climate change studies in mongolia

TA 7465TA 7465--RREG: Economics of Climate Change and Low Carbon RREG: Economics of Climate Change and Low Carbon Growth Strategies in Northeast AsiaGrowth Strategies in Northeast Asia

99--10 March 2010, 10 March 2010, Seoul, Republic of KoreaSeoul, Republic of Korea

Climate Change Studies in Climate Change Studies in MongoliaMongolia

Dr. DORJPUREV JARGALDr. DORJPUREV JARGALEEC MongoliaEEC Mongolia

ContentsContents

• Climate change programs and policies in Mongolia• Current Climate Change and projections • Climate Change Impacts• Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change • Greenhouse Gas Emissions • Mitigation Strategies to Climate Change • Conclusions

Climate change programs and policies in MongoliaClimate change programs and policies in Mongolia

• The Government of Mongolia signed the UNFCCC on June 12, 1992 at the Rio Summit and the Great Khural (Parliament) of Mongolia ratified it on September 30, 1993.

• The Government of Mongolia ratified/accessed the Kyoto Protocol on 15 December 1999

• The National Action Program on Climate Change (NAPCC) (approved on 19 July 2000 by the Government of Mongolia)

• Mongolia’s Initial National Communication (prepared within the GEF Climate Change Enabling Activity in 2001)

• Mongolia: Assessment Report on Climate Change 2009 (prepared by Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism with support from UNEP and UNDP)

• Mongolia’s Second National Communication (under preparation)

• National Action Program on Climate Change 2010 (under preparation)

TemperatureAnnual mean temperature (–9.0 0C)

– (+8.5 0C)

Winter (January) (-15 0C) – (-340C).

Summar (July) (+150C ) - (+300C)

90 95 100 105 110 115 120

45

50

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

90 95 100 105 110 115 120

45

50

25

50

75

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

PrecipitationMountainous regions 300-450 ììSteppe regions 150-300 ììGobi desert regions 50-150 ìì

Annual mean air temperature map, 0C.

Annual total Precipitation, mm

The climate of Mongolia is characterized by: long cold winter, short cool summer, low precipitation, high temperature variability and a relatively long duration of sunshine

Current Climate Change Current Climate Change

Source: P. Gomboluudev :Climate Change Projection, 2009

b. Annual precipitation amount, mm

-3 .0

-2 .0

-1 .0

0 .0

1 .0

2 .0

3 .0

1 9 4 0 1 9 4 5 1 9 5 0 1 9 5 5 1 9 6 0 1 9 6 5 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 5

The annual mean temperature of Mongolia increased by 2.14 0C during the last 70 years

The annual precipitation reduced by 7% from 1940

Current Climate Change Current Climate Change

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

194 0 1 945 19 50 195 5 1 960 19 65 197 0 1 975 19 80 1 98 5 19 90 19 95 2 00 0 20 05

a. Annual mean temperature, degree C

Climate change trend over Mongolia since 1940-2007 (difference from 1961-1990, degree)

Source: Mongolia: Assessment report on Climate Change 2009

Climate Change ProjectionClimate Change Projection

a) Summer mean temperature and b) summer mean precipitation time series by Global Climate Model HadCM3, 1900-2099

a) Winter mean temperature and b) winter mean precipitation time series by Global Climate Model HadCM3, 1900-2099


90 95 100 105 110 115 12

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50

90 95 100 105 110 115 120

45

50

90 95 100 105 110 115 120

45

50

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

Observed annual mean temperature, 1961-90

Simulated annual mean temperature, 1961-90

Projected annual mean temperature, 2071-2100

Hadley Center Regional Climate Model is performed by providing time dependent boundary condition from its Global Climate Model under SRES A2 scenario.

Present climate simulation is reasonable against observed climate. But there are little bit overestimations

It is projected annual mean temperature will be increased. For example area, where temperature is high than 60C, will be occupied almost whole country in the end of the century.

Climate Change ProjectionClimate Change Projection

Source: Source: P. Gomboluudev :Climate Change Projection, 2009

Climate Change ImpactsClimate Change Impacts

Climate Change will have a significant impact on Mongolianecosystem and economic sectors

1. Impacts on ecosystem• Landscape changes (during 1992-2002 area without grass increased by

46%, forest area decreased by 26%, water surface decreased by 38%)

• Water resources (2007 water inventory – 852 rivers, streams ( of total 5128) and 1181 lakes and ponds (of total 3747) have dried up)

• Snow cover (how cover plays important role on the environment: it provides insulation to protect the deep soil acts as water courses for wild and domestic animals, however, if there is heavy snowfall (zud) which results in no food being available for the animals)

• Permafrost (Source: P. Batiimaa and others :Climate Change impacts on water Resources , 2009)

Climate Change ImpactsClimate Change Impacts1. Impacts on biophysical environment • Desertification (Mongolia is one of the most arid countries in the world. Surface

land is very vulnerable to desertification. Desertification has become one of the extremely specific natural disasters in Mongolia. According to some data sources, 70% of grassland of Mongolian territory has been affected by decertification)

• Dust and sand storms (The dust blowing days were 18.3Annually between 1960-1969, but in 1980-1989 it has rise to 47.4 and in 2000-2007 it was reached to 57.1)

• Natural disaster (The figure shows the frequency of atmosphere related natural disasters that occurred in Mongolia over the past 20 years. The trend shows an increased frequency of severe weather conditions and natural disaster occurrences)


Climate Change ImpactsClimate Change Impacts2. Impacts on economic sectors

• Animal husbandry (The investigation shows that recent climate change effects on pastoral livestock negatively which leads to reduce of livestock productivity and impact on economic efficiency of animal husbandry. Negative impact of changing grassland and weather conditions, especially during harsh winter and spring seasons, will reduce productivity and quality, and would result to possible loss of livestock)

• Agriculture (The wheat harvesting rate between 1986-2007 was decreased by 0.28 centers/ha mostly because increase of number of extreme hot weather days especially in July)

• Forestry (Current climate change significantly impacts forest resources and growth. Forest area might decrease due to an expansion of the steppe and desert zones. Besides this ecological impact, human negative impacts such as forest fire, logging and livestock production have significantly intensified the process of forest transforming into steppe, especially during the last 100 years)

Adaptation to Climate ChangeAdaptation to Climate ChangeAdaptation strategies and approaches:• Strategic natural resources conservation• Maximize ways of strengthening animal bio-capacity to cope with changing

ecosystems• Strengthen capacities and opening opportunities for livelihood in currently

and potentially affected communities• Improve the economic sustainability of livestock production and the

ecological sustainability of natural resources used in livestock production focusing on improving feed availability to livestock

• Intensify production, supply and security of food and primary domestic commodities to be affordable and available to affected population

• Expand public information and forecasting to improve level of understanding of climate and weather extremes and emergency situations

Source:

GHG Emissions in COGHG Emissions in CO22--eq by gases for the period 1990eq by gases for the period 1990--20062006

Carbon dioxide is the most significant source of the greenhouse gases in Mongolia’s inventory with a share of 50.4 % of the total CO2-eq emissions in 2006 followed by methane, which comprises 41.8%. The remaining gases (N2O, HFCs) make up 7.8% of Mongolia’s GHG Emissions.

Greenhouse gas emissionsGreenhouse gas emissions

Contribution to total COContribution to total CO22--eq emissions by sector for 1990 and 2006 eq emissions by sector for 1990 and 2006

In 2006, the energy sector (including stationary energy, transport and fugitive emissions) was the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions comprising 65.4% of total GHG emissions in CO2-equivalent. The second largest source of GHG emissions was agriculture sector (41.4%). For Land use change and forestry sector, the total CO2 removals were 13.3% due to increase of the area of abandoned lands and reduce of newly cultivated land. Other relatively minor sources currently include emissions from industrial process and waste sector.


Contribution to methane emissions by sector for 1990 and 2006Contribution to methane emissions by sector for 1990 and 2006

The main contributor to the total methane emissions is the agriculture sector with about 92- 93% of the total methane emissions The second biggest contribution comes from the energy sector with about 5-6%, while all other sectors are contributing with less then 2%

in total.


Total Greenhouse gas emissions


In 1990, Mongolia’s net GHG emissions were 22532 thousand tones CO2-eq. and the net GHG emissions were reduced up to 14850 thousand tones in 1995. The reduction of net GHG emissions is mostly due to socio-economic slowdown during the transition period from socialism to market economy. But during this period the methane emissions are increased due to increase of livestock population. The HFCs are increased for the period 1990-2006 due to increase of refrigerators and vehicles with air conditions.

Per Capita EmissionsPer Capita Emissions

If compare with the other developed and developing countries, the total GHG emissions is small, but per capita and per GDP emissions is high. Mongolia’s per capita emissions were 6.0 tons /person, which is almost 2 times more than developing countries average. Per GDP CO2 emissions are 10 times more than world average


Mitigation strategies to Climate changeMitigation strategies to Climate changeMitigation options (The energy sector of Mongolia is the largest contributor to GHG emissions. The cold continentalclimate and use of coal contribute to high rate of emissions per capita and domestic production) Energy sector

• Increase Renewable options– Hydro Power Plants– Wind farms– PV and solar heating

• Efficiency improvement of Heating boilers– Efficiency improvement of existing HOB,– Install boilers new design with high efficiency– Converting steam boilers into small capacity thermal power plant

• Improvement of household stoves and furnaces– Modernization of existing household stoves and furnaces– Implementation of new design household stoves and furnaces– Change of fuels for household stoves and furnaces

• Improving of coal quality– Coal briquette– Application of effective mining technology and facilities, including

selective mining, dewatering system coal handling plant.• Nuclear Power Plants• CHP improvement options

– Efficiency improvement– Reduction of internal use

Mitigation strategies to Climate changeMitigation strategies to Climate change

• Building – Building insulation improvements– Building standards– Improvements of district heating

system in buildings– Lighting efficiency improvements

• Industry– Technology change (Dry process of

cement industry and others)– Motor efficiency improvements– Lighting efficiency improvements– Promotion of ESCO activities

• Transport– Vehicle fuel combustion efficiency

improvement – Improvements road conditions– Taxes on vehicle purchase,

registration, use and motor fuels, road and parking pricing

• Agriculture – To limit the increase of the total

number of livestock by increasing the productivity of each type of animals, especially cattle.

– To promote industrial livestock production enterprises

• Land use change and forestry – Natural regeneration– Plantation forestry – Agro-forestry– Bioelectricity

• Waste – Landfill methane recovery– Comprehensive waste management– Alternative waste management,

such as recycling

Non-energy sector

Implementation possibilities of Greenhouse Gas mitigation projects

• Mongolia is one of the potential host countries of CDM projects.Despite a small population and economy, Mongolia’s GHG emissions are relatively large, due mostly to climatic factors (cold winters). In particular, there is considerable scope to use renewable energy resources to replace fossil fuels, to reduce fossil fuel input by replacing outdated heating equipment with more efficient heatingequipment, and to increase energy efficiency in supply and demand sectors.

• CDM can play an important role in the sustainable development ofMongolia’s economy – CDM can help to reduce pollution, make the economy more competitive, create employment, and reduce poverty.Especially given Mongolia climatic conditions, the potential benefits to Mongolia from CDM can be relatively large.

• Recently the several projects are approved and registered as CDMprojects

Mitigation strategies to Climate changeMitigation strategies to Climate change

Summary of CDM projects in Mongolia Summary of CDM projects in Mongolia

Name of projectAnd project status

Type of projectAnd methodology

Expected CER, CO2e/yr

Project Situation

Host country and organization

CDM Project development participants

Taishir 11 MW Hydropower project (Registered)

Small scale Hydropower project

AMS-I.D.

29,600 Construction is finished

Mongolia, Ministry of Fuel and Energy (MFE)

Energy Research and Development Center (ERDC)Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co., Ltd.

Taishir 12 MWHydropower project (Registered)

Small scale Hydropower project

AMS-I.D.

30,000 Construction is finished

Mongolia, MFE

ERDC/MongoliaMitsubishi UFJ Securities Co., Ltd./ Japan

Salkhit Wind Farm, 50 kW(At validation)

Wind project

ACM2

182,000 Under starting of construction

Mongolia, NEWCOM

NEWCOM/ Carbon Resource Management

A retrofit programe for decentralized heating stations in Mongolia. (Registered)

Energy efficiency project

(AMS II.B.)

11,904 The project has been partially carried out

Mongolia, Ministry of Mature and Environment

Mongol Zuukh XXI ltd./MongoliaProkon Nord Energiesysteme GmbH, Leer/ Germany

• Climate change is already a fact in Mongolia. Temperature due to global warming in Mongolia has increased at least 2.14oC since 1940 and is projected to increase up to 5oC by end the 21st Century.

• Depending on the specific geographical and climatic conditions, Mongolia might be more heavily influenced by the global climate change. The impacts of climate change on the ecological system and the natural resources would be dramatic affecting directly almost all sectors of the national economy and all spheres of social life.

• Therefore, climate change response measures would help to adapt to climate change and to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in order to meet the requirements of the sustainable development strategies of Mongolia. Climate change will influence directly the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals of Mongolia.

• The Government of Mongolia pays close attention to climate change issues and has been undertaking actions to address challenges posed by climate change, in particular on adaptation and mitigation.

• Mongolia is active in establishing a Sub-regional cooperation among the North-east Asia Sub-region on matters of climate change and common development agenda.

Conclutions Conclutions

Thank you for attention

climate change studies in mongolia

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