rethinking the public interest: a canada 2020 presentation
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8/11/2019 Rethinking the Public Interest: A Canada 2020 Presentation
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Copyright 2014. No reproduction without permission.
Evolving Trends in Values and Attitudes
#Can2020 Conference
October 2, 2014 www.ekos.com
Rethinking the Public Interest:
By Frank Graves
Ottawa, Ontario
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Democracy, Public Institutions, and
Role of Government3.
Values and Ideology:Big Sift! Progressive "ave
#.
$conomy and Social %lass&.&.
%onclusions'.
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Why Values?
(ltimate yardstic)s of societal *reference+ normativeindicators of rigt-rong, goodbad
Glacial, not mercurial
/o monolitic consensus *ossible in increasingly *luralisticsociety
Progressive values -ic dominate and en0oy momentumsocietally are given sort srift by current government
Gro-ing ga* a source of tension -it *ublic interest
1inally, values *roduce emotional engagement 2emotions-in elections
Progressives ave not *layed teir value cards -ell
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0 20 40 60 80 100
Q. If you were to direct Canadian society, how important would you say each of thefollowing goals and values should be?
A clean environment
Freedom
Integrity and ethics
A healthy population
Collective human rights
Security and safetyTolerance
Social equality
Hard work
Sharing of wealth
Prosperity and wealth
Respect for authority
Traditional family values
Minimal gov. intrusions
89
79
7580
83
80
86
81
77
66
79
79
72
72
BASE: Canadians; November 20-29, 2012 (n=1,181), MOE +/- 2.9%, 19 times out of 20
NOVEMBER 2012(mean)
1998(mean)
= Moderate drop since 1998
= Significant drop since 1998
= Small (but statisticallysignificant) drop since 1998
Most Important Goals and Values
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Attitudes on Key Social Issues (ii)
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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Disagree Agree
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46
36
42
22 22
30
1410
20
30
40
50
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Prevention Punishment
BASE (right): Canadians; September 21-25, 2014 (n=1,549), MOE +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20
Additional Powers for Law EnforcementTo what extent do you agree or disagree with the followingstatement: police and intelligence agencies should have morepowers to ensure security even if it means Canadians have togive up some personal privacy safeguards?
Purpose of Criminal Justice SystemWhich of the following four possibilities should be the main goalof the criminal justice system? 1.) Prevention; 2.) Rehabilitation;3.) Deterrence; or 4.) Punishment
BASE (left): Canadians July 16-23, 2013 (n=2,620), MOE +/- 1.9%, 19 times out of 20
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BASE (left): Canadians; September 21-25, 2014 (n=1,549), MOE +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20
Attitudes on Key Social Issues (iii)
Legalization
Marijuana should be legalized
Remain illegalMarijuana should remain illegal
DecriminalizationMarijuana should remain illegal, but possession ofsmall amounts should only carry a fine, not jail time
Legalization of MarijuanaWhich of the following statements comes closets to yourown point of view about the use of marijuana by adults?
Tracking Decriminalization of MarijuanaPlease rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with thefollowing statement: Possession of small amounts of marijuana forpersonal use SHOULD NOT BE A CRIME.
37
30
21
45
50
68
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Oppose Support
BASE (right): Canadians; January 22-27, 2014 (n=1,501), MOE +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20
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Rethinking Canadas Place in the World
Public 0udgement of bot %anadian and "estern decade ofinterventions is largely negative
Strong *reference for traditional model of soft *o-er a**roac over ne-
attem*ts at militarism
7e *ublic are drifting a-ay from a focus on security to oter *riorities
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9
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44
17
22
19
25
DK/NR Negative (1-2) Neither (3) Positive (4-5)
Impact of Western / Canadian Interventions in the Middle EastThinking about Canadian/Western interventions in the Greater Middle East since 2000, do you think the net impact hasbeen mostly negative or mostly positive?
Canadian
Western
Preferred Focus of Canadas Foreign PolicyIn discussions about Canadas foreign policy, what do you think should be the most important consideration?
7 16 37 40
DK/NR Defence Diplomacy Development and aidBASE: Canadians; September 21-25, 2014 (n=1,549), MOE +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20
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Political Ideology: Recent Movements (i)
%anadians istorically less entrenced tan 8mericans and
less small 5c6 conservative
7ree moments of ideological evolution:
i. 4istorical *attern of *lurality small 5l6 liberal, close minorityof small 5c6, large 5neiter6 2stable in latter *art of &9t
century
ii. $nd of ideology *ase -ere 5neiter6 d-arfs leftrigt
iii. /e- moment sees te dominance of *rogressive andnadir for 5neiter6
Dialectical res*onse to un*recedented government from
te rigt!
%olla*se of 5neiter6 *osition reflects a regrettable sift from
te *olitics of consensus to a divided and fragmented
electorate
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1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Small 'c' conservative Neither Small 'l' liberalBASE: Canadians; September 21-25, 2014 (n=1,549), MOE +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20
Political Ideology: Recent Movements (ii)
I. Stable HistoricalResult
III. New ProgressiveWave
II. End ofIdeology?
Q. Forgetting about your current party choice, do you consider yourself a small "l"liberal or a small "c" conservative?
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Conclusions: Values
Values matter
Gro-ing mismatc bet-een *artisan and overall *ublic
values and tra0ectories
8ll evidence *oints to a *rofound *rogressive -ave2attitudes, values, and ideology
Progressive values must also be central to recovery of*ublic interest 2and *olitical success
%anadians value bot conservative and *rogressivevalues, but current s)e- is increasingly unreflective ofsifting %anadian centre
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Democracy, Public Institutions, and
Role of Government3.
Values and Ideology:Big Sift! Progressive "ave
#.
$conomy and Social %lass&.&.
%onclusions'.
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Worse offAbout the sameBetter off
BASE (left): Canadians; September 21-25, 2014 (n=774), MOE +/- 3.5%, 19 times out of 20
Generational Outlook and Social Class
Generational OutlookThinking about your overall quality of life do you thinkthe next generation will be better off, worse off, or aboutthe same as you are 25 years from now?
Self-Rated Social ClassWould you describe you and your household as poor, working class,middle class, or upper class?
6261
46
67
6263
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48 47
40
50
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70
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
US Canada
BASE (right): Canadians; December 12-15, 2013 (n=3,468), MOE +/- 1.7%, 19 times out of 20
% who say MIDDLE CLASS
1ears are igest -en turned to te future, *articularly concerns aboutretirement
7e grey outloo) on te *resent turns almost blac) as te *ublic *onder tefate of future generations
It a**ears tat -e ave at least tem*orarily reaced te end of *rogress, te
defining acievement of liberal ca*italism
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20
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NA/DK/NR Less (1-3) About the same (4) More (5-7)
All respondents
45-64
65+
25-44
Q. hin#ing about your current annual income and comparing that to what your father earned atthe same age as you are now, would you say that, using inflation$ad%usted dollars, you earn more,less, or about the same as your father?
BASE: Canadians; December 12-20, 2013 (n=1,531), MOE +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20
Income Relative to Father*
7y*ical yout o*timism muted
%urrent generation sees itself falling bac)-ard and sees an even stee*erdecline in future
Do-n-ard intergenerational mobility as trebled from seniors to under '?
& 'ower female labour force participation rate and historical gender ine(uality confound mother comparison
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Fallen Behind Stayed the same Moved ahead
CEOs of large companies
Banking/financial services employees
Manual and blue collar workers
Middle class households
Public sector employees
Q. )o you believe the following groups have moved ahead,
fallen behind, or stayed the same over the last *+ years?
Incentives and Long-Term Winners
15
64 16 Disagree
NeitherAgree
Our incentive systems arebroken and hard work is nolonger producing the same
rewards that it used to
Q. Please rate the etent to which you
agree or disagree with the followingstatement!
%anadians no longer convinced tat te economy is *roviding tebalance of incentives and fairness -ic *ermit economic and societal*rogress
>iddle class sees itself as te *rimary loser over longer term
BASE: Canadians; September 21-25, 2014 (n=1,549), MOE +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20
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Consequences of Inequality
7oo little gro-t is going to an increasingly slender coortand te rest are left -it a simmering sense of betrayal anddes*air
>ost foresee serious generational strains as tese *ressures
gro- dramatically as -e unbundle te data from older toyounger citi@ens
Soc)ingly, te ma0ority sees tis tra0ectory leading to te
*ossibility of !iol"nt class con#licts if tese trends continue
-ge .ather than /ender 0ecoming the 1ew Income )ivide2
$%onference Board of %anada 2Se*t &9#'
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Democracy, Public Institutions, and
Role of Government3.
Values and Ideology:Big Sift! Progressive "ave
#.
$conomy and Social %lass&.&.
%onclusions'.
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20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1958 1966 1974 1982 1990 1998 2006 2014
Direction of Country and Government
BASE: Canadians; September 21-25, 2014 (n=1,549), MOE +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20
Public confidence in direction of country and trust in governmentreacing ne- lo-s
20
30
40
50
60
70
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Government Country
Q. -ll things considered, would you say thecountry 3 /overnment of Canada is movingin the right direction or the wrong direction?
% who say WRONG DIRECTION % who say MOST/ALL THE TIME
Q. 4ow much do you trust the government inOttawa35ashington to do what is right?
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
BASE: Canadians; September 21-25, 2014 (n=1,549), MOE +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20
Size of Government
% who say SMALLER GOVERNMENT
Q. /enerally spea#ing, which of the following would you say thatyou favour?
67 a larger governmentwith higher taes and more services8*7 asmaller governmentwith lower taes and fewer services
%anadians are rece*tive to a more effective and activegovernment
Averall trend is away from for lo-er ta;es and smaller government
Value of minimal government as declined significantly since #C
Q. 5hich of the following do youthin# would be the best optionfor moving Canada forward?
44 57
Increasing the role of governmentto invest in new areas such as job creation, publicinfrastructure, and stronger social security
Reducing the size of governmentand providing targeted tax relief in order to allow
the private sector to propel growth and jobs
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3
10
2
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75
89
DK/NR Disagree (1-3) Neither (4) Agree (5-7)
5I -ould *ersonally feel better about government decisionma)ing ifgovernments -ere mor" transpar"nt6
Q. Please rate the etent to which you agree or disagree with the followingstatements!
BASE: Canadians; September 21-25, 2014 (n=1,549), MOE +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20
5I -ould *ersonally feel better about government decisionma)ing if I )ne- tatgovernment so$%&t in#orm"' inp$t #rom a!"ra%" citi("ns on a regular basis6
8s trust and legitimacy furter decline, tere may be t-o boo)ends-ic can el*:
#. 7ransform government from blac) bo; to glass bo;
&. Re*resentative, reflective, and informed citi@en in*ut as a routine
*art of governance bet-een elections
Need for Transparency/Citizen Engagement
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Oppose (1-3) Neither (4) Support (5-7)
2013
2014
BASE: Canadians; September 21-25, 2014 (n=1,549), MOE +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20
Q.- number of countries such as -ustralia and 0ra9il have implementedcompulsory voting, where citi9ens are re(uired to vote in elections: 5ould you
oppose or support introducing compulsory voting in Canada?
Support for Compulsory Voting
>andatory voting migt reset democracy, return young%anada to te electorate, and cause *arties to sift from
getouttevote and retail narro-casting to te overall*ublic interest
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Democracy, Public Institutions, and
Role of Government3.
Values and Ideology:Big Sift! Progressive "ave
#.
$conomy and Social %lass&.&.
%onclusions'.
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Conclusions (i)
Beneat an a**arently *lacid surface, *rofound canges aretransforming %anada
7e tree most im*ortant may be:
i. 8 clear *rogressive -ave -ic sees mounting unsustainable tensionbet-een *olitical status uo and evolving values and ideologicalorientations.
ii. 8n end to te traditional *atterns of *rogress and a srin)ing and
*essimistic middle class. (ncorrected, tese trends im*eril te future ofliberal ca*italism in /ort 8merica.
iii. 8n un*recedented colla*se of trust in democracy and *ublicinstitutions -ic is a**roacing a legitimacy crisis. "idening fault linesacross generations and social class.
7ese *rofound *roblems are relatively recent and interde*endent. 7eyare also correctable but -ill not selfcorrect.
"indo- closing for dealing -it tis!
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Conclusions (ii)
8 gro-ing failure of our incentive system
%anadians are rece*tive to a bold ne- vision -ic incor*orates afres blue*rint for restarting *rogress and restoring legitimacy
7e role of state and *ublic institutions -ill be te critical contestedterrain.
Values are also a crucial ingredient
"e need a real commitment to trans*arency and a citi@en
focussed government -ic routinely engages te *ublic
>oreover, -e need a ne-, more active, agile state -ic acts as
a strategic bro)er, not a large *arental bureaucracy
7e rise of te *ermanent cam*aign occurs against a sar*ly erodingfait in democracy in general and *olitics in *articular
=ess dar) o*s and more focus on *ublic interest
7is starts -it listening to %anadians, not mani*ulating tem
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Fran) *ra!"s+,- ."s"arc& Associat"s
#%ra!"s/")oscom
613 2357215
www.ekos.com
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