9/26/2007 1

Building Owners and Building Owners and Managers AssociationManagers Association Building Owners and Building Owners and

Managers AssociationManagers Association

September 26, 2007September 26, 2007September 26, 2007September 26, 2007

Roads & Transit Roads & Transit ForumForumbb

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Jim HornJim HornDick Dick

PaylorPaylor

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Former U.S. Secretary of Transportation Norman Mineta May 16, 2006 in a speech to the National Retail Federation

“Congestion is not a scientific mystery, nor is it an uncontrollable force. Congestion results from poor policy choices and a failure to separate solutions that are effective from those that are not. We need a new approach, and we need it now.”

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City of SeattleDominates Transit Trips

City of SeattleDominates Transit Trips

2020 Transit Trips

Seattle-

Seattle67%

Seattle-

Suburbs19%

Suburb-

Suburb14%

2020 All Person-Trips

Suburb-

Suburb76%

Seattle-

Seattle15%

Seattle-Suburbs

9%

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12-Dec-06 Myths & Facts, Urban Transportation (TDA Inc.)

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Percent of Daily Person-Trips by Transit (Central Puget Sound)

6%

3.5%2.7%

3.0%

2.5%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

(Sources: P SRC, National Transit Database, TDA)

4.5% (May ’98)

4.6% (Mar. ’04, MTP Update)

Actual PSRC Projection

1996 ST Vote

4.5% (July ’06, High Estimate)

8.5% (Jan ’95)

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Does light rail make sense on I-90?

Does light rail make sense on I-90?

High Risk - Safety Standpoint (Expert Review Panel)

Increases Congestion and Reduces Usage

Legal Challenge - “Taking of the Center Roadway”

There is a “Better Way” – more service for less money

High Risk - Safety Standpoint (Expert Review Panel)

Increases Congestion and Reduces Usage

Legal Challenge - “Taking of the Center Roadway”

There is a “Better Way” – more service for less money

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In SummaryIn SummaryIn SummaryIn Summary Costs too muchCosts too much

Does too littleDoes too little

Does the wrong Does the wrong thingsthings

Costs too muchCosts too much

Does too littleDoes too little

Does the wrong Does the wrong thingsthings

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All-or-Nothing BallotAll-or-Nothing BallotAll-or-Nothing BallotAll-or-Nothing Ballot The Roads & Transit Package is an All-or Nothing Ballot For New and Extended Transportation Taxes

Approval of ST2 Includes Extension of ST1 Taxes

New tax Levies: RTID – +0.1% Sales Tax plus 0.8% MVET ST2 – Extends the ST1 0.4% Sales Tax and increases it to 0.9%

Total Package Tax – 1.0% Sales Tax plus 0.8% MVET

Tax Sunset Years RTID – Will Sunset in 2037 after accelerated bond payoff ST1 & ST2 – Hopeful reduction after 2057 bond payoff But obligated to cover O&M costs and capital replacement Reserves in perpetuity

The Roads & Transit Package is an All-or Nothing Ballot For New and Extended Transportation Taxes

Approval of ST2 Includes Extension of ST1 Taxes

New tax Levies: RTID – +0.1% Sales Tax plus 0.8% MVET ST2 – Extends the ST1 0.4% Sales Tax and increases it to 0.9%

Total Package Tax – 1.0% Sales Tax plus 0.8% MVET

Tax Sunset Years RTID – Will Sunset in 2037 after accelerated bond payoff ST1 & ST2 – Hopeful reduction after 2057 bond payoff But obligated to cover O&M costs and capital replacement Reserves in perpetuity

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A 50-year Tax CommitmentA 50-year Tax CommitmentA 50-year Tax CommitmentA 50-year Tax Commitment The R&T is a 50-year transportation tax commitment -- 90% dedicated to public transit

But even ST admits that ST2 will have an insignificant effect on road congestion reduction Shifts 0.5% of 16.4 million person trips/day to transit by 2030

It will be 20 years before most of ST2 rail goes into operation

Road Congestion is the #1 concern for this region – The RTID is a vastly reduced start on addressing road congestion

The R&T is a 50-year transportation tax commitment -- 90% dedicated to public transit

But even ST admits that ST2 will have an insignificant effect on road congestion reduction Shifts 0.5% of 16.4 million person trips/day to transit by 2030

It will be 20 years before most of ST2 rail goes into operation

Road Congestion is the #1 concern for this region – The RTID is a vastly reduced start on addressing road congestion

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R&T Tax Revenue EstimatesR&T Tax Revenue EstimatesR&T Tax Revenue EstimatesR&T Tax Revenue Estimates

Program Thru 2027 Cum thru 2057 % Total ST1 extended $11.4 $64 41% ST2 $15.0 $77 49% RTID $8.0 $16* 10% Total $34.5 $157** 100%

Program Thru 2027 Cum thru 2057 % Total ST1 extended $11.4 $64 41% ST2 $15.0 $77 49% RTID $8.0 $16* 10% Total $34.5 $157** 100%

Actual $ in billionsActual $ in billions

* Tax collections end in 2037.

** $157 billion in local tax commitment with one pull of the lever at the polls in Nov 2007 – 90% to be dedicated to public transit, mostly to the 70-mile light rail system overlay of existing express bus routes.

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R&T Tax Costs per HouseholdR&T Tax Costs per HouseholdR&T Tax Costs per HouseholdR&T Tax Costs per Household Sound Transit has published extreme lowball estimates

RTID - $25 + $80 per $10,000 of vehicle value per year (2006$) ST2 - $125 per year; no reminder of ST1 tax extension (2006$) Business tax pass-thru to householders ignored plus other omissions

Dividing Tax Revenues by Households yields:

Sound Transit has published extreme lowball estimates RTID - $25 + $80 per $10,000 of vehicle value per year (2006$) ST2 - $125 per year; no reminder of ST1 tax extension (2006$) Business tax pass-thru to householders ignored plus other omissions

Dividing Tax Revenues by Households yields:

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Program In 2009*ST1 $336ST2 $332RTID $204Totals $872

Cum thru 2057 $38,100 (41%) $44,900 (48%) $10,600 (11%) $93,600**

* First full year of R&T tax collections** 50-year cumulative tax collections per household in Actual$

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Excluded from the RTIDExcluded from the RTIDExcluded from the RTIDExcluded from the RTID No funding for the Alaskan Way Viaduct Project No funding for I-5 Improvements Incomplete funding for SR-509 Extension (SeaTac) Incomplete funding for SR-167 Ext to Port of Tacoma

No funding for Valley Freeway (SR-167) expansion No funding for expansion of I-405 north of Bellevue CBD

Incomplete funding for SR-520 Bridge Replacement No funding for SR-520/SR-202 terminal mess in Redmond

Only Phase 1 funding for US-2 Monroe Bypass and no expansion of US-2 from Monroe eastward

No funding for the Alaskan Way Viaduct Project No funding for I-5 Improvements Incomplete funding for SR-509 Extension (SeaTac) Incomplete funding for SR-167 Ext to Port of Tacoma

No funding for Valley Freeway (SR-167) expansion No funding for expansion of I-405 north of Bellevue CBD

Incomplete funding for SR-520 Bridge Replacement No funding for SR-520/SR-202 terminal mess in Redmond

Only Phase 1 funding for US-2 Monroe Bypass and no expansion of US-2 from Monroe eastward

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RTID Fin Plan SummaryRTID Fin Plan SummaryRTID Fin Plan SummaryRTID Fin Plan Summary 2008 thru 2027 thru 2037 CommentRevenues

Local Taxes $8,057 $16,100 End of tax collection

Bond Proceeds 6,255 0 Principal Repaid

Other/Interest 154 250 Total $14,466 $16,350 Total Program Revenue

Expenses Capital Projects $9,672 $9,672Finance Costs 4,313 6,380* *Interest Cost only

Admin/Reserves 481 298 Bond reserves released

Total $14,466 $16,350

2008 thru 2027 thru 2037 CommentRevenues

Local Taxes $8,057 $16,100 End of tax collection

Bond Proceeds 6,255 0 Principal Repaid

Other/Interest 154 250 Total $14,466 $16,350 Total Program Revenue

Expenses Capital Projects $9,672 $9,672Finance Costs 4,313 6,380* *Interest Cost only

Admin/Reserves 481 298 Bond reserves released

Total $14,466 $16,350

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Actual $ in millionsActual $ in millions

Total Tax Commitment = $16,100O&M Costs revert to existing highway tax revenues

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What Does ST2 Include?What Does ST2 Include?What Does ST2 Include?What Does ST2 Include? 50 miles of Light Rail extensions that merely overlay existing downtown Seattle-centric Express Bus Routes 95% of the ST2 Capital Investment program

Regional Express (REx) Bus System (3%): 1 transit center and 3 park-ride lots Bus fleet enhancements and two new bases (transferred from ST1)

29 of 33 requested REx projects eliminated, including all new routes and facilities in the I-405 corridor called for in the adopted corridor plan

Sounder (2%): 7 of the 18 proposed ST2 projects (mostly transferred from ST1)

ST2 is now 95% Dedicated to Light Rail Extensions

50 miles of Light Rail extensions that merely overlay existing downtown Seattle-centric Express Bus Routes 95% of the ST2 Capital Investment program

Regional Express (REx) Bus System (3%): 1 transit center and 3 park-ride lots Bus fleet enhancements and two new bases (transferred from ST1)

29 of 33 requested REx projects eliminated, including all new routes and facilities in the I-405 corridor called for in the adopted corridor plan

Sounder (2%): 7 of the 18 proposed ST2 projects (mostly transferred from ST1)

ST2 is now 95% Dedicated to Light Rail Extensions

1313

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ST2 Fin Plan SummaryST2 Fin Plan SummaryST2 Fin Plan SummaryST2 Fin Plan Summarythru 2057 CommentBy MacIsaac thru Bond retirement

$77,000 Adds to $64 billion ST1 Extension

4,400 $600m Capital, Balance for O&M 0 Principal repaid by 2057 14,300 15% of Total Cost $95,700 Total Program Revenue

$17,500 95% to Light Rail extensions 52,000 With half the COP warning 9,100 17,100 $95,700

thru 2057 CommentBy MacIsaac thru Bond retirement

$77,000 Adds to $64 billion ST1 Extension

4,400 $600m Capital, Balance for O&M 0 Principal repaid by 2057 14,300 15% of Total Cost $95,700 Total Program Revenue

$17,500 95% to Light Rail extensions 52,000 With half the COP warning 9,100 17,100 $95,700

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2008 thru 2027

Revenues Local Taxes $15,000Federal Grants 900Bond Proceeds 7,320Fares & Other 340Total $23,560

Expenses Capital Projects $17,500 Op &Admin Costs 2,630Finance Costs 2,010Reserves 1,420Total $23,560

2008 thru 2027

Revenues Local Taxes $15,000Federal Grants 900Bond Proceeds 7,320Fares & Other 340Total $23,560

Expenses Capital Projects $17,500 Op &Admin Costs 2,630Finance Costs 2,010Reserves 1,420Total $23,560

Actual $ in millionsActual $ in millions

ST Disclosure of Program Cost = $23,560 + $7,240 = $30,800

$7,240 after 2027

The 50-year Cost Commitment

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In 1990 8.2% 0.6% 7%

Local County Transit

In 1997 8.6% 1.0% 12%

Sound Transit Phase 1 Tax Added

In 2007 8.9% 1.3% 15%

MVET Replacement and KC Transit Now

With Prop 1 9.5% 1.9% 20%

Plus 0.5% Sound Transit; Plus 0.1% RTID

In 1990 8.2% 0.6% 7%

Local County Transit

In 1997 8.6% 1.0% 12%

Sound Transit Phase 1 Tax Added

In 2007 8.9% 1.3% 15%

MVET Replacement and KC Transit Now

With Prop 1 9.5% 1.9% 20%

Plus 0.5% Sound Transit; Plus 0.1% RTID

Total Transit % ofS.Tax Share Total

Should 20% of all state sales tax be dedicated to Transit?

Transit Sales Tax Escalation

Transit Sales Tax Escalation

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Transit RidershipTransit RidershipTransit RidershipTransit Ridership Sound Transit releases ridership in terms of “Boardings”

But the true measure is completed “trips” from O to D Trips via Light Rail require 2 or 3 bus and rail Boardings

Below are Sound Transit’s estimates for transit usage

Sound Transit releases ridership in terms of “Boardings”

But the true measure is completed “trips” from O to D Trips via Light Rail require 2 or 3 bus and rail Boardings

Below are Sound Transit’s estimates for transit usage

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ST Service Area 2030 Average Weekday Trips* 2006 Base 2030 w/o ST2** With ST2 ChangeTotal Person Trips 10,300,000 14,900,000 14,900,000Total Transit Trips 278,000 482,000 553,000 +74,000Transit Mode Share 2.7% 3.2% 3.7% 0.5%

Transit “Boardings” 359,000 661,000 814,000 +153,000 Transfer Rate 1.29 1.37 1.47 2.06

* Source: ST Making Connections, Appendix C, June 2007** Includes ST1 Regional Transit program.

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What is Your Plan?What is Your Plan?What is Your Plan?What is Your Plan?The question often posed to light rail opponents We suggest that this region continue to pursue the Rapid Bus Transit program that it has been pursuing for 30 years

Continue expanding the Transit/HOV lane system on freeway corridors with promised WSDOT management that has brought us to 8th in the nation for transit share

Eliminate the expensive rail transit overlay and dedicate the capital investment savings to cost-effective transit and road capacity enhancement

The following slide illustrates the proposed transit system alternative

The question often posed to light rail opponents We suggest that this region continue to pursue the Rapid Bus Transit program that it has been pursuing for 30 years

Continue expanding the Transit/HOV lane system on freeway corridors with promised WSDOT management that has brought us to 8th in the nation for transit share

Eliminate the expensive rail transit overlay and dedicate the capital investment savings to cost-effective transit and road capacity enhancement

The following slide illustrates the proposed transit system alternative

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Cost-effective Transit Cost-effective Transit PlanPlan

Cost-effective Transit Cost-effective Transit PlanPlan

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<–– This as proposedby Sound Transit for $144 Billion thru 2057to overlay existing Express Bus services

Or This to interconnectthe suburban region with a “regional” transitsystem that providesnew transit services forthose not served todayfor 1/5th the cost? ––>

Let us pursue a cost-effective transit addressto our job access needs

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In SummaryIn SummaryIn SummaryIn Summary Costs too muchCosts too much

Does too littleDoes too little

Does the wrong Does the wrong thingsthings

Costs too muchCosts too much

Does too littleDoes too little

Does the wrong Does the wrong thingsthings