an overview of fleet numerical meteorology and oceanography

Mike ClancyTechnical Director

An Overview of Fleet Numerical Meteorology

and Oceanography Center (FNMOC)

16 August 2010

Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…


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Fleet Numerical…

• The U.S. Navy’s Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Center– Global and regional meteorological and oceanographic models

– Weather satellite imagery products

– Tactical decision aids

– High Performance Computing (HPC) at all levels of classification (UNCLAS, SECRET, TOP SECRET)

– The only global NWP Center protected from cyberwarfare attack to DoD Information Assurance (IA) Standards

– Closely partnered with the Marine Meteorology Division of NRL (R&D support) and the Naval Oceanographic Office(co-production of operational products)

...enabling fleet safety & warfighting effectiveness

http://www.news.navy.mil/view_single.asp?id=51116

Naval Meteorology & Oceanography


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Naval Special Warfare

ISR

Navigation

Precise Time and Astrometry

Fleet Operations

Maritime Operations

Aviation OperationsFleet Safety1 and Near-Term

Operational Readiness

National Missions

Today’s Fight

Mine Warfare

Anti-Submarine Warfare

Navy Operations

FNMOC is the Key Enabler

for the Top 3 CNMOC Priorities

1Keeping the Navy’s new Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) safe

from weather threats is an area of growing concern.


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Organizational Profile

• Highly technical, educated, and warfare experienced workforce consisting of military, civilians, and contractors

– ~20 Officers

• 55% with MS Degree

• 25% will attend NPS next tour

• Wardroom includes: 1 UK Exchange Officer and 1 USAF Exchange Officer

– ~20 Enlisted

• 63% with Advanced Navy Specialty Training

• Several on Individual Augmentation (IA) assignments overseas

– ~140 Government Civilians & Contractors:

• Predominantly Physical Science and IT specialties(Meteorology, Oceanography, Computer Sciences)

• PhD – 3%, MS Degree - 23%, BS Degree - 34%

• ~$25M annual budget


Models

• FNMOC operates a highly integrated and

cohesive suite of operational global and

regional weather and ocean models:

– Navy Operational Global Atmospheric

Prediction System (NOGAPS)

– Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale

Prediction System (COAMPS)

– Navy Atmospheric Variational Data

Assimilation System (NAVDAS/NAVDAS-AR)

– Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System

(NAAPS)

– GFDN Tropical Cyclone Model

– WaveWatch 3 (WW3) Ocean Wave Model

– Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation

(NCODA) System

– Ensemble Forecast System (EFS)

15 km

0 km

10 km

5 km

60 m s-1

20 m s-1

0 m s-1

40 m s-1

SierraOwensValley

Mountain

Wave

l~30 km

Obs ~28 km

Cross section of temperature and wind speeds from

COAMPS showing mountain waves over the Sierras

Surface Pressure and Clouds

Predicted by NOGAPS


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Naval Meteorology and

Oceanography Concept of Operations

Linking Forecasts to Decisions


888

NAAPS

Ensemble

High-Level View of Navy Modeling

Architecture

NOGAPSCOAMPS

WW3

NAVO

Ocean Models

GFDN

BonD Tier 1 Database

Fleet Safety and Efficiency (SUBWEAX, AWIS, FWB,

ATCF,METEOGRAMS, WebSAR, TDP, DAF, OPARS, PFPS, AOTSR)

Warfighting Effectiveness (EM/EO Forecasts, TAWS, AREPS,

BALLWINDS, Vis/Dust Products, Atmospheric Acoustic Forecasts)

Ballistic Missile Targeting (CEEMS, WRIP)

Sat Imagery

Piracy Performance

Surface

Acoustic

Performance

Surface

Other ASW, MIW

and Ocean Products

Theater and On-

Scene Weather

and Ocean

Forecasting


999

NAAPS

Ensemble

NOGAPSCOAMPS

WW3

NAVO

Ocean Models

GFDN

BonD Tier 1 Database

Fleet Safety and Efficiency (SUBWEAX, AWIS, FWB,

ATCF,METEOGRAMS, WebSAR, TDP, DAF, OPARS, PFPS, AOTSR)

Warfighting Effectiveness (EM/EO Forecasts, TAWS, AREPS,

BALLWINDS, Vis/Dust Products, Atmospheric Acoustic Forecasts)

Ballistic Missile Targeting (CEEMS, WRIP)

Sat Imagery

Piracy Performance

Surface

Acoustic

Performance

Surface

Other ASW, MIW

and Ocean Products

Theater and On-

Scene Weather

and Ocean

Forecasting

High-Level View of Navy Modeling

Architecture


• State-of-the-art global

spectral model

• Run 4 times per day with

forecasts to 180 hours

• Provides lateral boundary

conditions for COAMPS

• Drives global WW3 at FNMOC

• Drives global ocean circulation

models at NAVO

• One of the leading tropical

cyclone track forecast models

in the world

• Developed and supported by

NRL0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

24 HR 48 HR 72 HR 96 HR 120HR

198919901991

19921993199419951996

199719981999200020012002

200320042005

Fo

rec

as

t S

kill

Forecast Time

Surface Pressure and Clouds from NOGAPS

Navy Operational Global Atmospheric

Prediction System (NOGAPS)

Improvement of NOGAPS Forecast Skill


Modeling Changes in Past Year

• NAVDAS

– Local Area Coverage Winds

– NOAA-19 AVHRR Radiances (July 2009)

• NOGAPS T239L42/NAVDAS-AR 4DVAR (Sep 2009)

• NAVDAS-AOD (Oct 2009)

• EFS

– Banded ET (Feb 2010)

– Forecast extended to 16 days (Feb 2010)

– Extended number of members to 20 (April 2010)

• GFDN 3D POM in West Pacific (Jun 2009)

• WW3 Wave Height Assimilation (Sep 2009)

• NOGAPS T319L42 (May 10)


Navy Atmospheric Data Assimilation System-

Accelerated Representer (NAVDAS-AR)

The Navy’s 4D-VAR data assimilation

Monthly Averaged NOGAPS

SHEM TAU120 500 hPa Height

Anomaly Correlation by Year

NAVDAS-AR

Effective 28 September


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

24 48 72 96 120

NGPI

AVNI

GFDI

HWFI

TVCN

OFCL

2010 Atlantic (to date..7/26)

Homogeneous TC Forecast Error

28 19 14 Number of Forecasts10 4

Fo

rec

as

t E

rro

r (n

m)

NOGAPS

Forecast Hour

NOGAPS

GFS

GFDL

HWRF

Consensu

s+ECMWF

Official

MODELS

Tropical Cyclone Track Errors


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

24 48 72 96 120

NGPI

AVNI

CONW

OFCL

2010 Western North Pacific (to date..7/26)



Fo

rec

as

t E

rro

r (n

m)

Forecast Hour

NOGAPS

NOGAPS

GFS

Consensus

+ECMWF

Official

MODELS



0

50

100

150

200

250

24 48 72 96 120

NGPI

AVNI

GFDI

HWFI

TVCN

OFCL

2010 Eastern North Pacific (to date..7/26)



Fo

rec

as

t E

rro

r (n

m)

Forecast Hour

NOGAPS

NOGAPS

GFS

GFDL

HWRF

Consensu

s+ECMWF

Official

MODELS



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NOGAPS low-level wind fields have always been as good as, or

better than, GFS and others.

CDAS is the model that NCEP has left frozen for the past 5 years.

NOGAPS 850 mb Wind AC Scores


17CDAS is the model that NCEP has left frozen for the past 5 years.

Though NOGAPS 500 mb height skill generally lags that of

GFS, there are months where it equals or betters GFS.

NOGAPS 500 mb Height AC Scores


Ensemble Forecast System (EFS)

• Based on NOGAPS Forecasts, twice per

day to16 days, 20 members, T119L30

resolution

• Ensemble Transform perturbations in 5

latitude bands

• Also includes WW3 (WaveWatch III)

Forecasts, twice per day, 10 days, 20

members

• Gridded mean and standard deviation

products for winds, air temp, pressure,

heights, humidity available via CAGIPS

and METCAST

• Web Graphics of means and standard

deviations for standard WxMAP areas

and variables; plus probability of wind

speed exceeding 20, 35 and 50 kt, and

probability of wave height exceeding 4,

8, 12, 18 and 24 ft

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Modeling Changes in Past Year

• NAVDAS

– Local Area Coverage Winds

– NOAA-19 AVHRR Radiances (July 2009)

• NOGAPS T239L42/NAVDAS-AR 4DVAR (Sep 2009)

• NAVDAS-AOD (Oct 2009)

• EFS

– Banded ET (Feb 2010)

– Forecast extended to 16 days (Feb 2010)

– Extended number of members to 20 (April 2010)

• GFDN 3D POM in West Pacific (Jun 2009)

• WW3 Wave Height Assimilation (Sep 2009)

• NOGAPS T319L42 (May 10)


WxMap EFS Products

• Ensemble Mean and Spread (stdev) Areas

– N. Atlantic, S. Atlantic, W. Pacific, E. Pacific, Conus, Europe,

Gulf of Mexico, Southwest Asia, Global, N. Hemisphere

• Ensemble Mean and Spread (std dev) Variables

– MSL pressure

– 500 mb geopotential height

– 1000 mb geopotential height

– 6 hr accumulated precipitation

– 2 m air temperature

– 850 mb air temperature

– 10 m wind speed

– 250 mb wind speed

– 500 mb relative vorticity

– 1000 – 500 mb thickness

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Example Products

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Probability of 10 m winds > 20 kt

2010080400 tau 72

Probability of Sig Wave Height > 8 ft

2010080400 tau 72

Ensemble Mean and

Ensemble Spread

2010080400 tau 72


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Impossible

Very

Difficult

Moderately

Difficult

Problematic or Non-Issue M

ISS

ION

SU

CC

ES

SNavy Risk Management Matrix


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FNMOC and NUOPC

• FNMOC is committed to the success of NUOPC.

• Operational incorporation of the NOGAPS Ensemble into the North American Ensemble forecast System (NAEFS) at NCEP will constitute NUOPC IOC-1.

• The data exchange requirements required to achieve NUOPC IOC-1 are stressing the IT infrastructures at both Navy and NOAA, but progress is being made.

• We expect to leverage AFWA ensemble post-processing, in accordance with the NUOPC Unified Ensemble Operations (UEO) Committee Report.

• Most of the FNMOC NUOPC requirements identified in the UEO Report (personnel and computer hardware) remain unfunded.


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Global Multi-Model Ensemble

Experience from NAEFSBaseline Skill of Raw NCEP Ensemble

Statistical correction of Raw NCEP

ensemble improves skill

Addition of FNMOC (NOGAPS)

Ensemble to the Statistically

Corrected NCEP Ensemble

Increases skill dramatically (by

~ 1.25 days) beyond 6 days

Addition of CMC Ensemble to the

Statistically Corrected NCEP

Ensemble increases skill slightly

more than the addition of NOGAPS

(by ~1.75 days)

Combination of the NCEP,

FNMOC and CMC

Ensembles produces the most

skillful forecasts (~2.0 days better

than the statistically corrected

NCEP Ensemble) beyond 6 days

From NCEP’s presentation “Evaluation for Inclusion of FNMOC Ensemble into NAEFS”, 1 Oct 2009, unpublished.


NAEFS/NUOPC Data Transfer Status

• 72 height/variable combinations for 0 to 384 hours every

6 forecast hours

• Approximately 4.6 GB twice/day

• Transfer begins 4 hr 30 min after analysis time,

completes at FNMOC external server at 5 hr 30 min and

completes at NCEP operations at 6 hr 30 min

• GRIB2 format JPEG 2000 compression

• Packaged as all variables/levels for each

member/forecast tau (1300 files)

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Near-Term FNMOC Ensemble

Plans in Support of NUOPC

• 9 band Ensemble Transform perturbations (Sep/Oct 2010)

• Stochastic physics (stochastic kinetic energy backscatter)

(Sep/Oct 2010)

• Verification system (Nov/Dec 2010)

• T159L42 (mid 2011), may be delayed to also include Semi-

Lagrangian/Semi-Implicit formulation

• Bias correction (mid 2011)

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Results from Combined FNMOC and

NCEP Global WW3 Ensemble

• Based on comparison against

~325,000 Jason 1, Jason 2 and

Envisat altimeter wave height

observations.

• FNMOC WW3 Ensemble shows

more skill than FNMOC WW3

deterministic run for forecast lead

times greater than 72 hours.

• FNMOC WW3 Ensemble shows

more skill than NCEP WW3

Ensemble for all lead times.

• Combined FNMOC/NCEP WW3

Ensemble shows most skill of all for

forecast lead times greater than 72

hours.

• Combined FNMOC/NCEP WW3

Ensemble gains about 48 hours of

skill relative to the NCEP WW3

ensemble.


Ensembles - Ocean Circulation

• Currently supporting Navy ops

– 32 members of regional model with

perturbations of surface fluxes and

initial conditions

– Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter

(EnTKF) approach

– Primary application: adaptive

sampling, i.e. where to direct

measurement assets, such as

gliders

• Current Navy R&D

– Mesoscale & coastal focus

– Expansion of perturbations to

include boundary conditions and

bathymetry

• Future

– Coupled models (esp. regional /

mesoscale) are viable candidates

for ensemble methodologies


Phase

Item

Exploratory/Advanced Tech.Development

Demonstration & Validation

OperationalImplementation

Operations

Resource Sponsor (Funding Category)

ONR/NRL/Other

(6.2 S&T)

CNO N84 or Other Agent

(6.4 RDT&E)

CNMOC

(6.4 RDT&E;

O&M,N)

CNMOC

(O&M,N)

Objective

Initial Development Through Proof-Of-Concept

Requirements

review

Complete Development

Validation

Demonstration in Simulated Ops

OPEVAL– Beta Run

– OPTEST

Full Operational Integration

Operation & Maintenance

Life-Cycle Support

Technical Support & “Warranty” Service

DeliverablesJournal, Publication

or Technical Report

Software

Source Code

Model Transition Plan

Validation Test Report

Final DOD-STD Documentation

OPTEST Report

Upgrades and Fixes

ParticipantsONR PIs

NRL Developers

Non-Navy S&T

Administrative Model Oversight Panel

Tech Validation Panel

Chair, NRL Developer

Implementation PanelChair, FNMOC

FNMOCConfiguration

Control Board

Rapid Transition Process

TRL 2-3 4-6 7-9 10

Model Transition Process


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Systems are linked directly to ~332 TB of disk space and ~160 TB of tape archive space.

FNMOC HPC Systems

NAME TYPE CPUs MEMORY

(GB)

PEAK

(TFLOPS)

Disk

(TB)

OS

FS1 SGI ORIGIN 3900 256 256 0.7 30 TRIX

FS2 SGI ORIGIN 3900 256 256 0.7 30 TRIX

ATOS2 IBM 1350s/x440s/x345s 438 645 2.2 40 Linux

CAAPS IBM e1350s 148 272 0.7 10 Linux

A2 OPAL Dell Linux Cluster System 928 1800 10.0 65 Linux

A2 RUBY Dell Linux Cluster System 1168 1170 12.0 56 Linux

A2 TOPAZ Dell Linux Cluster System 280 1200 3.0 16 Linux

A2 EMERALD Dell Linux Cluster System 1224 3672 13.0 65 Linux

A2 ZIRCON Dell Linux Cluster System TBD TBD TBD 20 Linux

TOTAL 4,698 ~9300 ~ 45 ~ 330

FS = File Server / Cross Domain

ATOS = Applications, Transactions, and Observations Subsystem

CAAPS = Centralized Atmospheric Analysis and Prediction System

A2 = Combined AMS / ATOS System

UNCLAS

SECRET

UNCLAS and SECRET

TS/SCI


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Summary

• FNMOC is the U.S. Navy’s global NWP Center.

• FNMOC operates a closely integrated suite of global and regional meteorological and oceanographic models in support of Fleet Safety and Warfighting Effectiveness.

• NOGAPS, the FNMOC global NWP model, is competitive with other operational global models, and the only such model protected from cyberwarfare attack to DoD IA standards.

• The NOGAPS ensemble is currently being folded into NAEFS to constitute NUOPC IOC-1.

• A formal and effective process is used to manage the transition of new science and technology from the R&D community into operations at FNMOC.

• FNMOC is committed to vendor-neutral Linux Cluster architectures to meet its HPC infrastructure needs.


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an overview of fleet numerical meteorology and oceanography

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