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Asia-Pacific Credit Markets Update – 2Q 2020

Xu Han, Associate Director – Credit Markets [email protected]

Vince Conti, Associate Director – Credit Markets [email protected]

Nivritti Mishra, Lead Analyst –[email protected]

Lyndon Fernandes, Analyst – [email protected]

Sudeep Kesh, Head of Credit Markets [email protected]

http://spglobal.com

http://spglobal.com

http://spglobal.com

http://spglobal.com

http://spglobal.com



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Financing ConditionsHighlights



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APAC Financing | Risk Aversion Persists

3

Note: Data as of June 17, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research, Bloomberg-Barclays Indices.

• Tightened spreads. After widening in late-March to the highest since the Global Financial Crisis, credit spreads are now tighter and more stable. Investment-grade spreads in APAC are roughly on par with the U.S. market, likely helped at least partially by a confidence boost initiated by a slew of actions by the major central banks globally. Spreads on speculative-grade APAC bonds have also tightened significantly, by more than 400 basis points (bps) since the high in March, though investors continue to demand a premium for riskier debt compared with the beginning of 2020.

• Risk-aversion persists, especially for speculative-grade issuers. Despite significantly easing spreads, levels remain close to double those seen at the start of the year. Moreover, these are still nearly 200 bps above the corresponding overall U.S. spec-grade spreads, from close to parity at the start of 2020.

227

319

781

1,078

141 121

448 462

366

278

1,058

1,275

198 204

646

791

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

US IG APAC IG US HY APAC HY

U.S. and APAC OAS (for USD-denominated bonds, in bps)

APAC 2010-19 High (Sep 30, 2011) Beg. 2020 COVID-19 Worst 17-Jun-20



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U.S. Credit Composite Spreads Trends

(bps)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1/1/20

16

3/1/20

16

5/1/20

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7/1/20

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9/1/20

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11/1/

2016

1/1/20

17

3/1/20

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5/1/20

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7/1/20

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2017

1/1/20

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3/1/20

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2018

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2019

1/1/20

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3/1/20

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5/1/20

20

U.S. Spreads By Rating Category

AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC

* Option-adjusted spreads computed on a pool of over 20,000 U.S.-domiciled bonds with par values of over $100M that are rated by S&P Global Ratings. Data as of June 12, 2020. Source: S&P Ratings Research; Thomson Reuters.



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Equity Pricing

66.043380.16

2000

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3200

3400

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6/7/2019 7/7/2019 8/7/2019 9/7/2019 10/7/2019 11/7/2019 12/7/2019 1/7/2020 2/7/2020 3/7/2020 4/7/2020 5/7/2020 6/7/2020

Index Movement In Last One Year Has Reached Peak In March 2020VIXCLS SP500

Data as of June 12, 2020. Source: S&P Ratings Research; FRED.

Pre-COVID Post-COVID

• When the COVID-19 pandemic was declared around the end of January, markets saw markedly higher volatility, indicating much weaker investor confidence. Subsequently, various central bank actions, such as asset purchase programs, increased liquidity and helped investor confidence recover, leading to reduction in VIX.



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APAC Markets | Corporate Issuance

6

May, 792.74 Jun, 885.02

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Asia-Pacific Cumulative Corporate (Financial and NonFinancial) New Bond Issuance

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020(Bil. USD)

-

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Asia-Pacific Corporate (Financial and NonFinancial) New Bond Issuance

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(Bil. USD)

Data as of June 16, 2020. Source: S&P Ratings Research; Thomson Reuters.

• Total APAC bond issuance so far in 2020 has already surpassed the level for the same period last year.

• However, most of this was local bond issuance by Chinese firms. This reflects the extraordinary support by the government, not only through easier financial conditions but also fiscal support through special project bonds.

• Most of these special project bonds were issued in March and April, at the height of the COVID-19 disruptions.



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APAC Corporate Issuance| By Market

7

Data as of June 16, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research; Thomson Reuters.

(Bil. USD)

1,066

302

858

403

946

385

1,274

388

$697.4

188

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

Domestic Foreign

Asia-Pacific New Issuance By Market

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

• In contrast to local bond issuance, foreign bond issuance by APAC firms has only recently recovered, bringing it back to about the same pace as 2019.

• Very low levels of activity in April offset the strong start to the year, after which issuance activity recovered to the 2018-2019 average pace.

• Geographically, the recovery has been uneven. China continues to account for most offshore borrowing in the region, followed by the larger developed markets. There has been much thinner activity from Emerging Asian entities.



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Ratings Trends and OutlooksSummary



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APAC Upgrade and Downgrade Potential | By Sector

9

• Media & entertainment and automotive sectors show the most downside risk.

• Upgrade potential led by healthcare.



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Downgrade Potential | Regional Negative Bias

10

– Tiger Economies And Other Developed Asia: Downgrade potential remains elevated due to the pandemic’s damping of economic activities.

– Rest of APAC: Downgrade potential remained high as of mid-June, above both five- and 10-year averages. China, on the other hand has seen improvements.

Data as of June 16, 2020 and exclude sovereign. Source : S&P Global Ratings Research. Tiger Economies includes Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Other developed includes Australia, New Zealand, and Japan.

17%

12%

20%

14%

10%

18%

26%

19%

25%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Other Developed Tiger Economies APAC excluding OD and TigerEconomies

APAC Downgrade Potential Differentiated Across Region

10-Year Average 5-Year Average 16-Jun-20



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Regional Bias Outlooks| By Country (Or SAR)

11

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Australia (124)Japan (96)

New Zealand (26)

Hong Kong (18)Singapore (27)

Taiwan (36)

China (119)India (23)

Indonesia (14)Malaysia (9)Pakistan (1)

Papua New Guinea (1)Philippines (4)

Sri Lanka (1)Thailand (9)Vietnam (3)

All (511)

Neg/Negative Stable Pos/Positive

SAR – Special Administrative Region. Data as of June 12, 2020. Note: Numbers in parentheses refer to the number of entities included in the calculation; Excludes developing outlook; Includes Financial & Non-Financial Companies. Parents only. Source: S&P Ratings Research.

(Total Issuer Counts)

• Asia-Pacific negative bias is led by Indonesia and India, while positive bias is led by Hong Kong, Singapore and Thailand (despite small sample size)



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APAC Ratings Distribution | By Sector

12

Data as of June 17, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

AutomotiveCapital Goods

Chemicals, Packaging & Environmental ServicesConsumer Products

DiversifiedFinancials (ex. Insurance)

Forest Products & Building MaterialsHealth Care

High TechnologyHomebuilders/Real Estate Co.

InsuranceMedia & EntertainmentMetals, Mining & Steel

Oil & GasRetail/Restaurants

TelecommunicationsTransportation

Utility

APAC Corporates (Financial and NonFinancial) Ratings Distribution

AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC & Below

• About 26% of nonfinancial corporates are rated speculative-grade, compared with 9% of financial services issuers. Transportation has the highest share of speculative-grade, at 7 out of 11 rated companies, followed by Healthcare with 3 out 5.

(Number Of Issuers)



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APAC NonFin Ratings Distribution and Outlooks

13

Data as of June 17, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings

Riskiest issuers

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AAAAA+ AA

AA- A+ A A-BBB+

BBBBBB-

BB+ BBBB- B+ B B-

CCC+

Non-financial Corp - Ratings Dist. and Outlooks

Negative Outlook/CW Neg Stable Positive Outlook/CW Pos

0 20 40 60 80 100

AutomotiveCapital Goods

Chemicals, Packaging &…Consumer Products

DiversifiedFinancials (ex. Insurance)

Forest Products & Building MaterialsHealth Care

High TechnologyHomebuilders/Real Estate Co.

InsuranceMedia & EntertainmentMetals, Mining & Steel

Oil & GasRetail/Restaurants

TelecommunicationsTransportation

Utility

Non-financial Corporates Ratings Outlooks Across Rating Category

CW Neg Negative Outlook Stable Positive Outlook/CW Pos

Roughly 44% of the APAC non-financial corporate spec-grade universe is vulnerable to credit deterioration.

Within non-financial corporates, the majority of those poised for deterioration are in real estate (18) ,utilities (16), autos (13) and media/entertainment (incl. lodging/leisure); besides autos with 6, each of the other three sectors has 3 companies on CreditWatch negative, signaling a 50% likelihood of downgrade.

Among the riskiest issuers (B- and below), seven are on Negative Outlook and two have a CreditWatch Placement with Negative Implications.



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APAC Fallen Angels / Potential Fallen Angels

14

Data as of May 31, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings

No fallen angels yet in 2020; but the 15 potential fallen angels is the most since the taper tantrum, affecting roughly half the amount of debt during that period.

Nine of the 15 are in the financial institutions, real estate, or utilities sectors. In terms of affected debt, financial institutions are at the top, followed by a single telco in India.

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Automoti

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High Te

chno

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Homeb

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Media

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Telec

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Utilitie

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PFA Sector-wise Through May 31, 2020

Issuer Debt (in Million $)

Debt (in Million $)

Count Of issuers

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Historical PFA And Its Outstanding Debt

PFA Issuer Debt (in Million $)

Debt (in Million $) Count Of

issuers



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Ratings Actions and Defaults Summary



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Global Rating Actions

16

Data as of June 12, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

With a lower ratings profile at the start of the current crisis, downgrade tallies are rapidly approaching levels seen during the Great Financial Crisis. Despite relatively fewer ratings actions compared to the rest of the world, APAC has seen triple the number of actions year-on-year, predominantly downgrades.

Downgrades account for the vast majority of rating actions across geographies, with downgrade ratios exceeding other periods of stress.

95 60 20 56

315

13453

265

77

51

13

74

839

508

227

739

0

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600

800

1000

1200

1400

2009 2019 2019 YTD 2020 YTD

Asia/Pacific EMEA Latin America North America

83%

67%

63%

95%

88%

58%

52%

95%

87%

85%

72%

97%

82%

72%

71%

94%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2009

2019

2019 YTD

2020 YTD

North America Latin America EMEA Asia/Pacific



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APAC Ratings Summary| Sovereign In June

17

Note: Foreign currency ratings. NM indicates not meaningful. Red means speculative-grade rating, and blue means investment-grade rating. Data as of June 16, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research. S&P Capital IQ. CDS Spread is as of June 16, 2020.

Country Rating Outlook 5 Year CDS Spread Median Rating Financials (OLCW) Median Rating Non - Financials(OLCW)

Australia AAA Negative 22 A- BBB

Bangladesh BB- Stable NM B+

China A+ Stable 48 A BBB

Cook Islands B+ Positive NM

Fiji BB- Stable NM

Hong Kong AA+ Stable 45 A A

India BBB- Stable 111 BBB-

Indonesia BBB Negative 123 B+

Japan A+ Stable 19 A+ A-

Korea AA Stable NM A BBB+

Malaysia A- Stable 69 BBB+

Mongolia B Stable 564

New Zealand AA Positive 23 A+ BBB

Pakistan B- Stable 585 B-

Papua New Guinea B- Stable NM B-

Philippines BBB+ Stable 59 BBB

Singapore AAA Stable NM A- BBB+

Sri Lanka B- Stable 1075 B-

Taiwan AA- Stable NM A- BBB+

Thailand BBB+ Stable 44 A- BBB+

Vietnam BB Stable 171 BB-



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APAC | COVID-19 / Oil-Related Rating Actions

18

Note: Data includes Sovereign. Data from Feb. 3, 2020 to June 15, 2020. Greater China includes mainland China, Taiwan, Macao and Hong Kong. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

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Feb March April May June

COVID-19/Oil Price Rating Actions By Country

Downgrade Downgrade + CW Change OL Change CreditWatch Negative

(Number Of Issuers)



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APAC | COVID-19 / Oil-Related Rating Actions

19

Note: Data includes Sovereign. Data from Feb. 3, 2020 to June 15, 2020. Greater China includes mainland China, Taiwan, Macao and Hong Kong. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

Sector Breakdown Of Corporate And Sovereign Debt Amount Impacted By COVID-19 & Oil Price-Related Actions

0.20.61.53.13.37.411.2

11.811.9

13.717.919.920.924.024.6

25.738.5

48.4144.8

199.2

587.6

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Consumer products (3)Technology (4)

Retailing (7)Metals and mining (5)

Business and consumer…Hotels and gaming (6)

Media and entertainment (4)Utilities (6)

Transportation infra (10)Health care (1)Insurance (17)

Capital goods (9)Real estate (20)

Energy (10)Chemicals (5)

Transportation (15)Building materials (2)

NBFI (10)Automotive (21)

Sovereign (6)Banks (31)

($ Bil)

Downgrade + CreditWatch Downgrade CreditWatch Negative OL Change

(Number Of Issuers)



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APAC| COVID-19 / Oil-Related Rating Actions

20

Note: Data includes Sovereign. Data from Feb. 3, 2020 to June 15, 2020. Greater China includes mainland China, Taiwan, Macao andHong Kong. Source: S&P Global Ratings.

3

11

75

16

1 1 2 2 2 1 2

28

39

6

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29

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Singapore

South Korea

Sri Lan

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Thaila

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APAC Rating Actions (Including Downgrades and Outlook/CreditWatch Revisions)

Rating Downgrade Outlook / CreditWatch Revisions(Number Of Issuers)



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Ratings Action| Weakest Links and Default Rates

21

Data as of May 31, 2020 and default rates as of May 31, 2020. TE – Tiger Economies. OD – Other Developed. Tiger Economies includes Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Other developed includes Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

APAC weakest links rose and remain near record highs, indicating higher likely default rates for the region

Default rate continues to rise for APAC, highest monthly default rate seen since 2017

0%

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Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20

Weakest Links Count (lhs) Weakest Link Share of Speculative-Grade Population (%) (rhs)

APAC, 4.65%

Other Developed, 8.57%

Tiger Economies, 1.89%

APAC Excluding OD And TE, 4.71%

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2017 2018 2019 2020

APAC Other Developed Tiger Economies APAC Excluding OD And TE



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APAC Corporate | Defaults

22

Data as of June 12, 2020. Default data as of May 31, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings

Eight APAC corporate defaults so far in 2020

APAC default rate rises to 4.65%% by end of May 2020

Date Parent Company Country Sub sector To From Reason1/14/2020 Qinghai Provincial Investment Group Co. Ltd. China Metals, mining, and steel D CCC- Missed interest payments2/21/2020 Tunghsu Group Co. Ltd., China High technology SD CCC- Missed principal and interest payments3/12/2020 Confidential Confidential Metals, mining, and steel SD CCC- Confidential3/19/2020 Geo Energy Resources Ltd. Singapore Metals, mining, and steel SD B- Distressed exchange4/6/2020 FE Investments Ltd. (FE Investments Group Limited) New Zealand Finance companies D CCC Missed interest payments4/7/2020 Speedcast International Ltd. Australia Telecommunications D CCC Missed principal and interest payments4/30/2020 Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd. Australia Transportation D CC Chapter 155/11/2020 Yihua Enterprise (Group) Co. Ltd. China Consumer products SD CCC Missed interest payments

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Defaults Tally (LHS) Speculative Grade Default rate in (%, RHS)Count Of %



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IssuanceAdditional Details



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APAC Issuance| Sovereign Top 20 Deals In 2020 By Debt Amount

24

YTD data as of June 16, 2020; includes local / foreign currencies. Red means speculative-grade rating, blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means NR (not rated). Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

Issue Date Issuer

Country Market Place

S&P Issue-Rating

S&P Sovereign Rating (as of June 23, 2020) Security Description

Currency

Issuance (US $ Mil.)

6-Jan-20 Peoples Republic of China China China Public NR A+ 2.250% Senior Bonds due '21 CNY $ 3,011

7-Jan-20 Indonesia RepublicIndonesia U.S. Public BBB BBB 2.850% Global Notes due '30 USD $ 1,200

7-Jan-20 Indonesia RepublicIndonesia U.S. Public BBB BBB 0.900% Global Notes due '27 EUR $ 1,111

16-Jan-20People's Government of Shanxi China China Public NR A+ 3.620% Fxd/Straight Bd due '35 CNY $ 939

2-Jan-20 Gov of Xingjiang Uygur China China Public NR A+ 3.760% Senior Bonds due '40 CNY $ 862

7-Jan-20 Indonesia RepublicIndonesia U.S. Public BBB BBB 3.500% Global Notes due '50 USD $ 800


21-Jan-20 PhilippinesPhilippines U.S. Public BBB+ BBB+ Zero Cpn Global Notes due '23 EUR $ 662

21-Jan-20 PhilippinesPhilippines U.S. Public BBB+ BBB+ 0.700% Global Notes due '29 EUR $ 662

7-Jan-20 People's Govt of Shenzhen China China Public NR A+ 3.310% Senior Bonds due '27 CNY $ 641













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APAC Issuance| Financial and Non-Financial Top 20 Deals

25

YTD data as of June 16, 2020; excludes Sovereign. Red means speculative-grade rating , blue means investment-grade rating, and grey means NR (not rated). Table is for foreign currency only without perpetuals. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

Issue Date Maturity Date Issuer Country SectorMarket Place

S&P Issue -Rating Security Description Currency

Issuance (US $ Mil)

14-Apr-20 21-Apr-50 Petronas Capital Ltd MalaysiaFinancial Institution U.S. Private NR

4.550% Gtd Mdm-Trm Nts due '50 US $ 2,750

18-Feb-20 25-Feb-25 Mitsubishi UFJ Finl Grp Inc Japan Banks U.S. Public A- 2.193% Global Notes due '25 US $ 2,600

27-May-20 3-Jun-30 Tencent Holdings Ltd China High Technology U.S. Private A+2.390% Medium-Term Nts due '30 US $ 2,249

16-Jan-20 23-Jan-23 Japan Bk for Intl Cooperation Japan Banks U.S. Public A+ 1.750% Global Notes due '23 US $ 2,243

14-Apr-20 21-Apr-30 Petronas Capital Ltd MalaysiaFinancial Institution U.S. Private NR

3.500% Gtd Mdm-Trm Nts due '30 US $ 2,222

21-Jan-20 24-Oct-23 Scenery Journey Ltd ChinaFinance Company Euro Public B 12.000% Gtd Sr Notes due '23 US $ 2,000

21-Jan-20 24-Oct-22 Scenery Journey Ltd ChinaFinance Company Euro Public B 11.500% Gtd Sr Notes due '22 US $ 2,000

27-May-20 3-Jun-50 Tencent Holdings Ltd China High Technology U.S. Private A+3.240% Medium-Term Nts due '50 US $ 1,999

13-May-20 22-May-23 Japan Bk for Intl Cooperation Japan Banks U.S. Public A+ 0.625% Gtd Global Nts due '23 US $ 1,997

9-Jan-20 16-Jan-25 Westpac Banking Corp Australia Banks U.S. Private NR 2.000% Sr Secured Nts due '25 US $ 1,747

23-Jan-20 4-Feb-30 Westpac Banking Corp Australia Banks U.S. Public BBB+ Sub Global Note due '30 US $ 1,500

9-Jan-20 16-Jan-30 Nomura Holdings Inc Japan Broker U.S. Public BBB+ 3.103% Fxd/Straight Bd due '30 US $ 1,500

9-Jan-20 16-Jan-25 Nomura Holdings Inc Japan Broker U.S. Public BBB+ 2.648% Fxd/Straight Bd due '25 US $ 1,500

16-Jun-20 23-Jun-23 New Development Bank China Banks Euro Public AA+0.625% Medium-Term Nts due '23 US $ 1,498

7-Jan-20 16-Jan-25Commonwealth Bank of Australia Australia Banks Euro Public NR Flt Rte Gtd Bds due '25 STG $ 1,312

28-Jan-20 4-Feb-25 National Australia Bank Ltd Australia Banks Euro Public NR Flt Rte Gtd Nts due '25 STG $ 1,303

15-Jan-20 22-Jan-23 BoComm-HKHong Kong Banks Euro Public A- Sr Flt Rt MTN due '23 US $ 1,300

14-Jan-20 21-Jan-23China Development Bank Corp China Banks Euro Public NR 1.250% Sr Unsecurd Nts due '23STG $ 1,298

6-Jan-20 15-Jan-30 Sumitomo Mitsui Finl Grp Inc Japan Banks U.S. Public A- 2.750% Global Notes due '30 US $ 1,250

14-Jan-20 22-Jul-30 ANZ Banking Group Ltd Australia Banks U.S. Private BBB+ Sub Notes due '30 US $ 1,250



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APAC Issuance| Sovereign Debt

26

YTD data as of June 16, 2020; includes local / foreign currencies. Source: S&P Global Ratings Research.

(Bil. USD)

$0.4

$3.0

$1.1

$0.1

$2.0

$2.3

$1.0

$0.1

$1.5

$0.1

$3.1

$0.1 $0.02

$1.3

$-

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

Hong Kong Indonesia Korea, Republic of Malaysia Philippines Thailand

2018 2019 2020

$9.2

$42.3

$9.7

$-

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0

$40.0

$45.0

China

(Bil. USD)

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