argus fmb nitrogen · argus fmb nitrogen formerly fmb weekly nitrogen report market summary price...

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Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd Argus FMB Nitrogen Formerly FMB Weekly Nitrogen Report PRICE GUIDE MARKET SUMMARY Market firmer in the West, China wobbly The theme of divergent trends in the urea prices has carried over from last week, leaving the market showing no clear direction. While strong demand in Q4 should eventually pull up prices, it is slow going at present. Indian traders sold 415,000t of urea to MMTC in its 30 August tender, 270-300,000t of which will be supplied from from China and the balance from Iran. These sales and the 150,000t needed for September shipment to Pakistan have stabilised prices in China for the present. Suppliers there are refusing to sell prilled urea below $370/t fob. However, urea is already moving to Chinese ports for export in October and many people think that the quantity offered will push prills down into the $360s/t fob. Traders are also anticipating lower granular urea prices, selling Chinese material at the equivalent of $390/t fob, against current offers at $395/t fob. The main riser this week has been Egypt, where Mopco sold its first cargo for nine months and achieved $460/t fob. There are no markets paying the equivalent of $460/t yet, but Europe holds out the prospect of higher granular urea numbers assuming nitrate prices are raised for September. The US market has endured a slow week, in which urea An Argus Media company View the methodology used to assess nitrogen prices at www.argusmedia.com/methodology. Your feedback is always welcome at [email protected] Argus FMB Nitrogen ARGUS NITROGEN INDEX Issue 12-36 | Thursday 6 September 2012 FMB nitrogen fertilizer price guide 6-Sep 30-Aug Prilled urea – fob bulk Yuzhny 374-384 380-385 Baltic 375-380 365-380 Croatia/Romania 400-410 400-405 Arabian Gulf 390-395 390-395 Arabian Gulf (fob bagged) 400-405 400-405 China 370-373 370-373 Brazil (cfr) 407-410 405-415 Granular urea – fob bulk Arabian Gulf all netbacks 385-430 378-447 Arabian Gulf – US netback* 425-430 435-447 Arabian Gulf – non US netbacks 385-415 378-400 Iran 370-375 370-375 Egypt 445-460 440-443 Indonesia/Malaysia 405-421 405-410 Southeast Asia (cfr) 420-430 420-430 Venezuela/Trinidad 415-430 425-443 US Gulf (pst barge) 415-420 425-435 US Gulf (cfr metric) 452-457 463-474 * Basis 35-45,000t freight Ammonium sulphate – bulk fob Baltic (Caprolactam) 220-230 195-200 fob Blk Sea (Caprolactam) 220-225 210-220 fob Kherson (steel grade) 192-195 178-180 cfr S.E. Asia 235-240 225-230 Ammonium nitrate fob bulk Baltic 275-285 270-275 fob bulk Black Sea 268-272 260-265 UAN (32%) Nola (short ton) 308-310 310-315 Rouen 30% N fot (€ Euros) 255-257 258-260 fob Black Sea 285-290 290-296 Argus nitrogen index Argus nitrogen index 271.862 268.592 * Composite based on Argus FMB assessments for a basket of nitrogen-based fertilizers. The index is calculated such that 3 January 2009 = 100 for each component class of fertilizers. NITROGEN INDEX Up 3.3 ON FIRMER AMMONIA, AMSUl 50 100 150 200 250 300 Argus Nitrogen Index

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Page 1: Argus FMB Nitrogen · Argus FMB Nitrogen Formerly FMB Weekly Nitrogen Report market summary price guide Market firmer in the West, China wobbly The theme of divergent trends in the

Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd

Argus FMB NitrogenFormerly FMB Weekly Nitrogen Report

price guidemarket summary

Market firmer in the West, China wobblyThe theme of divergent trends in the urea prices has carried over from last week, leaving the market showing no clear direction. While strong demand in Q4 should eventually pull up prices, it is slow going at present.

Indian traders sold 415,000t of urea to MMTC in its 30 August tender, 270-300,000t of which will be supplied from from China and the balance from Iran. These sales and the 150,000t needed for September shipment to Pakistan have stabilised prices in China for the present. Suppliers there are refusing to sell prilled urea below $370/t fob.

However, urea is already moving to Chinese ports for export in October and many people think that the quantity offered will push prills down into the $360s/t fob. Traders are also anticipating lower granular urea prices, selling Chinese material at the equivalent of $390/t fob, against current offers at $395/t fob.

The main riser this week has been Egypt, where Mopco sold its first cargo for nine months and achieved $460/t fob. There are no markets paying the equivalent of $460/t yet, but Europe holds out the prospect of higher granular urea numbers assuming nitrate prices are raised for September.

The US market has endured a slow week, in which urea

An Argus Media company View the methodology used to assess nitrogen prices at www.argusmedia.com/methodology. Your feedback is always welcome at [email protected]

Argus FMB Nitrogen

ARGUS NITROGEN INDEX

Issue 12-36 | Thursday 6 September 2012

FMB nitrogen fertilizer price guide

6-sep 30-aug

Prilled urea – fob bulkYuzhny 374-384 380-385Baltic 375-380 365-380Croatia/Romania 400-410 400-405Arabian Gulf 390-395 390-395Arabian Gulf (fob bagged) 400-405 400-405China 370-373 370-373Brazil (cfr) 407-410 405-415Granular urea – fob bulkArabian Gulf all netbacks 385-430 378-447Arabian Gulf – US netback* 425-430 435-447Arabian Gulf – non US netbacks 385-415 378-400Iran 370-375 370-375Egypt 445-460 440-443Indonesia/Malaysia 405-421 405-410Southeast Asia (cfr) 420-430 420-430Venezuela/Trinidad 415-430 425-443US Gulf (pst barge) 415-420 425-435US Gulf (cfr metric) 452-457 463-474* Basis 35-45,000t freightAmmonium sulphate – bulkfob Baltic (Caprolactam) 220-230 195-200fob Blk Sea (Caprolactam) 220-225 210-220fob Kherson (steel grade) 192-195 178-180cfr S.E. Asia 235-240 225-230Ammonium nitratefob bulk Baltic 275-285 270-275fob bulk Black Sea 268-272 260-265UAN (32%)Nola (short ton) 308-310 310-315Rouen 30% N fot (€ Euros) 255-257 258-260fob Black Sea 285-290 290-296Argus nitrogen indexArgus nitrogen index 271.862 268.592* Composite based on Argus FMB assessments for a basket of nitrogen-based fertilizers. The index is calculated such that 3 January 2009 = 100 for each component class of fertilizers.

NITROGEN INDEX Up 3.3 ON FIRMER AMMONIA, AMSUl

50

100

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200

250

300Argus Nitrogen Index

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Argus FMB Nitrogen Issue 12-36 | Thursday 6 September 2012

prices have drifted lower. There is little demand from dealers and, consequently, little incentive for traders to buy more. Nola barges traded at $415-420/st fob for the month ahead, equivalent to $452-457/t cfr and slightly lower than the latest fob price in Egypt.

Yuzhny prices are little changed, with $384/t fob the most recent price paid. Netbacks from Brazil, the major western market for prilled urea in September, remain around $380/t fob Yuzhny/Baltic at best.

Highlights this week

▪ MMTC buys 415,000t for September loading

▪ Chinese prices stable

▪ OCI to build nitrogen plant in the US

▪ Egyptian price rises to $460/t fob

▪ Toepfer Fertilizer taken into ADM

▪ 60,000t Indonesian granular sold

▪ OCI sets up Iberian joint venture

▪ Low demand drags down UAN prices

▪ Brazilian market pulls up amsul prices

FSU, EAST EUROpE

YuzhnyUrea prices have gained little ground this week. Ameropa bought 25,000t at $374/t fob for very prompt loading for India at the start of the week. Helm bought 15,000t from DniproAzot at $384/t fob Yuzhny for September loading. The Scipione completed loading 15,700t of urea for Dreymoor/Cuba in late August. NF supplied the urea.

NF is largely committed for September. Dreymoor will load 35,000t for Brazil, Keytrade 25,000t, ADM a cargo for Brazil and NF will move 20,000t to Italy on its own account. AFT and DniproAzot have tonnage to sell for September and are quoting prices in the range $390-400/t fob against new inquiries.

TuapseEurochem has sold out of urea for September shipment from the Black Sea and the Baltic. In total it has sold 100-105,000t of granular urea and 80,000t of prilled urea, as follows.

Granular urea -100-105,000t

▪ Argentina/Uruguay 25,000t in combination with 10,000t of MOP from Klaipeda

▪ Brazil 5,000t in combination with 10,000t of AN and 10,000t of prilled urea from Klaipeda

▪ Canada 25-30 000t from Klaipeda .

▪ Canada 25,000t from Tuapse

▪ US Gulf 20,000t in combination with 10,000t prilled urea from Tuapse

prilled urea – 80,000t

▪ Brazil 10,000t at $410/t cfr with granular urea and AN from Klaipeda

▪ Germany 6,000t from Klaipeda .

▪ US 10,000t with granular urea from Tuapse

▪ Latin America 30,000t from Tuapse

▪ West Africa 25,000t from Tuapse

Yuzhny urea line up

date Vessel t Shipper/Destination

OpZ September

1 Falcon Trader 4,600 Koch/Brazil

4 CS Sacha 11,000 ADM/Brazil

5 Mandarin Grace 50,000 Ameropa/India

Total 65,600

TIS September

1 Falcon Trader 40,400 Koch/Brazil

Total 40,400

Total September 105,600

[email protected]/fertilizer

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Argus FMB Nitrogen Issue 12-36 | Thursday 6 September 2012

RomaniaInteragro has sold several parcels of urea for September shipment to Mediterranean markets, including Italy, at $405-410/t fob Constantza.

BAlTIC

Sales of prilled urea have taken place up to $380/t fob for September shipment to Europe. Netbacks from Brazil remain below $380/t fob. Availability is now limited for September, with only Uralchem having a full cargo left to sell.

phosagro - Trammo is in the market for 40,000t to load 24-26 September in Kotka for Brazil.

Uralchem - Uralchem has one cargo left to sell for September from a total of 85-90,000t for the month. Eurochem - Is reported to have sold 15,000t of urea to Dreyfus for October shipment to Cameroon.

Acron - Will close its urea plant for 10-14 days from mid September for maintenance. It is sold out for the month as a result.

Biofert - Has sold rail delivered tonnage to eastern Europe and has only about 5,000t of prilled urea left to sell for September. The granular urea plant at Salavat is scheduled to start production on 9 October.

EUROpE

TurkeyKastamonu has bought 6,000t of prilled urea from Trammo at about $400/t cfr with 180 days’ credit and Polisan 3-3,500t at a similar price, netting back to $372-373/t fob Yuzhny.

Spain/portugalOCI has set up a joint venture with Delso Fertilizers, one of the largest distributors in Spain to sell granular urea from warehouses in several ports in the Iberian peninsula.

Called Nitrogen Iberian Company SL (NIC), the j-v is intended to provide constant availability of granular urea in major fertilizer ports in Spain and Portugal. It is expected to import 150-200,000t/y of granular urea to Spain and Portugal from OCI’s plants in Algeria and Egypt.

The first vessels of granular urea, totalling 25-30,000t, will arrive in September at the ports of Pasajes, Sevilla, Tarragona, Sagunto and Setubal from Egypt. NIC will set a weekly price for urea in line with movements in international markets.

FranceGranular urea prices have moved up since last week, with sales in Atlantic ports above Euros 390/t fca and asking prices over Euros 400/t fca again, equivalent to $485-488/t cif.

Baltic Urea Export Sales – September

Supplier Buyer market ‘000t

Phosagro Keytrade Brazil ? 25

Phosagro Trammo 40

Agronova Trader Peru 6

SBU Azot Dreymoor Brazil 25

Trammo Europe 10

trader Europe 10

Uralchem Gavilon Brazil 27

Brazil 25

Eurochem trader Brazil 25

Grodno

Biofert Nitron Peru 12

Ameropa sold via Yuzhny

Total 205Available 35-40

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Argus FMB Nitrogen Issue 12-36 | Thursday 6 September 2012

One trader is planning to ship a 20-25,000t vessel from Egypt to minimise freight. Freight for that size of vessel from Damietta to La Pallice would be $22-23/t compared to around $35/t for the normal 6-8,000t vessel size.

ukKoch is offering granular urea at £320/t fca for delivery in Q4. This is equivalent to about £300/t or $475/t cif bulk.

Sales of granular urea for the 2012-13 season are estimated at around 100,000t so far, with demand for another 150-200,000t to come. The majority of the 100,000t sold so far has yet to be shipped to the country, with much of it still to be covered.

AFRICA

EgyptMopco held is first sales tender for nine months 5-6 September, offering 25,000t of granular urea for end-September loading. Trammo bought the cargo at $460/t fob, $15-18.50/t higher than sales by other Egyptian producers last week.

Mopco’s plant has restarted successfully and is ramping up to full production.

Late last week, Trammo bought 15,000t of granular urea from Alexfert at $445/t fob for September loading.

EthiopiaThe ministry of agriculture is expected to issue a tender for 100,000t of urea during September, for shipment in Q4, to be followed by another tender for 100,000t at a later date.

AlgeriaThere is no progress towards the start of production or exports.

MIDDlE EAST

QafcoQafco offered granular urea at $385/t fob in the MMTC tender but did not sell any. It is largely committed for September following the sales to Pakistan at $379/t fob last week. Dreymoor is loading the first 50,000t this week in Mesaieed on a vessel fixed at $13-14/t for Karachi.

SabicHas received and rejected bids from traders in the range $395-398/t fob for granular urea this week. The company has no urea to sell for September.

picHas granular urea to sell for end-September/October loading and has been indicating prices above $420/t fob.

OmanCHS has bought 40-45,000t of granular urea for September loading for the US Gulf. The price has not been revealed.

IranSwiss Singapore has bought three cargoes of urea from Iranian producers to cover its sales to MMTC of India. The cargoes will load in September, with prices reported in the low-$370s/t fob.

A trader will load 12-15,000t of bagged urea in Bandar Abbas in September for Beira, Mozambique, and a combination cargo of 10,000t of bagged urea in Bandar

Middle East Export Sales

Supplier Buyer/Market ‘000t Month

GranularSabic Thailand 50-60 Sept

Avail 240kt Australia 35-40 Sept

balance 0-15kt New Zealand 25 Sept

US 55 Sept

S Africa 30 Sept

Sudan 15 Sept

Bangladesh 15 Sept

Qafco Yara/US 100 Sept

Avail 400kt Australia 25 Sept

balance 55kt S Africa 25 Sept

Yara/Brazil 45 Sept

CHS/Pakistan 50 Sept

Indagro/Pakistan 100 Sept

pic Ameropa/Am 25 Sept

Avail 135kt Indagro/S Am 30 Sept

Balance 0kt Koch/Australia 30 Sept

Gavilon/US 45 Sept

Oman Toepfer/ 30 Sept

Avail 110kt Koch/ 45 Sept

balance 0kt CHS/US 40

Fertil Sri Lanka 24 August

Avail 70kt Trammo/US 25 August

balance 0kt Bangladesh 24 August

prilledSabic South Africa 15 Sept

Avail 50kt domestic 15 Sept

balance 3kt Bangladesh 15 Sept

Qafco India 20-25 Sept

Avail 75-80kt Bangladesh 24 Sept

balance 5-10kt Philippines 20 Sept

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Argus FMB Nitrogen Issue 12-36 | Thursday 6 September 2012

Abbas, completing with 8,000t of NPKs in Kandla, India, also for Beira.

asia

IndiaMMTC bought 415,000t of urea under its 30 August tender at $389.90-390.90/t cfr from the following suppliers:

▪ Agricom - 75,000t

▪ Continental - 140,000t

▪ Amber - 60,000t

▪ Transglobe - 50,000t

▪ Swiss Singapore - 90,000t

The purchases bring the total amount shipped/contracted under tenders this year to about 2.7m tonnes against an estimated requirement of 7-7.5m tonnes from the open market.

A new tender for urea for October shipment is expected in mid-September.

Urea consumption to rise in 2012-13Contrary to the overall trend in fertilizer demand, urea consumption is likely to rise in India in the current fiscal year. The artificially low price for urea in India is expected to lead an increase is demand of 3-4% while sales of other fertilizers are falling.

Industry observers are forecasting a drop of nearly 20% in overall fertilizer usage to 45m tonnes from a record 54.6m tonnes a year ago. This is due to record high domestic prices of potash and phosphate fertilizers and drought in key cash crop-growing areas.

The first year-on-year drop in consumption in five years is likely to hurt crop yields, although it will help the

FMB Spot Sales Selection – 6 September 2012

product Origin Supplier Buyer Destination ’000t $pt bulk Shipment

prilled urea

Ukraine DniproAzot Helm West Africa 15 384 fob September

Ukraine Trammo various Turkey 9 400 cfr 180d September

Ukraine Ameropa India 25 374 fob September

Baltic trader Brazil 25 407-408 cfr September

China Amber MMTC India 60 389.90 cfr September

Iran/China Swiss Sing MMTC India 90 389.90 cfr September

Iran/China Transglobe MMTC India 50 389.90 cfr September

China Agricom MMTC India 75 389.90 cfr September

China Continental MMTC India 140 389.90 cfr September

Granular Urea

Egypt Alexfert Trammo 15 445 fob September

Egypt Mopco Trammo 25 460 fob September

Indonesia Kaltim Brio USwc 15 415 fob September

Indonesia Kaltim Brio USwc 15 420.50 fob September

Indonesia Kaltim Quantum Australia 30 420.50 fob September

China Dongbu South Korea 3-5 405.50 cfr September

China Trammo Tepeyac Mexico wc 25 mid-420s cfr October

AN

Black Sea producer trader 5-10 270 fob September

Amsul

Baltic Nitron Bunge Brazil 10 260 cfr Sept/Oct

Baltic AFT Yara Brazil 10 255 cfr September

South Korea Capro Keytrade Brazil 25 220 fob September

UAN

Baltic Agronova Canada 18.5 340 cfr September

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government cap the fertilizer subsidy. So far this year, potash sales have dropped 40% and phosphate 30%.

pakistanAdditional urea imports are under consideration for the balance of 2012-13. Although the industry calculates that there is sufficient supply for the next few months, the government is likely to authorise more purchases through tenders. Some 100-150,000t of urea are in stock and another 300,000t are on the way under the recent tender.

The main requirement will be for November-January arrival, with the government needing to cover a near 200,000t/month shortfall in domestic production due to gas cuts.

Pakistan has signed a deal with Iran to export up to 1m tonnes of wheat at $300/t and take urea at the prevailing market price in return, but it is not clear when any shipments under this deal will start.

2012 Argus FMB Europe Fertilizer Conference and Exhibition3-5 October, Madrid, Spain Register online here www.eventsforce.net/FMBEurope

BangladeshBCIC closed tenders on 3 September for 100,000t of granular urea for shipment to Chittagong and 100,000t for Mongla. Offers are shown in the accompanying table. Prices are in $/t cfr bagged.

The lowest price, from Desh Trading at $438.64/t for Chittagong, is very aggressive. The package of costs from China to Bangladesh is estimated at $60-65/t, giving a netback to China of $373-378/t fob, compared to current prices of $395/t fob for granular urea.

BCIC has issued new tenders, closing on 10 October, for 2 x 100,000t of granular urea for shipment to Chittagong and Mongla.

ChinaUrea prices are holding for the time being, supported by strong demand for September loading, but there is some uncertainty about October.

Suppliers are refusing to sell prilled urea below $370/t fob for September, while granular offers are stable at $395/t fob. October offers are in the high-$360s/t fob for prills, but the market has yet to be tested fully as the major activity has all been for September.

Traders are buying urea for September shipment to India and Pakistan, with about 400,000t required to cover sales made in the TCP and MMTC tenders, plus smaller cargoes for Vietnam, Korea and the Philippines.

BCIC urea tenders 3 September - 2 x 100,000 tonnes

Supplier Origin 000t price

Chittagong

Desh Trading Chi/Indo/Rus/Ukr/ 25 438.64

Saudi/Qat/UAE

Wilson Chi/Indo/Uzbek/ 12.5 452.87

Egy/Iran

Hydro Carbon Chi/Malay/Turk/Indo 25 455.50

Olam China 25 456.73

Liven Chi/Indo/Egy/ 25 473.35

Iran/Malay

United Com Chi/Iran/Malay 25 474.50

Agricom Chi/Uzbek 25 476.80

Alba China 12.5 477.00

Aries China 25 480.00

Swiss Singapore Chi/Indo/Turk 25 484.50

EFT Egypt 25 515.00

Mongla

Desh Trading Chi/Indo/Rus/Ukr/ 25 443.14

Saudi/Qat/UAE

Olam China 25 454.41

Wilson Chi/Indo/Uzbek/ 12.5 454.67

Egy/Iran

Hydro Carbon Chi/Malay/Turk/Indo 25 460.50

Aries China 25 463.75

United Com Chi/Iran/Malay 25 474.50

Samsung China 25 477.33

Liven Chi/Indo/Egy/ 25 478.42

Iran/Malay

Agricom Chi/Uzbek 25 485.00

Swiss Singapore Chi/Indo/Turk 25 488.50

Helm China 25 492.49

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CNAMPGC is reported to be backing Amber and Continental for their sales to MMTC. Continental has fixed a vessel to load 71,000t of urea in Bayuquan (46,000t) and Yantai (25,000t) 15-19 September for Krishnapatnam, east coast India. Amber will load 60,000t of urea in Yantai 10-15 September for India.

Keytrade and Trammo have been bidding for urea for Pakistan, seeking prices in the mid-$360s/t fob against offers at $370 and above.

Large quantities of urea are en route from factories to the ports, which will arrive in September for October loading. Chinese suppliers say the cost price for this urea is equivalent to $365-368/t fob for prills and unwilling to offer cheaper for the time being.

South KoreaDongbu closed a tender on 3 September for 3-5,000t of granular urea. It bought the cargo from a trader at $405.50/t cfr.

ThailandContract cargoes of granular urea are selling in the $420s/t cfr, unchanged over August. Traders are trying to sell Chinese granular urea but are finding most buyers are covered.

VietnamTraders have sold five cargoes of 5-6,000t of Chinese prilled urea for September shipment at prices of $400-403/t cfr.

IndonesiaPusri Holding held a sales tender on 31 August for 2 x 15,000t of granular urea for September shipment from Bontang, with the option to sell another 30,000t.

Brio Agrichem bought the first 15,000t at $415/t fob and Quantum the second 15,000t at $420.25/t fob. Brio then bought another 15,000t at $420.25/t fob and Quantum the final 15,000t at the same level.

Brio has sold the urea for shipment to the US west coast. Quantum will load 30,000t for Australia.

Pusri Holding closed a sales tender on 6 September for prilled urea, offering 20,000t of Pusri prills for shipment from Palembang and 10,000t of PIM low-biuret urea for shipment from Lhokseumawe.

It set the reserve price for Pusri prills at an realistically high $400/t fob. Bids were in the $350s/t fob and the tender was scrapped. Due to the low level of bids, Pusri did not proceed with the tender for PIM urea.

AustraliaThere has been a run on urea in the eastern states for September delivery and port stocks are depleted. A combination of timely rain and high wheat prices have led to the strong demand.

americas

us Granular urea barges have traded in the range $415-420/st fob Nola this week, for loading in the next 30 days. Downward pressure on prices was felt more strongly mid-week and Thursday with $415/st fob Nola trading on Thursday.

Buyers are not active and the trend is more of a drift down than a correction. TFI’s conference in Chicago in the coming week should clarify whether there is serious downtrend.

argusmedia.com

For more information please contact our conference department at +7 495 933 75 71 or by email: [email protected]

Argus FMB FSU Regional Fertilizer Conference and Exhibition 201228–30 November, 2012, Bristol Hotel, Odessa, Ukraine

Book before 8 September and save €400

Registration Program request

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The impact of Hurricane Isaac is still being felt. Importers are finding barges in short supply at Nola for incoming vessels due to both to the dislocation caused by the Hurricane and the fact that corn is moving north up the Mississippi, taking up barges that would normally return empty to Nola. A good crop in the southern US means that ethanol producers are moving corn north to compensate for the poor crop in the Cornbelt.

Prices for urea in Q4 have also eased this week. Chinese product has been offered at $410/st fob Nola, with buyers expecting the price to decrease further.

There are few changes to the vessel line up. Approximately 30,000t of Indonesian granular have been booked for the west coast and CHS has confirmed an Omani cargo for September loading. There could also be vessels from Oman for Koch and ADM.

400

450

500

550

600

650

700US Gulf Egypt

The quantity of granular urea booked for arrival up to the end of October is estimated to be around 350,000t higher than the same time last year, with potentially more cargoes to be confirmed.

MexicoTepeyac invited offers on 5 September for 20-25,000t of granular urea for October shipment to Topolobampo and bought a Chinese cargo from Trammo at $424-425/t cfr. The buying pool has been meeting this week to plan its next purchase of urea and is expected to tender shortly for 25,000t of granular urea for October shipment to the west coast.

Uruguay/ArgentinaDemand for urea in Argentina is largely covered for 2012 and Profertil has resumed its export programme.

It recently sold 10,000t of granular urea to Isusa for October shipment from Bahia Blanca to Montevideo and Nueva Palmyra, Uruguay. The urea is priced under a formula linked to Yuzhny prills. It is also planning a 20-25,000t cargo for Brazil.

Nitron is shipping 25-30,000t of Eurochem granular urea from Klaipeda in September, part of this cargo has been sold to Isusa and Maccio. Urea from the vessel has been offered at $455-460/t cfr in Argentina.

Indagro is loading 30,000t of granular urea in Kuwait this week, partly sold in Uruguay.

Keytrade is shipping 30,000t of Chinese granular urea to Argentina, which was sold at prices in the range $455-470/t cfr earlier.

US gran urea imports from offshore

Month Origin 000t Comments

July arrivals – all sources 105August 490September 685Gavilon Egypt 25CHS Oman 45Sabic S Arabia 60Yara Qatar 100CHS Kuwait 45Gavilon Bahrain 45Gavilon Kuwait 30Eurochem Russia 50Trammo Egypt 25Toepfer Oman 45CHS Indonesia 30Trammo China 25 east coast Trammo UAE 25PCS Trinidad 25Koch Oman 45Dreymoor China 40 west coastMarubeni China 25October 415Yara Qatar 100Sabic S Arabia 55Ameropa Kuwait 25PCS Trinidad 50Trammo China 50Koch Egypt 25Gavilon Bahrain 45Ameropa Indonesia 30 west coastCHS Oman 40

Total Jul-Oct 2011-12 1,695Total Jul-Oct 2010-11 1,350 change +345

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Brazil Sales of prilled urea took place late last week around $410/t cfr and prices have not really altered since then despite higher offers from traders.

Trammo is reported to have sold to Fertipar at just under $410/t cfr this week. Offers at $415-420/t cfr have yet to find buyers. Several cargoes have been sold for September loading for Brazil and buyers are receiving offers from them, hopeful of avoiding any increase in price.

Trammo will load 40,000t in Kotka in late September. ADM will load 25,000t in Yuzhny in September and is in the market for another 25,000t in combination with 20,000t of NPKs in Yuzhny in early October. Koch has 45-50,000t loading now in Yuzhny. Indagro has 35,000t to load in September. Eurochem will load a 10,000t part cargo in September.

Profertil will load a granular urea cargo for southern Brazil in October, to be priced under a formula based on Yuzhny prills. Yara has been selling Qatari product under a similar formula. These sales are making it difficult for other suppliers, working from a fixed fob number for granular, to compete.

Based on the Yuzhny mid-point for this week, plus freight and a premium for granular, cfr levels could drop as low as $430/t cfr.

AMMONIUM NITRATES/SUlpHATE

Ammonium sulphate prices have moved up sharply over the past 2-3 weeks. Sales have taken place in Brazil at $255-260/t cfr for standard amsul. Supply from the FSU is very tight and producers have nothing to sell for September or early October loading. Bids have risen to $230/t fob Baltic/Black Sea. Reduced caprolactam production is the main reason and the lower amsul supply is making itself felt in Brazil, where buyers are finding far fewer offers than normal.

However, Brazil is the only market paying such prices and the premium over urea is becoming very high.

Black Sea/BalticProducers have no capro grade amsul to sell until late October. KuAz is offering a cargo for end-October at $230/t fob. Grodno Azot held a sales tender on 5 September for 25,000t of amsul for November shipment. Bids are reported at $230/t fob. Traders are reluctant to buy so far forward at prices that only work in one market - Brazil.

Prices for raw material grade have moved up to $192-195/t fob Kherson. There are several parcels being auctioned this

week by Russian suppliers and bids are expected to move up to $195-200/t fob.

Prices for AN have moved up to $270/t fob for end-September and October. A trader has bought 5-10,000t of Ukrainian AN at that level.

Eurochem has committed about 135,000t of AN it has available for September shipment. Deliveries to Russia and Ukraine account for nearly 80% of the total.

Eurochem AN sales September – 135,000t

▪ Russia 90,000t .

▪ Ukraine – 15,000t.

▪ Brazil 10,000t from Riga

▪ Central America 5,000t part cargo from Riga

▪ Brazil 15,000t from Novorossisk

Northwest EuropeYara has still to announce prices for September deliveries of AN/CAN. OCI has maintained its list CAN price at Euros 260/t cif inland for September, but is aiming to move actual selling prices to that level from around Euros 255/t cif in August, an effective Euros 5/t increase.

SpainFertiberia has raised its CAN list price by Euros 5/t for September to Euros 263/t ex-warehouse. Buyers say product is still available in the market at the old price of Euros 258/t.

BrazilAFT has sold a parcel of Grodno amsul to Yara at $255/t cfr for October. Nitron has sold 10,000t of amsul to Bunge at $260/t cfr. Offers have risen to $260-265/t cfr for standard grade amsul for October/November loading.

At $260/t cfr, amsul is equivalent to urea at $475/t cfr, allowing a 20% premium for amsul because of the sulphur content. Prilled urea is trading around $410/t cfr in Brazil at present. Tight supply will maintain prices for amsul for the time being, but Brazil is paying the highest prices in the world and starting to attract any spot cargoes available.

Far EastCapro Corp is reported to have sold 25,000t of amsul to a trader at $220/t fob for September shipment to Brazil. Freight is estimated in the low-$40s/t.

Traders have bought 5-6,000t parcels of Chinese capro grade amsul at $205-206/t fob for September shipment.

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Argus FMB Nitrogen Issue 12-36 | Thursday 6 September 2012

2013 Argus FMB Asia Fertilizer Conference and Exhibition

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Save the date! More details on the conference will be released shortly.

UAN SOlUTIONS

usUAN 32 prices are weakening slightly in a slow market. Offers on the east coast are down to $325-330/t cfr for October, but there are few buyers.

Prices are hard to pinpoint in the US Gulf. The feeling is that prices are below $310/st fob Nola, but no one can say exactly how far because of a lack of business.

Buyers are showing some interest in UAN for Q1 2013, but scent interest in anything for loading before then. Some business has been done for Q1 at prices in reflecting $315-320/st fob Nola.

CanadaEurochem is in the freight market for a vessel to load 12-13,000t of UAN for 10-12 September shipment to eastern Canada including the Great Lakes. The price is reported to be in the $340s/t cfr. Ameropa is loading 37,000t of UAN in Klaipeda for Canada. Agronova has sold 18-19,000t for September shipment to eastern Canada from Sillamae.

MexicoJCO is reported to have bought 25,000t of UAN 32 at $345-350/t cfr Guaymas for October loading. Freight from the Black Sea is estimated around $60/t.

FranceThe market for UAN 30 is moribund. Prices have drifted down to $255-256/t fca Rouen for October delivery, but little business is taking place for two reasons: firstly, the softness in the international market has made buyers pause; and secondly, Yara and GPN have yet to announce September prices for AN.

OCI is shipping the 15,000t of Egyptian UAN it bought last week to Rouen, where it has inherited tank space booked by Gavilon France. Trammo is loading 18,000t in Egypt for Ghent.

EgyptAbu Qir will hold a sales tender on 11 September for 25,000t of UAN 32 for 18-21 September loading.

Black SeaEurochem will load 80-85,000t of UAN 32 in September split as follows:USec/Canada/Europe – 10,000t loading with 20-25,000t of Lithuanian UAN from KlaipedaCanada 15,000t from KlaipedaCanada 30-35,000t from NovorossiskArgentina 25,000t from Novorossisk

The 30,000t it sold last week to CSBP/IPL for Australia and 25,000t for JCO in Mexico will load in October. An end-September UAN cargo is under discussion from Romania at around $290/t fob.

BalticAgronova has sold 18,500t of UAN 32 for second half September shipment to Canada at a price around $340/t cfr. It has fixed the m/t Alioth to load in Sillamae 20-25 September for the east coast and Hamilton. Freight is around $50/t basis 1-2.

Nitron loaded the m/t Med Atlantic with 24,000t of UAN 32 in Sillamae last week for two ports Argentina, fixed in the high-$40s/t basis 1-2.

AustraliaFurther to our report last week, Eurochem sold 30,000t of UAN 32 to CSBP and Incitec Pivot at a price in the $350s/t cfr. It will ship around 25,000t to Kwinana for early November arrival and the balance to Adelaide and Geelong for IPL.

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Argus FMB Nitrogen Issue 12-36 | Thursday 6 September 2012

CSBP will need its next cargo for December/early-January arrival in Kwinana.

NEWS

OCI to build nitrogen complex in USOrascom Construction Industries (OCI) announced late yesterday that it will build a $1.4bn nitrogen fertilizer complex at Wever, Iowa, in the US.

It has set up a wholly owned subsidiary, Iowa Fertilizer Company (IFCo), to build and operate the plants on a greenfield site in southeast Iowa to supply customers in the U.S. corn belt.

OCI has selected Kellogg Brown & Root LLC (KBR), Maire Tecnimont Stamicarbon (Tecnimont), and ThyssenKrupp Uhde (Uhde) to supply the process technologies for the plants, which will produce 1.5-2m tonnes/year of ammonia, urea and UAN, as well as diesel exhaust fluid (DEF)

Construction work on the complex is scheduled to begin later this year, for completion in mid-2015.

IFCo’s new plant will be the first world scale natural gas-based fertilizer plant built in the United States in nearly 25 years.Iowa is the top corn producing state in the United States and has the highest use of nitrogen-based fertilizer in the nation.

The total investment cost is estimated to be $1.4bn and will be funded with a combination of equity and a tax-exempt bond issue. The Iowa Finance Authority has authorized IFCo to access bonding capacity under its private activity tax-exempt Midwestern Disaster Area bond programme. In addition, the Iowa Economic Development Authority board unanimously approved a comprehensive state financial incentive package expected to provide state tax relief in the order of $100m. The Iowa Department of Transportation board will also consider financial assistance for project-related public infrastructure improvements.

Iowa State Governor Terry Branstad commented: “I am pleased to welcome OCI to Iowa. Their project is the largest investment ever made in our state. The Iowa Fertilizer Company will bring high-paying permanent jobs to Lee County and will create approximately 2,500 construction jobs over the next three years. We believe this major capital investment will help invigorate economic development in an area of the state which has previously experienced significant challenges. We look forward to working closely with OCI and its management to ensure the successful completion of their project.”

OCI Chief Executive Officer, Nassef Sawiris, said: “OCI is pleased to have selected the state of Iowa for its North American expansion and is looking forward to helping bring permanent jobs and significant economic activity to Lee County and the state. Iowa Fertilizer Company is well-positioned to supply nitrogen-based fertilizer products to farmers in the Cornbelt and help reduce their substantial reliance on annual imports of fertilizer into the country. We intend to expand our presence in the United States and most recently agreed to acquire the Weitz Company, an Iowa-based construction company, which will play a major role in the construction of our new fertilizer plant.

ADM, Toepfer to integrate fertilizer businessesArcher Daniels Midland Company has announced changes today to streamline its global fertilizer business.With effect from 1 October, ADM and its affiliate Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH (ACTI) will integrate their fertilizer origination operations, which will continue under ADM’s name. The operations will be based at Rolle, Switzerland.

Rafael Karczewski, Maike Grensemann and Jan Philip Fiedler will join ADM̀ s fertilizer desk in Rolle, Switzerland, from ACTI in Hamburg..

“Integrating ADM and Toepfer’s fertilizer operations will help us improve productivity and allow us to provide more robust services to our customers,” said Benton Kirk, ADM’s global head of fertilizer.

ACTI will continue with its current distribution businesses in Ireland, England, Spain, Bulgaria, Romania, and Australia, and ACTI will also handle destination business on behalf of ADM in India and Pakistan via the government tender business. All existing off-take, frame, and warehousing agreements and obligations with ACTI and ADM will be honoured.

OCI sets up Iberian joint-ventureOCI Nitrogen and Delso Fertilizers Group (DF Grupo) have entered into a joint venture agreement for the import of OCI Nitrogen fertilizers into the Iberian Peninsula.

The joint venture company is called Nitrogen Iberian Company SL (NIC) and will have its head office in Madrid.

NIC aims to provide a constant availability of granular urea and other nitrogen fertilizer products in all major fertilizer ports in Spain and Portugal. It is expected to import 150-200,000t/y of granular urea to Spain and Portugal from OCI’s plants in Algeria and Egypt.

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Argus FMB Nitrogen Issue 12-36 | Thursday 6 September 2012

Registered officeArgus House, 175 St John St, London, EC1V 4LW Tel: +44 20 7780 4200 Fax: +44 870 868 4338 email: [email protected]

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The first vessels of granular urea, totalling 25-30,000t, will arrive in September at the ports of Pasajes, Sevilla, Tarragona, Sagunto and Setubal from Egypt.

As an import company, NIC will supply not only DF Grupo companies but also other distributors in the Iberian market. Renso Zwiers, CEO OCI Nitrogen said: “With this step as OCI Nitrogen we show our commitment to the Iberian Peninsula for the supply of granular urea and other nitrogen fertilizer products. This step fits in OCI’s strategy to work in partnership with local distributors to build a global distribution network for nitrogen fertilizers.”

Carlos Delso, CEO DF Grupo added: “Working directly with a producer, NIC is like a virtual domestic factory offering the Iberian market year round security of supply at competitive prices in all major fertilizer ports.”

The daily management of NIC will be in the hands of Juan Jose Delso in close cooperation with Cor Boonen from OCI Nitrogen.

FERTIlIZER DERIVATIVES

FIS Cash Settled swaps – 6 September 2012

Month Bid Offer Mid Basis

Urea (prill) fob Yuzhny (mt)

Sep 386 393 390 5 mt

Oct 385 390 387 5 mt

Nov 383 387 385 5 mt

Urea (gran) fob barge NOlA (s ton)

Sep 420 430 425 3 st

Oct 415 420 418 1.5 st

Nov 415 420 418 1.5 st

Urea (gran) fob Egypt (mt)

Sep 448 455 452 5 mt

Oct 445 450 448 5 mt

Nov 440 450 445 5 mt

For further swaps information contact:

Ron Foxon & Alexey Paliy,

FIS Ltd - Office : +44 207 090 1122 or

Cell: +44 7738726557 [email protected] looking for Trader for African region

MEA Kenya, who have extensive fertiliser and related investments in the region, is seeking to hire a trader to cover Africa and be based initially in Nairobi – the ideal candidate would have some knowledge of French and have been involved in trading for some years.

Interested applicants should contact [email protected]