controlled time of arrival (cta) feasibility analysis · controlled time of arrival (cta)...
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Controlled Time of Arrival (CTA) Feasibility Analysis
David De Smedt Eurocontrol Greg McDonald, Jesper Bronsvoort Airservices Australia
ATM Seminar 2013, Chicago U.S.A.
Drivers for RTA
The SESAR ATM Master Plan states that “Step 1, Time-based Operations, is the building block for the implementation of the SESAR Concept and is focused on flight efficiency, predictability and the environment”. NextGen Implementation Plan 2012 states that “Enhancements to the navigation capabilities of aircraft, RNAV/RNP with Time of Arrival Control (TOAC) in the descent phase, will begin to increase benefits of trajectory operations through the adaptability of the aircraft trajectory to enable operational predictability and arrival accuracy of aircraft”
Context of the Paper? • The aircraft can accurately achieve a time • Aircraft separation infringement risk at 5% • But does RTA approach work for a sequence?
Stockholm RTA trials 2006 et al.
Controlled Time of Arrival Spacing Analysis 2011.
Standard Arrivals to Melbourne Structured Terminal Area Each of the arrival paths to Melbourne is a published procedure issued by ATC and entered to the FMS prior to Top Of Descent If the cruise sequencing has been done correctly, the aircraft flies the STAR path to the threshold uninterrupted.
No. of operations per hour YMML R34 - 08 August 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
07-08-1214:00
07-08-1218:00
07-08-1222:00
08-08-1202:00
08-08-1206:00
08-08-1210:00
08-08-1214:00
UTC
No. o
f ope
ratio
ns /
hour
Arrivals Departures All
Normally Ops are Multiple Runway Strong Northerly on August 8th 2012
Demanded Single Runway Ops
Enroute Autonomously Achieve the AMAN Delay
00:18:03
20
WENDY
All Runways
ARBEY
All Runways
3 20 VOZ310 27 40
0 0 VHTJJ 34 36
1 3 VHOGL 34 34
1 3 VHZXA 16 30
-2 0 VHTJF 16 28
25
42 27 EA363 10 7
35 27 VHMZU 2 1
33 27 KD566 4 2
31 27 KD452 3 3
29 27 EA056 0 0
•Sequence Number
•Landing Runway
•Callsign
•Total Delay
•Delay Achieved
HORIZONTAL VIEW
WENDY
ARBEY
WAREN
LIZZI
BADGR
-41
-40
-39
-38
-37
-36
-35
-34
139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150
Longitude
Latit
ude
VOZ866
QFA451
VOZ278
VOZ868
JST971
JST451
VOZ1377
VOZ1331
QFA476
JST949
QFA457
VOZ870
MAS129
QFA692
QFA631
UAE407
VOZ874
QFA459
QFA833
VOZ342
QFA694
TGW623
RXA3683
VERTICAL VIEW
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Distance to Go (NM)
Flig
ht L
evel
VOZ866
QFA451
VOZ278
VOZ868
JST971
JST451
VOZ1377
VOZ1331
QFA476
JST949
QFA457
VOZ870
MAS129
QFA692
QFA631
UAE407
VOZ874
QFA459
QFA833
VOZ342
QFA694
TGW623
RXA3683
HORIZONTAL VIEW
WENDY
ARBEY
WAREN
LIZZI
BADGR
-41
-40
-39
-38
-37
-36
-35
-34
139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150
Longitude
Latit
ude
RXA3683
JST479
TFX152
VOZ236
QFA455
QFA463
VOZ878
QFA635
JST525
SQC7297
JST712
VOZ746
QFA483
CSN343
VOZ882
RBA53
TGW631
QFA465
VOZ346
QFA768
QFA134
QFA467
QTR030
VERTICAL VIEW
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Distance to Go (NM)
Flig
ht L
evel
RXA3683
JST479
TFX152
VOZ236
QFA455
QFA463
VOZ878
QFA635
JST525
SQC7297
JST712
VOZ746
QFA483
CSN343
VOZ882
RBA53
TGW631
QFA465
VOZ346
QFA768
QFA134
QFA467
QTR030
First Hour Traffic Actual Trajectories
Second Hour Traffic Actual Trajectories
Would the RTA Solution Work? Assumptions • Same traffic but different profiles • Aircraft to meet actual landing times • No lateral delay • 200nm sequencing horizon
Research Questions 1. Does the assumed 200NM sequence horizon provide
enough control authority for the FMS to use the RTA function?
2. What is the impact of airborne RTA control on legacy arrival manager systems on the ground?
3. Can the traditional “first-come-first-served” methodology still be applied?
4. How many conflicts do occur when CTAs are used in an arrival flow?
5. Can the application of CTA successfully resolve a sequence for an actual traffic scenario without controller intervention?
Fast-time simulation model • BADA 3.7 aerodynamic data
• Enhanced Trajectory Predictor
• Modeling of wind gradient • Modeling of turns • Modeling of non-ISA temperature profiles • Altitude based wind and temp. model • Modeling of Vertical Speed and/or Flight Path Angle • Modeling of Altitude and Speed Constraints
• Using real speed envelopes from Flight Crew Operating manuals
Simulation scenarios 1. Baseline scenario • recorded arrival flows into Melbourne airport within
200NM during 2 hour medium to high density operation 2. CTA scenario • initial conditions from baseline scenario • landing times of baseline applied as CTA • no lateral patch stretching
3. CTA + modified sequence scenario: • same as CTA scenario • freely allocation of landing slots to arriving aircraft
Linear holding 1/3
Step descent at low speed
Cruise
Path stretching
Linear holding 2/3 Additional time compared to 1h of cruise at FL370
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
200 250 300 350 400 450 500
TAS (kts)
FL
1h+30'
+5'
Linear holding 3/3
% fuel flow increase compared to minimum fuel flow for flight at green dot speed
Source: “Getting to grips with fuel economy”, Issue 3, July 2004, Airbus
HORIZONTAL VIEW
WENDY
ARBEY
WAREN
LIZZI
BADGR
-41
-40
-39
-38
-37
-36
-35
-34
139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150
Longitude
Latit
ude
VOZ866
QFA451
VOZ278
VOZ868
JST971
JST451
VOZ1377
VOZ1331
QFA476
JST949
QFA457
VOZ870
MAS129
QFA692
QFA631
UAE407
VOZ874
QFA459
QFA833
VOZ342
QFA694
TGW623
RXA3683
Results baseline 1
VERTICAL VIEW
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Distance to Go (NM)
Flig
ht L
evel
VOZ866
QFA451
VOZ278
VOZ868
JST971
JST451
VOZ1377
VOZ1331
QFA476
JST949
QFA457
VOZ870
MAS129
QFA692
QFA631
UAE407
VOZ874
QFA459
QFA833
VOZ342
QFA694
TGW623
RXA3683
Results baseline 1
HORIZONTAL VIEW
WENDY
ARBEY
WAREN
LIZZI
BADGR
-41
-40
-39
-38
-37
-36
-35
-34
139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150
Longitude
Latit
ude
VOZ866
QFA451
VOZ278
VOZ868
JST971
JST451
VOZ1377
VOZ1331
QFA476
JST949
QFA457
VOZ870
MAS129
QFA692
QFA631
UAE407
VOZ874
QFA459
QFA833
VOZ342
QFA694
TGW623
RXA3683
Results CTA 1
VERTICAL VIEW
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Distance to Go (NM)
Flig
ht L
evel
VOZ866
QFA451
VOZ278
VOZ868
JST971
JST451
VOZ1377
VOZ1331
QFA476
JST949
QFA457
VOZ870
MAS129
QFA692
QFA631
UAE407
VOZ874
QFA459
QFA833
VOZ342
QFA694
TGW623
RXA3683
Results CTA 1
HORIZONTAL VIEW
WENDY
ARBEY
WAREN
LIZZI
BADGR
-41
-40
-39
-38
-37
-36
-35
-34
139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150
Longitude
Latit
ude
VOZ866
VOZ868
VOZ278
QFA451
JST971
VOZ1377
VOZ1331
QFA476
JST451
JST949
MAS129
VOZ870
QFA692
UAE407
QFA457
QFA631
QFA459
VOZ874
QFA833
QFA694
VOZ342
TGW623
RXA3683
Results CTA + mod. seq. 1
VERTICAL VIEW
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Distance to Go (NM)
Flig
ht L
evel
VOZ866
VOZ868
VOZ278
QFA451
JST971
VOZ1377
VOZ1331
QFA476
JST451
JST949
MAS129
VOZ870
QFA692
UAE407
QFA457
QFA631
QFA459
VOZ874
QFA833
QFA694
VOZ342
TGW623
RXA3683
Results CTA + mod. seq. 1
HORIZONTAL VIEW
WENDY
ARBEY
WAREN
LIZZI
BADGR
-41
-40
-39
-38
-37
-36
-35
-34
139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150
Longitude
Latit
ude
RXA3683
JST479
TFX152
VOZ236
QFA455
QFA463
VOZ878
QFA635
JST525
SQC7297
JST712
VOZ746
QFA483
CSN343
VOZ882
RBA53
TGW631
QFA465
VOZ346
QFA768
QFA134
QFA467
QTR030
Results baseline 2
VERTICAL VIEW
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Distance to Go (NM)
Flig
ht L
evel
RXA3683
JST479
TFX152
VOZ236
QFA455
QFA463
VOZ878
QFA635
JST525
SQC7297
JST712
VOZ746
QFA483
CSN343
VOZ882
RBA53
TGW631
QFA465
VOZ346
QFA768
QFA134
QFA467
QTR030
Results baseline 2
HORIZONTAL VIEW
WENDY
ARBEY
WAREN
LIZZI
BADGR
-41
-40
-39
-38
-37
-36
-35
-34
139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150
Longitude
Latit
ude
RXA3683
JST479
TFX152
VOZ236
QFA455
QFA463
VOZ878
QFA635
JST525
SQC7297
JST712
VOZ746
QFA483
CSN343
VOZ882
RBA53
TGW631
QFA465
VOZ346
QFA768
QFA134
QFA467
QTR030
Results CTA 2
VERTICAL VIEW
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Distance to Go (NM)
Flig
ht L
evel
RXA3683
JST479
TFX152
VOZ236
QFA455
QFA463
VOZ878
QFA635
JST525
SQC7297
JST712
VOZ746
QFA483
CSN343
VOZ882
RBA53
TGW631
QFA465
VOZ346
QFA768
QFA134
QFA467
QTR030
Results CTA 2
HORIZONTAL VIEW
WENDY
ARBEY
WAREN
LIZZI
BADGR
-41
-40
-39
-38
-37
-36
-35
-34
139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150
Longitude
Latit
ude
RXA3683
VOZ236
JST479
QFA455
TFX152
QFA463
VOZ878
SQC7297
QFA635
JST525
VOZ746
JST712
CSN343
RBA53
VOZ882
QFA483
TGW631
QFA465
VOZ346
QFA768
QFA134
QFA467
QTR030
Results CTA + mod. seq. 2
VERTICAL VIEW
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Distance to Go (NM)
Flig
ht L
evel
RXA3683
VOZ236
JST479
QFA455
TFX152
QFA463
VOZ878
SQC7297
QFA635
JST525
VOZ746
JST712
CSN343
RBA53
VOZ882
QFA483
TGW631
QFA465
VOZ346
QFA768
QFA134
QFA467
QTR030
Results CTA + mod. seq. 2
Effect of ETA window
Reduced speed window ⇒ defining reliable ETAmin-max
Full speed window ⇒ defining real earliest-latest time window or real ETAmin-max
Quantification of results 2/2
CTA reliable ETA window
CTA real ETA window
CTA + mod. seq. real ETA window
Dev 01:19:45 00:39:16 00:10:12
AVG X 1.21 0.94 0.82
STD X 0.71 0.48 0.21
minmax
min
ETAETAETACTAX−
−=)ETACTA,0(MaxDev max−=
Conclusions 1/3 Simulation conditions:
• Single RWY operation in Melbourne • Real traffic sequence (45 aircraft during 2 hours) • Recorded positions and times at 200NM from Melbourne
during 2 hours
Using CTA and a modified sequence yielded: • Distance reduction of 484 NM (5%) • Fuel consumption reduction of 1317 kg (3%) • Fuel consumption reduction of 29 kg per aircraft
Conclusions 2/3 Operational implications:
• Application of CTA with modified arrival sequence produced
a more efficient and orderly flow of traffic, BUT… • RTA based speed control is unlikely to be sufficient to solve
a sequence of arriving aircraft in a high density scenario • Horizon of 200NM did not provide enough speed control
authority for all aircraft • Preconditioning (extended horizon) ⇒ ATC coordination! • Alternatively combined measures (speed control and linear
holding or path stretching) • “first-come, first-serve” ⇒ optimized CTA sequence • Reduced ETA window aggravated situation
Conclusions 3/3 Overall:
• Airborne RTA is one building block in the total solution to
Trajectory Based Ops • Combined Air and Ground systems approach • Mixed mode environment