cochise college center for economic research economic review & outlook douglas, az

COCHISE COLLEGECOCHISE COLLEGECenter for Economic Center for Economic

ResearchResearch

Economic Review & OutlookEconomic Review & Outlook

Douglas, AZDouglas, AZ

Cochise College Center for Economic Research

United States United States

Real GDP GrowthReal GDP Growth2005: 3.1%2005: 3.1%2006: 2.9%2006: 2.9%2007:2007:

11stst Qtr: 0.6% Qtr: 0.6%22ndnd Qtr: 4.0% Qtr: 4.0%

GDP percent change based on chained 2000 dollars

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006


United States United States

Consumer Price Consumer Price IndexIndex 2005: Up 3.4%2005: Up 3.4% 2006: Up 3.2%2006: Up 3.2% 2007: 2.5% (Jan-Jul)2007: 2.5% (Jan-Jul)

Energy prices up Energy prices up 21.3% (SAAR) in first 21.3% (SAAR) in first 7 months of 20077 months of 2007 Petroleum-based Petroleum-based

energy up 36.9%energy up 36.9%

U.S. Inflation Rate (Change in CPI)

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007


Interest RatesInterest Rates

Federal Funds Rate, 2001-2007

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

Jan 0

1

Jul

Jan 0

2

Jul

Jan 0

3

Jul

Jan 0

4

Jul

Jan 0

5

Jul

Jan 0

6

Jul

Jan 0

7

Jul

Mortgage Rates, Jul 2006-2007

5.86

6.26.46.66.8

7

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Federal Funds RateFederal Funds Rate Increased 25 basis Increased 25 basis

points each meeting points each meeting from June 2004 to June from June 2004 to June 20062006

Currently 5.25%Currently 5.25%

Mortgage RatesMortgage Rates 2004: 5.84% 2004: 5.84% 2005: 5.87%2005: 5.87% 2006: 6.58% 2006: 6.58% Jul 2007: 6.77%Jul 2007: 6.77%


Real GDP Growth Rates Real GDP Growth Rates

0.02.04.06.08.0

2003 2004 2005 2006

ArizonaU.S.

Arizona’s GDP grew by 6.8% in 2006Arizona’s GDP grew by 6.8% in 2006 33rdrd fastest growing state (economically) in the nation fastest growing state (economically) in the nation


The Local EconomyThe Local Economy


PopulationPopulationPopulation Growth Rate Comparisons, 2002-2006

0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Douglas Cochise CountyArizona

DouglasDouglas 2006 Population: 17,6602006 Population: 17,660 Up 2.7% from 2005Up 2.7% from 2005 Up 23.4% since 2000Up 23.4% since 2000 Average 1.2% per year Average 1.2% per year

since 2001since 2001

Cochise CountyCochise County 2006 Population: 2006 Population:

135,150135,150 Up 2.5% from 2005Up 2.5% from 2005 Up 14.8% since 2000Up 14.8% since 2000 Average 2.3% per year Average 2.3% per year

since 2000since 2000

Population ProjectionsPopulation Projections

In 2011In 2011Douglas: 18,543 (Avg. 1% per year)Douglas: 18,543 (Avg. 1% per year)

Cochise County: 152,107 (Avg. 2.3% per Cochise County: 152,107 (Avg. 2.3% per year)year)

EmploymentEmployment


Unemployment RateUnemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate Comparisons, 2001-2007

2.5%

3.5%

4.5%

5.5%

6.5%

7.5%

8.5%

9.5%

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

United States ArizonaCochise County Douglas

20062006 U.S.: 4.6%U.S.: 4.6% Arizona: 4.1%Arizona: 4.1% Cochise County: 4.5%Cochise County: 4.5% Douglas: 7.1%Douglas: 7.1%

Jan-Jul 2007Jan-Jul 2007 U.S.: 4.7%U.S.: 4.7% Arizona: 3.8%Arizona: 3.8% Cochise County: 4.2%Cochise County: 4.2% Douglas: 6.6%Douglas: 6.6%


Douglas Employment, 2006Douglas Employment, 2006

Civilian Labor Force: 6,012Civilian Labor Force: 6,012 New Jobs: 126New Jobs: 126 Job Growth: 2.3%Job Growth: 2.3%

Top 5 Employers (FTE Employment)Top 5 Employers (FTE Employment) Arizona Department of Corrections (651)Arizona Department of Corrections (651) Douglas Unified School District (541)Douglas Unified School District (541) Douglas Border Patrol Station (471)Douglas Border Patrol Station (471) Wal-Mart (339)Wal-Mart (339) Cochise College (223)Cochise College (223) City of Douglas (222)City of Douglas (222)


Cochise County Non-Farm Cochise County Non-Farm EmploymentEmployment

2005200536,675 jobs 36,675 jobs 1,525 new jobs1,525 new jobsAnnual job Annual job

growth: 4.3%growth: 4.3%Goods Producing: Goods Producing:

4.5%4.5%Private Service-Private Service-

providing: 4.1%providing: 4.1%Government: Government:

4.6%4.6%

2006200637,700 jobs 37,700 jobs 1,025 new jobs1,025 new jobsAnnual job Annual job

growth: 2.8%growth: 2.8%Goods Producing: Goods Producing:

4.3%4.3%Private Service-Private Service-

providing: 3.4%providing: 3.4%Government: Government:

1.7%1.7%


Cochise County Job Cochise County Job Creation/Growth, 2005-2006Creation/Growth, 2005-2006

No. of New JobsNo. of New Jobs Professional & business Professional & business

services: 450services: 450 Government: 200 Government: 200 Trade, transportation & Trade, transportation &

utilities: 200utilities: 200 Mining & construction: 150Mining & construction: 150 Financial activities: 25Financial activities: 25 Leisure & hospitality: 25 Leisure & hospitality: 25 Other services: 25Other services: 25 Education and health Education and health

services: 0services: 0 Information: 0Information: 0 Manufacturing: -25Manufacturing: -25

Job Growth RateJob Growth Rate Professional & business Professional & business

services: 10.4% services: 10.4% Mining & construction: 5.7%Mining & construction: 5.7% Trade, transportation & Trade, transportation &

utilities: 3.1%utilities: 3.1% Financial activities: 2.5% Financial activities: 2.5% Other services: 2.5%Other services: 2.5% Government: 1.7%Government: 1.7% Leisure & hospitality: 0.6%Leisure & hospitality: 0.6% Education and health services: Education and health services:

0% 0% Information: 0%Information: 0% Manufacturing: -2.9% Manufacturing: -2.9%


County Job Growth Trends in County Job Growth Trends in 20072007

Slowed job growth each month since the Slowed job growth each month since the beginning of the yearbeginning of the year

Negative job growth in June (-0.3%) and Negative job growth in June (-0.3%) and July (-0.4%)July (-0.4%)

Job losses by industry (July comparisons)Job losses by industry (July comparisons) Other Services: -7.3%Other Services: -7.3% Financial Activities: -7.1%Financial Activities: -7.1% Information: -5.6%Information: -5.6% Federal Government: -4.0%Federal Government: -4.0% Construction: -2.7%Construction: -2.7% State and Local Government: -1.5%State and Local Government: -1.5% Leisure & Hospitality: -0.6%Leisure & Hospitality: -0.6%


Average Annual Wage Comparisons, Average Annual Wage Comparisons, 20062006

$24,746

$34,417 $36,218

$39,190

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

Douglas Cochise County Arizona United States


Average Hourly Wage Comparisons, Average Hourly Wage Comparisons, 20062006

$11.90

$16.55$17.41

$18.84

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

$16.00

$18.00

$20.00

Douglas Cochise County Arizona United States


Employment OutlookEmployment Outlook Continued slowing Continued slowing

of job growthof job growth Rising Rising

unemploymentunemployment More job losses in More job losses in

financial activities financial activities and construction and construction countywidecountywide

Local SalesLocal Sales

ConstructionConstruction

WholesaleTrade

WholesaleTrade

LodgingLodging

RestaurantandBar

RestaurantandBar

RetailSales

RetailSales

ManufacturingManufacturing


Douglas Sales Tax Revenue by Douglas Sales Tax Revenue by Industry GroupIndustry Group

Restaurant & Bar, 6.5%

Real Estate Rental & Leasing, 3.3%

Services, 1.2%

Other, 2.6%

Wholesale, 1.9%

Manufacturing, 1.7%

Communications & Utilities, 7.0%

Construction, 4.5%

Retail, 71.3%


Douglas Retail Sales Tax Douglas Retail Sales Tax RevenueRevenue

Retail Sales Tax Revenue

$3.0$3.1$3.2$3.3$3.4$3.5$3.6$3.7$3.8

FY 04-05 FY 05-06 FY 06-07

Mill

ions

FY 06-07FY 06-07 $3.6 million$3.6 million Up 5.2% (follows Up 5.2% (follows

strong growth of strong growth of 9.5% in 05-06) 9.5% in 05-06)

Real, inflation-Real, inflation-adjusted growth of adjusted growth of 2.6%2.6%


Douglas Restaurant & Bar Douglas Restaurant & Bar SalesSales

20062006 $13 million$13 million Up 8.3% Up 8.3% Real, inflation-Real, inflation-

adjusted growth of adjusted growth of 5.1%5.1%

Jan-May 2007Jan-May 2007 $5.3 million$5.3 million Down 0.5% Down 0.5% Real, inflation-Real, inflation-

adjusted growth of -adjusted growth of -3.2%3.2%

Restaurant & Bar, 2002-2006

$10.5

$11.5

$12.5

$13.5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Mill

ions


Sales OutlookSales Outlook

Slowing of retail salesSlowing of retail salesContinued slowdown of restaurant & bar Continued slowdown of restaurant & bar

salessalesPotential interest rate cuts in late 2007 may Potential interest rate cuts in late 2007 may

help along sales help along sales

Housing & Real EstateHousing & Real Estate


Cochise County New SFR Cochise County New SFR ConstructionConstruction

653

9261,046 1,108

900

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Jan-Jun 2007: Permits were down 56.7% (from Jan-Jun 2007: Permits were down 56.7% (from 619 to 268)619 to 268)


Douglas New SFR Douglas New SFR ConstructionConstruction

2006: 66 permits2006: 66 permitsDown 18.5% from 81 in 2005Down 18.5% from 81 in 2005Despite the decline, more permits were Despite the decline, more permits were

issued in 2006 than in 2002-2004 issued in 2006 than in 2002-2004 combined combined

Jan-Aug 2007: 30 permitsJan-Aug 2007: 30 permitsDown 33.3% from 45 in Jan-Aug 2006Down 33.3% from 45 in Jan-Aug 2006


MLS Home Sales, Jan-Aug 07MLS Home Sales, Jan-Aug 07

Cochise CountyCochise County 989 homes sold989 homes sold

Down 8.3% from last Down 8.3% from last yearyear

Median price: Median price: $195,000$195,000

Up 3.1% Up 3.1%

DouglasDouglas 72 homes sold72 homes sold

Up 26.3% from last Up 26.3% from last yearyear

Median price: Median price: $84,000$84,000

Down 12.5%Down 12.5%


Douglas Housing Affordability Douglas Housing Affordability IndexIndex

115.5

196.4

162.3

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2004 2005 2006


OutlookOutlook

Countywide home sales will continue Countywide home sales will continue to slowto slowIn Douglas, home sales should remain In Douglas, home sales should remain

steadysteadyContinued slowdown of construction Continued slowdown of construction

countywide, including Douglascountywide, including DouglasStabilization of prices at both the Stabilization of prices at both the

county and city levelcounty and city level


That’s All Folks!That’s All Folks!

cochise college center for economic research economic review & outlook douglas, az

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