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“Spotlight on Sorghum: New Markets – Expanded Uses – New Developments” January 21, 2016

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Page 1: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

“Spotlight on Sorghum:

New Markets – Expanded Uses – New Developments”

January 21, 2016

Page 2: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

What a difference

a year makes

Our new normal. I get more excited.

Page 3: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Observations

• we are fighting above our weight class

• we have to make our crop more valuable

• consumer demand is king

• sorghum is making noise. This is making some uncomfortable.

• Leadership Sorghum

• strategy

Page 4: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Update

4

$330,000 invested on sugarcane aphid

record research investment overall

China pace

Started in 2012 (3k MT)

8.3 million MT in 14/15

ethanol

Page 5: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Who We Are

What We Do

Page 6: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Checkoff Program

The Sorghum Checkoff is a producer funded

program intended to improve the sorghum

industry for the benefit of producers.

Page 7: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Strategic Model

Page 8: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

8

Building Productivity

• Over the Top Grass Control• Yield Developments & Enhancement• Seed Innovation• Informational Management

Approved by AMS

Page 9: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

9

Forage

CA ethanol

Conservation

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Page 11: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

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Page 12: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

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Page 13: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

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• International Markets• Consumer Markets• Livestock Nutrition• Specific Attribute Id and New Use Development• Bio-fuels Enhancements• Co-product Development• Supply Chain Facilitation

Building Demand

Approved by AMS

Page 14: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Attribute Based Marketing

14

•Reduced environmental impact•Meat and fat quality enhancing properties•Gluten free, ancient grain, fit the health conscious population•Low glycemic index•Comparable starch values for ethanol production•High protein levels to reduce high cost inputs•Antioxidants for enhanced health of animals•Palatability

Page 15: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

15

Sorghum Industry Basics

Page 16: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

16

8.74M Acres Planted in 2015

22.4% Increase from 2014

Page 17: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

17

14.55 Million MT Current Mkt Yr

32.4% Increase from 2014

Page 18: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

18

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2019

75

197

6

197

7

197

8

197

9

198

0

198

1

198

2

198

3

1984

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

2005

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

Mil

lio

ns

US Sorghum Planted Acres

Compiled from USDA Data Approved by AMS

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19

US Sorghum Yields (Bu)

25

35

45

55

65

75

8519

75

197

6

1977

197

8

197

9

198

0

198

1

198

2

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

2006

200

7

200

8

200

9

2010

201

1

201

2

201

3

2014

201

5

Compiled from USDA Data Approved by AMS

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20

US Sorghum Production (MMT)

Compiled from USDA Data Approved by AMS

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.019

75

197

6

197

7

197

8

197

9

198

0

1981

198

2

198

3

198

4

198

5

198

6

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

1996

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

2011

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

Page 21: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

21

US Corn/Sorghum Prices Paid

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

J-08

M-0

8

M-0

8

J-08

S-08

N-0

8

J-09

M-0

9

M-0

9

J-09

S-09

N-0

9

J-10

M-1

0

M-1

0

J-10

S-10

N-1

0

J-11

M-1

1

M-1

1

J-11

S-11

N-1

1

J-12

M-1

2

M-1

2

J-12

S-12

N-1

2

J-13

M-1

3

M-1

3

J-13

S-13

N-1

3

J-14

M-1

4

M-1

4

J-14

S-14

N-1

4

J-15

M-1

5

M-1

5

J-15

S-15

Corn

Sorghum

96%

102%

Compiled from USDA Data Approved by AMS

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Page 25: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

What’s Trending Now

25

Gluten-free

Ancient/Whole Grain

Organic

Craft foods

Traceability

Sustainability

Eco Friendly

Local

Fremented/Sprouted

Food Box

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Page 29: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

General Drivers

29

Label conscious consumer

Health conscious consumer

Low food costs

Availability of food dollars

Selection availability

Page 30: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Gluten-Free

30

$10.5 billion dollar industry

$23.9 billion dollars by 2020

Breads, cookies and snacks are largest

category

more than 1,600 new products / year

56 % of consumers say they prefer it

Page 31: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Why Gluten Free

31

Health

Celiac disease

Gluten sensitive

Wheat allergy

Autistic spectrum disorders

Page 32: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

HealthNutrition 411.com

32

Antioxidants

Like most grains, sorghum contains polyphenols, which are compounds found in

plants that fight pathogens and harmful ultraviolet light.

Research has shown that polyphenols play a role as antioxidants in the body.

Antioxidants are responsible for fighting free radicals in the body.

Diabetes defense

Phenols in sorghum help to inhibit glycation, which is a process that raises blood sugar.

Early glycation has been shown to be a contributor to diabetes complications.

Policosanols

The outer waxy coating of sorghum contains compounds called policosanols, which are made up of

strings of long-chain alcohols. Research studies have shown that varieties of policosanols have

lowered bad cholesterol, raised good cholesterol, and lowered the risk for plaque buildup in the arteries.

Sugar cane, beeswax, and yams also contain policosanols in their outer coatings.

3-Deoxyanthoxyanins (3-DXA)

3-DXA is a compound mostly found in the darker sorghum varieties. Some research studies have shown that this compound

(in extract form) is effective in slowing cancer cell growth, particularly various (GI) cancer cells. Research on 3-DXA is fairly limited as of publication, but a few studies have shown promising results

Page 33: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Sorghum Forms of Use

33

Whole grain

Pearled grain

Whole grain flour

Pearled grain flour

Popped

Colored varieties

Syrup

Crisps

Rolled

Extracts

Certified Organic

Page 34: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Who Is In This Game?

34

Private Companies

NuLife

Bobs Red Mill

Sage V Foods

SKS

Kansas Organic

Major Companies

ADM

Cargill

Bay State Milling

Scoular

Page 35: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Building Demand

Studies:

Swine study indicates current

sorghum has 98% value to corn.

Poultry study indicates no adverse

affects to growth rate or feed

conversion.

Page 36: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

What’s New

Crop Improvement

Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which

is a new world record non-irrigated sorghum yield.

Breeding technology

Double haploid

Page 37: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Sorghum

Pricing

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STILL EXPORT DEMAND

Page 44: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

CME Corn Price Volatility

Page 45: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

China trip Nov. 2015

FoodChina Conference

Mission

45

Page 46: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Guangdong

Province

46

• GDP similar to Los Angeles

• largest importer/exporter

• most billionaires in China

Page 47: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

U.S. Sorghum Exports

47

Page 48: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

“Sorghum Quality Report”

48

Page 49: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Is it any wonder…

49

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Page 51: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

China notes

51

Page 52: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Beijing

52

21 million people

(NYC = 8.4 m)

Page 53: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Growing appetite

53

Prefer corn/sorghum

Domestic stockpile – 1 yr

Factory of the world

Page 54: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

World Sorghum Trade

54

Page 55: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Balance Sheet

55

Page 56: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

USA YGS Export destinations

56

Page 57: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Sorghum’s

Future

Page 58: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Building Productivity

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Page 60: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Crop Improvement

60

Section 18s

Seed industry consolidation

Not being transgenic

Board strategy and investment

Double haploid

Seed Innovation challenges

Game has changed

Regulatory system

Chemicals, insecticides, seed treatments

Uncertainty

Geneflow

Pollinator health

Page 61: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Sugarcane Aphid

61

Section 18 submitted in TX

Dr. Bean as a resource

management and thresholds

investment on your behalf

$330,000 invested on sugarcane aphid

scouting

Page 62: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Renewables

62

DOE invests $62.5 million in calendar ’15 – 10 projects – more to come?

ethanol plants back in sorghum – normal 120 million bushels. Maybe 150/160

California ethanol plants now railing sorghum from Nebraska

RFS unclear. Lawsuit. EPA has made some improvement

will continue to have discussions with ethanol plants

Page 63: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated

Investment Portfolio

63

Latest RFP –

114 pre-proposals

37 full proposals

invested $6.198 million

DOE Funding

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What is Around the Corner

Continue to ramp up food segment.

New Uses

End-user Education

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Setting the BarYield per Acre

• Currently, the 15 year (2000/15) average yield is 61.95 bu/acre• By 2020 the average yield must increase to 75 bu/acre• By 2025 the average yield must increase to 100 bu/acre

Planted Acres• Currently, the 15 year (2000/15) average planted acres is 7,672,625• By 2020 the average planted acres must increase to 10 million acres• By 2025 the average planted acres must increase to 15 million acres

Demand• By 2020 build consistent, reliable demand of 650 million bushels and hold carry to <5%• By 2025 build consistent, reliable demand of 1.25 billion bushels and hold carry to <5%

Value• Currently, the 15 year (2000/15) average national value of sorghum to corn has been -4.6%• By 2025 build demand in competitive markets to reach a national value of <-2.0%

Approved by AMS

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Export Terminal

Page 68: “Spotlight on Sorghum: –New Developments”...Bay State Milling ... Higher yields. World record yield contest. at 239.85 bushels per acre, which is a new world record non-irrigated