violence and terrorism in latin america in … and terrorism in latin america a global context : an...

VIOLENCE AND TERRORISM IN LATIN AMERICAA GLOBAL CONTEXT: AN OVERVIEW

HUDSON INSTITUTE August 24th 2017

GUSTAVO TARRE

POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND TERRORISM IN VENEZUELA

“What we failed to achieve with votes, we will do withweapons”

NICOLAS MADURO, JUNE 27 th, 2017

"Hate as a factor of struggle; the intransigent hatred of the enemy, which pushes beyond the limitations of the human being and makes it an effective, violent, selective and cold killing machine "

ERNESTO GUEVARA, APRIL 1967

VENEZUELA: A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE

1811-1824INDEPENDENCE WAR, 1/3 OF POPULATION DIED

1811-1958VIOLENCE WAS THE USUAL WAY OF REACHING AND RETAINING POWER

1964: FOR THE FIRST TIME AN ELECTED PRESIDENT ENDED HIS TERM IN OFFICE

VENEZUELA: A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE

1959-1999 : 9 PRESIDENTS IN A ROW WERE ELECTED BY VENEZUELAN PEOPLENEVERTHELESS:

1959-1970► SEVERAL FAILED MIL ITARY COUPS

► THE RADICAL LEFT FOLLOWING THE CUBAN EXAMPLE CHOOSE THE PATH OF ARMED INSURRECTION

VENEZUELA: A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE

1992: CHAVEZ VIOLENT COUP FAILED

1998: HUGO CHAVEZ IS ELECTED PRESIDENT

1999: AUTHORITARIAN DRIFT.

STEP BY STEP THE AUTHORITARIAN DOOR OF VIOLENCE OPENS AGAIN

VENEZUELA: A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE

END OF CHECK AND BALANCES INTOLERANCE SPLIT OF THE PEOPLE IN TWO

SIDES

GOOD AND BAD REVOLUTIONARY AND

BOURGEOIS PATRIOTS AND TRAITORS

VENEZUELA: A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE

2004 COUP AGAINST CHAVEZ RIGGED ELECTIONS MORE THAN 30 POLITICAL LEADERS DISQUALIFIED

FROM HOLDING POLITICAL OFFICES POLITICIANS AND JUDGES IN JAIL LACK OF PRESS FREEDOM HUMAN WRIGHTS VIOLATIONS PARAMILITARY GOVERNMENT SPONSORED BANDS HUGE CORRUPTION EXCESSIVE CUBAN INTERFERANCE

NICOLAS MADURO‘S TIMES

ECONOMIC CRISIS ( WICH STARTEDBEFORE CHAVEZ DEATH AND OILPRICES DROPPED)

THE OPPOSITION OBJECTIONS TO THEMADURO’S ELECTION BY 1.4% MARGINWERE NEVER HEARD BY ELECTORALAUTHORITIES OR COURTS

CORRUPTION AND SCARCITY

NICOLAS MADURO‘S TIMES

• FEBRUARY 2014: STUDENT AND POPULAR UPRISING

MORE THAN 40 DEATHS

• THE PRACTICE INICIATED BY CHAVEZ, TO EMPTY OF CONTENT THEELECTORAL VICTORY’S OF THE OPPOSITION DID NOT STOP:

G O V E R N O R A N D M AY O R S H I P E L E C T I O N

C O N S T I T U T I O N A L R E F E R E N D U M 2 0 0 7

N AT I O N A L A S S E M B LY E L E C T I O N 2 0 1 5

NICOLAS MADURO‘S TIMES

I N V E N E Z U E L A T H E R E A R E M O R E T H A N 4 5 0 P O L I T I C A L P R I S O N E R S , A M O N G T H E M L E O P O L D O L Ó P E Z , A N T O N I O L E D E Z M A , M A Y O R O F C A R A C A S . A N D F I V E D A Y S A G O , L U I S A O R T E G A D Í A Z , T H E A T T O R N E Y G E N E R A L W E N T T O E X I L E .

NICOLAS MADURO‘S TIMES

• 2016 THE ELECTORAL AUTHORITIES REFUSED TOHOLD A RECALL REFERENDUM AND REGIONAL ELECTIONS WERE POSTPONED

• 2014 - 2017 ECONOMIC DISASTER

• 2017 POLITICAL DISARRAY

BLACK

MARKET

INFLATION

RESERVES

GDP

ANNUAL

GROWTH

FOOD

SCARCITY

INDEX

NICOLAS MADURO‘S T IMES

• A P R I L 2 0 1 7 : A J U D G E M E N T O F T H E S U P R E M E C O U R T D E P R I V E D T H EN AT I O N A L A S S E M B Y O F A L L O F I T S C O N S T I T U T I O N A L P O W E R S

• 1 2 0 D AY S O F P O P U L A R U P R A I S I N G S TA R T E D :1 2 9 D E AT H 2 0 0 0 I N J U R E D5 0 0 0 A R R E S T E D 4 5 0 P R O S E C U T E D

JULY 16th 2017:

AN INFORMAL REFERENDUM AGAINST MADURO WAS CALLED BY THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY

7,500,000 VENEZUELAN VOTED

JULY 30TH 2017INCONSTITUTIONALCOSTITUENT ASSEMBLY WAS “ELECTED”.

MASSIVE FRAUD:

INDEPENDENT TURNOUT ESTIMATION: 3,000,000 VOTERS

OFFICIAL RESULTS 8,000,000

T E R R O R I S M

1 . A S A W AY O F T A K I N G P O W E R : 1 9 6 0 - 1 9 7 0

2 . S T A T E S P O N S O R E D T E R R O R I S M : 2 0 0 4 -2 0 1 7 :

a ) V I O L E N T P A R A M I L I T A R Y G R O U P S A C T I N G A G A I N S T P R O T E S T E R S , K I L L I N G A N D I N J U R I N G P E O P L E A N D C O N T R O L I N G P A R T O F T H E C I T I E S A N D I R R E G U L A R B A N D S H O L D P A R T S O F T H E T E R R I T O R Y.

b ) L I N K S W I T H I N T E R N A T I O N A L T E R R O R I S M

T E R R O R I S M

L I N K S W I T H I N T E R N E T I O N A L T E R R O R I S T G R O U P S

1 . F A R C / E L N / D R U G G T R A F I C K I N G

2 . I R A N ( A V O I D A N C E O F S A N C T I O N S )

3 . H E Z B O L L A H

T E R R O R I S M

1.PROVISION OF SAFE HAVEN AND FACILITIES

2. FALSE DOCUMENTATION: VENEZUELANPASSPORTS

3. HELP IN FINANTIAL TRANSACTIONS4. DIPLOMATIC PROTECTION

W H AT C O M E S N E X T ?

R E G I O N A L E L E C T I O N S - O C T O B E R 2 0 1 7 ) C I V I L W A R O R A W A R A G A I N S T

C I V I L I A N S ? W E A P O N S R O B B E R Y I N A R M Y

F A C I L I T I E S I S A C A U S E O F C O N C E R N

A C I V I L WA R I N V O LV E S T W O A R M E D S I D E S

W H AT C O M E S N E X T ?

- M A D U R O ’ S G O V E R N M E N T C O N T I N U E SM U R D E R I N GI M P R I S O N I N G P E O P L ET O R T U R I N G

“ BEHIND EVERY DETAINEE, EVERY POLIT ICAL PRISONER, BEHIND EVERY PERSON TORTURED AND K ILLED THERE IS SOMEONE INST ITUT IONALLY RESPONSIBLE IN VENEZUELA”

L U I S A L M A G R O

G E N E R A L S E C R E T A R Y O A S , U S A S E N A T E J U L Y 1 9 t h , 2 0 1 7 . H E A R I N G O N V E N E Z U E L A

W H AT C O M E S N E X T ? M O R E V I O L E N C E

ONE MUST TAKE IN ACCOUNT THE ECONOMIC CRIS IS AND GOVERNMENT INHABIL ITY FOR POL IC IES CHANGES

1 . OPEN MIL ITARY D ICTACTORSHIP

W I T H M A D U R O ( Ta l l e y r a n d : “ T h e o n l y t h i n g y o u c a n n o t d o w i t h a b a y o n e t i s s i t o n i t ” )

W I T H O U T M A D U R O

2 . INTERNATIONAL PRESSURES, STREET DEMONSTRATIONS AND MIL ITARY UNREST LEAD TO A TRANSIT ION GOVERNMENT AND GENERAL ELECTIONS

3 . FOREIGN MIL ITARY INTERVENTION