Some Factors of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jajarkot

Presented by: Ashesh AcharyaDecember 10, 2013

1. IntroductionClimate Change Vulnerability

Assessment describes a diverse set of methods used to systematically integrate and examine impacts of climate change on humans and their physical and social surroundings (UNEP, 2004)

This study uses limited indicators of climate change vulnerability to observe the impacts of climate change

2. Objectives Understand the concept of climate change vulnerability

Use secondary data to derive Climate Change Vulnerability Index for Jajarkot district from 1981 to 2011

Explain spatial and temporal variation in population density

Explain temporal variation in Climate Change Vulnerability using Google earth maps

3. Concept base

Source: Fussel, 2010

4. Vulnerability scoping diagram

Polsky et al. 2007

5. Methodology

Demographic, climatic and, social

variables

Composite indices on sensitivity (SI),

exposure (EI), adaptive capacity

(AC)

Climate Change

Vulnerability Index (CCVI)

Demographic: Less than 6 year population, greater than 65 year population, population density (Population monograph 1971-2011, CBS, 2013)Climatic : Temperature , precipitation, natural disasters (NASA, 2013)Social: Population with higher education (Population monograph 1971-2011, CBS, 2013)

Index =(observed – minimum) / (maximum - minimum) (MOE,2010)

CCVI = SI+EI-AC

5. Methodology (continued)

Exposure Index

• Temperature anomalies for 1980s-2010s

• Natural disasters

Adaptive capacity

• Population with Higher education index

Sensitivity Index

• Population less than 6 index

• Population greater than 65 index

• Population density index

6. Components of sensitivity

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

6< index<65 index Pop Density index

Year

Inde

x va

lue

7. Components of vulnerability index

1960 1980 2000 20200.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

Sensitivity indexAdaptive capacity in-dexExposure index

Year

Inde

x va

lue

8. Temporal variation in VDC population density of Jajarkot District, Nepal

9. Temporal variation in Climate Change Vulnerability Index Jajarkot District, Nepal

10. DiscussionThe lack of health services, food and drinking water

shortages and poor sanitation makes children extremely vulnerable

 The increase in population density of Jajarkot is less compared to rise of density in Kathmandu hence the curve is downward sloping

VDCs at lower end of the district have higher increase in population compared to VDCs at upper end

 The Sensitivity Index is gradually decreasing from 0.136 in 1971 to 0.093 in 2011. This change is at a national context.

10. Discussion (continued)If higher and lower values of sensitivity factors are considered

only for Jajarkot district, there will be increase in sensitivity

 Women are more vulnerable compared to men as they have lesser literacy (49%) and also lack assets (CBS, 2011)

With rising temperature Jajarkot faces the risk of food and drinking water shortages, one of the principal problems of the district

People in Jajarkot have high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity making them vulnerable to climate change exposure

Women are more vulnerable compared to men as they lack asset as well as education

11. Conclusion Climate change vulnerability is context specific and temporal

Most of the vulnerability concepts have fallen short to encapsulate the concept of social capital that is determining factor of adaptive capacity

Vulnerability concepts mostly consider impacts of climate change to be predictable and measurable

Climate change impacts are erratic and unpredictable

Building resilience requires institutions, organizations and management that understand the human-environment interaction and linkages

Vulnerability assessment has limitations but it is necessary to identify vulnerable communities and ensure that policy measures are taken to establish their well-being

12. ReferencesCentral Bureau of Statistics Nepal (CBS), (1971-2011), Nepal population and housing census

District Disaster Preparedness and Response Plan (2011), District Natural Disaster Mitigation Committee, Jajarkot

Fussel, H.M. (2005). Vulnerability in Climate Change Research: A Comprehensive Conceptual Framework, Breslauer Symposium, University of California International and Area Studies, UC Berkeley

Folke, C. et al., (2002), Resilience and Sustainable Development: Building Adaptive Capacity in a World of Transformations, The Environmental Advisory Council to the Swedish Government

IPCC. (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report (Ch. 11). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

K.C.,B. et al. (2013), Developing a Climate Change vulnerability Index and forecasting future vulnerability for Nepal using NASA EOS Data, NASA DEVELOP National Program

Ministry of Environment (2010), Climate Change Vulnerability mapping For Nepal

Polsky, C., R. Neff, and B. Yarnal, 2007: Building comparable global change vulnerability assessments: The vulnerability scoping diagram. Global Environmental Change, 17, 472-485.

United Nations Environment Program. (2001). Climate Change Fact Sheet. UNEP, France. Retrieved from http:/ / www.unep.ch/resources/CFS/Sheet-1.2-30.2.pdf

United Nations Field Coordination Office (UNFCO), (2013), District profile Jajarkot