completion and attrition: program baseline data cgs annual meeting pre-meeting workshop december 5,...

Completion and Attrition: Program

Baseline Data

CGS Annual MeetingPre-Meeting Workshop

December 5, 2007

Robert SowellTing Zhang

Ph.D. Completion Project Overview

Goals:• To study doctoral student completion and

attrition patterns at a specifically selected set of Research and Project Partners.

• To give deans context to lead conversations about what attrition and completion patterns actually are at their universities, and what practices could be implemented to improve these patterns.

• To empower graduate deans to develop interventions that are tailored to disciplines, departments, and programs at their universities.

Project Overview, Continued

Funding provided by Pfizer Inc and the Ford Foundation

29 Research Partner institutions received grants

25 Project Partner institutions are currently participating in various project aspects (unfunded)

Institutions participate in one or both project phases: • Phase I (2004-2007)• Phase II (2007-2010)

Phase I Research and Project Partners (Part I) Arizona State University*

University of California—Berkeley

University of California—Los Angeles*

University of Cincinnati* University of Colorado—

Boulder Cornell University* Duke University* University of Florida* Florida State University* Fordham University* George Washington

University University of Georgia*

* Submitted Data

Howard University* University of Iowa* University of Illinois—

Urbana Champaign* Jackson State

University University of Kansas Louisiana State

University University of

Louisville* Marquette University* University of Maryland

—Baltimore County* McGill University University of

Melbourne (Australia)

University of Michigan* Michigan State University University of Minnesota University of Missouri—

Columbia* Université de Montréal* New Mexico State University New York University* University of North Carolina

—Chapel Hill* North Carolina State

University* North Dakota State

University University of Notre Dame* Pennsylvania State

University*

Phase I Research and Project Partners (Part II) Princeton University*

University of Puerto Rico Purdue University* University of Rhode Island Rutgers-New Brunswick* University of Southern California Southern Illinois University—Carbondale* Syracuse University Washington University—St. Louis* Western Michigan University* Yale University** Submitted Data

Arizona State University

University of Arkansas Brown University University of California

—Berkeley University of California

—Los Angeles University of California

—San Diego University of Cincinnati Colorado State

University Cornell University Duke University

Phase II Research and Project Partners (Part I)

University of Florida Florida State

University University of Georgia Howard University University of Illinois—

Urbana Champaign University of Kansas University of Louisville Loyola University

Chicago Marquette University

University of Maryland—Baltimore County

McMaster University University of Michigan Michigan State University University of Missouri—

Columbia University of North

Carolina—Chapel Hill North Carolina State

University Northwestern University Ohio State University Pennsylvania State

University

Phase II Research and Project Partners (Part II)

Princeton University Purdue University University of Rhode

Island Rutgers—New

Brunswick University of

Southern California Syracuse University Washington

University—St. Louis Yale University

Categories of Potential Interventions

Selection/Matching Mentoring and Advising Financial Support and Structure Program Environments Research Experiences Curricular and Administrative

Processes and Procedures

Data Requirements

Aggregate demographic completion data by broad field

Factor assessments for each institution and program

Student Exit Surveys• Short and standard versions• Available as hard copy and online

Completion and attrition data by program

Completion Template - Data Entry

Entering student

academic year cohort*

Number of entering doctoral students

Number of students who left program

after receving master's degree

Number of students

admitted to PhD

candidacy**

3 years

[ ≤ 3Years ]

4 years

[ > 3 ≤ 4 Years ]

5 years

[ > 4 ≤ 5 Years ]

6 years

[ > 5 ≤ 6 Years ]

7 years

[ > 6 ≤ 7 Years ]

8 years

[ > 7 ≤ 8 Years ]

9 years

[ > 8 ≤ 9 Years ]

10 years

[ > 9 ≤ 10 Years ]

Number who are still

enrolled after 10 years

Number of students

admitted to candidacy is ≤ cohort size

Number of degrees + continuing

after candidacy is

≤ total admitted to candidacy A

ttriti

on c

heck

from

A

dmis

sion

***

Attr

ition

che

ck a

fter

cand

idac

y **

*

1992-93 TRUE TRUE 0 0

1993-94 TRUE TRUE 0 0

1994-95 TRUE TRUE 0 0

1995-96 TRUE TRUE 0 0

1996-97 TRUE TRUE 0 0

1997-98 TRUE TRUE 0 0

1998-99 TRUE TRUE 0 0

1999-2000 TRUE TRUE 0 0

2000-01 TRUE TRUE 0 0

2001-02 TRUE TRUE 0 0

2002-03 TRUE TRUE 0 0

2003-04 TRUE TRUE 0 0

2004-05 TRUE

2005-06 TRUE

Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TRUE TRUE 0 0

Number who completed within given number of years after enrollingData Verifications- Not for Analysis -

Of those admitted to PhD candidacy**:

Completion Template - Data Entry

Completion & Attrition – Data Verification

The "Attrition Check" columns include continuing students. These columns indicate the numbers of students who must be accounted for on the Attrition Template.

Attrition Template - Data Definitions

Years 1-4: Without MA: Withdrawal without

receiving a master's degree from the program

With MA: Withdrawal with completed master's degree without candidacy

With Candidacy: Withdrawal after achieving candidacy, with or without a master's degree

Transfer

Attrition Template - Data Entry

After Enrollment

CohortCohort

Size

Wit

ho

ut

MA

Wit

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A -

wit

ho

ut

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Ph

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De

gre

e

Co

nti

nu

ing

Info

Un

kn

ow

n

Wit

ho

ut

MA

Wit

h M

A -

wit

ho

ut

C

Wit

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an

did

ac

y

Tra

ns

fer

Ou

t

Sto

p O

ut

Ph

.D.

De

gre

e

Co

nti

nu

ing

Info

Un

kn

ow

n

Wit

ho

ut

MA

Wit

h M

A -

wit

ho

ut

C

Wit

h C

an

did

ac

y

Tra

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fer

Ou

t

Sto

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ut

Ph

.D.

De

gre

e

Co

nti

nu

ing

Info

Un

kn

ow

n

Wit

ho

ut

MA

Wit

h M

A -

wit

ho

ut

C

Wit

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an

did

ac

y

Tra

ns

fer

Ou

t

Sto

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ut

Ph

.D.

De

gre

e

Co

nti

nu

ing

Info

Un

kn

ow

n

Wit

hd

rew

Tra

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fer

Ou

t

Sto

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ut

Ph

.D.

De

gre

e

Co

nti

nu

ing

Info

Un

kn

ow

n

92-93 0 0 0 0 0 0

93-94 0 0 0 0 0 0

94-95 0 0 0 0 0 0

95-96 0 0 0 0 0 0

96-97 0 0 0 0 0 0

97-98 0 0 0 0 0 0

98-99 0 0 0 0 0 0

99-00 0 0 0 0 0 0

00-01 0 0 0 0 0 0

01-02 0 0 0 0 0 0

02-03 0 0 0 0 0

03-04 0 0 0 0

04-05 0 0 0

05-06 0 0

Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Year 5 [ > 4 ≤ 5 ]Year 1 [ ≤ 1 Year ] Year 2 [ > 1 ≤ 2 Years ] Year 3 [ > 2 ≤ 3 ] Year 4 [ > 3 ≤ 4 ]

0Annual Total 0 0 0 0

Attrition Template - Data Entry

Number of Programs and Entering Students by Broad

Field# of

Programs

# of EnteringStudents

Engineering 54 9,496

Life Sciences 66 6,925

Math & Physical Sciences

78 15,262

Social Sciences 65 9,671

Humanities 67 7,759

All Fields Total 330 49,113

Cohort Definitions for Baseline Data Analysis

A-Cohorts (10-year cohorts)• Students enrolling in 1992-93; 1993-94;

1994-95• 12,135 students (313 programs)

B-Cohorts (7-year cohorts)• Students enrolling in 1995-96; 1996-97;


C-Cohorts (4-year cohorts)• Students enrolling in 1998-99; 1999-2000;


New CGS Publication

Ph.D. Completion and Attrition: Analysis of

Baseline Program Data from the Ph.D.

Completion Project

Completion Rates The following completion graphs show

average cumulative 10-year completion rates for A-Cohorts (students entering doctoral study from 1992-93 through 1994-95).

Rates shown by:• Overall• Broad field• Discipline • Institution type (public vs. private)• Cohort size• Entering cohorts

Average Overall Ten-Year Completion Rates for Students Entering Doctoral Programs from

1992-93 through 1994-95

4.5

10.5

22.5

36.1

45.5

50.9

54.656.6

020

4060

Cu

mu

lati

ve C

om

ple

tio

n R

ate

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data

Ten-Year Completion Rates for SEM and SSH Students Entering from 1992-

93 through 1994-950

1020

3040

5060

Cu

mu

lati

ve

Co

mp

leti

on

Ra

te

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

SEM SSH

Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data

Ten-Year Completion Rates for Students Entering

from 1992-93 through 1994-95, by Broad Field

010

2030

4050

6070

Cu

mu

lati

ve

Co

mp

leti

on

Ra

te

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Engineering Life Sciences

Mathematics & Physical Sciences Social Sciences

Humanities


56.8

53.7

48.2

40.9

29.3

63.662.9

55.954.7

49.3

Ten-Year Completion Rates for Life Science Students Entering from 1992-

93 through 1994-950

1020

3040

5060

70C

um

ula

tive

Co

mp

leti

on

Rat

e

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Biology Genetics, Molecular Genetics

Microbiology and Immunology Molecular and Cellular Biology

Neuroscience


Ten-Year Completion Rates by Institution Type for Students Entering from 1992-93 through

1994-950

1020

3040

5060

Cu

mu

lati

ve C

om

ple

tio

n R

ate

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Private Public


Ten-Year Completion Rates for Students Entering from

1992-93 through 1994-95, by Institution Type and Broad Field

02

04

06

0

02

04

06

0

02

04

06

0

02

04

06

0

020

4060

2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10

2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10

Engineering Life Sciences Math & Physical Sciences

Social Sciences Humanities

Private Public

Cu

mu

lati

ve C

om

ple

tio

n R

ates

Year

Graphs by BFSource: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data

Ten-Year Completion Rates by Cohort Size for Students Entering from 1992-93

through 1994-950

1020

3040

5060

Cu

mu

lati

ve C

om

ple

tio

n R

ate

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Small Medium

Large


Small: 1-7Medium: 8-14Large: 15+

Ten-Year Completion Rates for Students Entering

from 1992-93 through 1994-95, by Cohort Size and Broad Field

020

4060

020

4060

020

4060

020

4060

020

4060

2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10

2 4 6 8 10 2 4 6 8 10

Engineering Life Sciences Mathematics & Physical Sciences


Small Medium

Large

Cu

mu

lati

ve C

om

ple

tio

n R

ates

Year



Ten-Year Completion Rates for Students Enteringfrom 1992-93 through 1994-95, by Discipline-

Specific Cohort Size Distributions in Chemistry vs. Computer & Information Sciences

01

02

03

04

050

60C

um

ula

tive

Co

mp

leti

on

Rat

e

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Small Medium

Large


01

02

03

04

05

0C

um

ula

tive

Co

mp

leti

on

Rat

e3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Year

Small Medium

Large


Chemistry Computer & Information Sciences

Small: 4-10 Medium:12-23Large: 25-55

Small: 2-15Medium:16-26Large: 31-78

Comparison of Seven-Year Completion Rates

between A- and B- Cohorts, SEM vs. SSH Fields

35.7

35.8

50.6

51.9

0 10 20 30 40 50 60Cumulative Completion Rate

SSH Fields

SEM Fields

NOTE: A-cohorts include all students entering 1992-93 through 1994-95 B-cohorts include all students entering 1995-96 through 1997-98


A-cohorts B-cohorts

Comparison of Seven-Year Completion Rates

between A- and B- Cohorts, by Broad Field

30.5

29.3

40.2

40.9

47.5

48.2

53.2

53.7

53.9

56.8

0 10 20 30 40 50 60Cumulative Completion Rate

Humanities

Social Sciences

Mathematics & Physical Sciences

Life Sciences

Engineering

NOTE: A-cohorts include all students entering 1992-93 through 1994-95 B-cohorts include all students entering 1995-96 through 1997-98


A-cohorts B-cohorts

Mathematics & Physical Sciences

Attrition Rates The following attrition graphs show

average cumulative 10-year attrition rates for A-Cohorts (students entering doctoral study from 1992-93 through 1994-95).

Rates shown by:• Overall• Broad field• Discipline • Institution type (public vs. private)• Cohort size

Ten-Year Attrition Rates for StudentsEntering from 1992-93 through 1994-

95

6.6

13.8

19.9

23.6

25.427.0

28.429.5

30.2 30.60

1020

30C

um

ula

tive

Att

riti

on

Rat

e

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data

Ten-Year Attrition Rates for Students Entering

from 1992-93 through 1994-95, SEM vs. SSH Fields

510

1520

2530

35C

um

ula

tive

Att

riti

on

Rat

e

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

SEM SSH

NOTE: 10-Year attrition Rates include all cohorts entering 1992-93 through 1994-95


Ten-year Attrition Rates for Students Entering

from 1992-93 through 1994-95, by Broad Field

510

1520

2530

3540

Cu

mu

lati

ve A

ttri

tio

n R

ate

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Engineering Life Sciences

Mathematics & Physical Sciences Social Sciences

Humanities

NOTE: 10-Year Attrition Rates include all cohorts entering 1992-93 through 1994-95



Social Sciences Disciplines from 1992-93 through 1994-950

510

1520

2530

3540

Cu

mu

lati

ve A

ttri

tio

n R

ate

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Anthropology and Archaeology Communications

Economics Political Science

Psychology Sociology

NOTE: 10-Year Attrition Rates include all cohorts entering 1992-93 through 1994-95


Ten-Year Attrition Rates for Student Entering

from 1992-93 through 1994-95, by Institution Type

05

1015

2025

3035

Cu

mu

lati

ve A

ttri

tio

n R

ate

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year

Private Public


Ten-Year Attrition Rates for Students Entering from 1992-93 through 1994-95, by Institution

Type and Broad Field0

10

20

30

01

02

03

0

01

02

03

04

0

01

02

030

01

02

03

0

0 5 10 0 5 10 0 5 10

0 5 10 0 5 10



Private Public

Cu

mu

lati

ve A

ttri

tio

n R

ate

s

Year



from 1992-93 through 1994-95, by Cohort Size

010

2030

Cu

mu

lati

ve A

ttri

tio

n R

ate

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10year

Small Medium

Large



Ten-Year Attrition Rates for Students Entering from

1992-93 through 1994-95, by Cohort Sizes and Broad Field

01

02

03

0

01

02

03

0

10

20

30

40

01

02

03

04

0

01

02

03

04

0

0 5 10 0 5 10 0 5 10

0 5 10 0 5 10



Small Medium

Large

Cu

mu

lati

ve A

ttri

tio

n R

ate

s

Year



Cumulative Ten-Year Attrition Rates for A-Cohorts in Engineering (except Electrical Engineering), by

Cohort Sizes and Year0

510

1520

25C

um

ula

tive

Att

riti

on

Rat

e

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10year

Small Medium

Large


Small: 1-7Medium: 8-14Large: 15-51

Regular Cohort Size Definition

05

1015

2025

Cu

mu

lati

ve A

ttri

tio

n R

ate

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10year

Small Medium

Large


Small: 1-6Medium: 7-13Large: 14-51

Discipline-specific Cohort Size Definition

Early Attrition (Years 1-4)

The following three attrition graphs show 4-year attrition rates for:• A-Cohorts (1992-93 through 1994-95)• B-Cohorts (1995-96 through 1997-98)• C-Cohorts (1998-99 through 2000-01)

Early Attrition (Years 1-4) Ratesfor A-, B- and C-Cohorts

20.2

24.2

23.6

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24Attrition Rate

NOTE: A-cohorts include all students entering 1992-93 through 1994-95 B-cohorts include all students entering 1995-96 through 1997-98 C-cohorts include all cohorts entering 1998-99 through 2000-01


A B

C

Early Attrition (Years 1-4) Ratesfor A-, B- and C-Cohorts by Broad Fields

16.6

20.2

19.3

22.0

26.6

26.5

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24Attrition Rate

SSH Fields

SEM Fields

NOTE: A-cohorts include all students entering 1992-93 through 1994-95 B-cohorts include all students entering 1995-96 through 1997-98 C-cohorts include all cohorts entering 1998-99 through 2000-01


A B

C

Components of Early Attrition (Years 1-4)

02

46

8P

erce

nt

Att

riti

on

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

A B C A B C A B C A B C

Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program DataNOTE: A-cohorts include all cohorts entering 1992-93 through 1994-95 B-cohorts include all cohorts entering 1995-96 through 1997-98 C-cohorts include all cohorts entering 1998-99 through 2000-01

No Master's Master's, No CandidacyMaster's, With Candidacy Transferred

Continuing Students The following four graphs show

continuing student rates, completion rates and attrition rates for • Ten-Year rates for A Cohorts

SEM vs. SSH Five broad fields

• Four-Year rates for each entering cohort from 1992-93 through 2000-01

020

4060

8010

0C

um

ula

tive

Rat

es %

SEM Fields Social Sciences & Humanities

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Note: 10-Year Cohorts include all cohorts entering 1992-93 through 1994-95


Continuing Completion Attrition

Continuing, Completion, and Attrition Rates for Students Entering from 1992-93 through

1994-95, SEM vs. SSH

Four-Year Continuing, Completion, and Attrition Rates for A-, B- and

C-Cohorts

72.7 7.1 20.2

67.5 8.3 24.2

65.9 10.5 23.6

0 20 40 60 80 100Rates

C

B

A



Four-Year Continuing, Completion, and Attrition Rates by Cohort Year

75.0 6.5 18.5

73.0 6.8 20.2

70.1 8.1 21.9

68.5 8.6 22.9

66.6 8.1 25.2

67.3 8.2 24.4

66.5 8.8 24.6

67.5 9.0 23.5

63.8 13.4 22.8

0 20 40 60 80 100Rates

2000-01

1999-2000

1998-99

1997-98

1996-97

1995-96

1994-95

1993-94

1992-93



Future Questions to be Addressed in the Ph.D.

Completion Project How do completion patterns vary by ethnicity, gender and citizenship?

Why do students say they complete (or not)? What are the perceptions about graduate school of completers and non-completers?

What is the impact of the six categories of interventions? How does efficacy vary across broad field and for which populations?

How does master’s degree completion interact with completion/attrition across program and broad field?

Can we project ultimate completion and time to degree from our completion and attrition data?

Future Ph.D. Completion Project Publications

Baseline demographic data (publication expected March 2008)

Student exit surveys (publication expected late fall 2008)

Promising practices, policies and activities

Publications based on 2007 and 2009 data submissions (2008-2010)

Final “Best Practices” report (2010)

completion and attrition: program baseline data cgs annual meeting pre-meeting workshop december 5,...

Documents

fordham university

university of iowa

yale university

princeton university

western michigan university

data howard university

project partners

project phases