buy -...

RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19 20 JUL 2018

Kotak Mahindra Bank BUY

HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters

Soft headline, solid fine print A one-time MTM hit (~Rs 2.1bn) and higher NPA provisioning (LLP +49% QoQ, PCR rose to 61%) capped KMB’s net earnings (down 9% QoQ, missing estimates by ~7%). The business remains healthy as ever, with broad based loan growth (+24% YoY), best in class NIMs (4.30%) and negligible net stress incl. SMA-II (97bps, down 6bps). Opex growth of merely 10% YoY (flat QoQ) despite Rs 300-400mn invested in 811 was praiseworthy. Though the differential rate offering comes at an upfront cost (Rs 12-13bn a year), it will help KMB to garner low cost deposits (esp. with interest rates rising). Rapid asset growth will (more than) compensate for this as KMB commands a higher share in lucrative lending spaces. Cross sell opportunities on the acquired customer base will also help. Fast growing subs will help KMB flower into a full service financial conglomerate. With best-in-class return ratios (core RoAA of 1.77% in FY20E),

premium valuations are justified. Maintain BUY with SOTP of Rs 1,378 (4.5x Mar-20 core ABV of Rs 238 + Rs 309 for subs). Highlights of the quarter Growth momentum for KMB continued in 1Q with

broad based growth of 24/4% YoY/QoQ (after clocking a 7% sequential growth in 4Q). This was despite the continuous subdued show in the business banking slice (flat QoQ). Growth was led by PL (+44% YoY), CV/CE (40% YoY) and Corp (+25YoY) loans). A well capitalized B/S, improving macro trends and a diversified portfolio, forces us to factor a 25% loan CAGR over FY18-20E.

After a commendable show in FY18, KMB’s CASA growth was muted in 1Q. Low cost deposits dipped ~2% QoQ led by 11% de-growth in CA deposits. SA deposits grew ~2% QoQ (after 12% QoQ in 4Q). With various digital initiatives, healthy customer additions (1.5mn/qtr) and differential rate offering we believe SA growth will resume in the coming quarters. We have factored SA CAGR of 35% over FY18-20E.

Financial Summary Standalone (Rs mn) 1QFY19 1QFY18 YoY (%) 4QFY18 QoQ (%) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Net Interest Income 25,829 22,456 15.0% 25,798 0.1% 81,261 95,317 115,598 138,685 PPOP 20,325 15,954 27.4% 20,180 0.7% 59,848 71,582 88,964 108,648 PAT 10,249 9,127 12.3% 11,241 -8.8% 34,115 40,843 50,223 62,580 EPS (Rs) 5.4 4.8 12.1% 5.9 -8.8% 18.5 21.4 26.4 32.8 Core ROAE (%) 13.2 13.2 13.2 14.3 Core ROAA (%) 1.68 1.72 1.73 1.77 Core Adj. BVPS (Rs) 136.0 175.0 207.2 237.6 P/E (x)# 64.6 50.6 40.4 31.6 P/ABV (x)# 8.80 6.20 5.14 4.37 Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research; Note: # adjusted for embedded value of subs.

INDUSTRY BANKS CMP (as on 19 Jul 2018) Rs 1,347 Target Price Rs 1,378 Nifty 10,957

Sensex 36,351

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg KMB IN

No. of Shares (mn) 1,906

MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 2,568/37,229

6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 2,580

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

52 Week high / low Rs 1,424/962

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 16.8 27.0 35.5

Relative (%) 11.2 24.7 21.8

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Promoters 30.03

FIs & Local MFs 8.78

FPIs 45.03

Public & Others 16.60 Source : BSE Darpin Shah [email protected] +91-22-6171-7328

Pranav Gupta [email protected] +91-22-6171-7337

Kaushik Utpat [email protected] +91-22-6639-3037

KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19

Page | 2

Asset quality continues to remain impeccable with GNPA jump of merely 2% QoQ (Rs 39bn; 2.17%). Slippages almost halved to Rs 3.2bn (i.e. 74bps vs. 144bps QoQ). With a sharp 440bps rise in PCR (60.8%), NNPAs dipped ~8% QoQ (15.3bn; 86bps). While the SMA II is up QoQ to 11bps, it remains one of the lowest in the industry.

With no restructured loans and lower exposures to stressed sectors, we have factored slippages of 1.05% FY18-20E. However, we have marginally raised our LLP assumptions (55bps vs 50bps earlier) given the bank’s cautious stance on business banking.

Overall opex was flat QoQ (+10% YoY) as the staff cost dipped ~6% QoQ (4Q included additional gratuity related costs of Rs 820mn). Other opex continues to rise (+5% QoQ), as KMB persists with its strategy of investing in the consumer business. As per the mgt, the bank spends ~Rs 3.5-4bn/year towards these initiatives. Additionally, the mgt aims to expand the branch network by 100 branches in FY19. Despite this

we believe oplev benefits should flow in over the next couple of years with sustained growth momentum and superior NIMs. Hence our Cost- Income ratio improves ~250bps over FY18-20E.

Though NIM has dipped from cyclical highs of 4.60% in 4QFY17, it remains healthy at ~4.3% (down 5bps sequentially). Calc. yields jumped sequentially, as the full impact of MCLR hike (in Feb) gets reflected. As interest rates firm up, the pressure on yields should ease and robust low cost deposits should cushion NIMs. However, our NIM assumptions remain conservative at ~4.25% over FY18-20E.

Subsidiaries: The AMC business continued its uptrend with healthy AUM and PAT growth. K-Sec reported a muted quarter with a ~9% drop in volumes and 3% dip in PAT. The other lending businesses (KMP and KMI) reported muted AUM growth and a dip in net earnings. Kotak Life reported steady earnings growth. The bank’s contribution in overall earnings inched up to ~65.1% from <63% in 4Q.

SOTP

Rs bn Per Share Rationale Kotak Mahindra Bank – Standalone 2,038 1,069 4.5x Mar-20 core ABV of Rs 238 Kotak Mahindra Prime - Car Finance 210 110 3.5x FY20E core NW Kotak Mahindra Investments – LAS 52 27 3.0x FY20E core NW Kotak Securities – Broking 132 69 20x FY20E Earnings Kotak Mahindra AMC - Asset Management 78 41 5% of FY20E AUM Kotak Life - Life Insurance 233 122 4.0xFY18 EV of Rs 58.24bn KMCC - Investment Banking 6 3 1.25x FY20E core NW Kotak Alternative Assets 5 3 7.5% of FY20E AUM Offshore Funds 18 9 5% of FY20E AUM Total Value of Subsidiaries 735 386 Less : 20% Holding Discount 147 77 Total SOTP Value 2,626 1,378 Current Value 2,568 1,347 Upside (%) 2.3 2.3 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research


Page | 3

Five Quarters At A Glance

Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

Rs mn 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 YoY Growth QoQ Growth Net Interest Income 22,456 23,127 23,937 25,798 25,829 15.0% 0.1% Non Interest Income 9,069 9,539 10,398 11,516 11,646 28.4% 1.1% Fee Income 8,050 8,100 8,290 10,100 9,890 22.9% -2.1% Operating Income 31,524 32,665 34,335 37,314 37,475 18.9% 0.4% Operating Expenses 15,571 15,417 16,135 17,134 17,150 10.1% 0.1% Pre provision Profits 15,954 17,248 18,201 20,180 20,325 27.4% 0.7% Provisions 2,037 2,165 2,128 3,069 4,696 130.5% 53.0%

NPA Provisions 1,928 2,055 1,698 1,749 2,600 34.9% 48.6% PBT 13,916 15,083 16,073 17,110 15,629 12.3% -8.7% Provision For Tax 4,789 5,140 5,541 5,870 5,380 12.3% -8.4% PAT 9,127 9,943 10,532 11,241 10,249 12.3% -8.8% Balance Sheet items/ratios Deposits (Rs bn) 1,635 1,657 1,808 1,926 1,897 16.0% -1.5%

CASA (%) 43.9 47.8 46.7 50.8 50.3 637 bps -50 bps Advances (Rs bn) 1,424 1,526 1,591 1,697 1,769 24.3% 4.2%

CV And CE (%) 8.0 8.0 8.3 9.0 9.1 102 bps 10 bps Agri Finance (%) 13.0 12.9 12.9 13.5 12.0 -103 bps -149 bps Mortgage Loans (%) 19.3 19.3 19.5 19.1 19.2 -7 bps 11 bps PL (%) 12.8 13.7 14.4 14.8 14.8 199 bps 1 bps Business Banking (%) 12.3 11.9 11.3 10.8 10.2 -207 bps -53 bps Corp Banking (%) 32.3 32.1 31.4 30.7 32.6 26 bps 189 bps Others (%) 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 -10 bps -9 bps

CD ratio (%) 87.1 92.1 88.0 88.1 93.2 618 bps 515 bps CAR (%) 19.2 19.4 18.7 18.2 18.3 -90 bps 10 bps

Tier I (%) 18.4 18.7 17.6 17.6 17.6 -80 bps 0 bps Profitability Calc. Yield On Advances (%) 9.99 9.65 9.67 9.55 9.62 -37 bps 7 bps Calc. Cost Of Funds (%) 5.33 5.22 5.29 5.20 5.25 -8 bps 5 bps NIM (%) 4.50 4.33 4.20 4.35 4.30 -20 bps -5 bps Cost-Income Ratio (%) 49.4 47.2 47.0 45.9 45.8 -363 bps -16 bps Tax Rate (%) 34.4 34.1 34.5 34.3 34.4 1 bps 11 bps Asset Quality Gross NPA (Rs bn) 37.3 38.1 37.5 38.3 39.0 4.6% 1.9% Net NPA (Rs bn) 17.8 19.2 17.3 16.7 15.3 -14.1% -8.3% Gross NPAs (%) 2.58 2.47 2.31 2.22 2.17 -41 bps -5 bps Net NPAs (%) 1.25 1.26 1.09 0.98 0.86 -39 bps -12 bps Coverage Ratio (%) 52.3 49.7 53.9 56.5 60.8 855 bps 436 bps Restructured Book (%) 0.06 0.04 0.04 - - -6 bps 0 bps SMA II (%) 0.21 0.16 0.19 0.04 0.11 -11 bps 6 bps

Growth was broad based led by PL (+44% YoY), CV/CE (40% YoY) and corp loans (25% YoY); Growth in business banking continued to be subdued

CASA grew ~33% YoY led by 51% rise in SA. On an avg basis, SA and CA grew by 59% & 24% YoY

YoY NIM dip was led by faster drop in YoA and flattish CoF; The avg. cost of SA was stable at 5.61%

Led by lower staff cost, as 1Q incl. gratuity cost of Rs 820mn; Continues to spend additional ~Rs 1bn towards customer acquisition and other initiatives

Slippages at Rs 3.2bn (0.7% ann. vs. 1.7% YoY and 1.44% QoQ)

Net impaired assets (NNPA + Restr +SMA II) at a mere 97bps (-6bps QoQ) remains the lowest amongst peers

Driven by loan growth of ~24% YoY and NIM of 4.3% (-20bps YoY)

Led by LLP and MTM provisions (Rs 2.1bn); KMB has not availed RBI dispensation


Page | 4

Standalone Advances Grew 24/4% YoY/QoQ Consol Advances Grew ~22% YoY

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research; Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Standalone Book Composition: Corporate Share Jumps Sequentially (%) 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19

CV/CE 5.4 5.5 5.7 6.3 6.6 7.3 7.5 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.3 9.0 9.1 Agri 14.7 15.3 14.6 15.2 13.9 13.7 12.8 13.9 13.0 12.9 12.9 13.5 12.0 Mortgage 20.0 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.5 19.1 19.2 PL 7.2 7.3 7.6 8.1 12.2 12.6 12.2 12.8 12.8 13.7 14.4 14.8 14.8

Bus. Banking 20.7 20.3 20.3 19.7 14.1 13.8 12.9 13.1 12.3 11.9 11.3 10.8 10.2

Corp 30.1 30.4 30.6 29.5 31.5 30.7 32.9 30.6 32.3 32.1 31.4 30.7 32.6 Others 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1

Consol. Book Composition (%) 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19

CV /CE 4.5 4.5 4.6 5.2 5.4 5.9 6.1 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.8 7.4 7.5 Agri 12.2 12.7 11.9 12.4 11.4 11.2 10.5 11.4 10.6 10.5 10.5 11.1 10.0 Auto 12.0 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.1 11.0 10.5 10.6 10.2 9.8 9.5 Mortgage 16.5 16.1 15.8 15.9 16.0 15.9 15.9 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.7 15.9 PL 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.7 10.0 10.3 10.0 10.4 10.4 11.1 11.7 12.2 12.3 Bus. Banking 17.1 16.8 16.6 16.1 11.6 11.3 10.5 10.7 10.0 9.6 9.2 8.9 8.5

Corp 27.8 27.9 28.3 27.6 29.1 28.7 30.5 28.9 29.9 30.1 29.7 29.3 31.0 Others 4.0 4.2 4.8 4.6 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.6 6.4 5.8 6.0 5.6 5.2 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Sequential loan growth of 4% (after 7 % in 4Q) was led by Corp (+10%), CV/CE (+5%), mortgage (+5%) and PL (+4%) Segments like Agri (-7%) and Business Banking (flat QoQ) were laggards The Bank continues to remain cautious in the Business banking segment On YoY Basis PL, CV/CE, Corp and Mortgages reported healthy growth Share of Corp loans jumped ~190bps QoQ KMP’s book was flat YoY and QoQ

569

609

646

662 1,

036

1,11

7 1,

153

1,18

7 1,

208

1,26

0 1,

293

1,36

1 1,

424

1,52

6 1,

591

1,69

7 1,

769

382

396

406

406

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KMB VYSB YoY (%) - RHSRs bn

771

814

861

886 1,25

51,

347

1,41

11,

448

1,47

01,

541

1,57

81,

671

1,75

51,

878

1,95

72,

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2,13

4

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406

406 - - - - - - - -

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KMP Book: Total Advances Grew ~11% YoY LAS Customer Assets Grow By ~19 YoY (2% QoQ)

Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research

Deposit Growth Continues, Up ~16% YoY CASA Grew 33% YoY Led By SA (+51%)

Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research; Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research Deposits Break-up : CASA Ratio Jumped 640bps YoY (-50bps QoQ) (%) 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 CA 14.9 16.5 15.0 16.8 15.6 15.6 15.2 17.6 17.0 15.5 14.3 16.7 15.1

SA 19.5 19.8 20.3 21.3 21.8 23.4 24.2 26.4 26.9 32.3 32.3 34.0 35.1 TD 65.7 63.8 64.7 61.9 62.6 61.0 60.6 56.0 49.3 52.2 53.3 49.2 49.7 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

KMP’s Car Loans grew ~11/1% YoY/QoQ and other advances dipped 19/5% YoY/QoQ Calc. NIMs dipped to 3.9% (stable QoQ) KMP plans to start 2W Loans KMI (LAS) AUM growth saw a growth of 19% YoY KMI saw a sequential PAT decline of ~49%, as 4Q included jump higher other income (+4.7x QoQ) SA growth was strong at 51/2% YoY/QoQ (after 12% rise in 4Q); CA dipped ~11% QoQ CASA ratio -50bps QoQ to 50.3% (+640bps YoY) KMB will continue its higher rate offerings in SA deposits TD sweep deposits form ~6.9% of total deposits vs. 6.2% QoQ and 6.8% YoY 67% of FDs are sourced digitally

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Total Loans Car Loans Total Loans YoY - RHS Car Loans YoY - RHS

Rs bn %

23.8

23

.6

30.2

32

.7

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40

.2

47.6

48

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.3

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Rs bn

614

681

731

749 1,

168

1,23

21,

309

1,38

61,

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1,41

01,

494

1,57

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NIM Healthy At 4.30%, -5bps QoQ Fee Growth of ~23% YoY (-2% QoQ)

Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research

Non-interest Income Break-up Rs bn 1Q

FY16 2Q

FY16 3Q

FY16 4Q

FY16 1Q

FY17 2Q

FY17 3Q

FY17 4Q

FY17 1Q

FY18 2Q

FY18 3Q

FY18 4Q

FY18 1Q

FY19 Fees 5.05 4.57 4.66 6.10 5.64 6.30 7.25 7.57 8.05 8.10 8.29 10.10 9.89 % Of loans 1.97 1.70 1.64 2.09 1.88 2.04 2.27 2.28 2.31 2.20 2.13 2.46 2.28

Total 59.24 61.57 72.22 68.19 73.32 83.11 91.02 100.30 90.70 95.40 104.00 115.10 116.50 % of Total inc 27.0 26.8 29.0 26.9 27.6 29.4 30.7 31.7 28.8 29.2 30.3 30.8 31.1

% of Avg. Assets 1.74 1.44 1.62 1.46 1.54 1.73 1.83 1.93 1.65 1.65 1.71 1.79 1.74

Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research

The reported margins down 5bps sequentially to 4.30% Avg. cost of SA stood at 5.61% flat QoQ Differential rate of SA leads to additional cost of Rs 12bn/year The mgt guides for bottoming of NIMs; however we factor largely stable margins Fee income stands at ~2.28% of loans vs. 2.46% QoQ

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Standalone Asset Quality Stable QoQ Consol Asset Quality: Subs Doing Well

Source : Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research Subs NNPA Well In control

Source : Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research

Standalone GNPAs stood at ~Rs 39bn, +2bps QoQ at 2.17% Slippages stood at Rs 3.2bn (0.7% vs. 1.4% annu.) The SMA-II book stood at a mere ~Rs 1.89bn (11bps vs. 4bps QoQ) We have marginally increased our LLP assumptions to ~55bps over FY18-20E given mgt’s cautious stance on business banking segment

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GNPA (LHS) NNPA (LHS)GNPA (%) NNPA (%)Rs bn %

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KMP KMI%


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PAT Contribution: Ramp Up In Profitability By Kotak AMC (%) 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 PAT Rs bn 5.2 9.4 9.5 10.6 10.7 12.0 12.7 14.0 13.5 14.4 16.2 17.9 15.7 KMB 36.8 60.4 67.2 66.0 69.5 67.2 69.5 69.5 67.8 69.0 64.8 62.8 65.1 KMP 23.0 13.5 13.3 12.3 11.2 10.8 10.5 9.5 9.8 10.4 9.1 8.9 8.8 Invest. Co. (LAS) 5.8 3.8 4.0 4.1 2.9 4.4 3.8 4.0 3.3 3.8 3.1 5.3 3.0 K Sec 13.0 8.3 5.8 4.8 5.6 7.9 6.7 8.6 9.3 8.2 9.5 7.5 8.3 Kotak AMC 3.9 2.4 0.4 2.4 1.8 0.6 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.6 2.3 2.2 3.2 KMCC (IB) 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.6 2.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.4 (0.1) 2.2 1.4 1.6 Kotak Life 12.8 5.1 6.3 7.3 6.7 5.2 5.4 7.2 7.6 6.9 6.0 6.4 7.4 International Sub. 4.8 3.4 2.8 2.1 1.2 2.6 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1

Investment Adv. - - (0.1) 0.5 1.0 0.1 (0.7) (0.9) (0.1) (0.1) 0.7 0.1 1.8 MI (0.6) 2.4 (0.4) (1.0) (2.2) 0.8 1.3 (1.1) (0.5) (1.7) 0.2 3.2 (1.4) Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 KMP: Muted Profitability And Growth Rs bn 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 Total Loans 197.3 200.1 218.5 222.6 222.0 233.1 234.7 251.2 276.4 283.7 288.0 280.2 279.1 YoY (%) 6.5 6.3 14.6 13.0 12.6 16.5 7.4 12.8 24.5 21.7 22.7 11.5 1.0 Car Loans 150.7 157.5 164.3 167.1 168.4 172.5 173.1 181.8 183.7 198.3 199.7 201.0 203.8 YoY (%) 12.3 13.0 15.4 13.5 11.8 9.5 5.3 8.8 9.1 15.0 15.4 10.6 10.9 % of total loans 76.4 78.7 75.2 75.0 75.8 74.0 73.8 72.4 66.5 69.9 69.3 71.8 73.0

NII 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 YoY (%) 8.8 4.4 12.3 (2.0) 3.0 4.2 6.5 7.3 12.4 11.7 8.7 5.7 (0.4) Calc. NIM (%) 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.1 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 Total Income 27.7 29.8 29.7 30.4 29.4 30.8 31.0 33.0 32.9 34.0 34.7 35.4 32.8 YoY (%) 3.7 7.2 10.8 (1.6) 6.1 3.4 4.4 8.6 11.9 10.4 11.9 7.3 (0.3) PBT 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.1 YoY (%) - 2.6 5.5 (7.8) - 1.5 5.2 1.0 10.9 15.7 11.3 20.2 5.4 PAT 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 YoY (%) (0.8) 1.6 5.0 (9.1) 0.8 2.4 5.6 2.3 10.0 15.4 11.3 20.3 5.3 NNPA (Rs mn) 986.4 800.5 874.0 890.5 954.8 979.1 657.0 904.4 995.2 1,163.3 1,152.0 1,036.7 1,088.4 NNPA (%) 0.50 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.43 0.42 0.28 0.36 0.36 0.41 0.40 0.37 0.39


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Kotak Sec Snapshot: PAT Up ~4% YoY (Down 3% QoQ) Rs mn. 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 K Sec Vol (bn) 78.13 75.93 64.81 74.03 76.72 73.29 87.43 104.34 109.83 124.08 150.26 158.39 143.73 Market Share (%) 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.7 Total Income 2,500 2,700 2,280 2,250 2,380 2,940 2,870 3,660 3,650 3,510 4,520 4,480 4,150 YoY (%) 12.1 20.5 2.2 (22.1) (4.8) 8.9 25.9 62.7 53.4 19.4 57.5 22.4 13.7 Yield (calc.) 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 PBT 1,020 1,200 830 750 920 1,440 1,250 1,820 1,870 1,770 2,310 2,010 1,960 YoY (%) (1.0) 20.0 (8.8) (49.0) (9.8) 20.0 50.6 142.7 103.3 22.9 84.8 10.4 4.8 PAT 670 780 550 510 600 960 850 1,210 1,250 1,180 1540 1,340 1,300 YoY (%) (1.5) 18.2 (8.3) (46.9) (10.4) 23.1 54.5 137.3 108.3 22.9 81.2 10.7 4.0 Kotak AMC Snapshot: Strong AUM And Profitability Growth Rs mn 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 AUM (Rs bn) 942 960 957 1,022 1,109 1,207 1,331 1,413 1,522 1,692 1,829 1,825 1,992 Debt (%) 41.0 39.0 42.5 38.3 41.1 42.9 44.7 43.1 44.2 41.6 39.2 36.8 40.0 Equity (%) 14.0 14.0 13.7 14.3 14.5 16.0 16.8 19.6 21.3 23.9 25.6 26.8 26.0 Alt assets (%) 6.0 6.0 6.0 11.1 10.3 9.0 8.2 5.1 4.3 3.6 3.0 2.7 3.0 Offshore Funds (%) 23.0 25.0 22.1 20.7 19.0 17.3 16.5 17.4 15.6 16.9 18.0 18.9 17.0 Insurance (%) 18.0 15.0 15.4 15.2 14.6 14.2 13.0 13.7 13.0 12.3 12.1 12.7 12.0 PMS (%) 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.0 PBT 210 240 130 320 290 110 240 200 210 340 570 580 770 YoY (%) - - (244.4) - 38.1 (54.2) 84.6 (37.5) (27.6) 209.1 137.5 190.0 266.7 PAT 200 230 40 250 190 70 160 130 150 230 380 390 510 YoY (%) - (2,400.0) (500.0) (238.9) (5.0) (69.6) 300.0 (48.0) (21.1) 228.6 137.5 200.0 240.0


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K M Investment (LAS) Financial Snapshot: Steady Growth And NIL NPAs Rs mn 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 Customer Assets 34,310 40,240 47,610 47,950 48,710 55,320 59,590 69,050 65,000 72,300 77,620 79,000 77,050 YoY (%) 44.0 70.6 57.6 46.7 42.0 37.5 25.2 44.0 33.4 30.7 30.3 14.4 18.5 NII 480 630 700 710 670 720 740 980 730 760 770 780 720 YoY (%) 60.0 61.5 59.1 42.0 39.6 14.3 5.7 38.0 9.0 5.6 4.1 1.3 (1.4) Calc. NIM (%) 5.7 6.8 6.4 5.9 5.5 5.5 5.2 6.1 4.4 4.4 4.1 4.0 3.7 Total Income 560 680 730 850 720 930 850 980 800 1,000 930 1,530 880 YoY (%) 55.6 44.7 55.3 19.7 28.6 36.8 16.4 15.3 11.1 7.5 9.4 53.0 10.0 PBT 460 550 600 750 610 760 710 83 690 840 770 1380 740 YoY (%) 76.9 44.7 62.2 31.6 32.6 38.2 18.3 (88.9) 13.1 10.5 8.5 66.3 7.2 PAT 300 360 390 500 400 530 480 560 450 550 500 950 480 YoY (%) 76.5 44.0 62.5 25.0 33.3 47.2 23.1 12.0 12.5 3.8 4.2 69.6 6.7 NNPA (Rs mn) 34.31 40.24 28.57 23.98 24.36 66.38 53.63 48.34 58.50 43.4 38.8 7.9 - NNPA (%) 0.10 0.10 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.12 0.09 0.07 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.01 -


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Change In Estimates

Rs mn FY19E FY20E

Old New Change Old New Change NII 115,371 115,598 0.2% 139,159.9 138,685 -0.3% PPOP 89,180 88,964 -0.2% 110,515.6 108,648 -1.7% PAT 52,744 50,223 -4.8% 65,958.4 62,580 -5.1% Adj. BVPS (Rs) 207.0 207.2 0.1% 237.6 237.6 0.0% Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

Peer Set Comparison

BANK Mcap (Rs bn)

CMP (Rs) Rating TP

(Rs) ABV (Rs) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) ROAE (%) ROAA (%)

FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E KMB # 2,568 1,347 BUY 1,378 175 207 238 50.6 40.4 31.6 6.20 5.14 4.37 13.2 13.2 14.3 1.72 1.73 1.77 ICICIBC # 1,679 261 BUY 377 105 126 150 16.4 10.8 7.4 1.64 1.26 0.95 7.3 9.5 9.8 0.81 1.00 1.17 AXSB 1,373 527 NEU 538 184 226 269 490.4 26.9 14.5 2.87 2.33 1.96 0.5 7.7 12.9 0.04 0.69 1.13 IIB 1,123 1,888 BUY 1,966 379 443 524 31.4 25.3 20.0 4.99 4.26 3.60 16.5 17.7 19.1 1.80 1.80 1.83 RBL 232 556 BUY 584 152 171 195 36.7 26.1 19.4 3.66 3.26 2.85 11.5 12.7 15.2 1.15 1.28 1.34 FB 169 86 NEU 102 54 60 68 19.3 15.4 11.3 1.59 1.43 1.27 8.3 8.7 11.0 0.69 0.73 0.85 CUB 113 169 BUY 231 55 66 77 19.0 16.3 14.0 3.05 2.57 2.20 15.3 15.4 15.4 1.57 1.60 1.57 KVB 71 98 BUY 156 61 70 78 20.6 14.4 7.9 1.62 1.40 1.26 6.1 7.8 13.6 0.54 0.70 1.14 DCBB 51 164 BUY 216 78 88 98 20.6 15.9 12.9 2.09 1.87 1.67 9.8 10.8 12.0 0.90 0.95 0.97 SBIN # 2,322 260 BUY 328 93 137 175 -21.9 13.7 6.3 1.72 1.17 0.91 -3.3 4.8 9.8 -0.21 0.29 0.60 BOB 277 120 BUY 182 75 108 138 -13.1 15.9 7.8 1.60 1.11 0.87 -6.1 4.5 8.6 -0.34 0.27 0.50 AUBANK 189 630 NEU 673 73 117 135 61.6 42.3 32.2 8.59 5.40 4.68 13.8 15.0 14.9 1.98 1.98 1.96

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research, # Adjusted for embedded value of subs


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Income Statement (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

Interest Earned 163,842 176,989 197,485 246,169 305,921

Interest Expended 94,838 95,728 102,168 130,571 167,236

Net Interest Income 69,004 81,261 95,317 115,598 138,685

Other Income 26,122 34,772 40,522 48,552 58,277

Fee Income (CEB) 17,644 21,207 27,645 34,357 42,739

Treasury Income 2,132 4,416 2,123 2,500 2,250

Total Income 95,126 116,033 135,839 164,150 196,961

Total Operating Exp 54,715 56,185 64,257 75,185 88,314

Employee Expense 28,170 27,685 29,502 33,431 38,353

PPOP 40,411 59,848 71,582 88,964 108,648

Provisions & Contingencies 9,174 8,367 9,400 12,521 13,396

Prov. For NPAs (Incl. Std Prov.) 7,478 7,004 7,375 10,771 11,896

PBT 31,237 51,481 62,182 76,443 95,252

Provision For Tax 10,339 17,366 21,339 26,220 32,671

PAT 20,898 34,115 40,843 50,223 62,580 Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research

Balance Sheet (Rs mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital 9,172 9,204 9,528 9,528 9,528

Reserves 230,419 266,956 365,288 410,473 468,575

Shareholders' Funds 239,591 276,161 374,817 420,002 478,104

Savings 294,947 415,039 655,292 901,027 1,198,365

Current 232,817 277,608 322,458 354,703 390,174

Term Deposit 858,666 881,611 948,683 1,170,614 1,446,867

Total Deposits 1,386,430 1,574,259 1,926,433 2,426,344 3,035,406

Borrowings 209,787 210,973 251,563 247,790 272,567

Other Liabilities 86,790 84,507 96,521 108,104 118,914

Total Liabilities 1,922,598 2,145,900 2,649,334 3,202,239 3,904,991

APPLICATION OF FUNDS Cash & Bank Balance 108,760 225,720 196,201 205,889 232,275

Investments 512,602 450,742 645,623 727,670 868,053

G-Secs 407,610 361,899 517,577 599,307 720,909

Advances 1,186,653 1,360,821 1,697,179 2,147,314 2,671,157

Fixed Assets 15,516 15,376 15,272 16,799 18,479

Other Assets 99,067 93,240 95,059 104,567 115,026

Total Assets 1,922,598 2,145,900 2,649,334 3,202,239 3,904,991 Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research


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Key Ratios FY16 FY17 FY18P FY19E FY20E

VALUATION RATIOS EPS (Rs) 11.4 18.5 21.4 26.4 32.8

Earnings Growth (%) 12.0 63.2 19.7 23.0 24.6

BVPS (Rs) 126.4 145.3 183.7 215.4 245.4

Core Adj. BVPS (Rs) 119.5 136.0 175.0 207.2 237.6

DPS (Rs) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8

ROAA (%) 1.41 1.68 1.72 1.73 1.77

ROAE (%) 11.0 13.2 12.5 12.6 13.9

P/E (x) 107.4 64.6 50.6 40.4 31.6

P/ABV (x) 10.24 8.80 6.20 5.14 4.37

P/PPOP (x) 30.6 20.7 17.9 14.4 11.8

Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1

PROFITABILITY Yield On Advances (%) 13.49 10.52 9.63 9.88 10.02

Yield On Investment (%) 8.65 7.64 7.17 7.25 7.25

Cost Of Funds (%) 7.69 5.66 5.16 5.38 5.59

Cost Of Deposits (%) 7.37 5.56 5.11 5.18 5.32

Core Spread (%) 5.80 4.86 4.48 4.50 4.43

NIM (%) 4.41 4.39 4.32 4.25 4.18

OPERATING EFFICIENCY Cost/Avg. Asset Ratio (%) 3.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5

Cost-Income Ratio (Ex. Treasury) 58.8 50.3 48.1 46.5 45.4

BALANCE SHEET STRUCTURE Loan Growth (%) 79.4 14.7 24.7 26.5 24.4

Deposit Growth (%) 85.2 13.5 22.4 26.0 25.1

C/D Ratio (%) 85.6 86.4 88.1 88.5 88.0

Equity/Assets (%) 12.5 12.9 14.1 13.1 12.2

Equity/Advances (%) 20.2 20.3 22.1 19.6 17.9

CASA (%) 38.1 44.0 50.8 51.8 52.3

Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR, %) 16.3 16.8 18.2 16.6 15.8

W/w Tier I CAR (%) 15.2 15.9 17.6 16.3 15.5

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

ASSET QUALITY Gross NPLs (Rs bn) 28.4 35.8 38.3 42.1 46.1

Net NPLs (Rs bn) 12.6 17.2 16.7 15.6 14.8

Gross NPLs (%) 2.36 2.59 2.22 1.96 1.73

Net NPLs (%) 1.06 1.26 0.98 0.73 0.56

Slippages (%) 3.10 1.41 1.22 1.05 1.05

Coverage Ratio (%) 55.5 52.0 56.5 62.9 67.8

Provision/Avg. Loans (%) 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5

ROAA TREE Net Interest Income 4.63% 3.99% 3.98% 3.95% 3.90%

Non Interest Income 1.75% 1.71% 1.69% 1.66% 1.64%

Treasury Income 0.14% 0.22% 0.09% 0.09% 0.06%

Operating Cost 3.67% 2.76% 2.68% 2.57% 2.49%

Provisions 0.62% 0.41% 0.39% 0.43% 0.38%

Provisions For NPAs 0.47% 0.30% 0.26% 0.33% 0.30%

Tax 0.69% 0.85% 0.89% 0.90% 0.92%

ROAA 1.40% 1.68% 1.70% 1.72% 1.76%

Leverage (x) 7.83 7.89 7.37 7.36 7.91

ROAE 10.97% 13.23% 12.55% 12.64% 13.94% Source: Bank, HDFC sec Inst Research


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RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

Date CMP Reco Target 10-Jul-17 965 BUY 1,121 21-Jul-17 979 BUY 1,109 9-Oct-17 1,037 BUY 1,179

26-Oct-17 1,016 BUY 1,179 9-Jan-18 1,003 BUY 1,213

19-Jan-18 1,061 BUY 1,212 10-Apr-18 1,114 BUY 1,291 1-May-18 1,210 BUY 1,371 6-Jul-18 1,365 BUY 1,371

20-Jul-18 1,347 BUY 1,378

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

Jul-1

7

Aug-

17

Sep-

17

Oct

-17

Nov

-17

Dec-

17

Jan-

18

Feb-

18

Mar

-18

Apr-

18

May

-18

Jun-

18

Jul -1

8

Kotak Mahindra Bank TP


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Disclosure: We, Darpin Shah, MBA, Pranav Gupta, ACA & Kaushik Utpat, ACA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest. Any holding in stock –No HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475. Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. 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No.: INH000002475, CIN - U67120MH2000PLC152193 Mutual Funds Investments are subject to market risk. Please read the offer and scheme related documents carefully before investing.

mailto:[email protected]


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HDFC securities Institutional Equities Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai - 400 013 Board : +91-22-6171 7330 www.hdfcsec.com

buy -...

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