comparative analysis 20201005 - pemex...comparative analysis 1/55 forward-looking statement &...
TRANSCRIPT
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Sonda de Campeche
Financial and Operational
Performance Comparative Analysis
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Forward-Looking Statement &
Cautionary NoteVariations
If no further specification is included, comparisons are made against the same realized period of the last year.
Rounding
Numbers may not total due to rounding.
Financial Information
Excluding budgetary and volumetric information, the financial information included in this report and the annexes hereto is based on unaudited consolidated financial statements prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board (“IFRS”), which PEMEX has adopted effective
January 1, 2012. Information from prior periods has been retrospectively adjusted in certain accounts to make it comparable with the unaudited consolidated financial information under IFRS. For more information regarding the transition to IFRS, see Note 23 to the consolidated financial statements included in Petróleos Mexicanos’ 2012 Form 20-F filed with
the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and its Annual Report filed with the Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores (CNBV). EBITDA is a non-IFRS measure. We show a reconciliation of EBITDA to net income in Table 33 of the annexes to PEMEX’s Results Report as of March 31, 2015. Budgetary information is based on standards from
Mexican governmental accounting; therefore, it does not include information from the subsidiary companies or affiliates of Petróleos Mexicanos. It is important to mention, that our current financing agreements do not include financial covenants or events of default that would be triggered as a result of our having negative equity.
Methodology
We might change the methodology of the information disclosed in order to enhance its quality and usefulness, and/or to comply with international standards and best practices.
Foreign Exchange Conversions
Convenience translations into U.S. dollars of amounts in Mexican pesos have been made at the exchange rate at close for the corresponding period, unless otherwise noted. Due to market volatility, the difference between the average exchange rate, the exchange rate at close and the spot exchange rate, or any other exchange rate used could be material.
Such translations should not be construed as a representation that the Mexican peso amounts have been or could be converted into U.S. dollars at the foregoing or any other rate. It is important to note that we maintain our consolidated financial statements and accounting records in pesos. As of June 30, 2020, the exchange rate of MXN 22.9715 = USD
1.00 is used.
Fiscal Regime
Beginning January 1, 2015, Petróleos Mexicanos’ fiscal regime is governed by the Ley de Ingresos sobre Hidrocarburos (Hydrocarbons Revenue Law). From January 1, 2006 and to December 31, 2014, PEP was subject to a fiscal regime governed by the Federal Duties Law, while the tax regimes of the other Subsidiary Entities were governed by the
Federal Revenue Law.
On April 18, 2016, a decree was published in the Official Gazette of the Federation that allows assignment operators to choose between two schemes to calculate the cap on permitted deductions applicable to the Profit-Sharing Duty: (i) the scheme established within the Hydrocarbons Revenue Law, based on a percentage of the value of extracted
hydrocarbons; or (ii) the scheme proposed by the SHCP, calculated upon established fixed fees, USD 6.1 for shallow water fields and USD 8.3 for onshore fields.
The Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS) applicable to automotive gasoline and diesel is established in the Production and Services Special Tax Law “Ley del Impuesto Especial sobre Producción y Servicios”. As an intermediary between the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) and the final consumer, PEMEX retains the amount of the
IEPS and transfers it to the Mexican Government. In 2016, the SHCP published a decree trough which it modified the calculation of the IEPS, based on the past five months of international reference price quotes for gasoline and diesel.
As of January 1 2016, and until December 31, 2017, the SHCP will establish monthly fixed maximum prices of gasoline and diesel based on the following: maximum prices will be referenced to prices in the U.S. Gulf Coast, plus a margin that includes retails, freight, transportation, quality adjustment and management costs, plus the applicable IEPS to
automotive fuel, plus other concepts (IEPS tax on fossil fuel, established quotas on the IEPS Law and value added tax).
PEMEX’s “producer price” is calculated in reference to that of an efficient refinery operating in the Gulf of Mexico. Until December 31, 2017, the Mexican Government is authorized to continue issuing pricing decrees to regulate the maximum prices for the retail sale of gasoline and diesel fuel, taking into account transportation costs between regions, inflation
and the volatility of international fuel prices, among other factors. Beginning in 2018, the prices of gasoline and diesel fuel will be freely determined by market conditions. However the Federal Commission for Economic Competition, based on the existence of effective competitive conditions, has the authority to declare that prices of gasoline and diesel fuel
are to be freely determined by market conditions before 2018.
Hydrocarbon Reserves
In accordance with the Hydrocarbons Law, published in the Official Gazette on August 11, 2014, the National Hydrocarbons Commission (CNH) will establish and will manage the National Hydrocarbons Information Center, comprised by a system to obtain, safeguard, manage, use, analyze, keep updated and publish information and statistics related; which
includes estimations, valuation studies and certifications. On August 13, 2015, the CNH published the Guidelines that rule the valuation and certification of Mexico’s reserves and the related contingency resources.
As of January 1, 2010, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) changed its rules to permit oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose not only proved reserves, but also probable reserves and possible reserves. Nevertheless, any description of probable or possible reserves included herein may not meet the recoverability
thresholds established by the SEC in its definitions. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F and our Annual Report to the CNBV and SEC, available at http://www.pemex.com/.
Forward-looking Statements
• This report contains forward-looking statements. We may also make written or oral forward-looking statements in our periodic reports to the CNBV and the SEC, in our annual reports, in our offering circulars and prospectuses, in press releases and other written materials and in oral statements made by our officers, directors or employees to third
parties. We may include forward-looking statements that address, among other things, our:
• exploration and production activities, including drilling;
• activities relating to import, export, refining, petrochemicals and transportation, storage and distribution of petroleum, natural gas and oil products;
• activities relating to our lines of business, including the generation of electricity;
• projected and targeted capital expenditures and other costs, commitments and revenues;
• liquidity and sources of funding, including our ability to continue operating as a going concern;
• strategic alliances with other companies; and
• the monetization of certain of our assets.
• Actual results could differ materially from those projected in such forward-looking statements as a result of various factors that may be beyond our control. These factors include, but are not limited to:
• changes in international crude oil and natural gas prices;
• effects on us from competition, including on our ability to hire and retain skilled personnel;
• limitations on our access to sources of financing on competitive terms;
• our ability to find, acquire or gain access to additional reserves and to develop the reserves that we obtain successfully;
• uncertainties inherent in making estimates of oil and gas reserves, including recently discovered oil and gas reserves;
• technical difficulties;
• significant developments in the global economy;
• significant economic or political developments in Mexico;
• developments affecting the energy sector; and
• changes in our legal regime or regulatory environment, including tax and environmental regulations.
Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. In any event, these statements speak only as of their dates, and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any of them, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. These risks and uncertainties are more fully detailed in our most recent
Annual Report filed with the CNBV and available through the Mexican Stock Exchange (http://www.bmv.com.mx/) and our most recent Form 20-F filing filed with the SEC (http://www.sec.gov/). These factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement.
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Overview
1. Reference nominal GDP as of 2Q20.
2. Preliminary figures at October 5, 2020.
• This presentation has official information intended to clarify some misleading information that has been
published about PEMEX’s operations and finances.
• PEMEX is still the largest company in Mexico and the main tax contributor.
• Total income in 2019 recorded MXN 1.9 trillion which represents 9.5% of the GDP.1
• During January-September 2020, the company handed around MXN 490.0 billion in direct and indirect
contributions to the Mexican State.2
• In the same period, PEMEX received MXN 46.3 billion from the Mexican government. This represents
0,75% of the total federal budget for 2020 and 13.9% of PEMEX’s total budgetary investment for the year.
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Transfers from PEMEX to SHCP and support received, Jan-Sep 2020Budgetary figures in MXN million
1. Net payment of Profit-sharing duty (DUC) utility, already discounting 48,750 million pesos of tax benefits that have been recorded as
of August. Preliminary figures as of October 5, 2020.
46,256
Federal GovernmentSupport
New projects capital injections
PEMEX's Transfers to theFederal Government
489,972 Total
Direct taxes(DUC & others)
Indirect taxes(IEPS & IVA)
PEMEX has received this support from the Federal Government
PEMEX has transferred
443,716 million to the
Federal Government
during Jan-Sep.
For each peso that the
State invested in
PEMEX, it obtained 9.4
pesos in return.
162,620
327,352
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PEMEX generates resources for the Federal Government
• PEMEX usually does not receive budgetary resources from the Federal Government, except for
some occasional cash injections that this year amount to 0.75% of the total federal budget.
• PEMEX generates resources for the Federal Government through taxes and duties which
represent around 10.4% of the total public spending financing (including Mexican states and
municipalities).
• Cash injections from the Federal Government are a complement to the company´s financing of
investment projects.
• For 2020, 86.1% of PEMEX’s investment projects are financed with the company’s own resources.
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Cash Injections from the Federal Government in 2020Budgetary figures in MXN million
46,256
6,107,732
635,114
Federal Government'scontribution to PEMEX
Federal Budget PEMEX's contributionto Federal
Government
PEMEX received
0.7% of the Federal
Budget in 2020
In 2020, PEMEX’s
contribution to the
Federal Budget will be
around 10.4%
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PEMEX generates resources for the Federal Government
• All operation expenditures for exploration, production and industrial transformation come from the
company’s own resources. These expenditures are not financed by the Federal Government.
• During 2019, for the first time in ten years, operation and capital expenditures were not financed
through debt. On the contrary, PEMEX recorded a negative net indebtedness of MXN 28.7 billion.
• PEMEX is still the state-owned company that contributes the most to Mexico’s development.
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How is PEMEX contributing to the Federal Government if its
financial statements record losses?
• With the data presented here it becomes clear that PEMEX is a competitive company that
generates value for the country and in some cases, records better results that the average of the
industry.
• Since PEMEX issues debt in international markets, it must comply with IFRS rules for the
presentation of its financial statements.
• The net income/loss line in the Income Statement considers some variables that generate cash
flow but also some others that are considered virtual.
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What are Financial Statements?
• Financial statements provide information about the company, allowing its stakeholders to have a
detailed picture about the company’s financial performance.
• All financial transactions must be recorded as part of the financial statements.
• Specifically for PEMEX, according to the applicable regulations for securities issuers (Circular
Única de Emisoras, CUE), financial statements must be constructed under IFRS.
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Financial Statements’ Purpose
Measure the company’s operational and
financial performance during a specific
period
Quantify the company’s current value
considering assets and liabilities for the short,
medium and long terms, as well as the
comprehensive income/loss.
Valuation variables include:
• Asset impairment
• Exchange income/loss
• Plugging of wells, etc.
1 2Some of the used variables are:
• Ratios: EBITDA and EBITDA Margin
• Sales
• Operation and investment expenditures, etc.
Reflect the company’s performance using
variables that generate cash flow
Most of these variables do not generate cash
flow
How much is the company making?
Is it recording profits or losses?
How much is the company worth?
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Examples of variables that generate cash
flow, 2019
Examples of variables that do not
generate cash flow, 2019
Concept MXN million
Total sales 1,403,473
General expenses 152,307
Exploration expenses 10,663
Concept MXN million
Impairment (reversal) of wells,
pipelines, property, plant and
equipment
76,973
Loss due to on hold, non-viable
and non-successful wells76,279
Actuarial loss for employee
benefits320,525
Variables used in Financial Statements
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Accurate reading of PEMEX's financial statements
• If we want to talk about how much PEMEX is earning or losing, it is not accurate to use the
comprehensive income/loss reported in the company's financial statements. A better way to measure the
performance of the company is using indexes such as EBITDA, EBITDA Margin or even the net
income/loss not including the impairment of assets, nor losses due to on hold, non-viable and unsuccessful
wells.
• Unfortunately, there has been some confusion and the comprehensive income/loss item has been used
as a synonym for business profit/loss. However, this item reflects the value of the company and not its
performance. The latter would be a better way to understanding how much the company is earning or
losing in a specific period.
• PEMEX's comprehensive loss during the first half of 2020 recorded MXN 581.0 billion, but it doesn’t mean
that the company has lost that money nor that it has cost that amount to public treasury. This figure
has even been incorrectly used to calculate how much PEMEX loses per day, per hour, etc.
• The mistake of using this item as a synonym of profit or loss, lies in the fact that it considers projected
future cash flows, in addition to including items that do not generate cash flow.
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Comprehensive income/loss, 2010-2019
(Includes items that do not generate cash flow)1
Real MXN billion (2019=100)
-74
-168
-525
112
-673 -753
-74
-305
45
-660
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
• PEMEX recorded its highest comprehensive
losses in 2014 and 2015.
• Comprehensive Income/Loss includes
accounting items that generate cash flow and
items that do not generate cash flow.
• Since cash flow and virtual items are mixed,
this does not reflect the profitability of the
company.
This item does not indicate the profit or
loss, but the value of the company
1. Impairment, Foreign exchange profit/loss, unsuccessful wells, others.
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Variables that determine PEMEX’s
Comprehensive Loss, 2019MXN million
-309,327
-97,082
-67,216
-264,554
78,245
2019
-659,934Comprehensive loss
Actuarial loss due to employee benefits.
Does not generate cash flow.
Impairment of assets.
Does not generate cash flow.
Loss due to on hold, non-viable and unsuccessful wells.
Does not generate cash flow.
Loss due to cashflow items, primarily due to tax
burden (MXN 360 billion in 2019).
60% of the total
comprehensive loss for 2019
resulted from accounting
items that do not generate
cash flow, they are virtual
accounting effects or
projected future cashflows
such as the impairment of
assets or pension liability.
In other words, PEMEX
is not actually losing this
amount.
Unrealized foreign exchange profit.
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Variables that determine PEMEX’s
Comprehensive Loss, 1H20 MXN million
-581,016 Comprehensive Loss
Unrealized foreign exchange loss.
Does not generate cash flow
Loss due to cashflow items, primarily due to tax
burden (MXN 114 billion in 1H20)
68% of the total comprehensive
loss for 1H20 resulted from
accounting items that do not
generate cash flow, they are
virtual accounting effects or
projected future cashflows such
as the impairment of assets
pension liability.
In other words, PEMEX
didn’t lose this amount.
Impairment reversal (7,925) and unsuccessful wells
from prior years (-3,479) Do not generate cash flow4,446
-400,423
-185,039
2020
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So, does PEMEX lose or make money?
• Before taxes, PEMEX is one of the most profitable companies in the international oil industry.
• Amid the international crisis, during the first half of 2020 PEMEX recorded one of the best results
in the industry: a 20 percent EBITDA margin.
• In a highly competitive environment in the oil industry, PEMEX is between the top competitors
regarding profitability and operational efficiency.
• Unfortunately, PEMEX also has the most burdensome tax regime, not only in Mexico but in the
entire international industry.
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PEMEX: a company that creates value
1. Does not include variables that do not generate cash flow. EBITDA for its acronym in English (earnings before interest, taxes,
depreciation, and amortization)
Source: Bloomberg and PEMEX Financial Statements under IFRS 2020.
• The EBITDA margin reflects the profit or income of a
company before the payment of interest, taxes, amortization
and depreciation of fixed assets in proportion to its total sales.
• It is an international standard index that allows to compare
the performance of companies by generated profit.
• During the first half of 2020, PEMEX’s results reflect
competitiveness, being above the average recorded by
leading companies in the oil industry.
• Petróleos Mexicanos shows its ability to create value under
this standard measure of profitability.
9%
10%
10%
10%
11%
12%
17%
18%
20%
34%
40%
EBITDA margin, 1H20
(EBITDA / Sales percentage)1
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2019 & 1S20 Financial HighlightsMXN billion
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2019Jan- Jun
2020
Sales 1,402 466
Cost of sales 1,123 396
Impairment (reverse) 97 -8
Gross Income 182 78
Transportation and distribution
expenses145 77
Operating income (loss) 37 1
EBITDA 397 97
EBITDA margin 28% 20%
Financial cost, income due to
financial derivatives127 103
Foreign exchange profit (loss) 87 -420
Taxes, duties and others 344 84
Net income (loss) -347 -606
11
12
Main factor of loss, but it is a
virtual item
Real profitability
Real profitability
Real profitability
Real profitability
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PEMEX operational efficiency
• Sometimes PEMEX has been associated to inefficient management and high operating costs.
• Actually, PEMEX has the lowest operating cost indexes in the international oil industry.
• In the first half of 2020, PEMEX’s operating expenses/total sales ratio recorded 68%, while other
leading companies in the industry revealed higher ratios: Exxon 86%, BP and Shell 85%, and
Repsol 82%, just to mention a few examples.
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EBITDA and Operating Expenses Peer Comparison
1. PEMEX’s EBITDA: Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, impairment, undeveloped wells and net periodic
cost of employee benefits net of pension and medical payments
2. Cost of sales, general and administrative expenses
Source: Bloomberg preliminary information and PEMEX financial statements (Equinor and Repsol reports observed information)
50%59%
68%80% 81% 84% 85% 83% 85% 82% 86%
10%7%
12%2% 2%
4% 4% 7% 5% 8% 5%40% 34%
20% 18% 17%12% 11% 10% 10% 10% 9%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
EBITDA
SG&A
Operating Expenses
1/
2/
PEMEX’s efficiency: Operational costs below the average of O&G peers
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Tax burden offsets profits
• Unlike other companies in the industry, PEMEX has a particularity in its tax base.
• While the rest of the oil companies pay taxes on generated profit, PEMEX pays taxes on gross
value associated to hydrocarbons production.
• In 2019, PEMEX’s tax/EBITDA ratio recorded 105%; three times the average of oil industry.
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Comparison of the tax burden in the oil industry
1. Taxes calculated for comparable companies: Income tax and duties / royalties (17.25% on oil production profit) and PEMEX: Income
tax, royalties (7.5% on production income) and DUC.
Source: Bloomberg and PEMEX Financial Statements under IFRS 2019. Industry Tax Methodology: Upstream Petroleum, Fiscal and
Valuation Modeling, by Kent Karriel & David Wood, 2015
Taxes and duties
on EBITDA 20191
• PEMEX with a 105% Tax / EBITDA ratio is above
comparable companies.
• For the group of companies compared, the
average taxes and duties on EBITDA ratio is
36.2%
• In other words, PEMEX does create value for
the country by operating with profitability
levels higher than the industry average, but its
tax regime transfers all profits to federal
government.
20%
25%
29%
3…
35%
38%
38%
41%
52%
52%
105%
Accrued
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PEMEX and budgetary balance
• In addition to using EBITDA and EBITDA margin indexes, another way to analyze PEMEX's
financial performance is through its budgetary financial balance.
• The budgetary financial balance only considers cash flow variables and is reported under
Mexico’s Accounting standards.
• Financial balance calculation includes all the income that PEMEX collects from domestic and
export sales, dividends, asset sales, among other concepts, and all expenses incurred from
operating expenses, investments, interest payments and taxes.
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PEMEX: Budgetary Financial Balance, 2019MXN billion
1. Includes MXN 3 billion for net foreign operations.
1,899
1,220
1,018
139
Total
income
Purchase
for resale
Operating
expenses
Operative
balance1Primary
Balance
before
taxes
Financial
cost
Taxes and
duties
Payment
of debt
interest
Primary
Balance
Financial
Balance1
183
201
501
875
116
-197
9.6%
PEMEX does generate value,
with a primary balance of 1.0
trillion pesos, but tax burden was
85.9% as compared to this
balance.
27
For the first time
in a decade,
PEMEX
generated a
surplus
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PEMEX: financial balance 2008-2019Real 2019 MXN billion
223.0
-47.6
-82.8
-54.2 -49.5 -45.4
-162.4-176.1
-117.9-101.8
-64.0
26.4
Since 2008, PEMEX didn’t
record a positive financial
balance
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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25
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Crude Oil Production1
Thousand barrels per day
1. Considers crude oil and condensates production of fields, including partners
-1.8% -2.4% -5.3% -2.9%-1.8% -2.4% -5.3% -2.9%-2.1%
2,5482,522
2,429
2,267
2,154
1,948
1,833
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-6.7%
-5%
-9.6%
-5.9%
-3.7%
-1%
1,833
1,701 1,7111,733
1,944
2,011
2,088
2,236
2018 2019 2020 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
-7.2%0.6% 1.3%
12.2%3.4%
3.8%
7.1%
ForecatsReal
2012-2018 2018-2024
Jan-
AugAnnual
Forecast
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Crude Oil Production, Jan-Aug 20201
Thousand barrels per day
1. Considers crude oil and condensates production of fields, including partners
1,749 1,755 1,771 1,747
1,677 1,655 1,6471,688
Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago
Production shut-in
(OPEC+ agreement )
The decrease in production
during May-July was induced
to comply with the OPEC
agreement.
It was not due to a natural
decrease in production.
As of August, we began to
gradually return to production
levels prior to the OPEC
agreement.
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Crude Oil Production 2018-20201
Thousand barrels per day
1. Considers crude oil and condensates production of fields, including partners
-1.8% -2.4% -5.3% -2.9%-1.8% -2.4% -5.3% -2.9%-1.8% -2.3% -5.1% -2.8% -0.1% +1.3% -0.07%
1,9
32
1,8
97
1,8
67
1,8
88
1,8
70
1,8
48
1,8
43
1,8
18
1,8
27
1,7
67
1,7
16
1,7
29
1,6
42 1,7
22
1,7
10
1,6
94
1,6
83
1,6
92
1,6
97
1,7
08
1,7
30
1,6
81
1,7
22
1,7
32
1,7
49
1,7
55
1,7
71
1,7
47
1,6
77
1,6
55
1,6
47
1,6
88
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
2019 20202018
Lowest
recordShut in production
(OPEP+ agreement)
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PEMEX’s Crude Oil Production 2018-20201
Thousand barrels per day
1. Considers crude oil and condensates production of fields, does not include partners.
-1.8% -2.4% -5.3% -2.9%-1.8% -2.4% -5.3% -2.9%-1.8% -2.3% -5.1% -2.8% -0.1% +1.3% -0.07%
1,9
28
1,8
93
1,8
58
1,8
79
1,8
61
1,8
39
1,8
34
1,8
03
1,8
12
1,7
53
1,7
02
1,7
14
1,6
26 1,7
06
1,6
94
1,6
78
1,6
66
1,6
76
1,6
80
1,6
90
1,7
13
1,6
63
1,7
04
1,7
13
1,7
30
1,7
36
1,7
52
1,7
26
1,6
57
1,6
35
1,6
28
1,6
69
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Lowest
recordShut in production
(OPEP+ agreement)
2019 20202018
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Mexico’s Crude Oil Production Jan-Aug 20201
Thousand barrels per day
1. For PEMEX and partners as of August 2020. PEMEX (1,691 mbd) + Partners (20 mbd). For private companies, it corresponds to the
January-July average, which is the latest figure published by CNH.
1,711
2020
1,731
Private companies' production
20 Mbd (1.1%)
98.9%
PEMEX + Partners
After almost 6 years
from the energy reform,
Petróleos Mexicanos
contributes the most to
Mexico’s crude oil
production
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PEMEX Achieves Production of New Developments in Record Time Thousand barrels per day
Source: PEMEX´s production data is obtained from Pemex Exloración y Producción. Private companies' data is published by Comisión
Nacional de Hidrocarburos, obtained from contracts production at www.cnh.gob.mx
121.7 Mbd
24 MbdEnergy reform
PEMEX starts
development of
20 new fields
PEMEX in
1.7 years
Private companies'
production in 6 years
PEMEX's production of new
developments is 5 times higher as
compared to private companies'
production. This was achieved in a
third of the time compared to the
private companies
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-1
4
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Jul-1
4
Sep-1
4
No
v-1
4
Jan-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Jul-1
5
Sep-1
5
No
v-1
5
Jan-1
6
Ma
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Jul-1
6
Sep-1
6
No
v-1
6
Jan-1
7
Ma
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Jul-1
7
Sep-1
7
No
v-1
7
Jan-1
8
Ma
r-1
8
Ma
y-1
8
Jul-1
8
Sep-1
8
No
v-1
8
Jan-1
9
Ma
r-1
9
Ma
y-1
9
Jul-1
9
Sep-1
9
No
v-1
9
Jan-2
0
Ma
r-2
0
Ma
y-2
0
Jul-2
0
Sep-2
0
-
32/55
Induced Temporary Shut-In Production May-July
• Some incorrect data about Petróleos Mexicanos' crude oil production was published, considering only
one of the components of total oil production.
• PEMEX publishes in a disaggregated manner the flows of liquids, condensates and other components
that comprise total production. PEMEX has been consistent with this methodology in its quarterly
and annual reports.
• The official oil production figures are those reported by PEMEX in its Petroleum Statistics and are the
ones we are using for this report.
• The information saying that PEMEX's oil production recorded historic minimum levels in July is imprecise.
• It should be noted that the historical minimum production for the last 14 years was recorded in January
2019, when official production was 1,642 thousand barrels per day. Since that date, production was first
stabilized and then gradually increased from October 2019, until the induced shut-in to comply with the
OPEC agreement towards the end of April 2020.
-
33/55
Temporary Induced Shut-In Production During May-July
• It is worth mentioning that once the agreement with OPEC to shut-in production by 100 thousand barrels
per day, in effect in May and June, and subsequently extended to July, Pemex Exploration and
Production has begun with the gradual opening of the wells that were closed to comply with the
agreement.
• Most of the selected wells for the induced shut-in of production were mature field wells. The
reestablishment of those wells’ production is not immediate. Their reopening is in process, according to
the programmed schedule and it is already reflected in August and September.
• It is estimated that total shut-in production to comply with the agreement with OPEC+ will be
reestablished in October.
• Additionally, during July and August different meteorological phenomena affected production during some
weeks of this summer. One of the biggest effects was the impact of the Olympic Future tanker when it
lost its position due to bad wind conditions caused by the presence of a squall, which damaged the
floating production, storage and offloading vessel (FPSO) Yúum K'aak' Náab. This caused a deferred
production of approximately 68,000 barrels per day in July.
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34/55
Crude Oil Production Increase from the New Fields
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2019 2020
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agu Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Agu Sep
Prod. 2.6 3.5 4.6 5.2 5.2 6.4 6.8 7.0 7.8 8.1 11.6 13.5 20.4 21.8 33.9 47.0 47.5 57.5 76.8 107.7 140.6
121.7 Mbd
Is the production from new
developments in September 2020
Of the 20 new
developments, 15 have
already started their
production stage with at
least one well
Development Well Sept (Mbd)
1 CahuaCahua-2 3.6
Cahua-3 1.8
2 CheekCheek-1 5.3
Cheek-45 5.9
3 Chejekbal Chejekbal-1 6.9
4 Chocol Chocol-1 0.0
5 Cibix
Cibix-1 0.8
Cibix-1001 0.9
Cibix-12 2.4
6 HokHok-4 5.5
Hok-44 3.4
7 Ixachi
Ixachi-1 2.8
Ixachi-10 3.7
Ixachi-1DL 3.4
Ixachi-2 1.5
Ixachi-20 2.8
Development Well Sept (Mbd)
8 Manik Manik-4 4.3
9 Mulach
Mulach-10 7.1
Mulach-5 10.7
Mulach-9 10.8
10 Octli Octli-2 5.6
11 QuesquiQuesqui-1 7.6
Quesqui-1DL 8.2
12 TlacameTlacame-13 7.1
Tlacame-3 6.5
13 Valeriana Valeriana-1 0.9
14 Xikin
Xikin-22 0.0
Xikin-24 1.6
Xikin-32 0.6
Total 29 wells 121.7
-
35/55
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800Ja
n
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v
Jan
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
No
v600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Ja
n
Ma
r
Ma
y
Ju
l
Sep
Nov
Ja
n
Ma
r
Ma
y
Ju
l
Sep
Nov
Base Incremental fields en execution New fields
PEMEX’s Effort to Stabilize and Increase Crude Oil Production 2019-2020Thousand barrels per day
1,626
1,192
2019 2020
Scenario of continuity of the
previous policy
• Annual decline 26 % or 387 Mbd• Monthly decline 32 Mbd
2019 2020
1,626
1,814
Results obtained with the new
policy 2018-20241
• Base production increased by 387 Mbd
• New developments 116 Mbd• Total increase of 503 Mbd
Base production
1. September to November 2020 are estimated figures
-
36/55
Dimension of the effort of Petróleos Mexicanos' workers to
maintain base production
• Due to the maturity of most of our fields, the decline in crude oil production is around 26 percent per year,
or approximately 387,000 barrels per day or 32,000 barrels per month.
• In order to compensate for this decline, one of the most successful strategies of this administration was
to carry out major drilling and repair activities in mature fields.
• In addition, the work of attending to the wells in order to give continuity to their productive life through
minor repairs, stimulations and inductions was increased.
• All these activities have resulted in a 387 thousand barrels per day increase in the production of mature
fields, which has compensated the natural decline of the oil fields.
• This last part is extremely relevant, since from a simplistic analysis, the effort that to stop the natural fall
of the production could be minimized. This is a great achievement for PEMEX’s technicians.
• All the above allowed the company to stabilize production in a first stage, and to reach net production
increases due to drilling of wells in new fields in a second stage.
-
37/55
Lifting CostUSD per barrel
-1.8% -2.4% -5.3% -2.9%-1.8% -2.4% -5.3% -2.9%-2.1%
0.0%
6.8
7.98.2
9.4
7.8
10.9
13.7
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
14.3%
-16.8%
39.5%
26%
3.9%16%
13.714.1
13.8
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
2.4% -1.8%
Forecats
Real
Between 2017 and
2018, costs increased
32.7% annual
average
In two years a
minimum 2% reduction
is expected by the end
of 2020
2012-2018 2018-2024
-
38/55
-
39/55
Budgetary InvestmentMXN billion
-1.8% -2.4% -5.3% -2.9%-1.8% -2.4% -5.3% -2.9%-2.1%
0.0%312
334
359
306 299
194 189
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-14.7%-2.3%
-35.3%-2.6%
7.6%
6.9%
189201
305
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
51.4%
6.8%
ForecastRealBetween 2014 and 2018
PEMEX's investment fell
13.7% annual average
and debt increased
Without new debt,
investment is
expected to grow
more than 50% by the
end of the year
2012-2018 2018-2024
-
40/55
Results of Austerity and Expense Discipline 2015-2020MXN million
2015 2016 2017 2018 20192020
(Jan-Jun)
Cleaning and sanitation materials and others 72 59 45 33 8 10
Mobile phones 13 11 8 7 2 0
Technical consulting 3,435 3,361 2,884 2,276 751 236
Research and Investigation 275 65 22 109 13 15
Services from third parties 1,205 284 629 1,243 761 658
Social Communication 119 165 211 244 12 17
Travel expenses 3,154 2,683 2,436 883 471 191
Conferences, conventions and events 26 12 42 11 0 0
TOTAL 8,300 6,640 6,277 4,805 2,019 1,128
8,3006,640 6,277
4,805
2,019 1,128
Efficiency, austerity and
expense discipline at
PEMEX
Note: Total may not equal the exact sum of the figures due to rounding.
-
41/55
Crude Oil Processing in the National Refining SystemThousand barrels per day
-1.8% -2.4% -5.3% -2.9%-1.8% -2.4% -5.3% -2.9%-2.1%
1,199 1,2241,155
1,065
933
767
612
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-7.8%
-12%
-18%
-20%
-5.6%2.1%
612 592 582
681
1,114
1,253
1,5201,565
2018 2019 2020 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
-3.3% -1.7
17%
64%
12%
21%3%
ForecastReal
2012-2018 2018-2024
Jan-Aug Annual
forecast
-
42/55
Results of the Strategy to Combat Fuel Theft, 2018-2020Thousand barrels per day
74
23
5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 6 5 4 5 4 4 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 4 6 2 3 3 36 6 6
2 4 3 4 4
Dec 0
1-2
0
Dec 2
1-3
1
Avg.
201
9
Avg.
202
0
Ja
n 2
02
0
Fe
b 2
02
0
Ma
r 2
02
0
Apr
20
20
Ma
y 2
02
0
Ju
n 2
02
0
Ju
l 20
20
Aug
20
20
Sep
20
20
1-S
ep
2-S
ep
3-S
ep
4-S
ep
5-S
ep
6-S
ep
7-S
ep
8-S
ep
9-S
ep
10-S
ep
11-S
ep
12-S
ep
13-S
ep
14-S
ep
15-S
ep
16-S
ep
17-S
ep
18-S
ep
19-s
ep
20-s
ep
21-s
ep
22-s
ep
23-s
ep
24-s
ep
25-s
ep
26-s
ep
27-s
ep
28-s
ep
29-s
ep
30-s
ep
2018
Source: Comisión Nacional de Seguridad, Informe Seguridad http://www.informeseguridad.cns.gob.mx/
Fuel theft has decreased by 95%
as compared to the average for 2018
-
43/55
Losses due to Fuel SubstractionMXN billion
1. Prices at storage facilities, does not include taxes (IEPS and IVA)
2. As compared to 2018
36.2
3.62.03.2 1.0 0.4
2018 2019 Jan-Aug 2020
Automotive gasolines & diesel LPG
Successful strategy
against fuel
substraction
Estimated savings for
PEMEX in two years
amount to MXN 71.8
billion2
1 1 1
-
44/55
GDP O&G Contribution 2018-2020
Fuente: INEGI
• PEMEX’s activity is recorded in the secondary sector of the economy. Particularly in the "Oil and gas extraction
activity".
• This activity has recorded a positive trend since 1Q19, contributing to national development.
• By 3Q19, oil and gas extraction ranked fourth in the level of contribution to the secondary sector.
• By 2Q20, oil and gas extraction moved to second place, displacing the transport equipment manufacturing
industry.
12.2%11.9% 11.9% 11.6%
11.0% 11.2%11.4%
11.8% 11.9%
15.0%
10.5%
11.5%
12.5%
13.5%
14.5%
15.5%
Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020
Oil and gas extraction
-
45/55
O&G Industry Contribution to National GDP, 2017-2020
1. MXN billion, constant 2013 figures.
Source: INEGI
• This graph shows the evolution of the oil and gas extraction industry as part of Mexico's total GDP.
• The crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic caused that, in absolute terms, the oil and gas extractioncontribution to total GDP decreased by approximately MXN 1.5 billion, as compared to the same quarter of last
year. The growth rate in the same period was -0.25%.
• In percentage terms, the contribution of the oil and gas extraction activity had a greater participation in 2Q20,recording a 4% contribution to total GDP.
710 714
674 671 657 656 651618
589 595611 613 620
594
4.0% 3.9%3.8%
3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5%
3.3% 3.2% 3.2%3.3% 3.3%
3.4%
4.0%
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
1Q 2017 2Q 2017 3Q 2017 4Q 2017 1Q 2018 2Q 2018 3Q 2018 4Q 2018 1Q 2019 2Q 2019 3Q 2019 4Q 2019 1Q 2020 2Q 2020
Va
lue o
f co
ntr
ibutio
n to
to
tal G
DP
1
Pe
rce
nta
ge
sh
are
in
to
tal
GD
P
Growth rate Δ: -0.25%
-
46/55
-
47/55
Financial DebtUSD billion
1. Preliminary figures
-1.8%-2.4% -5.3% -2.9%-1.8%-2.4% -5.3% -2.9%
-2.1% 0.0%
60.064.0
78.0
87.0
96.0
103.0106.0
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
11.5%
10.3%
7.3%
2.9%
21.9%
6.7%
10
6.0
10
5.0
105.0
10
5.0
10
5.0
105.0
10
4.0
103
104
105
106
107
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
-0.9% 0%
ForecastObserved
2012-2018 2018-20241
-
48/55
Maturity Profile
USD billion
1. Represents the pending amount to be covered by the 2020’s financing program, considering the refinancing operations performed in
the first half of the year. Does not considers revolving credit facilities and short-term credits, nor accrued interests.
6.7
9.6 9.4 8.7 8.6
6.7 4.2
9.1 7.5
4.4 3.6
0.3 0.1
23.7
201
9
202
0
202
1
202
2
202
3
202
4
202
5
202
6
202
7
202
8
202
9
203
0
203
1
203
2
20
33
→
1
1.6
6.0 5.5 6.3 8.5
4.0
8.7 9.8
4.3 3.6 4.7 3.9
30.2
201
9
202
0
202
1
202
2
202
3
202
4
202
5
202
6
202
7
202
8
202
9
203
0
203
1
203
2
20
33
→
Before
As of December 31, 2018
Current
As of June 30, 2020
This administration has performed the largest refinancing operations in the history of PEMEX: more than
USD 30 billion of refinanced financial liabilities.
-
49/55
Ten-year PEMEX’s bond yield
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
201
8-0
2-2
3
201
8-0
4-2
3
201
8-0
6-2
3
201
8-0
8-2
3
201
8-1
0-2
3
201
8-1
2-2
3
201
9-0
2-2
3
201
9-0
4-2
3
201
9-0
6-2
3
201
9-0
8-2
3
201
9-1
0-2
3
201
9-1
2-2
3
202
0-0
2-2
3
Rendim
iento
(%
)
PEMEX 10 years
Maximum:
20/11/18
7.65%
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
202
0-0
3-0
2
202
0-0
3-1
6
202
0-0
3-3
0
202
0-0
4-1
3
202
0-0
4-2
7
202
0-0
5-1
1
202
0-0
5-2
5
202
0-0
6-0
8
202
0-0
6-2
2
202
0-0
7-0
6
202
0-0
7-2
0
202
0-0
8-0
3
Rendim
iento
(%
)
PEMEX 10 years
Maximum:
27/04/2020
12.05%
Pre-Covid-19 Period: Feb 2018 - Feb 2020 Covid-19 Period: Mar 2020- Jul 2020
28/02/2020:
6.25%
11/08/2020:
7.54%
The maximum during Covid-19 recorded 12.05%, as compared to the 7.65%maximum
in the pre-Covid period
Yie
ld (
%)
Yie
ld (
%)
-
50/55
-
51/55
PEMEX will continue to be the most important tax
contributor in 2021
• According to the proposed 2021 Federal Budget, PEMEX estimates to transfer around MXN 897.2
billion to the Federal Government in the form of direct and indirect contributions
• From this amount, PEMEX will get back a MXN 45 billion capitalization to finance part of its
investment projects. This represents 0.7% of the total federal budget for the year.
• In other words, PEMEX will contribute with MXN 852.2 billion to the Mexican State next year.
-
52/55
PEMEX contributions to the Federal Government for 2021 MXN million
1. Consider an annual average price of the Mexican crude oil mix of USD 42.1 per barrel
PEMEX's transfers tothe government
897,170 Total
Direct taxes(DUC1 & others)
Indirect taxes(IEPS & IVA)
PEMEX will
continue to be
the most
important tax
contributor in
2021
352,570
544,600
Federal GovernmentSupport
Capitalizations for the new refinery
Total support from the Federal Government
45,050
-
53/55
Final Thoughts
1. Preliminary figures at October 2, 2020.
2. Reference nominal GDP as of 2Q20.
• PEMEX is the main contributor to the Mexican State.
• During January-August 2020, PEMEX handed MXN 438.1 billion to the Federal Government in
the form of direct and indirect contributions.1
• PEMEX’s contributions finance around 10.4% of the total federal expenditures (including Mexican
states and municipalities.
• In 2019, PEMEX’s total income recorded MXN 1.9 trillion which represents 9.5% of the GDP.2
• Petróleos Mexicanos usually does not receive budgetary resources from the Federal Government,
except for some occasional cash injections that this year amount to 0.75% of the total federal
budget.
-
54/55
Final Thoughts
• All operation expenditures for exploration, production and industrial transformation come from the
company’s own resources. These expenditures are not financed by the Federal Government.
• During 2019, for the first time in ten years, operation and capital expenditures were not financed
through debt. On the contrary, PEMEX recorded a negative net indebtedness of MXN 28.7 billion.
• PEMEX is consolidated as one of the main companies of the oil and gas industry. Its EBITDA
margin in the first half of 2020 recorded 20%.
• PEMEX is still the state-owned company that contributes the most to Mexico’s development.
-
Investor Relations
(+52 55) 9126-2940
www.pemex.com/en/investorsSonda de Campeche