cochise college center for economic research economic review & outlook bisbee, arizona

Cochise College Center for Economic Research

COCHISE COLLEGECenter for Economic Research

Economic Review & OutlookBisbee, Arizona


https://www.blci.com/index.html


National Economy – Productivity

Real GDP Growth2005: 3.1%2006: 2.9%2007:

1st Qtr: 0.6%2nd Qtr: 3.8%3rd Qtr: 4.9%


National vs. State Productivity

Arizona’s GDP grew by 6.8% in 20063rd fastest growing state (economically) in the

nation


National Economy - InflationConsumer Price

Index2005: Up 3.4%2006: Up 3.2%2007: Up 2.6% (Jan-

Oct)Energy prices up

12.3% (SAAR) in first 10 months of 2007Petroleum-based

energy up 20.6%


National Economy – Interest RatesFederal Funds Rate

Cut by 75 basis points since September

Currently 4.5%, down from 5.25%

Mortgage Rates2005: 5.87%2006: 6.58% 2007 (Jan-Oct): 6.48%Oct 2007: 6.5%


The Local Economy


PopulationBisbee

2006 Population: 6,355Down 3.3% from 2005Up 4.4% since 2000Average 0.7% per year

since 2000

Cochise County2006 Population:

135,150Up 2.5% from 2005Up 14.8% since 2000Average 2.3% per year

since 2000


Population ProjectionsIn 2011

Bisbee: 6,712 (Avg. 1.1% per year)Cochise County: 152,107 (Avg. 2.3% per year)


Employment


Unemployment Rate2006U.S.: 4.6%Arizona: 4.1%Cochise County: 4.5%Bisbee: 5.0%

Jan-Oct 2007U.S.: 4.6%Arizona: 3.7%Cochise County: 4.1%Bisbee: 4.6%


Bisbee Labor Force and Jobs, 2002-2007

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

3,100

3,200

3,300

3,400

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Labor Force

Jobs


Bisbee’s Top 10 EmployersCochise County (830)Copper Queen Community Hospital (166)Bisbee Unified School District (155)City of Bisbee (112) Catholic Community Services (104)Bisbee Hospitality Group (65)Copper Queen Hotel (61) Safeway (46)Turquoise Valley Golf, Restaurant & RV (38) SEABHS (24)


Cochise County Job Growth: October Comparisons

-10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%

Mining and Construction Other Services

Financial Activities Federal Government

Manufacturing Information

Educational and Health Services Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

State and Local Government Professional and Business Services

Leisure and Hospitality


Average Annual Wage, 2006

$30,362

$34,417 $36,218$39,190

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

Bisbee Cochise County Arizona United States


Average Hourly Wage, 2006

$14.60

$16.55$17.41

$18.84

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

Bisbee Cochise County Arizona United States


Employment OutlookContinued slowing

of job growthRising

unemploymentMore job losses in

financial activities and construction countywide


Local Sales


Bisbee Sales Tax Revenue, FY 06-07


Bisbee Retail SalesJan-Sep 2007

$24.5 millionUp 8.5%Inflation-adjusted

growth of 6.1%Strong, double-

digit growth in the summer months (Jun-Aug)

Down 0.5% in Sep


Bisbee Restaurant & BarJan-Sep 2007

$5.5 millionDown 0.5%Inflation-adjusted

growth of -2.9%Sales down each

month from Jun 07 through Sep 07

Down 8.7% in Sep


Bisbee AccommodationJan-Sep 2007

$1.7 millionUp 38.2%Inflation-adjusted

growth of 35.8%Sales up every

month of 2007 except Aug (-7.6%)

Strongest growth in Jun (141%)

Up 21.4% in Sep


Sales OutlookSlowing of retail sales

Interest rate cuts in late 2007 may help in the short-run

Leveling off of accommodationContinued slowdown of restaurant & bar sales


Housing & Real Estate


Cochise County New SFR ConstructionJan-Jun 2007:

Permits were down 56.7% (from 619 to 268)

Source: Bright Future Business Consulting, Tucson, AZ


Bisbee New SFR Construction2006: 6 permits

Down from 10 in 2005Jan-Oct 2007: 6 permitsSeveral projects in various stages


MLS Home Sales, Jan-Nov 07Cochise County

Volume: 1,284 Down 9.2%

Median price: $192,300 Up 1.2%

Price per sq. ft.: $115.13 Down 3.7%

Sale price/asking price: 96.1% Down from 97.1%

DOM: 134 Up from 113

Current Inventory: 1,123 9 ½ -month supply

BisbeeVolume: 94

Down 16.1%Median price: $142,250

Up 12.2%Price per sq. ft.: $115.79

Down 1.8%Sale price/asking price:

94.3% Down from 95%

DOM: 150 Up from 123

Current Inventory: 136 15-month supply


Bisbee Housing Affordability Index


OutlookHome sales will continue to slowStabilization of pricesSeveral current and planned projects may

impact recent trends


Happy Holidays!

Happy December

cochise college center for economic research economic review & outlook bisbee, arizona

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