Esmeralda Infante

Comm 303 Final Project

Bill Brantley

What will the communication technology landscape look like in 2021 A.D.?

“Communication works for those who work at it.” –John Powell

“To effectively communicate, we must realize that we are all different in the way we perceive the world and use this understanding as a guide to our communication with others.”-Anthony Robbins

Communication

Communication has come a long way since the beginning of time. The first use of communication technology dates way back to the 16th century when the Phoenicians first developed the alphabet. Since then communication technology has grown and evolved and has lead us to amazing discoveries. The future seems that everything will be via online. The internet is the future.

Communication in the future

Since it seems the internet is the future, in 2021 internet will be a whole different experience.

• There will be more privacy, and many more social media networks such as Facebook.

• Make video phone calls from your television. Sure ,there are cellphones and laptops but having the luxury of making a video call from your television set would be something entertaining and innovative.

• Increase of sales of E readers such as the Kindle, and tablets. Laptop sales are slowly declining. More people are buying tablets which make it easier for them to carry and travel with.

Communication in the future

One of the most used forms of communication technology used today would have to be social media networks such as Facebook. This type of communication I could see being around for the years to come. Its easy and fun to use. There was a similar network which was Myspace, but it got complicated and there was too many features, but Facebook is user friendly. This type of technology is our future, it is what people will use. Its online and it’s a great tool to keep in touch with friends and network with people.

It is known as the most rapidly successful company in human history, with almost a billion users and bringing in more than 2 billion dollars. It is the first internet company that offered privacy control which makes it so popular ( Forbes.com).

Facebook

The umbrella perspective is such a great example to use for social media network such as Facebook. The umbrella perspective is made up of five factors:

• Social system

• Organizational infrastructure

• Hardware

• Software

• Individual user

Facebook has all these five factors. The social system would be al the social aspects such as economic, and all the media systems involved. The organizational infrastructure would be the people behind the scenes such as the creators of Facebook, and people who distribute it. The hardware would be the communication technology itself. The software would be the messages and the content delivered via Facebook. The individual users would be us. The ones who make Facebook what it is: a social media network.

The Umbrella Perspective

Diffusion of an innovation occurs through a five–step process. This process is a type of decision-making. It occurs through a series of communication channels over a period of time among the members of a similar social system .Rogers categorizes the five stages (steps) as: awareness, interest, evaluation, trial, and adoption. An individual might reject an innovation at any time during or after the adoption process. In later editions of the Diffusion of Innovations Rogers changes the terminology of the five stages to: knowledge, persuasion, decision, implementation, and confirmation. However the descriptions of the categories have remained similar throughout the editions ( wikepedia.com)

Rogers Diffusion of Innovations

Knowledge

In this stage the individual is first exposed to an innovation but lacks information about the innovation. During this stage of the process the individual has not been inspired to find more information about the innovation.

PersuasionIn this stage the individual is interested in the innovation and actively seeks information/detail about the innovation.

Decision

In this stage the individual takes the concept of the change and weighs the advantages/disadvantages of using the innovation and decides whether to adopt or reject the innovation. Due to the individualistic nature of this stage Rogers notes that it is the most difficult stage to acquire empirical evidence.

Implementation

In this stage the individual employs the innovation to a varying degree depending on the situation. During this stage the individual determines the usefulness of the innovation and may search for further information about it.

Confirmation

Although the name of this stage may be misleading, in this stage the individual finalizes his/her decision to continue using the innovation and may use the innovation to its fullest potential.

Customers will go through this five steps when deciding to purchase a tablet or a an E reader. They need to make sure if they are available to them and if they will be able to enjoy and use all its features. Since in the year 2021, E readers will be widely available and will replace a laptop , they will be in all retail stores and for a reasonable price. The next step would be the persuasion. Since the E reader is widely used, persuading people to buy one would be a piece of cake. The decision comes next, this is whether people will choose whether or not they truly need one. The implementation is next, and this would be the E reader and tablet. The last step would be the confirmation, these is where the customer decided whether or not they made the right choice of purchasing the E reader or tablet.

According to eMarketer, in 2009, 1.9 percent of adults, 4.4 million Americans over the age of 18, owned an eReader. By the end of this year they estimate that the number of Americans with an eReader will jump up to 20.6 million Americans, or 8.7 percent(digitaljournal.com)

Going through the process…

According to the textbook Communication Technology Update and Fundamentals critical mass theory is best described as a small segment of the population that chooses to make big contributions to the public good. The technologies become more useful if everyone on the system is using the technology, a goal known as universal access.

Facebook has definitely reached its critical mass theory. This social network site has reached millions of users all across the country and it keeps gaining more popularity. In the 2021 Facebook will be immense along with other social network sites.

Critical Mass Theory

Uses and gratifications research is a descriptive approach that gives insight into what people do with technology. This approach sees the users as actively seeking to use different media to fulfill different needs.

When an audience actively seeks out media they are seeking out a specific need, whether entertainment, merchandise, socializing, business or factual information. The theory can be seen within all aspects of media.

Uses and Gratifications Theory

An ecological theory that attempts to explore and explain the role of media in society by examining dependency relations within and across levels of analysis.

The key of this theory is the focus it provides on the dependency relationships that result from the interplay between resources and goals.

Media System Dependency Theory

Social Learning theory focuses on how people learn by modeling others. This observational learning occurs when watching another person model the behavior. It also happens with symbolic modeling, modeling that happens by watching the behavior modeled in a television or computer screen.

This seems to happen with all forms of communication. For example on Facebook, there might be people that have no idea what it is, but by watching others log and post ,they too learn.

For the year 2021 when you can video call from your television, this will be greatly used. There will be videos on how to video call for those who need a little help getting started.

The same thing goes for the tablets and the E readers. The more people see others do and use, they go right on ahead and follow.

Social Learning Theory

A useful framework for examining not only the effects of communication media, but also the adoption of communication technologies.

Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) describes learning in terms of the interrelationship between behavior, environmental factors, and personal factors. It also provides the theoretical framework for interactive learning used to develop both Constructivism and Cooperative Learning (IDEA)

With the 2021 communication technologies that I mentioned users might see others using them, and think about the consequences they might encounter if using the products/communication technologies.

Social Cognitive Theory

The theory of the Long Tail is that our culture and economy is increasingly

shifting away from a focus on a relatively small number

of "hits" (mainstream products and markets) at

the head of the demand curve and toward a huge number of niches in the tail. As the costs of production and distribution fall, especially online, there is now less need to lump products and consumers into one-size-fits-all containers. In an era without the constraints of physical shelf space and other bottlenecks of distribution, narrowly-targeted goods and services can be as economically attractive as mainstream fare (thelongtail.com)

The theory of the long tail

People spend a constant fraction of their disposable income on mass media over time. People do how ever alter their spending on mass media categories when new services/products are introduced ( communication technology update and fundamentals).

When it comes to the 2021 communication technologies the principle of relative constancy relates to all of them. People want to be up to date in their technology, so they will spend the money to do so. Society wants to have the new products, and they are willing to shell out the cash if they feel they need the product.

The Principle of Relative Constancy

THE FUTURE

The world of communication seems to always be changing. There are always new products on the market, that work or not. The year of 2021 seems to be like a great year for communication technology. There will be more social networks, television that you can video call a loved one with, and laptops will cease to exist. Everything will be done with either a tablet or an e reader. The future looks bright and full of promises, communication at its best!

Burke, Adrienne. "Facebook Insiders Ponder Its Future - Forbes." Information for the World's Business Leaders - Forbes.com. 16 Oct. 2011. Web. 11 Dec. 2011. <http://www.forbes.com/sites/techonomy/2011/11/16/figuring-out-facebook/>.

Grant, August E., and Jennifer Harman. Meadows. "Understanding Communication Technologies." Communication Technology Update and Fundamentals. 12th ed. Amsterdam: Focal/Elsevier, 2010. Print.

Rubenstein, Chanah. "EReader Growth among Americans Surpasses Previous Expectations." Digital Journal: A Global Digital Media Network. 26 May 2011. Web. 11 Dec. 2011. <http://digitaljournal.com/article/307212>.

"Social Cognitive Theory." IDEA. 1 June 2006. Web. <http://www.idea.org/blog/2006/06/01/social-cognitive-theory-sct/>.

Works Cited

Esmeralda Infante

Comm 303 Final Project

Bill Brantley

What will the communication technology landscape look like in 2021 A.D.?