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Drivers of Climate ChangeIPAT and more

The IntersectionBetween

Risk, Poverty, Resilience, Culture, and Technology(An IWAC vs. IPAT discussion)

• Different Cultures will have differential impacts due to what they value• Sociological pressures dictate a great deal about consumption• Ability to mitigate one’s ecological impact is the same as resilience• The risk/poverty nexus is the lack of resilience and ability to adapt• Our current system drives more and more people into poverty in post-

industrial countries• People are unable to mitigate their ecological impact due to not having the

resources to create alternative means to meet their needs.• Poverty creates environmental destruction, but affluence without

meaningful alternatives does as well

James Clark

What Determines the CO2 Levels of a Person in Different Countries?

3 Groups to compare to the USA– Austria & Norway – Poland & Romania– Ethiopia & India

Does switching to jobs in the service sector decrease CO2? What about industry & ag?

Does urbanization increase CO2? How far North? Human Development Index

Kathy Fioretti

The effects of education on climate change.

15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.00.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

CO2 Per capita as a function of education attainment

Percemtage of Population with Bachelors Degree or Higher

CO2

Out

put i

n M

etric

Ton

s

Rick Arndt

IPAT model to balance globalization Impacts.

• [(CO2 from external dirty industry jobs.) + (US CO2)] – (Technology Gains) = (Environmental Impact)

• To more evenly share the burden of CO2 the ratio of consumer spending needs to be considered.

• This means that the CO2 output lies heaviest on those with higher education levels.

Rick Arndt

The effects of education on climate change.

• If we want to lower emissions we must begin by teaching students at the most basic levels of education.

• Urban centers can use community gardens to prevent environmental detachment.

• Social policies in other countries geared towards retaining their newly educated can help the technological bottleneck.

• Sustainable ideologies can be implemented at institutions. • Climate change topics in college courses help reduce

consumption rates.

Rick Arndt

CO2/Capita

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 201110.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

CO2 Emissions Per Person

KentuckyMississippiNorth CarolinaVirginiaAverage all states

Year

CO2

by M

etri

c To

ns

Percent Absolute

-30-25-20-15-10

-50

Change in CO2 Emissions Per Person

KentuckyMississippiNorth CarolinaVirginiaAverage all states

Am

ount

of C

hang

e

Independent Variables Driving Impacts: Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, Virginia

Jack Marder

Technology

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011200.00300.00400.00500.00600.00700.00800.00900.00

1,000.001,100.001,200.00

Technology- CO2/GDP

KentuckyMississippiNorth CarolinaVirginiaAverage all states

YearMet

ric

Tons

of C

O2/

Mill

ion

$ G

DP

Independent Variables Driving Impacts: Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, Virginia

Jack Marder

19841985

19861987

19881989

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20100

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

Total of CO2 emissions – South America Countries

Argentina

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Uruguay

Venezuela, RB

kt

Hugo Rafael Chavez

Income, Emissions, GDP, and Population: China vs India

Total Population

Category China's Growth Rate India's Growth RateTotal CO2 Emissions 1074% 1029%

CO2 Emissions (kg per 2005 US$ of GDP)CO2/person (metric tons per capita)

CO2 Emissions (kt)/gdp per capitaGDP (constant 2005 US$)

Income (GDP/person)217%

30%657%49%

3572%2185%163%

126%474%273%820%378%

Tucker Billman

Kristina Nesterenko

Kristina Nesterenko

Climate Change ImpactsAnd Vulnerability

Sea Level Rise- Bangladesh

Clayton Coyne

What makes a community vulnerable?

• Factors of Vulnerability • Factors of Adaptive Capacity • Real-World Application

Dalton Fusco

What determines vulnerability? A case study of Bangladesh and Switzerland

• Regional factors • Coastal vs inland• Arid vs Wet Climates

• Sociocultural• Adaptive capacity• Demography• Organization

• Economic• Rich vs poor

Ashleigh Angel

Is Colonialism a Determinant of Climate Change Vulnerability?

Climate Change Vulnerability

DARA 2012

Dependent Variable: Climate Change Vulnerability

Independent Variables: Social Indicators of Vulnerability 1) Affluence 2) Human Health Sensitivity 3) Infrastructure 4) Institutions

DARA 2012

Vulnerability Breakdown

Chloe Talbert

Renewable Energy and Climate Change

Renewable Energy• Why Renewable Energy?• What is Renewable Energy?• Examples• Cost• Window of Opportunity

Daulton Hanks

Electric and Hybrid Electric Vehicle Adoption Rates based on Government Incentive Programs.United States. Up to $7500 tax credit per vehicle, limit 200,000 vehicles bought on or after 2010. Credit is based on battery size.

Norway. Exemptions for electric vehicles: 25% purchase tax, road tax, parking, tolls, and can use bus lanes for electric. Plug-in Hybrid get less exemptions because taxes are assets by vehicle weight.

Jake Kennedy

Correlation Between Political Party and Renewable Energy Policies.

Republican v. Democratic States in the 2012 Presidential Election States that have RPS goals/policies.

Nicholas Sanchez

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '120.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

Emissions/Person Index

KentuckyTennesseeNorth Carolina (RPS)West Virginia (RPS)

Do Renewable Portfolio Standards Make A Difference?

North Carolina adopted RPS in 2007

West Virginia adopted RPS in 2009

State RPS Political Party GDP (millions) GDP/Capita PopulationKentucky no Republican $177,967 $33,519 4,395,295Tennessee no Republican $280,485 $37,254 6,495,978West Virginia Standard Republican $69,711 $30,389 1,854,304North Carolina Standard Republican $452,350 $40,289 9,848,060

Criteria for Chosen States

Nicole Walbridge

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Percent Renewable Consumption

Arkansas (no RPS) Kentucky (no RPS) West Virginia (Standards) Ohio (Standards) Oklahoma (Goals) Indiana (Goals)

Research Question: Are RPS standards or goals a more successful policy for reducing CO2 emissions? Dependent Variable: Type or structure of policy Independent Variable: Success of policy

Marla Waters

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sustainable Energy Alternatives in Southeast Asia

• Current environmental technology and energy sources utilized in Southeast Asia are unsustainable and harmful to the environment

• Urbanization and outsourcing of emissions to southeast Asia are also responsible for growing emissions

• IPAT equation in regard to Southeast Asia (specifically Indonesia– Energy alternatives need to be introduced to lower emissions and provide a

framework for a more environmentally friendly agenda for this region– Cleaner energy alternatives, better environmental policy, and adopting new

technology can pave the way for a more sustainable future– Examples of countries in the region that have shown progress: Singapore,

Malaysia, etc.

Isabella Shaulis

Cap and Trade vs a Carbon Tax• Comparing the two by price, amount of emissions

reduction, and likeliness of implication. • Price: Carbon tax in Washington start out at $10/tCO2,

increases by $5/tCO2, cpas at $30/tCO2. For cap and trade it depends on the market, can be big shifts in price depending on demand.

• Emissions reduction: Carbon tax will bring about an 8.4% decrease by 2035. Cap and trade will lead to a 60 million ton reduction by 2020.

• Likeliness of implication: Carbon taxes are much more simple than cap and trade.

Emma Rubottom

Climate Change PolicyLocal to Global

Argument

• corporations want to change the law because they are resource and profit dependent .because they are dependent on profit so they try to change the law. when the law is changed the pollution rate will go even higher the more they produce the more profit they will make.

• IV: corporate Lobbying is when corporations use their money to gain power to change the environmental law

• DV: Is looking at the pollution rate. the pollution rate will increase the more companies are lobbying. Increase in lobbying equals a decrease in Env. protection rates pollution rates go up

Elgin Cook

Better mitigation method – carbon tax or cap-and-trade?• What is key is a cap

• Everything can be put into place (i.e. high regulatory standards, tax regulations) and emissions will still grow

• Why?• A cap acts as a roof, sets a guaranteed

limit• Also pushes what’s not ‘under the roof,

out’ and forces what is ‘under the roof’ to do more

• However, a hybrid system will work the best

• Allows for best of both methods to work• A cap to produce a ‘roof’ and a tax to

provide a ‘floor”

Durning, A. 2009. “Cap and trade 101: a federal climate policy primer. Seattle, WA: Sightline Institute.”

Spencer Smith

Government Institutions and Climate ChangeAre democratic or authoritarian regimes better suited to combat climate change?

• I=PAT Equation to measure total impact.

• Compared across multiple democratic and authoritarian regimes in regards to each variable

• Conclusion: • Both democratic and authoritarian regimes have advantages and disadvantages

with respect to each variable in addressing climate change.

Why is this important?• Policy implications• International negotiations

Adam Gould

Climate Change Unilateralism among cities: A question of Realized Co-benefits

Durban vs. Khara Hais and George in South Africa

Miles Gordon

European Union and United States Environmental Action

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

5

10

15

20

25

CO2 Per Capita

Germany UK France SpainItaly Turkey US

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

50000000

100000000

150000000

200000000

250000000

300000000

350000000

Population Totals

Germany UK France SpainItaly Turkey US Big 5

Travis Bilyeu

(http://www.who.int/globalchange/publications/climatechangechap7.pdf)

Climate Change has an impact on the environment and directly effects people’s health. The main question here is what countries are most vulnerable to these kinds of health issues and diseases?

Malaria

Clayton Crum