baltimore’s forecast – a lot hotter, somewhat wetter, and … change... · 2020. 1. 30. ·...
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Baltimore’s Forecast – A Lot Hotter, Somewhat
Wetter, and Preparing for Both: The Baltimore
and Maryland Strategies for Climate Change
Clifford S. Mitchell, MS, MD, MPH
Director, Environmental Health Bureau
Prevention and Health Promotion Administration
September 17, 2014
Baltimore, MD
Goals of Meeting
• Recap of the project goals and current status
• Discuss what Baltimore City should expect from DHMH
– Types of products
• Review climate forecasts and health data
• Discuss set priorities for composing interventions
MarylandDepartment of Health and Mental Hygiene
Maryland Public HealthClimate Change Strategy
Local health department
University of MarylandSchool of Public Health
Regional Climate Change Forecast
Vulnerability assessment
Disease burden projections
Intervention option 1
Intervention option 2
Intervention option 3
Adaptation plandevelopment and implementation
Evaluation
Disease/OutcomeBurden Estimates
Injuries and temperature-related
health events
Respiratory diseases
Food borne illnesses
Vector borne disease
Develop and Evaluate Interventions
Water borne illness and
injuries
Climate Forecast/ Vulnerability Assessment
Develop Maryland Public Health Climate Change
Strategy
Maryland Climate Change
Action Plan
Evaluation, Feedback, Dissemination
Maryland Environmental Public Health
Tracking
Local Public Health Department Mini-grants
• Enable public health professionals in local health departments (LHDs) to utilize climate forecast projections
• Help LHDs implement climate mitigation and/or adaptation strategies necessary to protect public health
• Evaluate the mitigation and/or adaptation strategy used to determine the quality of improvement and to incorporate refined inputs
Local Public Health Department Projects
Local Priorities
BASELINE HEALTH STATISTICS
Provided by
Ann Liu, PhD, MPH
‹#›
Demographic and Social Determinants of Health (Δ 2005-2000)
Population
-220,000 -120,000 -20,000 80,000 180,000 280,000
Total
Female
Male
% Race/Ethnicity
-4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0
White/Caucasian
Black/African American
Hispanic/Latino
Asian/Pacific Islander
OtherBaltimore City
Maryland
Baltimore City
Maryland
‹#›
% Population Aged Household Income
-4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0
0 - 14
15 - 24
25 - 44
45 - 64
65+
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
Median Household Income
Demographic and Social Determinants of Health (Δ 2005-2000)
Baltimore City
Maryland
Baltimore City
Maryland
‹#›
Socioeconomic Status Crime Rate per 100,000 residents
-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0
% Living in Poverty
% Unemployment
-3000.0 -2500.0 -2000.0 -1500.0 -1000.0 -500.0 0.0
Violent Crime
Property Crime
Demographic and Social Determinants of Health (Δ 2005-2000)
Baltimore City
Maryland
Baltimore City
Maryland
‹#›
Overall Health
Maternal/Child Health
1.6
1.6
-200.0 -150.0 -100.0 -50.0 0.0 50.0
Life Expectancy at Birth
All-Cause Mortality*
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2
Birth Rate**
Infant Mortality Rate**
% Low Birth Weight
% Blood Lead Cases
*Rate per 100,000 residents **Rate per 1,000 births
Demographic and Social Determinants of Health (Δ 2005-2000)
Baltimore City
Maryland
Baltimore City
Maryland
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Heart d
isease
Can
cer
Cereb
rovascu
lar disease
Ch
ron
ic low
er respirato
ryd
isease
Diab
etes mellitu
s
Accid
ents
Influ
enza an
d p
neu
mo
nia
Septicem
ia
Alzh
eimer's d
isease
HIV
Mortality
Baltimore City Maryland
Rate per 100,000 residents
Demographic and Social Determinants of Health (Δ 2005-2000)
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
1400.0
Acu
te myo
cardial in
farction
Asth
ma
All can
cer incid
ence (2
00
5-
20
08
)
Total in
juries
(ho
spitalizatio
ns)
Total in
juries (ED
visits)
Mo
tor veh
icle inju
ries(h
osp
italization
s)
Mo
tor veh
icle inju
ries (EDvisits)
Natu
ral enviro
nm
ent
(ho
spitalizatio
ns)
Natu
ral enviro
nm
ent (ED
visits)
Lyme d
isease
Rab
ies
Morbidity
Baltimore City Maryland
N/A N/A
Demographic and Social Determinants of Health (Δ 2005-2000)
*Rate per 100,000 residents
CLIMATE CHANGE FORECASTS
Provided by University of Maryland School of Public Health
Amir Sapkota, PhD
Chengsheng Jiang, PhD
Climate Forecasts (10th Percentile)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
'06-'10 '16-'20 '26-'30 '36-'40 '46-'50 '56-'60
Mo
nth
ly A
vera
ge o
f N
um
be
r o
f D
ays
Annual
Hot Days Cold Days Precipitation
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
'06-'10 '16-'20 '26-'30 '36-'40 '46-'50 '56-'60
Mo
nth
ly A
vera
ge o
f N
um
be
r o
f D
ays
Spring
Hot Days Cold Days Precipitation
Climate Forecasts (10th Percentile)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
'06-'10 '16-'20 '26-'30 '36-'40 '46-'50 '56-'60
Mo
nth
ly A
vera
ge o
f N
um
be
r o
f D
ays
Summer
Hot Days Cold Days Precipitation
Climate Forecasts (10th Percentile)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
'06-'10 '16-'20 '26-'30 '36-'40 '46-'50 '56-'60
Mo
nth
ly A
vera
ge o
f N
um
be
r o
f D
ays
Autumn
Hot Days Cold Days Precipitation
Climate Forecasts (10th Percentile)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
'06-'10 '16-'20 '26-'30 '36-'40 '46-'50 '56-'60
Mo
nth
ly A
vera
ge o
f N
um
be
r o
f D
ays
Winter
Hot Days Cold Days Precipitation
Climate Forecasts (10th Percentile)
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
• In what way can the data be used to develop a set of priorities and interventions based on those priorities?
• What is the process by which Baltimore City can complete the objectives?
• Who are some community partners that are: 1. Interested in climate change 2. Vulnerable populations that lack foresight 3. Health cares systems and health providers 4. Business community 5. Academic community
Distributions of Yearly Extreme Events from 1979 to 2060
‹#›
October ‘14 January ‘15 April ‘15 July ‘15
Title Title Title Title
• List of activities • Bullet 1 • Bullet 2 • Bullet 3 • Bullet 4
• List of activities • Bullet 1 • Bullet 2 • Bullet 3 • Bullet 4
• List of activities • Bullet 1 • Bullet 2 • Bullet 3 • Bullet 4
• List of activities • Bullet 1 • Bullet 2 • Bullet 3 • Bullet 4
Ou
tco
mes
• Outcome 1 • Outcome 2 • Outcome 3
• Outcome 1 • Outcome 2 • Outcome 3
• Outcome 1 • Outcome 2 • Outcome 3
• Outcome 1 • Outcome 2 • Outcome 3
Timeline
Thank you!
Closing Remarks