Cise.luiss.it

Total volatility, Chamber, 1948-2013

The third most volatile election in

Western Europe since 1945

48,7

40,5 39,136,7

30,0 29,626,7

23,9 23,3 23,2

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

Volatilità Totale (279 elezioni tra il 1945 e il 2013 in 16 paesi)

Losses (and gains…)

2008 2013 variation var. (alliance)

Il Popolo Della Liberta' 13,629,464 7,332,667 -46%

-42%Others (Berlusconi) 410,309 1,200,286 +193%

Lega Nord 3,024,543 1,390,156 -54%

Partito Democratico 12,095,306 8,644,187 -29%-27%

Others (Bersani) 1,591,154 1,403,416 -12%

Udc 2,050,229 608,199 -70%

+75%Scelta Civica Con Monti 2,824,001

Fli 159,332

Movimento 5 Stelle 8,689,168

Two-party index, Chamber, 1994-2013

Index of bipolarism (coalitions), Chamber, 1994-2013

Three parties in a four-point range

Party lists votes % votes %

Movimento 5 Stelle 8.689.168 25,6 7.285.648 23,8

Partito Democratico 8.644.187 25,4 8.399.991 27,4

Il Popolo Della Liberta' 7.332.667 21,6 6.829.135 22,3

Scelta Civica Con Monti 2.824.001 8,3 2.797.451 9,1

Lega Nord 1.390.156 4,1 1.328.555 4,3

Sinistra Ecologia Liberta' 1.089.442 3,2 912.347 3,0

Unione Di Centro 608.199 1,8

Others (Berlusconi) 1.200.286 3,5 1.248.096 4,0

Others (Bersani) 313.974 0,9 374.060 1,2

Others (Monti) 159.429 0,5

Others 1.751.014 5,1 1.442.262 4,8

Totale 34.002.523 30.617.545

House Senate

House – Senate, votes by lists , n. and %

N VOTI % VOTI N VOTI % VOTI

Coalizione Bersani 10.047.603 29,5 9.686.398 31,6

Coalizione Berlusconi 9.923.109 29,2 9.405.786 30,7

Movimento 5 Stelle 8.689.168 25,6 7.285.648 23,8

Coalizione Monti 3.591.629 10,6 2.797.451 9,1

Altri 1.751.014 5,1 1.442.262 4,8

Totale 34.002.523 30.617.545

CAMERA SENATO

Lega nord (1)

M5S (50)

Pd (40)

Pdl (17)

altri (2)

44

28

26

29

28

27

32

24

28

27

32

28

27

24

32

31

30

30

29

41

41

25

32

34

28

44

26

31

28

25

31

36

27

23

28

25

36

28

26

28

24

28

31

29

2225

39

32

35

30

29

30

34

26

29

37

24

36

30

40

41

2626

32

27

37

33

25

27

31

32

40

30

30

32

28

26

39

28

33

33

26

30

31

24

32

23

34 35

26 29

37

2726

27

23

32

30

27

30

38

31

32

33

26

27

30

25

37

38

29

Primo partito per provincia

c

Colors identify the largest party

in each province;Values are valid votes pcts [Source: Cataldi

and Emanuele 2013

Prima coalizione per Provincia

cdx (Berlusconi)

csx (Bersani)

M5S

altri

59

32

32

31

28

35

35

31

32

33

32

38

28

40

32

35

31

37

32

46

45

28

32

36

31

49

32

33

30

25

36

39

34

44

32

36

36

28

37

30

29

33

31

29

4133

42

38

38

30

32

30

34

33 29

32

41

31

38

33

40

44

3335

39

31

37

36

37

35

33

34

32

43

36

36

33

31

29

39

32

33

36

33

32

31

31

34

32

39

34

34

32

36

38

32

3036

41

32

43

32

35

33

35

36

34

35

40

43

29

Colors identify the largest

alliance in each province;Values are valid votes pcts [Source:

Cataldi and Emanuele 2013]

CSX,CDX e M5S votes by size of municipalities , Chamber, 2013, %

• 2005 electoral reform: proportional system with a majority premium

• In the Chamber: the list or coalition with the plurality of votes is guaranteed a minimum of 340 seats (54% of the Chamber). The remaining seats are proportionally distributed to the other lists (4% threshold) and coalitions (10% threshold). It’s a majority-assuring electoral system

• In the Senate: the distribution of seats takes place at the regional level (20 regions). In 17 regions the list or coalition with the plurality of votes is guaranteed 55% of the seats at stake in the region. The remaining seats are proportionally distributed to the other lists (8% threshold) and coalitions (20% threshold). It’s not a majority-assuring electoral system

THE CALDEROLI ELECTORAL LAW

Consequences of the electoral law

The battle for the senate:

seats at stake in each region

THE BATTLEGROUND REGIONS

IN THE SENATE ELECTION

Lombardia

Sicilia

Campania

Total

49

Winner

27

29 16

1425

Seats at stake:

Senate, % votes by regionCd Cs Mon M5S Altri

Piemonte 29,3 29,8 11,6 25,7 3,6Lombardia 37,6 29,7 10,7 17,4 4,6Veneto 32,8 25,0 11,0 24,6 6,6Friuli 28,8 29,3 12,3 25,4 4,2Liguria 24,1 33,0 9,3 30,3 3,3Emilia 21,3 42,1 8,9 23,0 4,7Toscana 21,3 43,4 8,1 22,7 4,5Umbria 25,3 37,6 8,3 25,3 3,5Marche 22,2 33,2 10,0 30,3 4,3Lazio 28,9 32,3 7,5 25,9 5,4Abruzzo 29,6 28,0 7,5 28,4 6,5Campania 37,4 29,0 8,2 20,7 4,7Puglia 34,4 28,4 9,1 24,1 4,0Basilicata 25,3 36,7 8,4 22,9 6,7Calabria 33,3 31,7 7,6 22,2 5,2Sicilia 33,4 27,3 5,9 29,5 3,9

Sardegna 25,5 31,7 6,5 28,7 7,6

Voti Italia 30,7 31,6 9,1 23,8 4,8

Senate, n. seats by regionCd Cs Mon M5S Altri

Piemonte 4 13 2 3 0Lombardia 27 11 4 7 0Veneto 14 4 2 4 0Friuli 1 4 1 1 0Liguria 1 5 1 1 0Emilia 4 13 1 4 0Toscana 3 10 1 4 0Umbria 1 4 1 1 0Marche 1 5 1 1 0Lazio 6 16 0 6 0Abruzzo 4 1 0 2 0Campania 16 6 2 5 0Puglia 11 4 1 4 0Basilicata 1 4 1 1 0Calabria 6 2 0 2 0Sicilia 14 5 0 6 0Sardegna 1 5 0 2 0

Premi ottenuti 7 10

Trentino A.A. 1 4 2 0 0

Valle d'Aosta 0 0 0 0 1

Molise 1 1 0 0 0

Estero 0 4 2 0 0

Totale seggi 117 121 22 54 1

The battleground regions:

POLLS in CAMPANIA

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

27-Dec 1-Jan 6-Jan 11-Jan 16-Jan 21-Jan 26-Jan 31-Jan

% o

f v

ote

s

Date of poll

LEFT RIGHT Linear (LEFT) Linear (RIGHT)

DATE SOC. LEFT RIGHT

28-Jan IPR 34 30

25-gen EUROMEDIA 33 30

21-Jan TECNE' 32 28

21-Jan QUORUM 34 32

21-Jan IPR 35 31

14-Jan IPR 35 32

11-Jan EUROMEDIA 34 32

2-Jan IPSOS 31 29

Younger and more educated reward M5S(source: IPSOS Public Affairs)

18-24 35% 19% 19% 8% 4%

25-34 29% 20% 22% 7% 5%

35-44 34% 20% 19% 9% 4%

45-54 32% 21% 20% 9% 4%

55-64 20% 32% 22% 8% 3%

65+ 10% 37% 27% 9% 4%

MoV. 5

StellePD PDL

Scelta

Civica /

Monti

Lega Nord

Whole sample 25,5% 25,4% 21,6% 8,3% 4,1%

by age group:

(N=11026 – pooled pre-election polls on 18-22 feb 2013)

University degree 29% 27% 15% 11% 2%

High school diploma 31% 25% 18% 8% 2%

Middle school 28% 23% 23% 8% 4%

Elementary 14% 29% 27% 8% 8%

by level of education:

MoV. 5

StellePD PDL

Scelta

Civica con

Monti

Lega Nord

Whole sample 25,5% 25,4% 21,6% 8,3% 4,1%

Entrepreneurs/professionals/managers 25% 23% 17% 13% 3%

Self-employed 39% 15% 20% 7% 3%

Clerks/teachers 31% 25% 15% 9% 5%

Manual workers 29% 20% 24% 7% 5%

Unemployed 33% 18% 25% 4% 4%

Students 37% 23% 11% 9% 1%

Housewives 21% 22% 29% 9% 5%

Retired 11% 37% 25% 9% 4%

Public sector 31% 29% 14% 9% 4%

Private sector 30% 21% 20% 9% 5%

by profession:

by sector:

Active professional sectors reward M5S(source: IPSOS Public Affairs)

(N=11026 – pooled pre-election polls on 18-22 feb 2013)

MoV. 5 Stelle

PD PDLScelta

Civica/ Monti

Lega

Nord

Whole sample: 25,5% 25,4% 21,6% 8,3% 4,1%

Media audience segmentation?(source: IPSOS Public Affairs)

(N=11026 – pooled pre-election polls on 18-22 feb 2013)

Only through TV 22% 25% 25% 10% 4%

Mostly through TV 24% 26% 23% 10% 4%

Mostly through newspapers 21% 30% 23% 7% 4%

Mostly through the Internet 45% 19% 11% 6% 3%

Mostly through radio 25% 19% 18% 10% 12%

by source of political information:

Women elected in Parliament, %

12.7

9.6 10.1

16.3

20.2

30.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1994 1996 2001 2006 2008 2013

Stato %Svezia 44,7

Finlandia 42,5

Islanda 39,7

Norvegia 39,6

Danimarca 39,1

Belgio 38,9

Paesi Bassi 37,8

Spagna 35,2

Germania 32,4

Nuova Zelanda 32,2

Italia 30,8

Australia 29,2

Portogallo 28,7

Austria 28,7

Canada 28,0

Svizzera 27,2

Francia 25,1

Regno Unito 22,6

Polonia 21,8

Israele 21,7

Grecia 21,0

Irlanda 19,0

USA 18,2

Giappone 11,3