bot overview jan2012

7/31/2019 Bot Overview Jan2012

1/24

Macroeconomic Assessment

29 February 2012


2/24

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan

2008

Jul Jan

2009

Jul Jan

2010

Jul Jan

2011

Jul Jan

2012

Production Price%YoY

Change in Agricultural Price andProduction

(%YoY) 2010 20112011 2012

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan

Nominal farm incomep 22.7 15.8 33.0 1.9 5.3 -1.7 -1.0 -11.2

Agricultural productionp -2.0 3.2 9.2 -1.5 -2.2 -1.1 3.5 0.9

Agricultural price 25.2 12.2 21.8 3.4 7.7 -0.6 -4.3 -12.0

Source: OAE, calculated by BOT

-20

-10

0

10

20

0

50

100

150200

250

300

Jan

2008

Jul Jan

2009

Jul Jan

2010

Jul Jan

2011

Jul Jan

2012

Level (s.a.) MoM growth (RHS)

Index

2005=100

Nominal Farm Income

%MoM, sa

2

Farm Income From Major Agricultural Products

P = preliminary data


3/24

Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)

Sectoral Analysis Team Tel. 0-2283-5650Source : Constructed from The Office of Industrial Economics

Note:MPI from The Office of Industrial Economics are used from August 2010 onwards and weighted by value added

P = Preliminary

(%YOY)Weight

20002010 2011

2011 2012

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec JanP

Food & Beverages 15.5 4.3 3.9 1.7 6.3 10.3 2.6 10.2 3.9

Petroleum 10.4 2.5 -4.0 -3.9 -4.1 -0.3 -7.9 3.3 7.0

Textiles 7.3 6.5 -17.7 -2.8 -31.2 -23.3 -39.0 -35.6 -38.9

Apparel 7.1 3.8 -18.0 -8.4 -26.9 -26.5 -27.3 -15.9 -21.2

HDD 7.2 14.2 -16.3 -7.8 -25.0 4.3 -55.0 -55.7 -32.0

IC & Semiconductor 6.8 30.9 -12.8 10.7 -34.0 -9.8 -60.4 -61.1 -46.4

Vehicles 5.4 52.5 -14.2 -3.3 -24.5 14.3 -61.6 -30.4 -2.9

Cement & Construction 4.8 10.3 0.6 2.1 -0.8 4.8 -6.5 -0.8 5.2

Chemical 4.4 8.4 -3.2 0.5 -6.6 -3.0 -10.3 8.2 7.3

Rubber & Plastic 4.0 9.7 2.0 2.6 1.5 9.0 -6.4 -8.2 -4.1

Electrical Appliances 3.7 36.7 -0.1 17.4 -17.5 4.2 -40.4 -13.4 -14.7

MPI 100.0 14.4 -9.3 -2.3 -16.1 1.8 -34.2 -25.3 -15.2

MPI (sa) % from last period 100.0 - - - 2.7 -34.4 37.8 19.1

3


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100

150

200

250

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Jan

2008

Apr Jul Oct Jan

2009

Apr Jul Oct Jan

2010

Apr Jul Oct Jan

2011

Apr Jul Oct

level sa 3mma, sa Capacity index (RHS)

Capacity Utilization and Capacity Index

%

Sectoral Analysis Team Tel. 0-2283-5650

Index

Source : Constructed from The Office of Industrial Economics

Note:CAPU from The Office of Industrial Economics are used from August 2010 onwards and weighted by production value

P = Preliminary

2010 20112011 2012


CAPU (%) 63.2 58.1 60.9 55.4 64.5 46.3 51.9 58.5

CAPU sa (%) - - - - 63.3 46.5 52.5 60.2

Capacity index(end period) 164.9 165.4 166.3 165.4 166.4 165.4 165.4 164.1

4


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%Weight

2000

2010 20112011 2012


Food & Beverages 16.6 56.2 56.8 56.3 57.2 57.8 56.7 63.5 58.6

Vehicles 12.4 80.9 67.1 73.1 61.0 90.3 31.7 53.4 81.9

Textile 10.2 52.8 44.1 48.8 39.3 44.5 34.2 33.7 35.7

Apparel 2.4 62.0 47.9 51.5 44.3 48.2 40.4 45.5 44.8

Petroleum 8.0 59.9 58.1 57.3 58.9 61.8 55.9 65.5 66.6

Chemical 6.9 82.4 79.0 80.0 77.9 84.7 71.1 72.2 87.9

Rubber & Plastic 6.9 64.9 66.6 64.3 68.9 73.7 64.0 60.2 61.1

HDD 5.5 81.0 67.1 74.6 59.5 83.7 35.4 34.9 47.5

Cement & Construction 4.5 64.5 64.6 65.0 64.1 68.8 59.4 64.9 68.7

IC & Semiconductor 4.1 78.4 68.0 81.0 55.0 80.8 29.2 28.0 61.8

Electrical Appliances 2.2 67.9 67.0 78.1 56.0 71.7 40.2 53.9 62.1

CAPU 100.0 63.2 58.1 60.9 55.4 64.5 46.3 51.9 58.5

CAPU (sa) 100.0 - - - - 63.3 46.5 52.5 60.2

Capacity Utilization

Sectoral Analysis Team Tel. 0-2283-5650Source : Constructed from The Office of Industrial Economics

Note:CAPU from The Office of Industrial Economics are used from August 2010 onwards and weighted by production value

P = Preliminary

5


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Tourism

%YoYNo. of tourists (000)

%YoY 2010 20112011 p 2012P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan

No. of tourists (000) 15,936 19,110 9,755 9,355 4,932 4,422 1,780 1,950

%YoY 12.6 19.9 29.0 11.7 31.1 -4.2 -2.2 8.0

Occupancy rate (%) 50.6 57.4 59.0 56.2 56.9 55.6 57.0 65.1

-30

0

30

60

90

120

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Jan

2008

Apr Jul Oct Jan

2009

Apr Jul Oct Jan

2010

Apr Jul Oct Jan

2011

Apr Jul Oct Jan

2012

No. of tourists Growth (RHS)

6

Source : Tourism Authority of Thailand BOP Analysis Team Tel. 0-2283-5636


7/24

Note: * January-2012 index is constructed by estimated import data from the Monetary Policy Group due to the postponement of

dissemination of international trade statistics.P = Preliminary

Index % YoY

Macroeconomic Team Tel. 0-2283-5647Source : Bank of Thailand

Private Consumption Index (PCI)*(Seasonally adjusted, 2000=100)

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

110

115

120

125130

135

140

145

Jan

2008

Jul Jan

2009

Jul Jan

2010

Jul Jan

2011

Jul Jan

2012

PCI %YOY (RHS)

2010 2011

2011 2012

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec Janp

PCI 134.8 139.6 140.1 139.0 140.6 137.4 141.5 142.1

%YoY 5.9 3.5 4.3 2.7 4.2 1.3 3.1 2.6

%MoM, %QoQ -0.2 -2.3 4.8 0.4

7


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%YoY 2010 20112011 2012

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec Janp

Car Index 42.6 3.2 22.6 -12.9 20.0 -41.3 -34.1 -3.7

- Passenger car 50.7 4.0 26.3 -13.7 22.9 -44.4 -33.8 -9.8

- Motorcycle 22.9 6.4 16.4 -3.1 13.5 -19.6 -22.3 -7.4

- Commercial car 42.3 -4.4 17.2 -22.0 17.1 -53.4 -46.9 29.1

Fuel Index 2.2 5.3 5.7 4.9 7.0 3.0 7.5 5.4

- Benzene& Gasohol -1.4 -1.4 0.9 -3.7 -0.8 -6.5 -1.0 -0.2

- Diesel 0.1 3.3 2.9 3.8 3.8 3.9 7.5 1.7

- LPG 7.5 14.8 13.9 15.6 20.6 10.8 16.5 16.7

- NGV 35.1 28.5 37.3 21.0 34.2 9.1 15.7 29.8

Household Electricity 9.8 -1.3 -6.5 4.3 3.6 5.2 4.9 13.3

Imports of Consumer Goods (real terms) 22.6 11.9 14.0 9.9 14.2 5.6 14.1 n.a.

VAT (real terms) 15.5 10.2 11.9 8.6 10.6 6.6 9.8 6.0

Macroeconomic Team Tel. 0-2283-5647

Private Consumption Indicators(% change from same period last year)

Source : Bank of Thailand

P = Preliminary data

8


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-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

Jan2008

Apr Jul Oct Jan2009

Apr Jul Oct Jan2010

Apr Jul Oct Jan2011

Apr Jul Oct Jan2012

PII %YoY (RHS)

Index %YoY

Macroeconomic Team Tel. 0-2283-5648Source : Bank of Thailand

Private Investment Index (PII)(Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average)

2010 2011

2011 2012


PII 186.6 199.2 205.0 193.4 206.3 180.4 180.4 194.8

%YoY 18.5 6.7 11.2 2.4 8.7 -3.9 -3.9 -0.4

%QoQ, %MoM - - - - 2.3 -12.6 -2.9 8.0

Note: * January-2012 index is constructed by estimated import data from the Monetary Policy Group due to the postponement of

dissemination of international trade statistics.P = Preliminary

9


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% YoY 2010 2011

2011 2012

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan

Construction Area Permitted

(12m ma)13.1 6.4 4.3 8.5 6.8 10.2 16.1 12.7

Cement Sales

(thousand tonne)8.8 4.6 2.5 7.0 9.9 4.1 4.7 7.2P

Real Imports of Capital

Goods24.9 12.7 18.3 7.6 11.0 4.0 13.5 n.a.

Real Domestic Machinery

Sales32.6 10.0 19.1 1.7 14.1 -10.4 -5.6 n.a.

Commercial Car Sales (unit) 42.3 -4.4 17.2 -22.0 17.1 -53.4 -46.9 29.1

Note: P = Preliminary data

Macroeconomic Team Tel. 0-2283-5648

Private Investment Indicators(% change from the same period last year)

10


11/24

Business Sentiment Index

Source : BSI is constructed by the BOT

Index (Unchanged = 50)

20102011 2012

H1 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan

BSI 50.9 51.8 50.6 41.4 48.5 50.8

Expected BSI 55.7 54.8 53.8 51.4 56.9 56.5

Economic Intelligence Team Tel.0-2283-5646

30

40

50

60

Jan

2009

Jul Jan

2010

Jul Jan

2011

Jul Jan

2012

BSI Expected BSI (next 3 months)Apr 12 = 56.5

Jan 12 = 50.8

11


12/24Public Finance Team Tel.0-2283-5628Source: Fiscal Policy Office, Revenue Department

Fiscal YearShare

2011

FY 11 P FY 12 P

Total Q1 Dec Jan

1. Tax 91 2,018.3 389.0 132.4 136.9

1.1 Income Tax 40 891.8 121.4 34.8 43.9

PIT 11 236.3 51.9 18.1 27.3

CIT 26 574.1 68.8 16.6 16.5

1.2 Consumption Tax 46 1,013.0 237.9 86.4 82.4

VAT 26 577.6 145.5 52.0 51.7

Excise Tax 18 399.8 83.2 30.8 27.9

1.3 Intl Trade 5 100.2 26.8 10.1 9.5

2. Non-tax 9 206.1 62.5 11.8 13.9

3. Total Revenue 100 2,224.4 451.5 144.2 150.8

4. Net Revenue 1,891.0 397.0 125.3 126.4

Government Revenue (by Collection Tax Base)

Total Revenue Dec = 144.2 Bn. (0.8%) Jan = 150.8 Bn. (-3.7%)

12


13/24Public Finance Team Tel.0-2283-5628

Fiscal YearShare

2011

FY 11 P FY 12 P

Total Q1 Dec Jan

1.Expense 89.9 1,801.8 458.9 159.4 141.7

- Compensation of employees 36.3 727.7 198.9 64.5 66.5

- Used of goods and Services 17.7 355.0 70.2 38.1 23.6

- Interest 6.5 129.4 28.0 15.5 15.9

- Subsidy & Grants & Social benefits 29.4 589.7 161.8 41.4 35.7

2.Acquisition of nonfinancial assets 10.1 201.5 30.4 13.2 8.6

Total expense (1+2) 100.0 2,003.3 489.4 172.6 150.3

Government Expenditure (by Economic classifications)

Source: GFMIS & BOT

P= Preliminary data

Note: Data have been revised in accordance with the GFS manual year 2001.

13


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Export Growth (in terms of US$)

Source: Compiled from Customs Departments data BOP Analysis Team Tel. 0-2283 - 6726

Jan 2012 = $ 15.5 Bn (-6.1%)Dec 2011 = $ 16.9 Bn (-2.1%)

%YoY Share2011

P

2010 2011P 2011P

2012P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan

Agriculture 10.6 36.7 44.3 52.3 37.2 69.9 11.6 -8.1 -20.3

Fishery 1.3 16.0 6.4 7.0 6.0 10.8 1.4 -4.0 -4.0

Manufacturing 83.9 28.4 15.4 21.7 9.7 24.8 -5.3 0.8 -8.8

Agro-manufacturing Products 12.6 21.8 33.7 25.4 42.0 51.3 33.0 60.3 13.4

Electronics 14.3 20.9 -2.5 4.2 -8.9 10.6 -29.0 -30.6 -26.5Automotive 10.2 52.8 3.8 10.2 -1.9 15.2 -20.4 -0.2 -8.5

Machinery & Equipment 7.4 43.7 13.7 20.8 7.7 8.5 6.9 16.5 -6.9

Petro-chemical Products 5.2 36.6 31.5 44.4 20.7 31.2 10.7 7.1 -5.8

Electrical Appliances 5.0 30.6 8.5 18.4 -0.9 14.6 -17.6 -2.5 -10.9

Petroleum products 5.0 29.9 30.9 31.7 30.3 47.6 12.5 38.9 52.3

Metal & Steel 4.1 9.7 12.9 14.0 11.9 25.5 -1.0 -5.3 -8.0

Apparels & Textile Materials 3.7 19.1 7.5 18.9 -2.4 8.8 -13.1 -16.8 -18.7

Total 100.0 28.4 16.4 22.6 10.7 27.3 -5.2 -2.1 -6.1

Price 9.1 5.6 6.8 4.4 6.4 2.5 1.4 1.2

Quantity : 17.9 10.2 14.8 6.0 19.7 -7.5 -3.4 -7.2

Note: Data have been revised in accordance with the sixth edition of the balance of payment manual, and re-classify product groups according to HS2012


15/24

Dec 2011 = $ 17.1 Bn (19.6 %)

Import Growth (in terms of US$)

Jan 2012 = $ 15.0 Bn (-2.5%)

Source: Compiled from Customs Departments data BOP Analysis Team Tel. 0-2283 - 6726

%YoYShare

2011P

2010 2011P

2011P 2012P

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec Jan

Consumer 7.4 23.2 24.0 27.5 20.9 28.3 14.0 24.4 6.6

Raw material & Intermediate 58.9 36.6 19.7 26.0 13.8 29.9 -1.1 0.6 -4.2

o/w Fuel 18.8 28.5 35.0 35.0 35.0 65.1 11.2 21.3 5.6

Capital 21.3 28.4 27.1 33.8 21.1 26.9 15.1 22.5 5.2

Automotive 4.3 64.9 9.6 12.4 7.2 10.2 4.3 4.8 3.8

Total Value 100.0 37.0 24.7 26.9 22.7 33.4 12.2 19.6 -2.5

Price 8.1 10.1 10.2 9.9 11.7 8.3 7.0 6.4

Quantity : 27.3 13.3 15.1 11.5 19.4 3.7 11.8 -8.4

Note: Data have been revised in accordance with the sixth edition of the balance of payment manual, and re-classify product groups according to HS2012


16/24

-3,500

-2,500

-1,500

-500

500

1,500

2,500

Mar-08

Jun-0

8

Sep-0

8

Dec-0

8

Mar-09

Jun-0

9

Sep-0

9

Dec-0

9

Mar-10

Jun-1

0

Sep-1

0

Dec-1

0

Mar-11

Jun-1

1

Sep-1

1

Dec-1

1

Net Services and Transfer (sa)

Million USD

Net Services and Transfers

BOP Analysis Team Tel. 0-2283-5636Source: Bank of Thailand

Note: Data have been revised in accordance with the sixth edition of the balance of payment manual.

Net Services Income and Transfers

Jan=235

16


17/24

Net Financial Flows

BOP Analysis Team Tel. 0-2283-6726Source: Bank of Thailand

E =Estimated data P=Preliminary data

Note: Data have been revised in accordance with the sixth edition of the balance of payment manual.

Billions of USD 2010 2011P

2011P 2012E

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Dec P Jan E

1.Government 3.6 3.7 1.5 2.2 1.8 0.4 0.2 0.3

2.Central Bank 2.7 -0.1 1.0 -1.2 0.1 -1.3 -0.6 0.8

3. Other Depository Corporations 10.3 -8.1 1.5 -9.7 -1.0 -8.7 -0.7 0.7

- Foreign Portfolio -0.5 -0.4 -1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.1

- Foreign Loan 8.4 0.3 5.4 -5.1 1.0 -6.1 -0.9 1.0

- Thai Portfolio -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0

- Deposits Abroad -0.4 -3.5 -0.7 -2.9 -1.4 -1.5 0.9 -1.0

- Thai loans -0.2 -3.1 -1.3 -1.8 -0.3 -1.5 -0.5 -0.3

4.Other Sectors 7.4 -2.5 -3.2 0.7 -3.0 3.7 -1.8 -2.8

- Foreign Direct Investment 7.6 8.0 3.5 4.5 2.2 2.3 0.8 0.3

- Foreign Portfolio 2.8 0.2 1.0 -0.8 -1.1 0.3 0.0 0.1

- Foreign Trade Credit 6.3 1.2 2.2 -0.9 0.5 -1.5 -0.1 1.3

- Thailand Direct Investment -5.7 -10.7 -5.9 -4.8 -2.9 -1.9 -1.0 -1.1

- Thai Portfolio 0.8 0.4 -0.2 0.6 1.2 -0.6 -1.0 -1.6

- Thai Trade Credits -5.1 -1.7 -2.8 1.1 -3.0 4.1 -1.0 -1.6

Net Financial Flows 24.0 -7.1 0.9 -8.0 -2.0 -6.0 -2.8 -0.9

17


18/24

External Debt Outstanding

Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding.

* valuation change ** including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF

Billions of USD 20102011 P 2012

Change

Jan12/Dec11

Q1 Q2 Q3 Dec Jan

E

Total

1. General government 7.8 8.6 8.7 10.5 11.0 11.6 0.6

2. Central Bank ** 4.9 6.6 5.9 6.2 5.2 6.0 0.8

3. Other Depository

Corporations (ODC)20.8 23.0 26.1 27.0 20.5 22.7 2.2

4. Other Sectors 67.1 70.0 71.3 71.9 69.8 71.4 1.6

- Other Financial

corporations7.1 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.2 0.2

- Non Financial

corporations60.0 60.9 62.2 62.9 60.8 62.2 1.4

5. Total 100.6 108.2 112.0 115.6 106.5 111.7 5.2

Short-term (%) 50.4 51.5 52.6 50.8 46.4 46.5

Long-term (%) 49.6 48.5 47.4 49.2 53.6 53.5

Source: Bank of Thailand BOP Analysis Team Tel. 0-2283-6726

Data have been revised in accordance with the sixth edition of the balance of payment manual.

E= Estimated data by Monetary Policy Group.

18


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2930313233343536

37

96

100

104

108

Jan

2008

Jul Jan

2009

Jul Jan

2010

Jul Jan

2011

Jul Jan

2012

External Stability

Source : Bank of Thailand BOP Analysis Team Tel. 0-2283-6726

Note : Data on the Balance of Payment have been revised in accordance with the sixth edition of the balance of payment manual.

Index THB/USD

Baht/US$ (RHS)NEER

NEER vs Exchange Rate

Jan 201299.56

Jan 201231.55

E= Estimated data by Monetary Policy Group.

-25

5

35

65

95

125

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Q1-11

Q2-11

Q3-11

Q4-11

'Jan-12

Public

Others

ODC

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Q1-11

Q2-11

Q3-11

Q4-11

'Jan-12

Billion USDExternal Debt Reserves/Short-term debt

Jan 2012

3.4

Jan 2012

111.7

19


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-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

Jan

2007

Jul Jan

2008

Jul Jan

2009

Jul Jan

2010

Jul Jan

2011

Jul Jan

2012

Internal Stability

Inflation

Source: Ministry of commerce

3.38

2.75

Jan 12 %YoY 2010 2011

2011 2012

H1 H2 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec Jan

Headline 3.3 3.81 3.56 4.05 4.13 3.97 4.19 3.53 3.38

Core 1.0 2.36 1.91 2.80 2.79 2.82 2.90 2.66 2.75

PPI 9.4 5.5 6.1 4.8 5.6 4.1 3.5 4.5 3.6

%YoY

Source: NSO

Macro Surveillance Team Tel. 0-2283-6824

0.0

0.6

1.2

1.8

2.4

3.0

0

250

500

750

1,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2552 2553 2554

25522 25542 25543

Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO

Unemployment

Unemployed person

Unemployment rate (RHS)

%Thousand persons

% 20102011

Year H1 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec

Unemployed

persons (000)402.2 264.3 274.5 262.4 245.9 322.0 171.7

Unemployment

(s.a.)

1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8

(0.8)

0.4

(0.5)

20

21


21/24

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul Jan-10 Jul Jan-11 Jul Jan-12

Interbank

1-day R/P

% p.a.

Source: Bank of Thailand

3.002.90

1 21 Feb 2012

Money Market Rates

Monetary Policy Strategy Team Tel. 02-283-6186

(average over

period)2010 2011 Q1/11 Q2/11 Q3/11 Q4/11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12

1 21

Feb 12

R/P 1 day 1.48 2.95 2.29 2.79 3.33 3.41 3.49 3.25 3.19 3.00

Interbank (mode) 1.36 2.84 2.17 2.67 3.23 3.32 3.39 3.15 3.09 2.90

21

22


22/24

11.3

16.0

15.0

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-1

Note: * Depository Corporations comprise Domestically Registered Commercial Banks, Branches of Foreign Banks, International Banking Facilities, Finance

Companies, Specialized Banks, Thrift and Credit Cooperatives, and Money Market Mutual Funds.

Source: Bank of Thailand

** Adjusted for items that are reclassified to be Negotiable Certificate of Deposit (NCD)

P = Preliminary

Other Depository Corporations* Deposits and Private Credits

Monetary Policy Strategy Team Tel. 02-283-6186

Deposits**

Private Credits

Deposits + B/E**

Jan 2012P

(11,806.4)

%YoY

Change from end of previous period

(billion baht)2009 2010 2011 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12P

Deposits 531.0 848.4 1,050.9 98.4 172.8 171.9

Private credits 267.5 1,114.3 1,611.9 97.4 249.1 114.6

(13,378.7)

(11,673.5)

22

23


23/24

* Interest rates quoted by 4 largest Thai banks

** Real MLR and Real 12m deposit rates are adjusted by expected headline inflation 12 months ahead.

1/Average Min-Max

Jan 2012

% p.a.

Commercial Banks Real Interest Rates

Source: Bank of Thailand Monetary Policy Strategy Team Tel. 02-283-6186

- 0.29

7.22

2.873.93

0.02

End-month Dec 10 July 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12

MLR 6.12 7.13 7.19 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.22

12-m deposit 1/ 1.55 2.62 2.74 2.87 2.87 2.87 2.87 2.87

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan

2008

Jul-08 Jan

2009

Jul Jan

2010

Jul Jan

2011

July Jan

2012

MLR* Real MLR**

12m deposit* Real 12m deposit**

Real Policy Rate

23

24


24/24

%

Note: *Comprised of Domestically Registered Commercial Banks and Branches of Foreign Banks

P = Preliminary

Loan-to-Deposit Ratio of Banking System (Adjusted for B/E)*

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12

Jan 2012P

89.5

24

bot overview jan2012

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