short term and mid term load forecast
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Short Term and Mid Term Load Forecast
John DumasSupervisor, Operations Planning
ERCOTJanuary 24, 2007
2
ERCOT Load Forecasts
• ERCOT uses three primary types of load forecast.– Long Term – Mid Term– Short Term
• This presentation will cover only short term and mid term load forecast.
3
Short Term Load Forecast
• Period covered:– Every 5 minute period for the next hour.– The STLF program runs every 5 minutes.
• Used for:– Determining Balancing Energy deployments 25 minutes prior to
the start of the interval.
• Developed by AREVA
4
STLF Error
Month
MAPE for STLF run at 40 min Ahead (2005)
MAPE for STLF run at 40 min Ahead (2006)
January 0.77 0.86
February 1.24 0.81
March 0.77 0.72
April 0.78 1.68
May 0.73 1.27
June 0.51 0.54
July 0.57 0.51
August 0.58 0.53
September 0.63 0.71
October 0.75 0.75
November 0.77 0.79
December 0.78 0.74
Average MAPE for Year 0.74 0.83
5
Mid Term Load Forecast
• Period covered:– Each hour period for the next 7 days.– The MTLF program runs every hour.
• Used for:– Day Ahead reliability studies.– Decisions on Unit Commitment
• OOMC• Replacement Reserve
• Developed by:– AREVA– PRT
6
MTLF Error
Month
MAPE for MTLF run at 16:00 Day Ahead
(2004)
MAPE for MTLF run at 16:00 Day Ahead
(2005)
MAPE for MTLF run at 16:00 Day Ahead
(2006)
MAPE for MTLF run at 16:00 Day Ahead (2006) with Standard Deviation
January 4.76 5.02 4.79 N/A
February 4.81 3.47 4.81 N/A
March 2.89 3.41 4.95 N/A
April 3.23 3.37 5.59 N/A
May 3.93 4.21 3.59 N/A
June 4.85 3.91 2.65 3.46
July 5.07 5.22 2.62 3.29
August 4.10 4.86 2.09 2.61
September 3.66 6.24 4.03 N/A
October 3.85 4.51 3.63 N/A
November 3.60 4.53 3.28 N/A
December 4.18 5.95 3.44 N/A
Average MAPE for Year 4.08 4.56 3.79 N/A
7
Causes of MTLF Error
• Error in Weather Forecast– Temperature– Humidity– Wind Chill– No good way to account for probability of rain
• Load Response– May be based on energy cost (MCP) or 4CP anticipation– ERCOT has limited knowledge of this behavior
8
January 15, 2007
MTLF Day Ahead 16:00 MAPE: 5.84
01-15-2007 LOAD FORECAST VS ACTUAL LOAD
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
HOURS
ER
RO
R %
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
MW
APE %
SUM(FORECASTMW)
ACTUAL
9
January 15, 2007
01-15-2007 LOAD FORECAST ANALYSIS WITH TEMPERATURE FOR COAST
30
35
40
45
50
55
0:00
2:00
4:00
6:00
8:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
HOURS
TE
MP
ER
AT
UR
E
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
MW
FORECAST TEMP
ACTUAL TEMP
FORECAST MW
ACTUALLOAD
10
January 15, 2007
01-15-2007 LOAD FORECAST ANALYSIS WITH TEMPERATURE FOR NORTH_C
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
0:00
2:00
4:00
6:00
8:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
HOURS
TE
MP
ER
AT
UR
E
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
18000
19000
MW
FORECAST TEMP
ACTUAL TEMP
FORECAST MW
ACTUALLOAD
11
January 15, 2007
01-15-2007 LOAD FORECAST ANALYSIS WITH TEMPERATURE FOR SOUTH_C
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
0:00
2:00
4:00
6:00
8:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
HOURS
TE
MP
ER
AT
UR
E
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
MW
FORECAST TEMP
ACTUAL TEMP
FORECAST MW
ACTUALLOAD
12
January 16, 2007MTLF Day Ahead 16:00 MAPE: 6.0
01-16-2007 LOAD FORECAST VS ACTUAL LOAD
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1:00
2:00
3:00
4:00
5:00
6:00
7:00
8:00
9:00
10:0
011
:0012
:00
13:0
014
:0015
:0016
:0017
:00
18:0
019
:0020
:0021
:0022
:00
23:0
00:
00
HOURS
ER
RO
R %
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
MW
APE %
SUM(FORECASTMW)
ACTUAL
13
January 16, 2007
01-16-2007 LOAD FORECAST ANALYSIS WITH TEMPERATURE FOR COAST
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
0:00
2:00
4:00
6:00
8:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
HOURS
TE
MP
ER
AT
UR
E
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
MW
FORECAST TEMP
ACTUAL TEMP
FORECAST MW
ACTUALLOAD
14
January 16, 2007
01-16-2007 LOAD FORECAST ANALYSIS WITH TEMPERATURE FOR NORTH_C
15
20
25
30
35
40
0:00
2:00
4:00
6:00
8:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
HOURS
TE
MP
ER
AT
UR
E
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
18000
19000
MW
FORECAST TEMP
ACTUAL TEMP
FORECAST MW
ACTUALLOAD
15
January 16, 2007
01-16-2007 LOAD FORECAST ANALYSIS WITH TEMPERATURE FOR SOUTH_C
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
0:00
2:00
4:00
6:00
8:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
HOURS
TE
MP
ER
AT
UR
E
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
MW
FORECAST TEMP
ACTUAL TEMP
FORECAST MW
ACTUALLOAD
16
January 17, 2007MTLF Day Ahead 16:00 MAPE: 2.63
01-17-2007 LOAD FORECAST VS ACTUAL LOAD
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1:00
3:00
5:00
7:00
9:00
11:0
013
:00
15:0
017
:00
19:0
021
:00
23:0
0
HOURS
ER
RO
R %
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
MW
APE
SUM(FORECASTMW)
ACTUAL LOAD
17
January 17, 2007
01-17-2007 LOAD FORECAST ANALYSIS WITH TEMPERATURE FOR COAST
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
0:00
2:00
4:00
6:00
8:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
HOURS
TE
MP
ER
AT
UR
E
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
MW
FORECAST TEMP
ACTUAL TEMP
FORECAST MW
ACTUALLOAD
18
January 17, 2007
01-17-2007 LOAD FORECAST ANALYSIS WITH TEMPERATURE FOR NORTH_C
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
0:00
2:00
4:00
6:00
8:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
HOURS
TE
MP
ER
AT
UR
E
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
18000
19000
MW
FORECAST TEMP
ACTUAL TEMP
FORECAST MW
ACTUALLOAD
19
January 17, 2007
01-17-2007 LOAD FORECAST ANALYSIS WITH TEMPERATURE FOR SOUTH_C
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
0:00
2:00
4:00
6:00
8:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00
HOURS
TE
MP
ER
AT
UR
E
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
MW
FORECAST TEMP
ACTUAL TEMP
FORECAST MW
ACTUALLOAD
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