjustment $17 billion

Container Fees $41.5 billion

Private Equity Participation $4.4 billion