california legislative analyst's (lao) report: proposition 98 under 2012-2013 budget

Upload: wmartin46

Post on 06-Apr-2018

221 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    1/44

    Fbrary 6, 2012

    mac Taylor

    Lislativ Analyst

    The 2012-13 Budget:

    Proposition 98Education Analysis

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    2/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    2 LegislativeAnalystsOfcewww.lao.ca.gov

    ContentsEectie Smmar ..................................................................................................3

    Itrodctio ..............................................................................................................5

    Oeriew ...................................................................................................................5

    Retrospectie ............................................................................................................7

    Adstmets to te Miimm Garatee .............................................................10

    Pamet Deerras ..................................................................................................14

    Edcatio Madates ...............................................................................................16

    Restrctrig K12 Fdig Sstem .....................................................................21

    CCC Categorica Feibiit .....................................................................................26

    Trasitioa Kidergarte ad Prescoo.............................................................30

    Paig Dow te Wa o Debt ...............................................................................34

    Goerors Backp Pa ........................................................................................39

    Smmar .................................................................................................................43

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    3/44

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    4/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    4 LegislativeAnalystsOfcewww.lao.ca.gov

    most benet rom a state-subsidized preschool program. Tis includes immediately adopting the

    Governors proposal not to initiate the K program, but preservingto the degree budgetary

    resources allowthe states current investment in providing preschool services.

    Mtiear Pa to Retire Edcatio Wa o Debt

    Governors Plan Is Solid Starting Point. Te Governors package contains a multiyear plan

    or retiring certain education obligations. We think building such a plan is a prudent practice.

    We recommend, however, the Legislature consider extending the payment period, scheduling out

    payments more evenly, designating settle-up unds be used or mandates or deerrals, and redirecting

    Quality Education Investment Act program savings (with rst call to retire Emergency Repair

    Program obligations). Although the Legislature will need to modiy this plan i conditions change,

    having a plan in place is critical to ensure progress in retiring such large outstanding obligations.

    Backup Bdget Pa

    wo Notable Concerns With Governors Back-up Plan. I the Governors tax measure is not

    approved by voters, the Governor proposes $5.4 billion in midyear trigger cuts. O this amount,

    $4.8 billion, or 90 percent, would come rom Proposition 98 cuts. o achieve these savings, the

    Governor begins unding K-14 debt service payments within Proposition 98. We have serious policy

    concerns with this proposal. Because debt service payments are volatile, the proposal would result

    in notably greater volatility or education programs. Absent a clear, compelling policy rationale, we

    question why the state would want to change its longstanding acility unding practices, particularly

    when the change results in a signicant cut in programmatic unding. Te Governors back-up plan

    also excludes the 2011-realignment related sales tax revenue rom the Proposition 98 calculations.

    We believe such treatment is risky. I the realignment revenues were to count toward the guarantee,

    the guarantee would increase roughly by $1.7 billion. As a result, the Governors back-up plan wouldneed to be modiedeither by suspending the guarantee or by unding the higher guarantee and

    implementing $1.7 billion in reductions in other areas o the budget.

    Consider Several Factors When Developing Back-up Plan. Most districts likely will base their

    local budgets on the states back-up plan. Given this, the Legislature needs to be very deliberate in

    developing such a plan. I the Legislature decided to enact midyear cuts, it would need to identiy

    a target level o savings, decide how best to allocate cuts among education and non-education

    programs, determine the specic K-14 cuts to impose, and design tools to help districts respond.

    Alternatively, the Legislature could adopt a plan that made cuts up ront and then provided midyear

    spending increases i the tax measure passed. It could designate the new revenues or one-time

    investments in 2012-13 and then build them into the base budget in 2013-14.Provide Districts More Flexibility Given All the Uncertainty Tey Face in 2012-13. We

    recommend the Legislature give districts some exibility tools (eective July 1) or the coming year.

    We oer a number o options, including removing additional categorical and mandate require-

    ments, shortening the school year, suspending the number o ull-time aculty that community

    colleges must employ, and allowing or a special post-election layo window.

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    5/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    www.lao.ca.govLegislativeAnalystsOfce 5

    InTRODuCTIOn

    under his basic plan. Te next ve main sections

    o the report analyze specic Governors proposals

    (relating to deerrals, mandates, restructuring o

    the K-12 unding model, CCC categorical exibility,

    and transitional kindergarten/preschool). We then

    turn to our assessment o the Governors multiyear

    plan to retire the wall o debt relating to existing

    education unding obligations, ollowed by our

    analysis o the Governors Proposition 98 back-up

    plan were his tax measure to ail. Te last section

    contains a summary table listing all the recommen-

    dations we make throughout the report.

    Proposition 98 monies support K-12 education,

    the Caliornia Community Colleges (CCC),

    preschool, and various other state education

    programs. In this report, we analyze the

    Governors Proposition 98 budget package. Te

    report begins with an overview o the Governors

    basic Proposition 98 budget plan, which assumes

    passage o his November 2012 ballot measure to

    raise certain taxes temporarily. Tis is ollowed by

    a retrospective on per-student unding over the

    last several years. We then have a section ocusing

    on the various adjustments the Governor would

    make to the Proposition 98 minimum guarantee

    OvERvIEWProposes $4.9Billion Increase in

    Proposition98 Funding. Te Governors basic

    budget plan increases total Proposition 98 unding

    by $4.9 billion, or 10 percent, between the current

    year and the budget year. As shown in Figure 1, the

    year-over-year increases in Proposition 98 General

    Fund or schools and community colleges are

    larger15 percent and 14 percent, respectively

    with local property tax revenues estimated to

    be virtually at. Te unding levels reected in

    Figure 1 assume voters approve the Governors

    November 2012 ballot measure to raise sales and

    Figure 1

    Proposition 98 Funding

    (Dollars in Millions)

    201112Revised

    201213Proposed

    Change From 201112

    Amount Percent

    K12 Education

    General Fund $29,329 $33,755 $4,426 15%

    Local property tax revenue 12,891 12,908 17

    Subtotals ($42,220) ($46,663) ($4,443) (11%)

    California Community Colleges

    General Fund $3,217 $3,683 $465 14%

    Local property tax revenue 2,107 2,101 -6

    Subtotals ($5,324) ($5,784) ($459) (9%)

    Other Agencies $83 $80 -$2 -3%

    Totals, Proposition 98 $47,627 $52,527 $4,900 10%

    General Fund $32,629 $37,518 $4,889 15%

    Local property tax revenue 14,998 15,009 11

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    6/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    6 LegislativeAnalystsOfcewww.lao.ca.gov

    income tax rates temporarily, with a portion o

    the associated revenue increase beneting K-14

    education.

    Major Spending Proposals. As shown in

    Figure 2, the year-to-year unding increase under

    the Governors plan would be dedicated primarilyto backlling one-time solutions rom last year

    and paying down existing K-14 deerrals. Te plan

    provides no cost-o-living adjustment (COLA)

    or any K-14 education program. (Providing the

    projected 3.17 percent COLA or K-14 programs

    would cost $1.8 billion.) It unds a slight increase

    in the projected overall K-12 student population

    (0.35 percent) or revenue limits and special

    education, a more sizable increase in the projected

    charter student population (15 percent), and a slight

    increase in preschool slots (0.16 percent). It unds

    no enrollment growth at the community colleges.Te Governors basic spending plan contains

    a ew program reductions and eliminations,

    including reductions in preschool unding, savings

    rom choosing not to initiate the ransitional

    Kindergarten (K) program, and the elimination

    o the Early Mental Health Initiative.

    Major Policy

    Proposals. Te Governors

    Proposition 98 budget

    package also contains a

    set o major proposals

    to restructure how the

    state allocates certain

    education unding.

    Most signicantly, the

    Governor proposes to

    replace the states existing

    K-12 unding system

    with a weighted studentormula. Te Governor

    also proposes to remove

    the specic require-

    ments associated with

    most remaining stand-

    alone CCC categorical

    programs. Additionally,

    or both schools and

    community colleges, the

    Governor proposes to

    replace the states existing

    mandate reimbursement

    system with a discre-

    tionary block grant.

    Figure 2

    Proposition 98 Spending Changes

    (In Millions)

    201112 Budget Act Spending $48,651

    Revenue limit adjustments -$588

    Home-to-School Transportation trigger reduction -248

    CCC trigger reductions -102

    K-12 revenue limit trigger reductions -80

    Preschool trigger reductions -6

    Other technical adjustments -1

    Total Changes $1,024

    201112 Revised Spending $47,627Technical Changes

    Backill one-time actions $2,440

    Make revenue limit technical adjustments 162

    Fund revenue limit growth 158

    Backll Proposition 63 mental health unding 99

    Adjust or revised CCC ee revenue estimate 97

    Make other technical adjustments -182

    Subtotal ($2,775)

    Policy Changes

    Pay down K-12 deerrals $2,151

    Pay down CCC deerrals 218

    Create K-12 mandate block grant 98

    Create CCC mandate block grant 12

    Do not initiate Transitional Kindergarten program -224

    Reduce preschool unding -58

    Swap one-time unds -57

    Eliminate Early Mental Health Initiative -15

    Subtotal ($2,125)

    Total Changes $4,900

    201213 Proposed Spending $52,527

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    7/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    www.lao.ca.govLegislativeAnalystsOfce 7

    RETROSPECTIvE

    special unds used to support education programs.

    (We exclude ongoing ederal unds, lottery unds, and

    various other local unds.) We ocus on program-

    matic unding in that we make various adjustmentsto reect when education programs are authorized

    and operated rather than the year in which the state

    makes cash payments or them. Te numbers in

    this section do not reect inationary adjustments.

    General ination over the period has been low and,

    given the particularly so employment situation, the

    cost to provide districts main operating expense

    teacher wageshas been relatively at over the period.

    Still, the reductions in spending are somewhat under-

    stated because o these inationary actors.

    Scoo Districts

    Several Actions aken by State and Federal

    Governments to Help School Districts Trough

    Great Recession. As shown in the top part o

    Figure 3, the state and ederal governments have

    In this section, we recap the major budget

    developments aecting school districts and

    community colleges over the last ve years, identiy

    the impact on per-student programmatic unding,and discuss the implications or school and college

    operations. We use 2007-08 as the base year

    because it marks the year immediately preceding

    the signicant downturn in state revenues and

    reects the last year in which the state unded

    COLAs and enrollment growth or K-12 and

    CCC programs. We extend comparisons through

    2012-13 to show how the Governors most recent

    budget proposal would aect education unding.

    Rather than ocusing solely on Proposition 98

    unding, we also include any extraordinary unding

    used to support Proposition 98 programs. Most

    signicantly, in addition to ongoing Proposition 98

    unding, we include Quality Education Investment

    Act (QEIA) unding, ederal one-time education

    unding, community college student ee revenue, and

    Figure 3

    K-12 Programmatic Funding

    2007-08Final

    2008-09Final

    2009-10Final

    2010-11Final

    2011-12Revised

    2012-13

    ProposedWith

    Trigger

    Total Programmatic Funding (In Millions)

    K-12 ongoing unding $48,883 $43,215 $40,717 $43,017 $42,254 $46,755 $42,390

    Payment deerrals 2,904 1,679 1,719 2,064 -2,151

    Settle-up payments 1,101 267

    Public Transportation Account 99 619

    Freed-up restricted reservesa 1,100 1,100

    Federal ARRA undinga 1,192 3,575 1,192

    Federal education jobs undinga 421 781

    Totals $48,982 $50,130 $47,070 $46,616 $45,099 $44,604 $42,390

    Per-Pupil Programmatic Funding (In Dollars)

    K-12 attendance 5,947,758 5,957,111 5,933,761 5,953,259 5,947,368 5,950,041 5,950,041

    Per-Pupil Funding $8,235 $8,415 $7,933 $7,830 $7,583 $7,496 $7,124

    Year-to-year percent change 2.2% -5.7% -1.3% -3.2% -1.1% -6.0%

    Percent change rom 2007-08 2.2 -3.7 -4.9 -7.9 -9.0 -13.5 a Reects LAO estimates o unds spent in each year.

    ARRA = American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    8/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    8 LegislativeAnalystsOfcewww.lao.ca.gov

    taken various actions over the last ve years to

    mitigate reductions in school district unding. (We

    discuss these changes in more detail in Update on

    School District Finance in California, 2011.)

    Deferrals. Since the beginning o the

    recession, the state has relied heavily on

    payment deerrals (discussed in more detail

    later in this report). Essentially, the state

    has avoided deeper programmatic cuts

    by authorizing school districts to support

    operations through short-term borrowing.

    Te state then has made late payments to

    school districts using unding rom the

    next scal year. Te state has increased

    its reliance on such borrowing over thelast our years, with 22 percent o K-12

    Proposition 98 payments (and 30 percent

    o K-12 Proposition 98 General Fund

    payments) now paid late.

    One-Time Federal Aid. Te ederal

    government provided states with two

    major sources o one-time aid to mitigate

    reductions in school unding. Te ederal

    government provided Caliornia with$6 billion in American Recovery and

    Reinvestment Act (ARRA) unding (that

    could be used in 2008-09 through 2010-11)

    and $1.2 billion in Federal Education Jobs

    and Medicaid Act unding (that could

    be used in 2010-11 and 2011-12). Both

    allocations were intended to allow school

    districts to retain school personnel, avoid

    teacher layos, and support school opera-

    tions that otherwise might be cut.

    Fund Swaps and Other Actions. Te

    state has taken a variety o other actions

    over the last ew years to help school

    districts through the recession, including

    using certain special unding sources to

    support school operations, reeing up

    school districts restricted reserves to be

    used or any educational purpose, and

    removing ongoing programmatic require-

    ments associated with many state-unded

    categorical programs.

    Despite Tese Eorts, Per-Pupil Funding Has

    Dropped. Despite these eorts, school districts

    programmatic per-pupil unding is lower today

    than ve years ago. As shown in the bottom part

    o Figure 3, per-pupil unding in 2011-12 was

    $7,583lower than the 2007-08 level o $8,235.

    Under the Governors 2012-13 budget proposal,

    per-pupil unding would drop urther. Assuming

    the Governors tax measure passes, per-pupilunding would drop slightly rom the current year

    (1.1 percent). I the tax measure ails, per-pupil

    unding under the Governors trigger plan

    would drop 6 percent rom the current year, with

    per-pupil unding more than $1,100 lower than the

    2007-08 level.

    School Operations Have Been Aected in

    Notable Ways. Tese drops in per-pupil unding

    have aected school operations in several ways.

    Te size o the teacher workorce has allen rom

    306,000 ull-time equivalent (FE) teachers in

    2007-08 to 272,000 FE teachers in 2010-11a

    drop o 34,000 FE teachers (11 percent). Because

    student attendance has been virtually at over

    this period, the student/teacher ratio has climbed

    rom 19.4 to 21.9. Te number o instructional

    days also has been aected. In 2007-08, virtually

    all school districts provided 180 instructional days

    whereas in 2010-11 one-third o districts providedless than 180 instructional days. In addition,

    many school districts have redirected unds away

    rom specialized programs and support services

    to general operations. In particular, many school

    districts report shiing unds away rom exed

    categorical programs (including proessional

    development, summer school, adult education, art

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    9/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    www.lao.ca.govLegislativeAnalystsOfce 9

    and music programs, acility maintenance, school

    libraries, and high school class size reduction).

    eacher salaries have been aected less than other

    aspects o school operations, with average teacher

    salaries increasing rom $65,800 in 2007-08 to

    $67,900 in 2010-11.

    Commit Coeges

    Eorts Also Made to Mitigate Programmatic

    Reductions at Community Colleges. Over the

    last ve years, programmatic reductions at the

    community colleges have been mitigated primarily

    by payment deerrals, one-time ederal aid, and

    increases in student ees. (We discuss these devel-

    opments in more detail in Te 2010-11 Budget:

    Higher Education, pages 12 to 13, and Te Budget

    Package: 2011-12 California Spending Plan, pages 29

    to 30.)

    Deferrals. As with school districts, the

    state has relied heavily on deerring

    payments to community colleges as a way

    o avoiding deeper programmatic cuts.

    Te state has relied on additional CCC

    deerrals in each o the last our years,

    with 17 percent o CCC Proposition 98

    payments (and 27 percent o CCC

    Proposition 98 General Fund payments)

    now paid late.

    One-Time Federal Aid. Community

    colleges also benetted rom one-time

    ederal aidreceiving a total o $39 million

    in ARRA unding.

    Additional Student Fee Revenue. Te statehas relied on increases in CCC student

    ees as another way to mitigate reductions

    in state unding. Te state raised student

    ees rom $20 per unit to $26 per unit in

    2009-10, to $36 per unit in 2011-12, and

    to $46 per unit eective summer 2012.

    (Tough the additional revenue raised

    rom recent ee increases has mitigated

    programmatic reductions, ee revenues

    have been alling short o budgeted expec-

    tations$14 million short in 2009-10 and

    an estimated $100 million short in 2011-12.Tese shortalls appear primarily due to

    a signicant increase in the number o

    students receiving ee waivers.)

    otal Programmatic Funding Has Dropped

    Over Period. As shown in the top part o

    Figure 4 (see next page), community colleges are

    operating with $650 million less total program-

    matic support in 2011-12 than in 2007-08. O

    this reduction, about $350 million reects cutsin apportionment unding (general purpose

    monies used to und enrollment and other campus

    costs), with the remaining $300 million reecting

    cuts in categorical unding (unding earmarked

    or specied purposes, such as student support

    services).

    CCC Receiving Less Funding Per Student, and

    Fewer Students Are Being Funded. Te bottom

    part o Figure 4 shows that budgeted unding per

    ull-time equivalent student (FES) in 2011-12 was

    $5,260lower than the 2007-08 level o $5,570.

    Tis reduction would have been even greater had

    it not been or the Legislatures decision in both

    2009-10 and 2011-12 to reduce colleges enrollment

    targets. In the current year, community colleges

    are unded to serve just over 1.1 million FES

    about 75,000 FES less than their unded level

    in 2010-11. Under the Governors proposal or

    2012-13, the number o unded FES would remainat compared with the current year, with per-FES

    unding increasing 2 percent (to $5,366).

    Community College Operations Have Been

    Aected in Notable Ways. Since the rst round o

    cuts was imposed on CCC in 2009-10, campuses

    have reduced considerably the level o services and

    programs they provide. Most notably, community

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    10/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    10 LegislativeAnalystsOfcewww.lao.ca.gov

    colleges oered almost 59,000 (14 percent) ewer

    course sections in 2010-11 compared with 2008-09.

    Based on preliminary inormation, we estimate

    an additional 20,000 (5 percent) ewer coursesections are being oered in 2011-12 compared with

    2010-11. Our review o systemwide CCC data nds

    that virtually all types o instruction and academic

    programs have been aected over the last ew years,

    with noncredit instruction and courses that are

    primarily recreational in nature (such as physicaleducation and ceramics) receiving a dispropor-

    tionate share o cuts.

    Figure 4

    Caliornia Community College (CCC) Programmatic Funding

    2007-08Final

    2008-09Final

    2009-10Final

    2010-11Revised

    2011-12Revised

    2012-13

    Proposed

    WithTriggers

    Total Programmatic Funding (In Millions)

    CCC ongoing unding $6,145 $5,995 $5,714 $5,892 $5,372 $5,832 $5,321

    Payment deerrals 340 163 129 129 -218

    Settle-up payments 32

    Federal ARRA unding 35 4

    Student ees 291 303 354 317 354 359 359

    One-time backfllsa 69

    Oil and mineral revenues 9 9 7 8 8 8 8

    Totals $6,514 $6,647 $6,273 $6,382 $5,864 $5,981 $5,688

    Per-FTES Programmatic Funding (In Dollars)

    CCC unded enrollment 1,169,606 1,205,741 1,168,364 1,190,221 1,114,654 1,114,654 1,049,654 b

    Per-FTES Funding $5,570 $5,513 $5,369 $5,362 $5,260 $5,366 $5,419

    Year-to-year percent change -1.0% -2.6% -0.1% -1.9% 2.0% 3.0%

    Percent change rom 2007-08 -1.0 -3.6 -3.7 -5.6 -3.7 -2.7 a Various unds designated to partially backfll local property tax shortall in 2007-08.b The adminstration has not indicated whether base cuts would be accompanied by a proportional reduction in CCCs unded enrollment level. Consistent with the Legislatures past

    actions, we assume a corresponding reduction in CCCs enrollment target. I enrollment were not reduced, per-FTES unding would drop to $5,103.

    ARRA = American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and FTES = Full-Time Equivalent Student.

    ADjuSTMEnTS TO ThE MInIMuM GuARAnTEEFigure 5 describes all o the major changes

    to the Proposition 98 minimum guarantee under

    the Governors 2012-13 budget proposal. In

    addition to typical baseline adjustments (including

    changes in General Fund revenues, per capita

    personal income, and average daily attendance),

    the Governors budget makes adjustments or

    a proposed change to the methodology used to

    rebench the Proposition 98 minimum guarantee,

    a recent court ruling on redevelopment agencies,

    and his proposed tax measure. (Te specic value

    o each o these adjustments is aected by a number

    o actors, including the order in which changes

    are implemented. Because we sequence some o the

    changes dierently, our numbers dier somewhat

    rom the Governors estimates.)

    Goerors Proposed Modicatios to

    Propositio 98 Cacatio

    Te Governors budget includes several changes

    that would modiy the way the Proposition 98

    minimum guarantee is calculated. Tese

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    11/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    www.lao.ca.govLegislativeAnalystsOfce 11

    modications, commonly known as rebenchings,

    have been adopted in prior years to prevent certain

    state actions rom having unintended consequences

    on the Proposition 98 minimum guarantee. For

    example, in 1993-94, the state required cities

    and counties to shi $2.6 billion in property taxrevenues to schools and community colleges to

    achieve state General Fund savings. o ensure

    that the shi in revenue provided state savings,

    the state rebenched the Proposition 98 calculation

    so the additional property tax revenue would not

    increase the minimum guarantee. Conversely, the

    state rebenched the Proposition 98 calculation in

    2004-05 such that various shis o property tax

    revenues rom schools to counties did not result in

    a reduction in total school unding. Te Governors

    budget: (1) changes the methodology or certain

    rebenchings made in 2011-12, (2) eliminates

    one rebenching, and (3) modies an anticipated

    second-year adjustment associated with the recent

    shi o student mental health responsibilities

    rom counties to schools. We discuss each o

    these proposed changes

    below. (In addition

    to the modicationsdiscussed in this section,

    the Governor proposes

    another modication

    to the Proposition 98

    calculation i his proposed

    ballot measure were to be

    rejected by voters. Tis

    modication is discussed

    later in this report.)

    Te 1986-87

    Rebenching Approach.

    Prior to 2011-12, the

    state had rebenched

    or a number o local

    property shis using a

    methodology known as

    the 1986-87 approach. Under this approach, when

    shiing property taxes to or away rom schools,

    the state rebenches the Proposition 98 calculation

    by determining the percent change in school

    property tax revenues due to the shi and then

    applying that same percent change back to schoolproperty tax revenues in 1986-87. Tis rebenching

    approach increases or decreases the states General

    Fund obligation in response to the property tax

    change assuming the shi had been implemented

    the year prior to the enactment o Proposition 98.

    While the local and state shares o Proposition 98

    unding are aected, the intent o the rebenching is

    to leave the minimum guarantee itsel unaected.

    Tis approach better reects the eect o a policy

    change had it been implemented prior to the

    inception o Proposition 98, but it oen results in

    unexpected scal eects. Using this approach, a

    $2 billion shi in property tax revenues to schools,

    or example, might only provide $1.5 billion

    General Fund savings. Tis is because the share

    o the Proposition 98 obligation covered by local

    Figure 5

    Major Adjustments to Proposition 98 Minimum Guarantee(In Millions)

    201112 Budget Act $48,651

    Update or changes in baseline revenues -$883

    Update or changes in other Proposition 98 actors a -131

    Change child care rebenching 298

    Change redevelopment agencies rebenching 267

    Change AB 3632 rebenching -197

    Eliminate gas tax rebenching -596

    Add Governors new revenues accrued to 2011-12 879

    201112 Revised $48,288b

    Add Governors new revenues attributed to 2012-13 $2,444

    Baseline growth 1,790

    Additional AB 3632 rebenching 5

    201213 Proposed $52,527

    a Includes updated estimates or revenues rom local property taxes, redevelopment agencies, and thesales tax on gasoline.

    b I the Governors tax measure were to ail, the 2011-12 minimum guarantee would drop to $47.4 billion.The state thereore would owe no settle-up or 2011-12 (spending would be $218 million above therevised minimum guarantee).

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    12/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    12 LegislativeAnalystsOfcewww.lao.ca.gov

    property taxes has changed over time. In 1986-87,

    local property tax revenues represented a smaller

    share o Proposition 98 unding than today. When

    the shi is applied to property tax revenues in

    1986-87, the shi thereore reduces the General

    Fund obligation by a smaller amount than onemight expect.

    Te Current-Year Rebenching Approach.

    In 2011-12, the state used a dierent rebenching

    approach. Under this approach, the state rebenched

    or the current value o the shi, thereby ensuring

    that it achieved an associated dollar-or-dollar

    impact. Tis new approach was used to rebench

    or one property tax shi and two program shis.

    Specically, it was used or the shi in property

    tax revenues rom redevelopment agencies to

    school districts and community colleges (resulting

    in $1.7 billion General Fund savings but no

    eect on the minimum guarantee), the removal

    o child care programs rom the Proposition 98

    calculation (resulting in a $1.1 billion reduction in

    the guarantee), and the shi o responsibility or

    student mental health services rom counties to

    school districts (resulting in a $222 million increase

    in the guarantee).Proposes to Change Rebenching Methodology.

    Te Governor proposes to recalculate these 2011-12

    adjustments using the 1986-87 approach. For the

    two program shis, the Governor would estimate

    the value o programs in 1986-87 as a proportion

    o total Proposition 98 unding that year and adjust

    the minimum guarantee by the same proportion in

    2011-12. As Figure 5 shows, applying this method

    to the child care and redevelopment rebenchings

    would increase the Proposition 98 minimum

    guarantee by $298 million and $267 million,

    respectively, whereas applying it to the shi o

    student mental health services would reduce the

    minimum guarantee by $197 million.

    Eliminates Rebenching or Gas ax Swap.

    In addition, the Governor proposes to eliminate

    existing provisions that require the state to rebench

    or the gas tax swap adopted by the Legislature

    in 2011, reducing the minimum guarantee by

    $596 million. Te gas tax swap eliminated the

    sales tax on gasoline (previously included in the

    Proposition 98 calculation) and replaced it withan increase in the excise tax on gasoline (excluded

    rom the Proposition 98 calculation). Absent a

    rebenching, the minimum guarantee would have

    decreased due to the loss o gas tax revenues.

    Completes Implementation o Student Mental

    Health Services Shi. Te Governors proposal

    also includes rebenching in 2012-13 to account or

    additional Proposition 98 unding being provided

    or student mental health services. In 2012-13,

    the Governor rebenches by $5 million to account

    or the completion o the student mental health

    services shi to schools.

    Recommend Consistency in Rebenching

    Approach. We have no major concerns with the

    Governors proposal to eliminate the rebenching

    or the gas tax swap. Given the state has not

    historically made adjustments to the minimum

    guarantee or increases or decreases in existing tax

    rates, we do not think a compelling reason existsor making an adjustment or this one specic tax

    change. Regarding the Governors other rebenching

    proposals, we are concerned by the lack o consis-

    tency in the rebenching approach across years. In

    particular, we are concerned that requent changes

    in the approach can result in arbitrary changes to

    the Proposition 98 minimum guarantee rom year

    to year and allow otherwise technical calculations

    to be used as a way to meet other objectives.

    Cages De to Recet Cort Rig

    o Redeeopmet Agecies

    wo Major Current-Year Actions Aecting

    Redevelopment Agencies and Schools. Te 2011-12

    budget package included two bills related to

    redevelopment agencies. Te rst bill eliminated the

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    13/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    www.lao.ca.govLegislativeAnalystsOfce 13

    statutory authority or redevelopment agencies to

    exist. Under this bill, successor agencies were estab-

    lished or the purpose o paying o any existing

    redevelopment debt with local property tax revenues

    that otherwise would have gone to the redevel-

    opment agencies. Any revenue in excess o what isrequired to pay o these debts is to be distributed

    to schools, community colleges, and other local

    governments (cities, counties, and special districts)

    pursuant to existing property tax allocation laws.

    Te second bill would have permitted a city or

    county that has a redevelopment agency to prevent

    that agencys elimination by making a remittance

    payment to the schools, re protection districts, and

    transit districts that overlap with the redevelopment

    agencys project areas. Te remittance payments and

    property taxes redirected rom dissolved redevel-

    opment agencies were estimated to provide a total o

    $1.7 billion to schools in 2011-12 and $400 million

    each year thereaer. Te state rebenched the

    Proposition 98 calculation to achieve $1.7 billion

    in state General Fund savings rom the remittance

    payments in 2011-12, with schools receiving no

    increase in their total Proposition 98 unding.

    Moving orward, the $400 million was to have beenin addition to Proposition 98 appropriations (no

    rebenching was to occur).

    Court Ruling Changes State Actions. Shortly

    aer the state enacted these bills, the Caliornia

    Redevelopment Association led a lawsuit against

    it, claiming that the bills violated the State

    Constitution. On December 29, 2011, the Caliornia

    Supreme Court ound the rst bill (which elimi-

    nated redevelopment agencies) constitutional

    but declared the second bill (which authorized

    the return o a redevelopment agency contingent

    upon a remittance payment) unconstitutional. As

    a result o the court rulings, all redevelopment

    agencies statewide were eliminated and no remit-

    tance payments will ow to schools. School

    districts and community colleges will receive

    additional property tax revenues as a result o the

    ruling, however, since revenues in excess o what

    is required to pay o redevelopment agency debts

    will be distributed pursuant to existing property

    tax allocation laws. Te administration currently

    estimates that school districts and communitycolleges will receive $1.1 billion annually in 2011-12

    and 2012-13 as a result o the elimination o

    redevelopment agencies.

    Governor Proposes Permanent Rebenching.

    Consistent with the treatment o the $1.7 billion

    in remittance payments that were adopted in the

    budget plan, the Governor proposes to rebench the

    Proposition 98 minimum guarantee or the shi

    o $1.1 billion in property tax revenues to schools

    and community colleges in 2011-12, providing state

    General Fund savings. Te Governor, however, also

    proposes to rebench the minimum guarantee or

    these revenues in 2012-13 and the next several years

    (as redevelopment-agency debt is retired), ensuring

    ongoing General Fund savings as a result o the

    elimination o redevelopment agencies.

    Goerors Ta Proposa

    Revenues Increase Minimum Guarantee$3.2 Billion Over wo Years. Te Governors

    Budget includes $6.9 billion in new revenues rom

    his ballot-measure proposal to increase income

    taxes on high-income earners and the sales tax

    rate by a hal cent. O the revenues coming rom

    his proposed tax increases, the Governor proposes

    to accrue $2.2 billion to 2011-12 and attribute

    $4.7 billion to 2012-13. As Figure 5 shows, the new

    revenues increase the minimum guarantee by almost

    $900 million, to $48.3 billion, in 2011-12. (Te

    Governors plan does not provide sucient unding

    to meet the higher 2011-12 Proposition 98 obligation.

    Instead, he creates a $661 million settle-up

    obligation, which would be paid in uture years.) In

    2012-13, the Governors proposed revenues increase

    the minimum guarantee by $2.4 billion.

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    14/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    14 LegislativeAnalystsOfcewww.lao.ca.gov

    Revenue Assumptions Have Signicant

    Eect on Minimum Guarantee. As discussed in

    our recent Overview of the Governors Budget, the

    administrations revenue estimates dier rom our

    oces November orecast. For 2012-13, our baseline

    General Fund revenue orecast is $3.2 billion lowerthan the administrations orecast. In addition, our

    estimate o the increase in General Fund revenues

    under the Governors tax proposal is $2.1 billion

    lower than the administrations estimate. I actual

    revenues were closer to our oces estimates, the

    minimum guarantee would be lower than the

    Governors estimates. Using our revenue estimates,

    the minimum guarantee would be $1.9 billion lower

    in 2012-13 ($50.7 billion rather than $52.5 billion).

    Given the signicant eect that revised revenuescould have on the Proposition 98 minimum

    guarantee, most major Proposition 98 decisions

    likely cannot be nalized until updated May revenue

    estimates are available.

    PAyMEnT DEFERRAlSTe Governors largest spending proposal is to

    retire some existing K-14 payment deerrals, whichhave grown signicantly in recent years. I the state

    has additional Proposition 98 resources to spend

    in 2012-13, we think the Governors prioritization

    o retiring some existing K-14 payment deerrals

    rather than providing K-14 program augmentations

    is reasonable.

    Backgrod

    Increased Reliance on Deerrals. Te state has

    relied heavily on deerring Proposition 98 payments

    as a way to achieve budgetary savings in dicult

    scal times. Te rst Proposition 98 deerrals were

    adopted in the middle o 2001-02, when $1.1 billion

    in K-12 payments were deerred rom late June

    2002 to early July 2002. Tis delay, while only a

    ew weeks, allowed the state to achieve one-time

    savings by reducing Proposition 98 General Fund

    spending in 2001-02 without making program-

    matic reductions. Schools continued to operate alarger program using cash reserves. In 2008-09,

    acing an even larger budgetary shortall, the state

    delayed $3.2 billion in Proposition 98 payments

    to achieve one-time General Fund savings. (o

    address the 2008-09 budget shortall, the state

    also made $2 billion in midyear Proposition 98

    programmatic reductions.) Te state adopted

    additional deerrals in 2009-10 ($1.8 billion),

    2010-11 ($1.8 billion), and 2011-12 ($2.2 billion)to achieve one-time savings and avoid urther

    programmatic reductions. In the current year, a

    total o $10.4 billion in Proposition 98 payments

    are being paid late (roughly 21 percent o total

    Proposition 98 support).

    Length o Deerrals Has Correspondingly

    Increased. As the state has continued its reliance

    on payment deerrals, the length o deerrals also

    has increased. Although the initial deerrals were

    only a ew weeks, the state now deers payments

    as long as nine months (with the longest deerral

    stretched rom January to October). Tese delays

    place a larger cash management burden on school

    districts. o access cash, districts can use existing

    budget reserves or special unds (although drawing

    down reserves also results in a loss o earned

    interest). I internal resources are insucient,

    districts can try to borrow rom private lenders,

    their County Oce o Education (COE), or theirCounty reasurer. I districts borrow rom other

    agencies, they are responsible or covering all trans-

    action and interest costs.

    Goerors Proposa

    Reduces Outstanding Deerrals by

    $2.4 Billion. Te Governors budget uses virtually

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    15/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    www.lao.ca.govLegislativeAnalystsOfce 15

    all o the Proposition 98 unding available or

    augmentations to retire $2.4 billion in existing K-14

    payment deerrals ($2.2 bil lion in K-12 payments,

    $218 million in CCC payments). As Figure 6 shows,

    these payments would reduce the states total

    Proposition 98 late payments rom $10.4 billionto $8.1 billion. Just as implementing payment

    deerrals provide the state with one-time General

    Fund savings, retiring payment deerrals results in

    a one-time General Fund cost. Tat is, the room

    within total Proposition 98 spending used or

    retiring deerrals would be available in subsequent

    years or other educational purposes (such as

    ongoing program augmentation or payments to

    retire additional deerrals).

    Reduces Deerrals in Most Cash-Strapped

    Months. For schools, the Governor proposes to pay

    down $1 billion in February deerrals currently paid

    in July and $1.2 billion in April and May deerrals

    currently paid in August. For community colleges,

    the proposal reduces deerrals each month o the

    January through June period, with somewhat

    larger paydowns in April

    and June. As Figure 7

    shows (see next page),the proposal generally

    reduces late payments in

    the months that currently

    have the largest share o

    payments deerred, thereby

    providing roughly the same

    amount o state unding

    each month rom February

    through June. (Te admin-

    istration also assumes

    the state will need to rely

    once again on intra-year

    deerrals to achieve savings

    in certain months when the

    state is cash poor, including

    the start o the scal year.)

    Recommed Adoptig Deerra Approac

    Prioritizing Deerral Pay Downs Reasonable,

    Particularly Given Uncertainty o Revenues. I

    the state has additional Proposition 98 resources to

    spend in 2012-13, we recommend the Legislature

    take the Governors approach and retire some

    existing K-14 payment deerrals rather than provide

    K-14 program augmentations. Tis would help

    mitigate the existing cash management problems

    that many school districts and community colleges

    ace as a result o the states late payments. In

    addition, given the uncertainty o the Governors

    revenue proposals, setting aside additional

    Proposition 98 unding rom the ballot measure or

    paying down deerrals could be less disruptive todistricts than earmarking the monies or program-

    matic unding increases. Tat is, i the Governors

    proposed ballot measure is rejected by voters, it will

    be easier or school districts and community colleges

    to retain existing short-term borrowing options than

    to make midyear programmatic reductions.

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    $12

    Proposition 98 Deferrals by Fiscal Year

    Figure 6

    01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13a

    (In Billions)

    a Reflects level of deferrals under Governors proposal.

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    16/44

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    17/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    www.lao.ca.govLegislativeAnalystsOfce 17

    new local requirements constitute mandates and

    how much to reimburse local agencies or those

    mandates. Over the last several years, we have

    highlighted serious aws with this system:

    Many mandates do not serve a compelling

    statewide purpose, such as preserving

    public health and saety.

    Even i some activities serve compelling

    purposes, districts might have strong

    existing local incentives to undertake the

    associated activities, such that the state

    receives little extra benet rom mandating

    the activity.

    Mandate costs can be much higher thananticipated since the Legislature does

    not know what costs CSM will deem

    reimbursable until aer new legislation

    takes eect and districts le claims.

    Te reimbursement rate or a particular

    mandate can vary signicantly among

    districts due in large part to dierences in

    record keeping and claim ling practices.

    Since districts are reimbursed based on

    their actual costs, they have limited incen-

    tives to perorm mandated activities as

    eciently as possible.

    Districts are reimbursed or mandated

    activities regardless o how well they

    perorm the activity or whether they are

    meeting its underlying policy objectives.

    Several Recent Eorts aken to Reduce K-14

    Mandate Costs. Given concerns with the cost

    o mandates, the Legislature has taken action in

    recent years to reduce these costs. Tese actions

    include suspending about a dozen education

    mandates. Additionally, as part o the 2010-11

    budget package, the Legislature adopted statutory

    changes to reduce the costs o the high school

    science graduation mandate and behavioral

    intervention plans mandate (two o the costliest

    mandates), as well as two truancy-related mandates.

    Te Legislature also requested that CSM reconsider

    the collective bargaining mandate since manyassociated requirements now also apply to private

    employers, meaning that they possibly could be no

    longer considered a higher level o service required

    o governmental agencies.

    Goerors Proposa

    Replace Existing K-14 Mandate System With

    Block Grant. Te Governors budget proposes

    two signicant changes or K-14 mandates. First,

    the proposal would eliminate more than hal

    o K-14 mandates, as shown in the top part o

    Figure 8 (see next page). Te mandates proposed

    or elimination include a number that already have

    been suspended in recent years, such as physical

    education reporting and pupil residency veri-

    cation. Second, the proposal would suspend nearly

    all o the remaining K-14 mandates and then place

    them into a new, discretionary mandate block

    grant. (Te Governor proposes to retain threecommunity college mandates and oset their costs

    with categorical ex unds.) Te budget provides

    $200 million ($178 million or schools, $22 million

    or community colleges) or the block grant.

    Charter schools (which currently are ineligible

    or mandate reimbursements) would be allowed

    to participate in the block grant. School districts,

    charter schools, and community colleges that

    choose to receive block grant unding would receive

    a uniorm per-student allocation. (We estimate

    that this rate would be roughly $30 or schools

    and $20 or community colleges.) As a condition

    o receiving block grant unding, recipients would

    be required to complete all applicable activities

    included in the block grant. Te administration

    indicates it will establish some auditing and/or

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    18/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    18 LegislativeAnalystsOfcewww.lao.ca.gov

    compliance monitoring process to ensure grant

    recipients undertake the required activities.

    Proposed Approac Addresses Ma

    Probems Wit Crret Madate Sstem

    Most Mandates Proposed or EliminationDo Not Serve Compelling Purpose. We generally

    agree that the mandates the Governor proposes

    to eliminate do not serve a compelling, statewide

    purpose. In act, most o the mandates that the

    proposal would eliminate are mandates that our

    oce has recommended eliminating in the past. In

    most cases, these mandates are not related to public

    health, saety, or accountability. Moreover, even

    though some o these mandates could arguably

    relate to one o these purposes, the specic

    mandated activity oen may not urther statewidegoals. For example, while the mandate requiring

    school districts to perorm physical perormance

    tests on students in certain grades may be related to

    the important goal o improving students physical

    activity, these tests do not supplement state physical

    Figure 8

    Governors Mandate Proposal

    Mandates Eliminated

    Active Suspended

    Absentee Ballotsa Grand Jury Proceedingsa

    Agency Fee Arrangementsa Health Benefts or Survivors o Peace Ofcers and Firefghtersa

    Mandate Reimbursement Processa Law Enorcement Sexual Harassment Traininga

    Threats Against Peace Ofcersa Integrated Waste Managementb

    Health Fees/Servicesb Law Enorcement Jurisdiction Agreementsb

    Reporting Improper Governmental Activitiesb Sexual Assault Response Proceduresb

    Caregiver Afdavits Student Records b

    Financial and Compliance Audits County Treasury Withdrawals

    Habitual Truants Physical Education Reports

    Law Enorcement Agency Notifcations Pupil Residency Verifcation

    Missing Children Reports Removal o Chemicals Notifcation o Truancy School Bus Saety I and II

    Notifcation to Teachers: Pupil Discipline Records Scoliosis Screening

    Notifcation to Teachers: Pupil Suspension or Expulsion I and II Pending Cost Estimate/Under Litigation

    Physical Perormance Tests Behavioral Intervention Plans

    Pupil Suspensions, Expulsions, Expulsion Appeals Graduation Requirements

    Mandates in Block Grant

    Caliornia State Teachers Retirement System Services Credita Dierential Pay and Reemployment

    Collective Bargaininga Immunization Records I and II

    Open Meetings/Brown Acta Intradistrict Attendance

    Prevailing Wagea Juvenile Court Notices II

    Sex Oenders: Disclosure Requirementsb Pupil Health Screenings

    AIDS Instruction and AIDS Prevention Instruction Pupil Promotion and Retention Annual Parent Notifcation Pupil Saety Notices

    Caliornia High School Exit Exam School Accountability Report Cards II and III

    Charter Schools I, II, and III School District Fiscal Accountability Reporting

    Comprehensive School Saety Plans School District Reorganization

    County Ofce o Education Fiscal Accountability Reporting The Stull Act

    Criminal Background Checks I and IIa Applies to both school districts and community colleges.b Applies only to community colleges. Unless otherwise indicated, remaining mandates apply only to school districts.

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    19/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    www.lao.ca.govLegislativeAnalystsOfce 19

    education requirements in any substantive way

    nor are the test results used to improve physical

    education practices. In addition, we nd that some

    o the mandates proposed or elimination overlap

    with requirements in ederal law or are in districts

    sel-interest to perorm. In these cases, even thoughthe ocial mandates would be eliminated under

    the Governors proposal, districts would likely still

    perorm the activities.

    Block Grant Approach Would Promote

    Efciency or Both the State and Districts. One

    o the major benets o the Governors approach

    to changing the current mandate system is that it

    would provide opportunities or both the state and

    districts to improve their operations and become

    more ecient. For the state, a uniorm per-pupil

    unding rate would address the uncertainty

    regarding how much mandates will cost each year

    and simpliy the budgeting process or these costs.

    It could also ree up sta time and resources at the

    CSM and the State Controllers Oce (which is

    responsible or processing and auditing mandate

    claims). For the districts, a standardized rate would

    also help them plan their budgets. More impor-

    tantly, though, it would provide an incentive ordistricts to perorm the activities in the block grant

    more eciently. Tis is because a district will want

    to reduce its costs to at or below the rate provided,

    given any unneeded dollar can be redirected to

    other educational purposes within the district.

    Proposed Funding Level Could Provide Strong

    Incentive or Districts to Participate . . . Given

    that under the Governors proposal districts would

    have the option o whether to participate in the

    block grant program and perorm the associated

    high-priority activities, it would be important

    to provide them with a strong incentive to do

    so. While it is dicult or a variety o reasons

    to determine precisely the right amount o

    unding or the block grant, the amount proposed

    by the Governor appears to provide reasonably

    strong incentives or districts to participate. For

    example, we estimate claims will total roughly

    $102 million or the activities included in the block

    grantroughly hal the amount proposed by the

    Governor. Tis amount, however, could understate

    the actual cost o perorming these activities sincemany districts do not bother to submit claims or

    many activities since the reimbursement process

    can be so administratively burdensome or them.

    Conversely, this could overstate the actual cost

    since currently little incentive exists or districts

    to perorm the activities as eciently as possible.

    On balance, the $200 million proposed by the

    Governor likely would be more than sucient to

    cover on a statewide basis the cost o the activities

    being perormed.

    . . . But Fiscal Incentives Could Vary

    Somewhat by District. Although the proposed

    unding level would likely exceed statewide costs,

    the scal eect or individual districts could

    vary somewhat. Tis is the case not only because

    districts may have dierent administrative and

    program cost structures but also because some o

    the activities included in the block grant do not

    apply to all districts. For instance, the block grantrequirement to review petitions and renewals or

    charter schools would only apply to districts that

    actually have charter schools in themroughly

    one-quarter o all school districts. Tis means

    that the uniorm per-pupil block grant rate could

    provide too much unding or some districts and

    too little unding or other districts. Te adminis-

    tration, however, indicates that it does not intend to

    modiy its proposal to address this issue. According

    to the administration, one o the main motivations

    or the proposal is to simpliy the process used to

    pay or these activities and setting dierent rates

    or dierent districts would complicate it, thereby

    undermining the intent o having a simplied new

    payment process. While we acknowledge that some

    districts could are dierently as a result o the

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    20/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    20 LegislativeAnalystsOfcewww.lao.ca.gov

    uniorm rate proposed by the Governor, we agree

    with the administration that keeping the block

    grant simple, straightorward, and transparent

    would be a signicant improvement over the

    current mandate system.

    Implementation Details on Funding andAccountability Mechanisms Still Need to Be

    Addressed. Although the administration has

    provided certain details on how it envisions the

    proposal working, at the time this analysis was

    prepared it had not yet submitted to the Legislature

    its proposed trailer bill language to make the

    necessary statutory changes to implement the plan.

    Tereore, there are still a number o unanswered

    questions regarding the plan, such as:

    What would happen i the number o

    pupils changes compared to what is

    budgeted? Would any resulting savings

    be swept i enrollment were lower than

    expected? Would additional unding

    be provided to address a deciency i

    enrollment were higher? Alternatively,

    would pro-rata increases or decreases be

    implemented i actual enrollment varied

    rom budgeted enrollment?

    For the community college block grant,

    would unding be provided to districts

    based on the number o students unded in

    the state budget or the number o students

    actually served by the district?

    How would unding levels be determined

    in the out-years? Would the per-pupil rate

    be set in statute or would it vary rom yearto year? Or, would the entire block grant

    amount grow by a COLA? Would new

    mandates change the block grant amount?

    What i some activities were removed rom

    the block grant (or example, i they were

    to be required in the uture by the ederal

    government)?

    What accountability measures would

    be implemented to ensure that districts

    are perorming the required activities?

    Are there existing school compliance

    mechanisms that could be used? Or would

    conducting random audits be the most

    ecient way to hold districts accountable

    without replicating the administrative

    burdens involved in the current mandate

    process?

    Although the administration has yet to address

    these issues in its proposal, these are relatively

    minor details that the Legislature could address

    during the coming months.

    Recommed Adoptig Oera Approac

    Bt Some Reemets needed

    Overall, we nd that the Governors proposal

    oers an attractive alternative to the currentinecient and burdensome mandate process. We

    thereore recommend that the Legislature adopt

    the Governors proposed concept (including setting

    a uniorm per-pupil unding rate and allowing

    charter schools to participate), but also (1) review

    the list o mandates to be eliminated or olded

    into the block grant to make sure that its highest

    priorities are preserved, and (2) convene a working

    group over the next ew months to address some

    o the details that the administration has not

    yet answered about unding and accountability

    mechanisms.

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    21/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    www.lao.ca.govLegislativeAnalystsOfce 21

    RESTRuCTuRInG K-12 FunDInG SySTEM

    Would Shi Funding Model to Weighted

    Student Formula. Te Governors elimination o

    certain categorical program requirements is just

    the rst step o a larger plan to restructure the waythe state allocates unding to local educational

    agencies (LEAs). In lieu o the current revenue

    limit and categorical program model, the Governor

    proposes that all LEAs receive an equal base

    per-pupil amount, plus additional general purpose

    unding intended to serve disadvantaged students.

    Specically, or every dollar LEAs would receive or

    a student, they would get an additional 37 cents i

    the student were poor and/or an English Learner

    (EL). (Tey would not receive double allotments

    or students who meet both criteria.) Moreover,

    any LEA with a large concentration o low-income

    and EL studentsat least hal o its overall

    enrollmentwould receive additional unding,

    with unding rates increasing as the concentration

    o these students increases. We estimate that

    about 60 percent o K-12 students are EL and/or

    receive ree or reduced price meals (the Governors

    proposed measure or economic disadvantage) androughly 60 percent o LEAs have large concentra-

    tions o disadvantaged students.

    Formula Would Be Phased In Over Five

    Years. Te Governor proposes to transition to the

    weighted student ormula over ve years, beginning

    in the budget year. In 2012-13, 20 percent o

    applicable K-12 unding would be allocated via

    the new ormula and 80 percent via the existing

    revenue limit and categorical ormulas. In 2013-14,

    the proportions would shi to 40 percent new

    ormula and 60 percent old ormulas, and so on,

    until all aected K-12 unding is distributed via the

    weighted student methodology in 2016-17.

    In Future, Would Include Fiscal Incentives

    or Strong Perormance. Te Governor indicates

    that he has plans to add a perormance component

    Te Governor proposes major changes to the

    way the state allocates unding to school districts and

    charter schools. (It is still unclear exactly how this

    proposal would apply to COEs.) Tese changes wouldbegin in 2012-13 and be phased in over a ve-year

    period. Because the states current K-12 unding

    system is complex, inequitable, and inecient, we

    recommend the Legislature adopt some version o

    the Governors proposal. While we think his specic

    proposal or a weighted student ormula has many

    strengths, we believe the Legislature should consider

    some important modications to ensure unda-

    mental state priorities are preserved. Below, we oer

    our assessment o the Governors proposal, as well

    as some potential modications and alternatives the

    Legislature could consider.

    Goerors Proposas

    Would Expand Flexibility by Eliminating

    Several Remaining Categorical Programs.

    In February 2009, the Legislature temporarily

    removed programmatic and spending require-

    ments or about 40 categorical programs and anassociated $4.7 billion. Tis exibility, currently

    scheduled to expire in 2014-15, allows districts

    to use unding originally restricted or these

    programs or any purpose. For 2012-13, the

    Governor proposes to extend this exibility to

    an additional seven programs and an associated

    $2.3 billion or which unds have thus ar remained

    restricted to their original purpose. Te Governor

    proposes to make these changes permanent,

    eventually repealing all programmatic statutes and

    budget provisions associated with these programs.

    Under his plan, the state would maintain existing

    categorical requirements or 13 other programs and

    an associated $4.9 billion. Figure 9 (see next page)

    lists how individual K-12 categorical programs

    would be treated under the Governors proposal.

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    22/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    22 LegislativeAnalystsOfcewww.lao.ca.gov

    to the weighted student ormula, perhaps as

    soon as 2013-14. While the administration is still

    developing the details o this plan, the intent is to

    provide scal incentives or districts that improve

    or sustain high academic perormance. Districts

    would be evaluated based on statewide tests, locallydeveloped assessments, and potentially some quali-

    tative measures.

    Approac to Restrctrig

    Moes i te Rigt Directio

    Current K-12 Funding System Deeply Flawed.

    As our oce has discussed numerous times in prior

    years, the states categorical program structure,

    as well as its broader K-12 unding system, has

    major shortcomings. First, little evidence exists

    that the vast majority o categorical programs

    Figure 9

    How Existing Categorical Programs Are Treated Under Governors Proposal

    Programs That Would Merge Into Weighted Student Formula

    Currently Flexible ($4.7 Billion)

    Adult education Oral health assessments

    Advanced placement grant programs Peer Assistance and Review

    Alternative credentialing /internship program Physical Education Block Grant

    Arts and Music Block Grant Principal training

    Bilingual teacher training assistance program Proessional Development Block Grant

    Caliornia High School Exit Exam supplemental instruction Proessional development or math and English

    Caliornia School Age Families Pupil Retention Block Grant

    Caliornia Technology Assistance Projects Reader services or blind teachers

    Certicated Sta Mentoring Regional Occupational Centers and Programs

    Charter Schools Categorical Block Grant School and Library Improvement Block Grant

    Civic Education School Saety Block Grant

    Community Based English Tutoring School Saety Competetive Grant

    Community Day School (extra hours) Specialized secondary program grants

    Deerred maintenance Student leadershipGited and Talented Education Summer school programs

    Grade 7-12 counseling Targeted Instructional Improvement Block Grant

    Instructional Materials Block Grant Teacher Credentialing Block Grant

    National Board certication incentive grants Teacher dismissal apportionment

    Ninth-Grade Class Size Reduction

    Newly Flexible as of 201213 ($2.3 Billion)

    Adults in correctional acilities Foster youth programs

    Agricultural vocational education K-3 Class Size Reduction

    Apprentice programs Partnership Academies

    Economic Impact Aid

    Programs That Would Remain Restricted

    Ater School Education and Saety Program County Oce scal oversight

    American Indian Early Education Programsa County Oce oversight (Williamslawsuit)a

    American Indian Education Centersa K-12 Internet Access

    Assessments Special education

    Charter school acility grants State Preschool

    Child nutrition Quality Education Investment Act

    Community Day Schoola These programs currently are subject to limited-term fexibility, but the Governors proposal would reinstate categorical restrictions.

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    23/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    www.lao.ca.govLegislativeAnalystsOfce 23

    are achieving their intended purposes. Tis is in

    part because programs are so rarely evaluated.

    In addition, separate categorical programs oen

    contain both overlapping and unique requirements.

    Tis magnies the diculty that districts have in

    oering cohesive services to students. It also blursaccountability and increases administrative burden.

    Moreover, having so many dierent categorical

    programs with somewhat dierent requirements

    creates a compliance-oriented system rather than

    a student-oriented system. In Caliornia, these

    problems are urther exacerbated by categorical

    programs that have antiquated unding ormulas

    that over time have become increasingly discon-

    nected rom local needs. For all these reasons,

    several research groups over the last decade have

    concluded that Caliornias K-12 nance system is

    overly complex, irrational, inequitable, inecient,

    and highly centralized. Tough the states current

    categorical exibility provisions have temporarily

    decentralized some decision making, the provisions

    have done little to make the K-12 unding systemmore rational, equitable, or ecient.

    Governors Restructuring Plan Has Several

    Strong Components . . . We credit the Governor

    or oering a comprehensive solution to the states

    problematic K-12 unding system. As highlighted

    in Figure 10, we believe the Governors plan has

    several strengths. First and oremost, it replaces the

    complexities and inequities o the current system

    with a ormula that is straightorward, rational,

    and linked to student need. Te ormula is designed

    Figure 10

    Strengths and Weaknesses of Governors Restructuring Approach

    Strengths

    9 Implements System That Is Simple, Transparent, and Rational. Lawmakers, districts, and the publicwould be able to understand and explain why a particular district receives a particular level o unding.

    9 Provides Additional Funding for Districts to Serve Needy Students. Acknowledges that manyEnglish Learner and low-income students require additional educational services.

    9 Provides Immediate Increase in Local Flexibility to Focus on Local Priorities. Provides districtslatitude to develop educational approaches and activities based on local circumstances. Immediatesuspension o categorical requirements assists districts in accommodating tight budgets and beginstransition to new system.

    9 Offers Reasonable Phase-In Period. Five-year phase in provides districts time to adjust to potentialchange in resources but achieves ull implementation o new ormula without extensive delay.

    9 Accomplishes Restructuring Within Existing Resources. Builds new system using current unding(unlike many reorm proposals that are predicated on adding billions o dollars in new revenues).

    Weaknesses

    9 Important State Priorities May Not Be Accomplished. Legislature may have important statewidepolicy goals that local districts decide not to pursue.

    9 Does Not Ensure Additional Funding Will Translate to Additional Services for DisadvantagedStudents. No requirement that districts spend extra unds on English Learners or low-income students.

    9 Overestimates Power of Existing Accountability System. Depends upon system that lacks sucientnuance or sanctions to guide districts in improving student outcomes.

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    24/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    24 LegislativeAnalystsOfcewww.lao.ca.gov

    to treat similar students similarly, eliminating

    unounded unding advantages and disadvantages.

    By removing more categorical restrictions, the new

    system also would provide districts with greater

    latitude to tailor program services to best meet

    local needs. Moreover, in contrast with manyunding reorm proposals that are predicated on a

    prolonged implementation period and the addition

    o substantial additional revenue, the Governors

    proposal uses existing resources to begin restruc-

    turing immediately and achieve ull implemen-

    tation without extensive delay. By beginning imple-

    mentation immediately, existing unding inequities

    are addressed right away rather than being allowed

    to persist many years into the uture.

    . . . But Devolving Virtually All Decision

    Making to Local Level Has Some Drawbacks.

    Figure 10 also notes some o the concerns we

    have with the Governors restructuring proposal.

    While shiing spending decisions rom the state

    to the local level has many benets, we believe the

    Governors proposal may go too ar. One o the

    primary reasons the state establishes categorical

    programs is that it believes districts may under-

    invest in certain services or student populationsunless the state guarantees those priorities through

    a dedicated source o unding. Because all unding

    distributed under the Governors weighted student

    ormula would be general purpose unds, the state

    would no longer be able to ensure that important

    state priorities would be accomplished. We are

    particularly concerned that districts would not be

    required to spend the additional unding generated

    by their disadvantaged student populations on

    services that benet those students. A district

    could, or example, choose to spend that additional

    unding on providing an across-the-board increase

    to teacher salaries rather than on supplemental

    services or EL and low-income students. Other

    specic activities and student groups that have

    traditionally been high priorities or the Legislature

    also no longer would be assured unding under the

    Governors plan.

    Current Accountability System Not Strong

    Enough to Ensure Desired Outcomes. Te

    Governor asserts that because districts are now

    outcome-oriented, categorical programs are nolonger necessary. Tat is, he believes sucient

    accountability now exists or districts to conduct

    all o the activities needed to produce positive

    student outcomes. According to this argument, all

    spending decisions can thereore be made at the

    local level. While we agree that stronger account-

    ability systems could allow or more local exibility,

    we are concerned the Governor is overestimating

    the power o the existing accountability system.

    Te existing K-12 accountability ramework is not

    nuanced enough to help districts clearly determine

    how they need to improve or help the state clearly

    identiy which school districts need intervention.

    For example, aggregate comparisons o how a

    districts EL subgroup perorms rom one year to

    the next are not particularly meaningul because

    the students classied as EL change every year

    due to immigration and redesignationtypically

    with the lower perormers entering and the higherperormers transitioning out. Furthermore, we

    are not convinced the sanctions included in the

    current K-12 intervention system are strong enough

    to orce struggling districts to signicantly change

    their practices. While the Governor is considering

    introducing new scal incentives to reward school

    perormance, he is not proposing to address the

    shortcomings o the existing accountability system.

    Recommed Adoptig

    Modied versio o Goerors Proposa

    We believe the Governors restructuring

    proposal oers a positive rst step towards

    improving the states problematic school unding

    system. As such, we recommend the Legislature

    adopt some version o his proposed changes,

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    25/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    www.lao.ca.govLegislativeAnalystsOfce 25

    with modications to ensure legislative priorities

    are met. Most importantly, we recommend the

    Legislature preserve some assurances that districts

    dedicate additional resources towards addressing

    the additional needs o their disadvantaged

    students. We also oer some other options theLegislature may want to consider in designing a

    new system or allocating K-12 unding.

    Recommend Maintaining Spending

    Requirements or Disadvantaged Pupils Until State

    Has More Robust Accountability System. Even i the

    Legislature were to adopt the Governors proposed

    approach to distributingK-12 unding, it could still

    retain or impose some requirements on how districts

    spendthose unds. At the very least, we recommend

    the Legislature require that districts spend the

    supplemental weighted portion o their allocations

    to provide supplemental services to the disadvan-

    taged students who generate the additional unds.

    We believe these requirements are needed to protect

    services or disadvantaged students, at least until

    the state has developed a more robust accountability

    system that can both guide districts and provide

    reliable inormation to the state. (Tis would include

    improvements such as vertically scaled assess-ments, value-added perormance measures based

    on student-level data, and meaningul perormance

    targets and sanctions.) Tese spending require-

    ments could be very broadsimilar to those o the

    existing ederal itle I and itle III programs and

    state Economic Impact Aid program which contain

    general requirements that unding and services or

    targeted student populations supplement and not

    supplant the basic educational program the district

    provides to all students. As with those programs, the

    state could monitor compliance with these require-

    ments. Additionally, compliance reviews rom the

    Caliornia Department o Education (CDE) and/or

    COEs could provide programmatic assistance or

    how districts might spend these additional resources

    most eectively to improve student outcomes.

    Legislature Could Further Modiy Proposal

    to Preserve Other Important Priorities. Te

    Legislature may wish to make additional modi-

    cations to the Governors proposal to adjust the

    weighting actors, preserve other Legislative prior-

    ities, or mitigate the transition to the new ormula.Below, we describe our options the Legislature

    could consider as it explores how best to restructure

    the current system.

    Consider Adopting Different Weights for

    Disadvantaged Students. Te Governors

    proposal provides notably more unding

    or districts that serve disadvantaged

    studentsparticularly those containing

    high concentrations o EL or low-incomestudents. While we believe this is a

    strength o the proposal, the Legislature

    could change the weight or disadvantaged

    students slightly and dedicate a bit more

    or a bit less unding towards the base per

    pupil amount.

    Consider Additional Weighting Factors.

    Te Legislature also could consider

    establishing additional unding weights toaccount or other cost drivers. For example,

    the ormula could account or grade-span

    cost dierences by providing a higher

    weight or high school students (who tend

    to be more expensive to educate than

    elementary students). Te ormula also

    could be adjusted to account or regional

    cost dierences. Adding new weighting

    actors, however, would increase the

    complexity o the new system.

    Consider Block Grant Approach in Lieu

    of Weighted Student Formula. I the

    Legislature is concerned that by providing

    virtually all monies to districts as general

    purpose unds some districts might opt

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    26/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    26 LegislativeAnalystsOfcewww.lao.ca.gov

    not to address essential state priorities, it

    could take a dierent approach to restruc-

    turing. Our oce has long recommended

    distributing unding via a ew block grants.

    Tese unding pots could have broad

    thematic objectives and requirements thatprovide districts with direction but also

    latitude as to how specically to structure

    local services. For example, the Legislature

    could design an Instructional Support

    Block Grant reserved or activities such as

    purchasing instructional materials, oering

    proessional development, providing

    student enrichment courses, and other

    similar services. Te Legislature also could

    design a block grant with unding reserved

    or providing supplemental services to

    disadvantaged students.

    Consider Extending Timeline for Phasing

    In New Formula. While we believe

    the Governors ve-year timerame is a

    reasonable period or transitioning to

    the new ormula, the Legislature could

    extend this by a couple o additional years

    to provide districts more time to adjust to

    potential changes in resources resulting

    rom the new allocation methodology.

    Fisca Efect o new Forma o Idiida

    Scoo Districts Wod var

    New Formula Begins Redistributing Funds

    Beginning in 2012-13. Te administration has yet

    to release its estimates or how much individual

    districts would receive under its proposed new

    ormula. Undoubtedly, any new allocation method-

    ology will result in unding changes or some

    districtsin some cases resulting in more revenue,

    in others less revenue. Under the Governors

    proposal, districts with high populations o EL

    and low-income students likely would benet rom

    the new ormula. However, districts that receive

    especially high allocations o categorical unds

    under the existing systemeither because o highparticipation rates or other historical actors

    could lose some o those scal benets under an

    updated ormula. wo o the options we oer above

    (changing the weighting actor used or the supple-

    mental grants and extending the implementation

    timeline) could help moderate some o the eects o

    these changes or districts. However, the Legislature

    must weigh the trade-os o protecting historical

    advantages or certain districts against the benets

    o allocating resources based on the needs and

    characteristics ocurrentstudent populations.

    CCC CATEGORICAl FlExIBIlITyTe Governor proposes to consolidate unding

    or all CCC categorical programs into one ex

    item. With ew exceptions, districts would have

    broad discretion in how they spend ex unding.

    Under the Governors plan, this new exibility is

    intended to be permanent, with implementation

    beginning in 2012-13. We agree that districts would

    benet rom more categorical exibility. We have

    concerns, however, that the Governors approach

    could result in local decisions that undermine the

    Legislatures original intent or these unds. We

    oer two alternative approaches or the Legislature

    to considerboth o which would enhance local

    exibility while still ensuring that categorical unds

    continue to be spent on support services to students

    and aculty.

    Backgrod

    Te state provides two primary types o

    unding to the CCC system: (1) apportionments,

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    27/44

  • 8/3/2019 California Legislative Analyst's (LAO) Report: Proposition 98 Under 2012-2013 Budget

    28/44

    2012-13 BudgeT

    28 LegislativeAnalystsOfcewww.lao.ca.gov

    to the administration, districts would have broad

    discretion to spend these monies on whatever they

    deem to be their local priorities.

    Some Flex-Item Funding Would Remain

    Restricted. Tough they would be in the ex item,

    three programs would eectively remain restricted.Specically, the Governor proposes provisional

    language that would ully protect unding or the

    Foster Care Education Program ($5.3 million) and

    elecommunications and echnology Services

    ($15.3 million). In addition, $12.6 million would

    continue to be appropriated or specied purposes

    in the Disabled Students Program. (A total o

    $69 million was appropriated or the program in

    the current year.)

    Goerors Pa Moes i Rigt Directio

    Current Categorical System Has Notable

    Drawbacks . . . Categorical programs are designed

    to ensure that districts address specic education

    priorities the state views as critical. However,

    CCCs categorical programslike those o other

    state agencieshave notable drawbacks. As we

    have pointed out in pastAnalyses, community

    college categorical programs tend to be highlyprescriptive in terms o how unds can be spent.

    Yet, Caliornias 112 colleges have dierent student

    populations and local resources, and thus the needs

    o students vary. By requiring districts to spend

    unds or a specic purpose, categorical programs

    limit local exibility to direct and combine unding

    in ways that address student needs most eectively

    and eciently. Categorical unds are also costly

    or districts and the CCC Chancellors Oce

    to administer. Districts must apply or, track,

    and monitor the appropriate use o categorical

    unds, and the Chancellors Oce must oversee

    districts compliance with numerous statutory and

    regulatory requirements. For all these reasons, we

    agree with the Governor that additional categorical

    reorm is needed.

    . . . But Governors Plan Provides Less

    Assurance Statewide Priorities Will Be Met.

    We have concerns, however, that the Governors

    proposal would provide the state with too little

    assurance that student and aculty support

    services would continue to be provided at thelocal level. Te Legislature originally created

    CCC categorical programs to ensure that certain

    statewide prioritiesmost notably, direct support

    services to studentsare addressed. Yet, under

    the Governors proposal, the Legislature would no

    longer have such an assurance. Tat is, categorical

    unds (with the exception o appropriations or

    the three programs noted above) would, in eect,

    become general purpose monies. Tough some

    districts might continue to spend exed monies

    or existing categorical program purposes, such

    as counseling and tutoring, other districts could

    choose to repurpose the unds in ways that would

    not necessarily benet students, such as providing

    a general salary increase to aculty and sta. o the

    extent some districts made such decisions, legis-

    lative intent in creating categorical programs could

    be undercut.

    Recommed Eacig Feibiit Wie

    Sti Preserig legisatie Priorities

    Rather than providing sweeping spending

    authority to districts, we recommend the

    Legislature consider two alternative models o

    categorical exibility.

    Expand Flex Item, but Retain Focus on

    Su