1

Coveted Industry Insight Opportunities

+ Challenges

+Limitations

PV industry

"I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy.What a source of power!

I hope we don't have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”

-Thomas Edison1931

2

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 -

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

Solar Based Generation

Price of Solar (PV) PowerRs

. / k

Wh

Source | EPIA 3

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 -

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

Solar Based Generation

Rs. /

kW

h

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 -

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

Coal Based Generation

Parity with Coal based power

Parity with Coal

2026

Source | EPIA + CRISIL 4

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 -

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

Solar Based Generation

Rs. /

kW

h

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 -

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

Gas Based Gen-eration

Parity with Gas based power

Parity with Gas

2019

Source | EPIA + CRISIL 5

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 -

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

Gas Based Gen-eration

Coal Based Generation

Solar Based Generation

Grid ParityRs

. / k

Wh

Source | EPIA + CRISIL 6

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 -

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

Solar Based Generation

Rs. /

kW

h

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Global cumulative Installed Capacity

Global Cumulative Capacity

Source | EPIA + Greenpeace 7

GW

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 -

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

Solar Based Generation

-

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1,000.00

1,200.00

Global cumulative Installed Capacity

8

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Indian Cumulative Installed Capacity

Cumulative capacity Global v/s IndiaRs

. / k

Wh

Source | EPIA + Greenpeace

GW

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 -

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

Solar Based Generation

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Indian Cumulative Installed Capacity

Indian Cumulative capacityRs

. / k

Wh

Source | EPIA + Greenpeace 9

GW

OpportunitiesIndian Market

20 GW of PV by 20201

Investment of ~ $50 bn2

This to actualize would need…

.…per year till 2020

8420

20,000

MnMntonnes

Modules (250 Wp)CellsPolysilicon Feedstock

1 EPIA Generation VI 2 Assuming $ 2.5/ Wpsource

10

Market SegmentGrid Connected(13 GW)

• Utility Scale Plants

• Roof top

Off grid (4 GW)

• Captive Industrial Use

• Substitution of DG Sets

• Micro Grid

Rural Off grid (3 GW)

• Rural Electrification

• Rural Applications

Micro - finance

Subsidies and

Schemes

FiTs +Funding by Various

Financial Institutions

+Trading RECs

11

• 252,685 Cell towers currently run on Diesel1

– 50% powered by PV (≈ 2.5GW)

• 76 mn Un-Electrified households2

– 2-3% connected by Off- grid PV (≈ 2GW)

• Captive Industrial use of Diesel (8,648 MW)3

– Replacing 15% by 2020 (≈ 1.3 GW)

• Rural applications – 20 million lighting systems (≈ 1GW)

Decentralized Distribution Generation / Off-grid

Uses of PV (Rural India)

Electrifying homes, Villages, CSCs

Power SmallIndustries

Telecommunication (PV/Diesel Hybrid)

Water supply and irrigation

1. Annual report Dept. of Telecom2. Towards India Evergreen. India Infrastructure Report 3i3. CEA. “All India Electricity Statistics: General Review 2009.” New Delhi

source

12

Transmission & Distribution (T&D)

T&D dependent applications

Grid• Utility scale• Industrial• Roof-top• Tail end

65%(13 GW)

Few

Resilience by clustering the projects in land pockets- Need to manage grid at multiple

locations

T&D independent applications

Off- Grid• Rural electrification• Replacing DG sets• Power small industries• Irrigation

35%(7 GW)

Large

Can be connected to grid atany point in time once itStrengthens

Types

Capacities

Projects

Setup

13

Reforms in the Rural Sector

Reforms AchievedTarget

Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana

(RGGVY)

Village Energy Security Programme

(VESP)

Remote Village Electrification

(RVE)

Electrify 125,000 villages 23.4 million BPL households

to be connected

Villages between 25–200 households

Electrification of villages with 300+ inhabitants

84,618 villages electrified12+ million BPL households

connected

80 test projects approved54 commissioned

6,867hamlets and villages

14

2000 - 01 2001 - 02 2002 - 03 2003 - 04 2004 - 05 2005 - 06 2006 - 07 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 100

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

cumulative no of villages electri-fied

Pace of Rural Electrification

Annual Report – Rural Electrification Corporation source

15

No.

of v

illag

es e

lect

rified

Technologies

Thin Film

CSP

C-Si

C-Si

Thin Film

CSP

CSP

C-Si

Thin Film

• Efficient in high temperature and diffused sunlight situations• Average daily energy generation could effectively be more than c-Si • Avg daily energy generation observed- 3141 kWH1

• Suited Application • For sites where land is not a constraint

• Well established solution > 80% of PV installations• Avg. daily energy generation observed- 3012 kWH2 • Most economical solution where land is scarce• Suited Application

• Best solution for Rooftop systems • Hybrid with Diesel Gensets for telcom towers

• Offers energy storage capability• Viable solution for nighttime peak demand and base load requirements • Availability of water might be a constraining factor• Suited Application

• Hybrid with conventional thermal system

1. Chandrapur Thin film Plant2. Asansol c-Si plant

source16

• Financing– ≈ $50 Billion required over the next 10 years (Equity + Debt)

• Lack of trained manpower– 1,00,000 trained and specialized personnel required

• Grid extension per km*

– Between $8,000 and $10,000– $22,000 in difficult terrains

• Up-gradation to Smart Grid– Could reduce need for storage and cut investment by 30-40%

Challenges

* World Bank studysource

17

18

Thank You

“Find purpose, the means will follow”