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SCB:Population projection for Sweden
The population forecast is produced yearly Every third year a thorough investigation of
assumptions is undertaken with alternatives.
Demographic reports
Calibration of assumptions for years in between. Main alternative.
Statistiska meddelanden
Forecast users
Public authorities (National insurance board, pension funds etc.
Federation of county councils, communes
Departement of finance
Researchers
Eurostat
The public
The official population projection for Sweden
Prediction of the population by sex, age, foreign born /Swedish born and calendar-year (up to 2050)
The projection model is deterministic the prediction creates expected values of the population
Annual projection according to the component method
Latest population by sex, age (1-year age-groups) and Sweden born/foreign born, (31/12), is base population
Newborn and immigrants each year are included
Deaths and emigrants are excluded
Recursive projection model
where number of males/females at the end of year t, born t-x
number of deaths for males/females during year t, born t-x
number of immigrants and emigrants (males/females) during year t, born t-x.
x = age
The first age group x=0 is separately calculated from the number of births during the projection year.
**** The model is made in Excel with Visual basic for applications.
t
x
t
x
t
x
t
x
t
x UIDPP +=
1
11x
=txP
=txD
=txt
x UI ,
Population changes calculated by rates each year
Mortality risks by age and sex (net prob.)
Emigration risks by age, sex and Swedish/ foreign born (crude prob.)
Immigration (exogenous) distributed by age, sex and Swedish/ foreign born
Fertility rates by age
Brief description of assumptions in latest forecast 2004-2050
AssumptionsTFR Life expectancy Netmigration
Males Females2003 1,71 77,91 82,43 28772
2010 1,86 79,2 83,18 283002020 1,85 80,76 84,22 252002030 1,85 81,94 85,02 245002040 1,85 82,91 85,69 237002050 1,85 83,6 86,18 23300
Number of persons in thousands
Year Women Men Total
0-19 20-64 65+ 0-19 20-64 65+
2003 1 047 2 602 880 1 105 2 680 662 8 976
2005 1 055 2 626 884 1 112 2 702 676 9 056
2010 1 043 2 670 950 1 099 2 737 770 9 267
2020 1 088 2 693 1 096 1 146 2 751 946 9 720
2030 1 139 2 720 1 213 1 200 2 765 1 067 10 104
2040 1 144 2 764 1 288 1 205 2 808 1 143 10 352
2050 1 174 2 861 1 294 1 237 2 911 1 153 10 630
Children 10-12 years, 13-15 and 16-18
0
200
400
600
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Number in 1000s
10-12 years
Forecast 2003-2050
13-15 years
16-18 years
Number of persons aged 20-64. Millions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
20-64
20-64 forecast
Number of persons aged 65 or older
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
65+
65-79
80+ years
Number in 1000s
Forecast 2003-2050
Projection methods for components
***FertilityShort term ARIMA Period-cohort modelLongterm Cohort trend model
***MigrationShort term Trendanalysis for groups of migrantsLongterm Long term net-migration analysis
***MortalityShort term Lee-CarterLongterm Lee-Carter based on causes of death
Cohort fertility 1870-1960
0
1
2
3
4
5
1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950
Number of children per woman/man
Cohort
Women
Men
Period fertility and forecast
0
1
2
3
4
5
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Number of children per women/man
Year
Women
Men Forecast
Migration 1950-2003 and forecast
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Immigration
Emigration
ImmigrationAssumptions
EmigrationAssumptions
Risks of death males (per mill.)
1 0
1 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 9 5 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 5 0
D d a p e r m iljo nL o g a r it m is k s k a la ld e r
r
9 0
8 0
1 0 0
7 0
6 0
5 0
1 0
3 0
4 0
2 0
M n
Risks of death females per mill.
1 0
1 0 0
1 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 9 5 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 5 0
D d a p e r m iljo nL o g a r itm is k s k a la ld e r
r
9 0
8 0
1 0 0
7 0
6 0
5 0
1 0
3 0
4 0
2 0
K v in n o r
Lee-Carter model for trend
txtxxtx kbam ,, )ln( ++= ,
xa = age-specific average mortality tk = trend factor in mortality xb = age-specific weight of trend
tx , = random term
Remaining life expectancy in years for a person aged 65 (1900-2050)
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
1900 1950 2000 2050
Men
Women
forecast M
forecast W
Observed and projected changes 2003
Observed Forecast DifferenceBirths 99157 98200 957Net-migration 28772 29600 -828Deaths 92961 93600 -639
Total change 34968 34200 768
Deaths by age 2003. Women
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0 20 40 60 80 100
observedforecast
umber
Deaths by age 2003. Men
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0 20 40 60 80 100
Number
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